The Inflation Sensation That's Sweeping the Nation

Many investors have abandoned the world of early-stage alcohol startups, leaving a gaping hole in the market. There is less money available to fuel startup growth, and potential buyers are demanding both scale and profitability, extending the time to achieve an exit and reshaping the optimal strategy for building a brand. Over the last five years, Jason Sherman (Top Shelf) and Nick Papanicolaou (No Sleep Beverage) each helped found venture capital firms specializing in alcohol. In this episode we explore where they see opportunity, what they consider when making an investment, and what buyers of the future will ultimately be looking for. In this episode we discuss: The metrics that startups and investors should prioritize when measuring success. The current capital environment for early-stage startups and how to build a brand with way less money than before. Where the corporate VC model succeeded and why it ultimately failed to survive. Where innovation for large firms will come from in the future. Notable time stamps: 2:23 – Jason and Nick share their background and the investment thesis behind their firms. 17:11 – How to measure velocity: The key metric for potential investors. 20:30 – The impact of the general environment on investor sentiment and capital availability for independent brands. 41:00 - A corporate VC post‑mortem and the future of innovation at large alcohol suppliers. Have a question, qualm or story to tell, reach out via email: [email protected] Sign up to access our written research: RaboResearch sign-up   Note: The content and opinions presented within this podcast are not intended as investment advice, and the opinions rendered are that of the individuals and not Rabobank or its affiliates and should not be considered a solicitation or offer to sell or provide services.   Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast. 

From 1970 to 1995, US per capita spirits consumption fell by nearly 50%. Yet some players, like Heaven Hill, emerged stronger and more diversified than when the downturn began. In this episode, Heaven Hill Chairman Max Shapira and President Kate Latts reflect on the company's 90‑year journey, offering first-person accounts of beverage alcohol's last major downturn, the subsequent revival in demand, and what lessons, if any, apply to the current marketplace.  In this episode we discuss:  The drivers behind the collapse of alcohol sales in the 1970s and 1980s and the segments (wine, vodka, etc.) that actually grew during the downturn. The consolidation of the US bourbon industry, with the number of Kentucky distillers falling from 70 to 10 in just two decades. The drivers of the current market and whether they share any similarities with the 1980s. The outlook for the current US bourbon supply, and the risk of a shortage in three to five years. The moderated impact of oversupply on the sales performance of well-established brands v. startups.   Notable time stamps: 02:20 – History of Heaven Hill and building a diversified portfolio 09:21 – What caused alcohol sales to collapse from 1970 to 1995 12:39 – Parallels between the 1980s and today 19:17 – Drivers behind the current decline in alcohol demand and what is going on with millennials  32:13 – Why downturns and oversupply favor strong brands and what will happen to craft distillers 54:32 – Chaos in the distributor tier 01:02:28 – The post‑pandemic socialization reset   Have a question, qualm, or story to tell? Reach out via email: [email protected] Sign up to access our written research: RaboResearch sign-up   Note: The content and opinions presented within this podcast are not intended as investment advice, and the opinions rendered are that of the individuals and not Rabobank or its affiliates and should not be considered a solicitation or offer to sell or provide services. Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast. 

Fresh from their rather somber state-of-the-industry presentation, SipSource analysts Danny Brager and Dale Stratton help identify whether there are any areas of growth and promise in the wine and spirits business. Topics include:  The performance of wine and spirits depletions in 2025 and the outlook for 2026. The surprising resilience of RTD growth rates. Prosecco's continuing strong performance. The wine industry trying more innovative marketing strategies. The importance of finding the right packaging formats. If consumers actually want low-alcohol products or if they want low-calorie and low-sugar products.    Have a question, qualm, or story to tell? Reach out via email: [email protected] Sign up to access our written research: RaboResearch sign-up   Note: The content and opinions presented within this podcast are not intended as investment advice, and the opinions rendered are that of the individuals and not Rabobank or its affiliates and should not be considered a solicitation or offer to sell or provide services. Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast. 

Oliver Winery is one of the largest wine businesses in the United States. It is located in Indiana. In this episode, CEO Pat Brown shares how the unusual origins of the business have helped the company capture consumers who would otherwise be overlooked by the wine business, as well as the advantages of operating a winery outside the West Coast.    Have a question, qualm or story to tell, reach out via email: [email protected] Sign up to access our written research: RaboResearch sign-up   Note: The content and opinions presented within this podcast are not intended as investment advice, and the opinions rendered are that of the individuals and not Rabobank or its affiliates and should not be considered a solicitation or offer to sell or provide services. Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast. 

Danny Wirtz, Co-Chairman of Breakthru Beverage Group, discusses how brands are rethinking national agreements and what success looks like when performance, not footprint, are the primary concern for suppliers' route-to-market strategy. Themes from the episode: How did Breakthru shift strategy after a planned merger with Republic National Distributing Company was terminated in 2019? What does geographic expansion look like in the current market? What is driving decisions about footprint? Are suppliers deprioritizing a national footprint? Are there still benefits from those national partnerships? How is the push from beer wholesalers and Reyes Beverage Group changing the strategies of wine and spirits wholesalers?  What are Danny's thoughts, as CEO of the Chicago Blackhawks, about the boost his sport has received from the international phenomenon Heated Rivalry?     Have a question, qualm or story to tell, reach out via email: [email protected] Sign up to access our written research: RaboResearch sign-up   Note: The content and opinions presented within this podcast are not intended as investment advice, and the opinions rendered are that of the individuals and not Rabobank or its affiliates and should not be considered a solicitation or offer to sell or provide services. Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.   

We caught up with Francis Creighton, President and CEO of Wine & Spirits Wholesalers of America, on the floor at this year's Access Live conference in Las Vegas. In addition to helping its members navigate a very difficult business environment, the lobbying group representing US wine and spirits wholesalers in the US has a full advocacy agenda. Francis quickly brings us up to date on its legislative priorities and how wholesalers are dealing with the tough times.  Have a question, qualm or story to tell, reach out via email: [email protected] Sign up to access our written research: RaboResearch sign-up   Note: The content and opinions presented within this podcast are not intended as investment advice, and the opinions rendered are that of the individuals and not Rabobank or its affiliates and should not be considered a solicitation or offer to sell or provide services. Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.     

The team from Beer Business Daily and Beernet Radio offer candid coverage of the tumult and upheaval in the US beer wholesaler business.  In this episode, we touch on the following topics:  How are big brands (AB InBev, Molson Coors, Constellation Brands) applying pressure differently to their wholesaler networks? What is the outlook for hemp beverages (né marijuana edibles)? Will they be legal in 2027, and are they actual profit drivers for wholesalers?  Will wholesalers continue to diversify away from beer? Should this concern the biggest brands in their portfolio? Are wholesalers seeing a clear impact from the Trump administration's immigration crackdown? Should beer wholesalers move more aggressively into wine and spirits? Should those businesses be run separately from their beer business?    Have a question, qualm, or story to tell, reach out via email: [email protected] Sign up to access our written research: RaboResearch sign-up   Note: The content and opinions presented within this podcast are not intended as investment advice, and the opinions rendered are that of the individuals and not Rabobank or its affiliates and should not be considered a solicitation or offer to sell or provide services.   Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast. 

Economics power duo Jane Foley and Christian Lawrence return to discuss the first 12 months of the Trump administration and the 2026 outlook for economies in the US and Europe. As always, the conversation is far-reaching, touching on:  The AI boom and its impact on business operations and economic growth. Inflation and the legacy of higher food, housing, and healthcare prices. Interest rates, currencies, and the threats to an independent Federal Reserve. The waning predictive power of consumer confidence surveys. The incomplete and lasting impact of tariffs and Trump's challenge to the geopolitical order. The impact of immigration policies on population growth and economic activity. Have a question, qualm, or story to tell, reach out via email: [email protected] Sign up to access our written research: RaboResearch sign-up   Note: The content and opinions presented within this podcast are not intended as investment advice, and the opinions rendered are that of the individuals and not Rabobank or its affiliates and should not be considered a solicitation or offer to sell or provide services.   Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast. 

In this episode, we're joined by analyst Francois Sonneville and relationship manager Jonathan Magel to discuss the biggest news stories from the past 30 days, including: The US issues new dietary guidelines for alcohol consumption. Will it impact consumption or regulatory pressure? The CEO of Heineken will be stepping down later this year. Virtually every major alcohol business has seen executive turnover in the last 18 months. Does this signal a shift in our expectations for a quick return to growth or a resignation that the problems are more structural?  Recent reports suggest Republic National Distributing Company, the second-largest wine and spirits wholesaler in the US, will sell operations in seven states to Reyes Holdings, famously not a wine and spirits distributor. Could this signal an end or just the beginning of upheaval in the US wholesaler landscape?  The advent of GLP-1s in pill form and the lower pricing will inevitably lead to higher uptake. Should beverage companies have a "GLP-1 strategy"?  Want to sign up for our written research? Have a question, qualm, or story to tell, reach out via email: [email protected] Check out the rest of our written research: rabobank.com/knowledge Note: The content and opinions presented within this podcast are not intended as investment advice, and the opinions rendered are that of the individuals and not Rabobank or its affiliates and should not be considered a solicitation or offer to sell or provide services.   Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast. 

The end of 2025 marks the end of an era. Our dear friend and cohost Jim Watson returns for one last episode. We celebrate 10 years of ingenious, unparalleled drinks industry coverage with a very special episode, discussing the biggest story from each year of the past decade. And if you've appreciated Jim's work over 125+ episodes of this show, you should thank him directly at: [email protected]. Tune in to learn something and remember some pivotal beverage industry moments as we break down: 2016:  The Anheuser-Busch acquisition of SABMiller 2017:  Marijuana legalization in Canada and the US 2018:  The Keurig Dr Pepper merger and the broader category blurring in soft drinks 2019:  The year hard seltzers and RTDs took craft beer's momentum 2020:  Ugh… nothing in particular        2021:  The year of revenge spending and crazy valuations 2022:  The year inflation took over the world 2023:  The fallout from the anti-trans backlash against Bud Light 2024:  The year of plummeting valuations and the wine and spirits industry starting to panic 2025:  Trump Tariffs and RNDC pulling out of California   Want to sign up for our written research? Have a question, qualm, or story to tell, reach out via email: [email protected] Check out the rest of our written research: Rabobank.com/knowledge Note: The content and opinions presented within this podcast are not intended as investment advice, and the opinions rendered are that of the individuals and not Rabobank or its affiliates and should not be considered a solicitation or offer to sell or provide services. Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.