Rough Consensus with Checkmate

G’day Folks,The world is working its way through a very interesting rotation of capital, with the US bond market being a primary recipient. In many ways, this runs counter to Bitcoin intuition, since who in their right mind would want to lend a government money?To talk through these dynamics, we welcome my friend Nik Bhatia of the Bitcoin Layer to the podcast.Nik has a wealth of experience analysing, trading and investing in the bond market, and uses the price signals as a key input into how he measures liquidity. Nik is also a student of markets, and has recently published his second book, titled Bitcoin Age, exploring how he sees Bitcoin fitting into the world on the road ahead.In this conversation, we cover concepts related to the bond market, the US dollar, global liquidity, Bitcoin, and the relationship between the US Treasury and Federal Reserve.I learned a lot from this conversation, and we will no doubt have Nik back on before long.Other Ways To ListenYoutube:Spotify (available ~1 hr after article is published)Apple Podcasts (available ~1 hour after article is published)Thanks for watching,James This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit newsletter.checkonchain.com/subscribe

G’day Folks,A few weeks back, I prepared a piece titled Securing the Bag, where I laid out my thoughts on Bitcoins proof-of-work security model, and how I expect it to play out long term. Everything from the declining security budget, to the risk of a nation state 51% attack.Off the back of this, I had the great pleasure of talking through many these dynamics with Bob Burnett of Barefoot Mining. Bob has thought extremely deeply about the mining industry, and is someone who has a great respect for Bitcoin as a network, and its importance in the future.Mining is one of the least understood sectors of the Bitcoin network, and is full of so much nuance, that it can take quite a lot of work to properly wrap your head around it. My hope is that this conversation will both help answer some of those questions, offer up ideas to ponder, and leave you with even more questions that pique your curiosity.I thoroughly enjoyed this conversation, Bob was a great guest, and I have no doubt we will do this again. Other Ways To ListenYoutube:Spotify (available ~1 hr after article is published)Apple Podcasts (available ~1 hour after article is published)Thanks for watching,James This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit newsletter.checkonchain.com/subscribe

G’day Folks,Today I had the great pleasure of talking with Travis Kling from Ikigai Asset Management, and having a conversation that was long overdue. I have followed Travis for many years now, and he has no shortage of experience analysing, and observing how this weird market trades.Way back in 2019, Ikigai prepared a repository of onchain analysis papers called Kana & Katana. Yours truly downloaded every single one of these as a PDF, printed them off at work, and read each of them over and over, absorbing what was at the time the cutting edge of onchain analysis.My friends didn’t understand, but it felt very important…In this conversation, we go down loads of rabbit holes, from the new American administration, to Bitcoins role as a macro asset, and the divergence between BTC and broader crypto. Travis has a keen eye for how the technological, social, and market dynamics of Bitcoin and crypto intersect, and the time of this podcast is no coincidence.I think you’re really going to enjoy this one, and we managed to hit several of Travis’ famous one liners!Other Ways To ListenYoutube:Spotify (available ~1 hr after article is published)Apple Podcasts (available ~1 hour after article is published)Thanks for watching,James This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit newsletter.checkonchain.com/subscribe

G’day Folks,I was delighted to catch up with Larry Lepard once again to talk about his new book The Big Print. Having monitored and invested in markets for many decades, Larry has an incredible depth of knowledge and experience, and a real knack for telling the story from his unique perspective. Larry has put considerable thought into the cause and effect dynamics of fiat money, central banks, and the impact that debasement has on the purchasing power of the average person.The Big Print is a story of US financial history, laying out just how big the problem is, and why sound money assets like gold and Bitcoin can help investors navigate what is likely to be a tumultuous process.This was a cracker of a conversation, and I am looking forward to reading my copy of The Big Print, which I have on order as we speak. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit newsletter.checkonchain.com/subscribe

Today, we're releasing the latest edition of the Rough Consensus podcast with Jeff Walton (@PunterJeff) covering our thinking about MicroStrategy.Jeff was very early to the MSTR trade, and has done an extraordinary amount of work thinking through the problem. I am a huge fan of analysts who do the Proof of Work, and as we know in Bitcoin, the obvious answer is often not the correct one.We analyse the strategy that Saylor is putting into play, as well as discuss the many nuances of the various metrics and models for thinking about the MSTR trade. We cover how we think about this asset in both bull and bear markets, and why it creates such a remarkable level of confusion amongst market commentators.I’m still very early in my MSTR journey, but I find it a truly fascinating motivator for helping me process how financial markets really work under the hood. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit newsletter.checkonchain.com/subscribe

G’day Folks,Today I jumped on the phone with Murad Mahmudov, who has been around the Bitcoin and onchain world for a very long time. Back in 2018, Murad was the guest on a podcast with Pomp titled the Ultimate Bitcoin Argument, which was one of the key orange pill moments for me personally. I highly encourage everyone who hasn’t heard this discussion, to add it to your listening list.Murad was also the original co-creator of the MVRV Ratio, alongside David Puell, two of the original onchain thinkers, from whom I have learned a great deal.In this podcast, we start with Bitcoin and its role as a monetary asset. We also venture into the weird and wacky world of meme coins. Now, I know a majority of the Checkonchain audience are Bitcoiners at heart, however I encourage you to think beyond the silliness of the tokens, and think about how Murad frames up modern market structure.Whilst I personally am not an altcoin, nor memecoin investor, I still find the intellectual exercise of thinking through why crypto markets value certain idea more than others fascinating. In my opinion, the crypto world has rebuilt, bug-for-bug, many of the systems which underpin Wall Street and global finance. They offer us a lens into how the incentives behind the fiat system led to it becoming what it is today, just on an accelerated timeline.Think beyond the tokens, and try and consider how the emergence of memecoins represents a social, and cultural shift, and a direct reaction to the VC funded techno-babel nonsense which is all too prevalent in the crypto world.I found this conversation really helped solidify many of the ideas and reason why the broader crypto market trades the way it does, and paints a unique picture for how capital rotation may or may not evolve this round.I’d love to hear your thoughts in this one, so let me know in the comments if any light-bulbs go off during this conversation (and what you agree/disagree with).Thanks for listening!JamesOther ways to listen:Spotify (available ~1 hr after article is published on Substack)Apple Podcasts (available ~1 hour after article is published on Substack)Youtube:Disclaimer: This podcast is general in nature, and is for informational, and entertainment purposes only, and it shall not be relied upon for any investment or financial decisions. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit newsletter.checkonchain.com/subscribe

G’day Folks,I had the great pleasure of meeting Alex Thorn in Nashville, where we were joined by Dylan LeClaire to discuss whether the 4yr Bitcoin cycle is likely to persist. This is a question I get all the time, and one which I am still processing my own thoughts around.After listening to a tremendous monologue by Alex on the Galaxy Brains podcast (recommended add to the rotation), I had to pick his brains on how market structure and cycles are likely to evolve in the years ahead.In this conversation, we go down numerous rabbit holes, including:Our broad overview of the Bitcoin and crypto landscape.Headwinds and opportunities facing the industry.Analysis of the major BTC sell-side entities over the last 6 months.The impact of ETFs, futures and options.Whether the 4yr cycle is likely to persist, or has it already broken?Key catalysts to watch out for now and in the future.This was a cracking conversation, and I hope you enjoy it as much as I did. If so, please consider sharing the episode and giving us a rating on Spotify/Apple Podcasts, as it helps more folks find our work. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit newsletter.checkonchain.com/subscribe

G’day Folks,Permabull Nino is one of my oldest friends in the Bitcoin industry. The two of us cut our teeth together studying and developing onchain tools and metrics over many years. PB has an accounting background, and currently works as an analyst and trader for SpaceWhale Capital. He has a wealth of experience working with derivatives, and assessing how capital rotates through the crypto markets.PB is actually a co-founder of the original iteration of the Rough Consensus podcast, which was one of our ‘stay sane during COVID’ projects. We both worked as contractors for the Decred project at the time (R.I.P.), which was where a lot of the original work was done exploring how behavioural patterns show up in onchain data. In today’s conversation, we branch out beyond Bitcoin to explore:How derivatives influence spot markets (and vice versa)Dynamics of capital rotation through crypto markets.How we think about analysing Bitcoin vs altcoins.Theorising about the trajectory of ETH vs its competition.Why we continue to come back to Bitcoin as the ultimate answer.We cover a lot of ground in this podcast, and I hope you enjoy it as much as I did. If so, please consider sharing the episode and giving us a rating on Spotify/Apple Podcasts, as it helps more folks find our work. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit newsletter.checkonchain.com/subscribe

G’day Folks, today I have something really special for you, and that is I am bringing in the biggest of guns to explore what on earth is going on right now in the Bitcoin market.The latest episode of Rough Consensus is with my market mentor Doc Severson. Doc is a trader with two decades of experience, and is by far the most influential person in my market analysis career.Doc and I discuss the current market conditions, and how it compares to prior cycles. We also break out the charts for some live analysis of what we expect over the coming weeks/months.You will find Doc’s market analysis and courses at readysetcrypto.one.I really hope you enjoy this conversation as much as I did, and if so, please consider sharing the episode and giving us a rating on Spotify/Apple Podcasts, as it helps more folks find our work. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit newsletter.checkonchain.com/subscribe

G’day Folks,Today, I had a fantastic conversation with Joe Carlasare, who carries tremendous insight into how the regulatory, legal, and macro dynamics affect global markets, and Bitcoin. We cover so much ground in this conversation, ranging from the big risk overheads in the legal world, to the core drivers of markets today, Turtle Theories, and whether 'cycles' still matter.We dive into a wide range of topics including:* How the regulatory and legal landscape has changed since FTX.* The role of higher rates, harder money, and fiscal dominance.* Turtle theories and Chopsolidation.* The psychology of HODLer sell-side pressure.* How spot and futures markets are intertwined.* Asking the question, ‘what is a store of value’?I really hope you enjoy this conversation as much as I did, and if so, please consider sharing the episode and giving us a rating on Spotify/Apple Podcasts, as it helps more folks find our work. Be sure to give Joe a follow!Disclaimer: This podcast is general in nature, and is for informational, and entertainment purposes only, and it shall not be relied upon for any investment or financial decisions. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit newsletter.checkonchain.com/subscribe