ATP Finals PREVIEW + PREDICTION | Monday Match Analysis

37-year old Rafael Nadal drew 16-year old Darwin Blanch in the first round of the Mutua Madrid Open. Gill Gross breakdown and analysis... Subscribe to The Draw, your one-stop-shop for the best tennis content on the internet every week: https://www.thedraw.tennis/subscribe

On Monday Match Analysis, Gill Gross previews the 2024 Mutua Madrid Open ATP 1000. The top-seed is Jannik Sinner looking for his first big clay title, Carlos Alcaraz is the back-to-back defending champion opposite the draw, Daniil Medvedev and two-time Madrid champion Alexander Zverev round off the top seeds. Rafael Nadal opens against Darwin Blanch. Novak Djokovic withdrew from the event. Gill gives his quarter-by-quarter preview with dark horses, upset alerts, popcorn matchups and predictions. 00:00 Intro 03:21 Sinner's Quarter 08:45 Medvedev's Quarter 16:20 Zverev's Quarter 21:30 Alcaraz's Quarter 29:20 Final Weekend Subscribe to The Draw, your one-stop-shop for the best tennis content on the internet every week: https://www.thedraw.tennis/subscribe

On Monday Match Analysis, Gill covers Casper Ruud's breakthrough victory at the ATP 500 in Barcelona, where he reversed his previous result against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the final. We'll then move to Munich, where Jan-Lennard Struff beat Taylor Fritz for his first career title. Then, we'll take on Rafael Nadal's comeback effort in Barcelona, where he lost in the 2nd round to Alex De Minaur. Finally, Gill delivers the first intsallment of the 2024 French Open Power Rankings. 00:00 Intro 00:55 Ruud d. Tsitsipas 03:40 Ruud Aggression 12:10 Ruud Passing 16:13 Ruud Returning 18:26 Tsitsipas Performance 21:06 Struff d. Fritz Munich 27:30 Nadal in Barcelona 31:18 French Open Power Rankings Subscribe to The Draw, your one-stop-shop for the best tennis content on the internet every week: https://www.thedraw.tennis/subscribe

On the Coach' Mailbag, Thread of Order author Hugh Clark joins Gill Gross to answer your questions about professional technique and various tennis topics. We'll start by discussing Stefanos Tsitsipas's one-handed backhand in response to the recent video by Intuitive Tennis claiming it's "not bad." Comments include: an argument that Casper Ruud's big match struggles are technical not mental, is it true peaking Carlos Alcaraz better than peaking Jannik Sinner while average Sinner is better than average Alcaraz, should coaches and players focus on strengths instead of fixing weaknesses, why do Americans serve bigger on average, what are the changes Alcaraz is making to his serve technique, what we would do if we were tasked with coaching Novak Djokovic, and much much more. 00:00 Intro 03:56 Tsitsipas Backhand 10:40 Ruud Mental vs. Skill 18:28 Peak Alcaraz & Sinner 21:45 Sinner Easy Power 24:30 Focusing on Strengths 30:25 American Serves 33:05 Alcaraz Serve Technique 37:10 Weird ATP Forehands 40:09 Stop Double Faulting 43:38 Footwork Importance 46:41 Coaching Djokovic

On Monday Match Analysis, Gill Gross dissects Stefanos Tsitsipas’s commanding win over Casper Ruud in the 2024 Monte Carlo final. We’ll talk about how the event has shaped the narrative of Tsitsipas’s career, why Ruud should be upset with his performance, who’s forehand is better between the two, what to make of the Norwegian’s finals record and why, although it’s uncomfortable to acknowledge, a poor lines call possibly cost Jannik Sinner a spot in this championship match. 00:00 Intro 00:30 Tsitsipas Monte Carlo 04:22 2nd Serve Domination 13:10 8/8 Break Points 20:25 Tsitsipas Backhand 21:38 Forehand Comparison 24:18 Tsitsipas Patterns 26:16 Ruud Finals Record 30:45 Sinner Controversy Subscribe to The Draw, your one-stop-shop for the best tennis content on the internet every week: https://www.thedraw.tennis/subscribe

Gill Gross breaks down two high-billing quarterfinals from Friday's action at the Monte Carlo country club. Jannik Sinner faced Holger Rune in a rematch from last year's semifinal at the event. Plus, Novak Djokovic took on Alex De Minaur looking to reverse the result from this year's United Cup. At the end, we'll preview the semifinal lineup of Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic vs. Casper Ruud.

On Monday Match analysis, Gill Gross talks Ben Shelton’s title in Houston, Matteo Berrettini’s win in Marrakech and previews the 2024 Monte Carlo Masters quarter-by-quarter. First, we’ll discuss how Berrettini breaks the conventional wisdom of needing matches to play well, and we’ll analyze why he has three titles on grass and clay, but none on hard court. Then, we’ll cover how Shelton is the closest thing there currently is to Rafael Nadal (forehand!) and talk about the improvements he is quickly making. We’ll get a quick word in on Estoril and Hubert Hurkacz before going to the Monte Carlo preview. Novak Djokovic is the top seed, followed by Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev. 00:00 Intro 01:00 Berrettini Marrakech 08:56 Shelton Houston 24:15 Hurkacz Estoril 26:25 Monte Carlo 27:23 Djokovic Q 34:47 Alcaraz Q 40:03 Medvedev Q 43:45 Sinner Q 48:50 Final Weekend Subscribe to The Draw, your one-stop-shop for the best tennis content on the internet every week: https://www.thedraw.tennis/subscribe

On the Mailbag, Gill Gross unpacks Novak Djokovic’s split with Goran Ivanisevic, including the media coverage, the reasons for the breakup, who might be next and what value that person should bring to the 24-time major champion. We’ll answer your comments, including: how do we rank events in order of court speed, why Nuno Borges got robbed in Estoril, why Iga Swiatek can struggle against relentless power aggression, how Jannik Sinner will fare on clay, will Medvedev overcome his limitations, has Stefanos Tsitsipas’s forehand declined, what are the ideal surface speeds, can stats help explain errors, what to make of Dominic Thiem’s admission that his wrist still limits his power? 00:00 Intro 00:30 Djokovic x Ivanisevic 10:30 Novak’s Next Coach 18:09 Court Speed Tiers 22:33 Borges Robbery 28:50 Swiatek vs. Power 43:37 Sinner on Clay 38:40 Medvedev’s Limitations 45:08 Sinner vs. Alcaraz Movement 48:35 Tsitsipas Struggles 51:50 Ideal Surfaces 55:58 Explaining Errors 1:00:13 Thiem’s Quote Things I forgot to say… Regarding punishment for umpire mistakes; their performance is constantly being evaluated, so the punishment generally comes in the form of doing smaller matches. Regarding Tsitsipas’s first serve percentage; I am still perplexed by his desire to experiment with the pinpoint footwork given the effectiveness of his serve relative to other areas of his game. Subscribe to The Draw: https://www.thedraw.tennis/subscribe

Note to audio listeners: 6:25 to 19:29 is pretty heavy on visuals; I try to describe what I'm showing as much as possible, but if you wish to skip that part my analysis shifts away from film study thereafter. On Monday Match Analysis, Gill breaks down Jannik Sinner's dominant 2024 Miami Open performance. The Italian took over the #2 ranking with a 6-3 6-1 win over Grigor Dimitrov in the final. We'll cover why Sinner is on a path to number one, how his defense left Dimitrov without answers and what his strategy was in baseline rallies and on serve. We'll also both finalists performance as a whole. 00:00 Intro 03:05 The Draw 04:05 Dimitrov's Chance 6:25 Sinner's Defense = Breaks 19:29 Finding Dimitrov's Backhand 21:35 Sinner Serve Strategy 24:40 Performance Conclusions Subscribe to The Draw, your one-stop-shop for the best tennis content on the internet every week: https://www.thedraw.tennis/subscribe

Top-seed Carlos Alcaraz looked to keep his Sunshine Double chances alive facing Grigor Dimitrov in the 2024 Miami Open quarterfinals. Gill Gross breaks down that result, and previews the semifinals featuring Alexander Zverev and a AO Final rematch of Daniil Medvedev vs. Jannik Sinner. 00:00 Intro 00:25 Alcaraz vs. Dimitrov 17:40 ? vs. Zverev 22:50 Sinner vs. Medvedev