Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan: Polls vs. Prediction Markets 11/07/24

In the week leading up to election day, presidential election contracts on Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt all indicated Donald Trump had a wider lead ahead of Kamala Harris than traditional polls. In his first-ever TV interview, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan discusses his company’s role in elections and the rising popularity of prediction markets, which allow bettors to wager on election outcomes. The Wall Street Journal’s Tim Higgins highlights Elon Musk’s influence among young men, saying Musk gave them “purpose” in voting for Trump. Plus, the House race remains uncalled, smart ring maker Oura is out with a new report on election day stress levels, and Wall Street awaits the Federal Reserve’s next rate cut decision. Shayne Coplan - 14:51Tim Higgins - 32:15 In this episode: Shayne Coplan, @shayne_coplanTim Higgins, @timkhigginsBecky Quick, @BeckyQuickJoe Kernen, @JoeSquawkAndrew Ross Sorkin, @andrewrsorkinCameron Costa, @CameronCostaNY

Another Trump administration might mean big changes to America’s financial system. Scott Bessent, economic advisor to Trump and potential Treasury Secretary pick, shares insights on Trump’s proposed tariffs and a red Senate. Plus, Bessent discusses his behind-the-scenes role in shaping Trump’s economic policies.Bessent - 03:33In this episode:Becky Quick, @BeckyQuickJoe Kernen, @JoeSquawkAndrew Ross Sorkin, @andrewrsorkinKatie Kramer, @Kramer_Katie

What are the market implications of a potential "red sweep" in the 2024 election? Billionaire private equity investor and Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein offers his take on what the outcome could mean for the country’s economic future and the markets. Plus, Rubenstein weighs in on the challenges ahead, from tackling the national deficit to navigating political divisions.Rubenstein - 03:42In this episode:David Rubenstein, @DM_RubensteinBecky Quick, @BeckyQuickJoe Kernen, @JoeSquawkAndrew Ross Sorkin, @andrewrsorkinKatie Kramer, @Kramer_Katie

In this special episode, we dive deep into morning-after analysis of the 2024 election. How did former President Donald Trump pull off his win? Investment banker Roger Altman breaks down the campaign’s winning argument, pointing to a crucial shift in voter sentiment: "Are you better off than you were four years ago?" Plus, pollster Frank Luntz weighs in on the unwavering support behind Trump and what that means for the future of American politics. He also offers Democrats some advice to move forward.Altman - 04:32Luntz - 20:53In this episode:Frank Luntz, @FrankLuntzBecky Quick, @BeckyQuickJoe Kernen, @JoeSquawkAndrew Ross Sorkin, @andrewrsorkinKatie Kramer, @Kramer_Katie

The 2024 presidential election has come to a dramatic close. CNBC’s Senior Washington Correspondent, Eamon Javers, discusses President Trump's stunning electoral victory and the shifting balance of power in Washington. Plus, CNBC’s DC Correspondent, Emily Wilkins, with the latest on the Senate flip that’s reshaping Capitol Hill. Javers - 03:10Wilkins - 13:25In this episode:Emily Wilkins, @emrwilkinsEamon Javers, @EamonJaversBecky Quick, @BeckyQuickJoe Kernen, @JoeSquawkAndrew Ross Sorkin, @andrewrsorkinKatie Kramer, @Kramer_Katie

Election day 2024 is finally here! Voters across the country head to the polls today, but results may take longer than 24 hours to confirm. If the race is close, Al Gore’s 2000 campaign chairman Bill Daley tells Americans, have faith in the process! The former chief of staff for President Obama expects to have a sense of the returns on Wednesday morning. Plus, Boeing machinists approved a labor deal, ending the seven-week strike, a judge has rejected a request to block Elon Musk's daily giveaway to Pennsylvania voters, a Wall Street Journal report says Russia is suspected of plotting to sell incendiary devices to U.S.-bound planes, and Fox sold out its Super Bowl ad inventory at record pricing. Daley - 20:33 In this episode:Eamon Javers, @EamonJaversBecky Quick, @BeckyQuickJoe Kernen, @JoeSquawkAndrew Ross Sorkin, @andrewrsorkinKatie Kramer, @Kramer_Katie

In the final 24 hours until election day, media mogul Barry Diller, chairman of IAC and Expedia, discusses the state of the race and his support for Kamala Harris. He says if Harris wins, she should consider asking Elon Musk to serve on her cabinet to help with cutting government costs. Diller also weighs in on the likelihood of an Uber-Expedia deal and a Comcast spin-off. Plus, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is swapping Intel and Dow Inc for Nvidia and Sherman Williams, a Semafor report says policymakers have begun discussing whether Intel needs more assistance, Berkshire Hathaway sold another chunk of its Apple stake, and Salesforce Co-founder Marc Benioff is in talks to sell media company Time. Barry Diller - 16:34 In this episode:Becky Quick, @BeckyQuickJoe Kernen, @JoeSquawkAndrew Ross Sorkin, @andrewrsorkinKatie Kramer, @Kramer_Katie

Oil giant Exxon Mobil reported quarterly results today that beat expectations. Ahead of the presidential election next week, Exxon CEO Darren Woods discusses oil prices, supply and demand, tariffs, Donald Trump’s “drill baby drill” perspective, and the California lawsuit over Exxon’s plastics waste. Next, Arthur Brooks, author and AEI president emeritus, gives a mood check on the country as we head into the election. He says, don’t let the election “ruin your life.” Plus, shares of Amazon and Intel are rising after earnings beat estimates, Boeing and its machinist union have negotiated a new contract offer, Sony is suing CBS over game show revenue from Jeopardy and Wheel of Fortune, and economists are parsing a “noisy” jobs report.  Darren Woods - 14:40Arthurt Brooks - 34:30 In this episode: Arthur Brooks, @arthurbrooksBecky Quick, @BeckyQuickJoe Kernen, @JoeSquawkAndrew Ross Sorkin, @andrewrsorkinKatie Kramer, @Kramer_Katie

After leaving Chipotle to lead Starbucks, CEO Brian Niccol has a plan to turn the iconic coffee brand around. Niccol sat for an exclusive interview with Andrew Ross Sorkin after his first eight weeks at the helm of Starbucks; he’s learning from three straight quarters of declining sales and implementing menu, pricing, and timing changes to the coffee chain. Next, SharkNinja manufactures appliances like robot vacuums, air fryers and ice cream makers, and CEO Mark Barrocas says, those are just the beginning. He discusses the company’s diversification and the impact tariffs could have on his business. Plus, a district attorney ordered Elon Musk to attend an emergency court hearing over his pledge to award $1 million to registered voters in Pennsylvania, eBay’s current quarter guidance fell short of expectations, and Comcast is exploring a separation of its cable networks business. Brian Niccol - 12:21Mark Barrocas - 24:12 In this episode:Becky Quick, @BeckyQuickJoe Kernen, @JoeSquawkAndrew Ross Sorkin, @andrewrsorkinCameron Costa, @CameronCostaNY

Silicon Valley is split over the 2024 US Presidential election - Elon Musk and Mark Cuban are making waves, while Mark Zuckerberg has chosen to sit this one out. Chris Kelly, Kelly Investments founder and former Facebook general counsel and chief privacy officer, discusses the role of business leaders in this election, the future of Crypto, and Kelly’s support for Vice President Kamala Harris. CNBC’s Robert Frank reports on shares of Trump Media and its rollercoaster trading session. Trump owns nearly 57% of the company, which operates the Truth Social platform. His stake at Monday’s closing price was worth upward of $5.4 billion. Plus, Reddit’s bet on AI pays off and Starbucks ditches its olive-oil infused coffee.Chris Kelly - 2:27In this episode:Robert Frank, @robtfrankBecky Quick, @BeckyQuickJoe Kernen, @JoeSquawkAndrew Ross Sorkin, @andrewrsorkinKatie Kramer, @Kramer_Katie