The Downballot

On the latest edition of Nir & Rupar, our live weekly video show, David Nir of The Downballot and Aaron Rupar of Public Notice talk with Taegan Goddard, founder of the must-read site Political Wire. You can become a Political Wire subscriber by clicking the button just below:On the show, Taegan tells us:* How a feature in the Wall Street Journal inspired him to create his own news site—all the way back in 1999.* How he handles the daily firehose of news to deliver pithy summaries for the hardcore news junkies who rely on his work.* Why businesses and investors who imagine they can plan around Trump’s erratic tariff policies are deluding themselves.And much more!If you missed our livestream, you can watch it by clicking above! You can also find a complete transcript by clicking here and looking for the “Transcript” button.Nir & Rupar goes live every Friday at 2 PM ET. The easiest way to participate is by downloading the free Substack app.Folks who are paid subscribers to either of our publications can participate in our Q&A!If you haven’t yet subscribed to Public Notice, which offers insightful and independent commentary on U.S. politics and media, click the button below:And if you haven’t yet subscribed to The Downballot, which provides unparalleled coverage of the thousands of critical elections below the presidency, sign up below: Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

At long, long, long last, Republicans have abandoned their effort to overturn the election for North Carolina's Supreme Court—which took place all the way back in November. We've closely followed every twist and turn, so naturally we're exploring what it all means, both for Democrats and democracy, on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast.And joining us as our guest is Matt Hildreth, executive director of Rural Organizing, who tells us how Democrats can actually succeed in rural areas—and the common pitfalls they face. Hildreth says that "the messenger matters more than the message" and emphasizes two huge issues of overriding importance to rural voters: housing and child care. He also explains how Donald Trump's tariffs, which are disproportionately impacting farmers, create an opening for Democrats this year and next. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

On the latest edition of Nir & Rupar, our live weekly video show, David Nir of The Downballot and Aaron Rupar of Public Notice talk with data journalist G. Elliott Morris all about Trump’s sagging job approval ratings.Elliott, who previously ran the seminal site 538, recently launched his own Substack, Strength In Numbers, which you can subscribe to here:On the show, Elliott tells us:* Why history suggests Trump’s numbers could go much lower by the midterms—and could even put the Senate in play.* How nearly all data we rely on to understand politics—from polls to job reports—are based on estimates that are subject to error and can often change.* How Democrats have helped sink Trump’s popularity on the last issue that had been his strength, immigration.And much more!If you missed our livestream, you can watch it by clicking above! You can also find a complete transcript by clicking here and looking for the “Transcript” button.Nir & Rupar goes live every Friday at 2 PM ET. The easiest way to participate is by downloading the free Substack app.Folks who are paid subscribers to either of our publications can participate in our Q&A!If you haven’t yet subscribed to Public Notice, which offers insightful and independent commentary on U.S. politics and media, click the button below:And if you haven’t yet subscribed to The Downballot, which provides unparalleled coverage of the thousands of critical elections below the presidency, sign up below: Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

The Virginia GOP is in the midst of a meltdown after the state's governor demanded a fellow Republican running for lieutenant governor quit the race—even though he's the only candidate running. We're examining the mess on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, as well as another big story out of the Old Dominion: longtime Democratic Rep. Gerry Connolly's retirement and what it means for his perch atop the House Oversight Committee.The Davids also dive deep into their favorite topic—North Carolina politics—with Rob Schofield, editor of the invaluable NC Newsline. Schofield explains how his organization grew to fill a gap left by vanishing traditional media and shares his insights on all the major stories unfolding in his home state. On the docket: Gov. Josh Stein's unusually placid relationship with GOP lawmakers; Justice Allison Riggs' unusual post-election campaign for public support; and Sen. Thom Tillis' unusual start in politics. You're sensing the theme for this most unusual of states! Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

The Downballot is thrilled to announce the publication of the newest edition of our most widely used—and beloved—set of data: our calculations of the 2024 presidential election results for all 435 congressional districts. Naturally, we're talking all about it on this week's edition of our podcast, including why it's such a herculean undertaking and what the numbers tell us. Most important of all, the data points the way to the races that will form the central battleground in the clash for control of the House next year.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also discuss the fallout from Dick Durbin's retirement in Illinois; a favorable ruling for Democrat Allison Riggs in the never-ending litigation over last year's race for the North Carolina Supreme Court; and why Donald Trump's hilarious decision to issue a dual endorsement in Arizona is bad news for Republicans. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Philip Bump, for many years an important voice at the Washington Post, joins us on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast to share our mutual love of nerding out on numbers. Philip explains how he translates abstract data for a broad audience, going into detail on some surprising findings regarding turnout and special elections. He also explores how the second Trump administration differs from the first and concludes that public opinion likely has not yet caught up to the reality of just how different things are.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also bring listeners up to speed on the latest developments in the never-ending litigation over North Carolina's Supreme Court race, which—for the first time in a long time—just brought some good news for Democrat Allison Riggs. And the Davids take a look at Iowa, where a GOP governor's surprise retirement might create a rare opening for Democrats. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Liberals won a massive victory in last week's pivotal battle for the Wisconsin Supreme Court, but the public saw precious little polling data that projected a blowout. Joining us on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast is pollster Margie Omero of GBAO, whose internal polling nailed Judge Susan Crawford's 10-point margin. Democrats hedged their bets, though, by modeling two different electorates—one redder and one bluer. Omero tells us why the latter won out, including the role that Elon Musk played in motivating Crawford's supporters.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also explain why everyone needs to be prepared for a Senate map that winds up a lot more competitive than it might look on paper. With that backdrop, the Davids dive into a trio of major developments on the Senate front over the last week, including a notable Democrat jumping in in North Carolina; a MAGA favorite challenging a Republican incumbent in Texas; and the GOP's best recruit declining a bid in North Carolina. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Tuesday night was a massive triumph for the forces of democracy, from coast to coast and up and down the ballot. We're recapping all of the action in this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, starting with Wisconsin's marquee race for the state Supreme Court and the very real possibility that Elon Musk's aggressive intrusion into the contest wound up helping Susan Crawford preserve liberals' narrow majority.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also examine the huge Democratic overperformances in two ruby-red Florida House districts, which show that Republicans were right to fear losing Elise Stefanik's seat in a special election. But that's not all: Democrats racked up big wins in a wide range of other races (Omaha! Aurora! Winnebago!), all of which the Davids recap. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

The crazy flips just keep on coming! On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard drill down into James Malone's astonishing victory in Tuesday's special election in Pennsylvania—one that saw him capture a seat Democrats had never held. They also preview next week's races in Florida, where Republicans are suddenly sweating another special election, and, of course, Wisconsin, which will hold a long-awaited election that will determine control of the state Supreme Court.The Davids also delve into the world of digital advertising with Mark Jablonowski, an Obama veteran and the president of DSPolitical. Jablonowski reveals the inner workings of online ads, which have become an increasingly important part of every modern campaign. He specifically explains how even the smallest campaigns he works with can target voters in sophisticated ways to urge them to the polls—a roster that includes none other than James Malone. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Chuck Schumer and the handful of Senate Democrats who stood with him have faced unprecedented backlash for caving to Republicans on their budget bill last Friday, so we're pulling out our Geiger counters and assessing the fallout on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explain why Schumer's biggest failure was his hamfisted execution of an already questionable strategy. But it's not just the lingering anger Democrats need to worry about: Similar fights are coming up in Congress later this year, and they need to be much better prepared next time.The Davids also dive into a new plan from Kansas Republicans to bend the state Supreme Court to their will—and warn that, if next year's vote on the GOP's amendment turns into another referendum on abortion, it's likely doomed. They also highlight why a burgeoning effort in New Hampshire to finally end the state's last-in-the-nation primary is a very good thing, and one that other stragglers should follow. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe