How to make sense of political polls

The WNBA playoffs are underway, capping a record-breaking season: The league added teams, games saw the highest attendance ever, and television viewership skyrocketed. Many credit rookie player Caitlin Clark for drawing fans to the league after millions tuned in to watch her and rival players compete in this year's college basketball championship. Host Elahe Izadi speaks with sports reporters Kareem Copeland and Ava Wallace about how the “Clark effect” has transformed the WNBA on and off the court.  Today’s show was produced by Sabby Robinson. It was edited by Reena Flores. It was mixed by Sean Carter. Thanks to Mark Selig.Sign up for the Sports Moment newsletter here.Subscribe to The Washington Post here.

As Election Day looms, we’re seeing more and more headlines based on poll results. Some declare Trump and Harris neck and neck, while others state one candidate has a small advantage over the other. But how can we make sense of all these polls flooding the news cycle?Today, Martine Powers speaks with The Post’s deputy polling director, Emily Guskin. Emily explains how a poll comes to be, what to look for when trying to understand whether a poll is trustworthy and breaks down once and for all what “margin of error” really means.Today’s show was produced by Ariel Plotnick, with help from Bishop Sand. It was edited by Reena Flores and mixed by Sam Bair. Subscribe to The Washington Post here.Correction: A previous version of this episode gave an example of a margin of error applying to a percentage of a sample that hated apples. In the example, the margin of error actually applied to the percentage of the population that hates apples. The audio has been corrected.

Democratic Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota and Republican Sen. JD Vance of Ohio faced off at what was expected to be the only vice presidential debate on Tuesday night. But it was much less dramatic than the presidential debates. Read more:“Post Reports” co-host Elahe Izadi talks with senior political reporter Aaron Blake about Walz’s stumbling performance, Vance’s efforts to soften his image on unpopular issues for the GOP, like abortion, and whether either performance could significantly impact the race. Today’s show was produced by Laura Benshoff and Emma Talkoff. It was edited by Lucy Perkins and Mary Jo Murphy and mixed by Rennie Svirnovskiy. Subscribe to Aaron’s newsletter, The Campaign Moment, here. Subscribe to The Washington Post here.

Across the southeastern United States, Hurricane Helene destroyed houses, swept up cars and overflowed riverbanks. Now millions of people are without power and clean drinking water; more than 100 people are dead. “It's not really an overstatement to say there are towns that were there and are basically not there anymore,” environment and climate reporter Brady Dennis said. He’s been reporting from North Carolina, where many communities were not prepared for the disaster. On today’s show, Dennis describes the widespread destruction and relief efforts to host Elahe Izadi.Today’s show was produced by Elana Gordon, with help from Sabby Robinson. It was mixed by Sean Carter and edited by Reena Flores, with help from Ariel Plotnick. Thanks to Scott Dance, Paulina Firozi and Katie Zezima.Subscribe to The Washington Post here.

For months, tensions between Israel and the militant group Hezbollah have increased, with the two sides exchanging cross-border attacks. Yet in recent weeks, Israel has ratcheted up its attacks in Lebanon, including the assassination of Hasan Nasrallah on Friday. The Shiite cleric oversaw Hezbollah for decades and became one of the most powerful and divisive leaders in the Middle East.The impact of Israel’s strikes has also been devastating. The death toll has now surpassed 1,000 people, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry. The agency doesn’t distinguish between combatant and civilian deaths, but it said more than 80 children are among the dead. Hundreds of thousands of people are fleeing for safety. Now, officials have told reporters at the Post that Israel is planning an imminent, limited ground invasion into Lebanon.Today, host Elahe Izadi speaks with Shane Harris, who covers intelligence and national security for The Post, about Israel’s strategy in attacking Hezbollah inside of Lebanon. We also hear whether this could pull Iran and the United States into a bigger regional conflict.Today’s show was produced by Emma Talkoff, with help from Rennie Svirnovskiy. It was mixed by Sean Carter and edited by Monica Campbell, with help from Reena Flores. Thanks to Joe Snell and Ben Pauker. Subscribe to The Washington Post here.

Kevin Roche was recently elected to a small governing board in Norfolk, Mass. He had lived in the small town his whole life. Then Roche received the news Haitian migrants were going to be sheltered in Norfolk.The state had opened new shelters in towns across Massachusetts, but none so big in a town so small.This is the story of one town’s reckoning with the national immigration crisis — from inside the auto shop that Kevin operates, to the airport terminal where the migrant families were staying.The story was written and read by Ruby Cramer. Audio production and original music by Bishop Sand.

“Post Reports” co-host Elahe Izadi and senior political reporter Aaron Blake talk with Senate reporter Liz Goodwin about how Senate Democrats are feeling ahead of the November election. They also dig into the politics of New York City Mayor Eric Adams’s indictment and preview what to expect in next week’s first – and likely only – vice presidential debate. Today’s show was produced by Laura Benshoff and mixed by Sam Bair. It was edited by Lucy Perkins and Mary Jo Murphy. Subscribe to Aaron’s newsletter, The Campaign Moment, here.Subscribe to The Washington Post here.

In 2020, North Carolina was the one that got away for Democrats: Then candidate Joe Biden lost the state by the smallest margin in the presidential election. Now, with the election a little over a month away, Democrats and Republicans are kicking into overdrive, campaigning to win North Carolina, a newly competitive swing state.Elahe Izadi speaks with political reporter Hannah Knowles about why Democrats now think they can win North Carolina and how the state could tip the balance of the election in November.Today’s show was produced by Laura Benshoff, with help from Ariel Plotnick. It was edited by Reena Flores and mixed by Sean Carter. Thanks to Sean Sullivan. Subscribe to The Washington Post here.

This week, Israel unleashed a wave of airstrikes in southern Lebanon, against what it says are Hezbollah targets. At least 569 people have been killed in the attacks this week and more than 1,800 injured, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry. The ministry doesn’t distinguish between civilians and combatants but said at least 50 children, 94 women and nine paramedics were among the dead. Thousands of civilians are now fleeing southern Lebanon in search of safety. Also, on Wednesday, Hezbollah fired a missile toward the Tel Aviv area as retaliation, which Israeli forces intercepted. This marks the first time the militant group has aimed a missile toward this major Israeli city. Israel has increasingly turned its attention away from its war against Hamas in Gaza to its conflict with Hezbollah, which has been launching near-daily rockets into northern Israel. Hezbollah says it has been carrying out the attacks in solidarity with the Palestinians of Gaza and will not stop until there is a cease-fire there. Tens of thousands of Israelis under fire have left their homes in the north of the country, and Israeli officials have vowed to ensure their safe return.Today, on “Post Reports,” host Elahe Izadi speaks with the Post’s Susannah George about this dramatic escalation and fears of a widening conflict. Today’s show was produced by Sabby Robinson, with help from Rennie Svirnovskiy and Ariel Plotnick. It was edited by Monica Campbell, with help from Reena Flores. It was mixed by Sean Carter. Thanks to Mohamad El-Chamaa, Suzan Haidamous, Lior Soroka and Jesse Mesner-Hage. Subscribe to The Washington Post here.

Last Friday, Georgia’s state election board voted 3-2 to approve a new election rule: before vote totals can be reported, each precinct must confirm the total number of votes cast by three separate hand counts.The move was spearheaded by a pro-Trump majority who say that it will make elections more transparent. But critics – among them many of Georgia’s election administrators – said hand counts would take too long, cost money and almost certainly produce counting errors, opening the door to doubts about the election results in November. The office of the Republican state attorney general, which is responsible for advising the board, wrote in an opinion that the change was unlawful. This rule is the latest in a string of new election measures passed by the pro-Trump election board. Democracy advocates have accused the board of intentionally injecting chaos and uncertainty into the presidential contest.Today on “Post Reports, host Elahe Izadi speaks with Amy Gardner, who covers voting for the Post, about how the rule change could affect the November election.Today’s show was produced by Emma Talkoff, with help from Lucas Trevor. It was mixed by Sean Carter. And edited by Monica Campbell, with help from Reena Flores. Thanks to Griff Witte.Subscribe to The Washington Post here.