Episode 47: Investing as the Fed Prepares to Start Rate Cuts

Where can investors find attractive yield while mitigating risk in the current environment? Karthik Narayanan, Head of Structured Credit, joins Macro Markets to discuss what makes the sector an important component of our actively managed fixed-income portfolios and where we are finding value now.4Q24 High Yield and Bank Loan OutlookEffects of rate cuts on high yield bonds may be mixed. Read High Yield and Bank Loan Outlook3Q24 Quarterly Macro ThemesResearch spotlight on what’s next.Read Quarterly Macro ThemesCompanies with Access to Capital are Doing Well…and That is Where We Are InvestingAnne Walsh, CIO of Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, joins Fox Business to discuss her outlook for bonds in an election year and beyond Watch VideoInvesting involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. In general, the value of a fixed-income security falls when interest rates rise and rises when interest rates fall. Longer term bonds are more sensitive to interest rate changes and subject to greater volatility than those with shorter maturities. High yield and unrated debt securities are at a greater risk of default than investment grade bonds and may be less liquid, which may increase volatility.Investors in asset-backed securities ("ABS"), including mortgage-backed securities ("MBS"), and collateralized loan obligations (“CLOs”), generally receive payments that are part interest and part return of principal. These payments may vary based on the rate loans are repaid. Some asset-backed securities may have structures that make their reaction to interest rates and other factors difficult to predict, making their prices volatile and they are subject to liquidity and valuation risk. CLOs bear similar risks to investing in loans directly, such as credit, interest rate, counterparty, prepayment, liquidity, and valuation risks. Loans are often below investment grade, may be unrated, and typically offer a fixed or floating interest rate.This material is not intended as a recommendation or as investment advice of any kind, including in connection with rollovers, transfers, and distributions. Such material is not provided in a fiduciary capacity, may not be relied upon for or in connection with the making of investment decisions, and does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. All content has been provided for informational or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Always consult a financial, tax and/or legal professional regarding your specific situation.This material contains opinions of the author or speaker, but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners, LLC or its subsidiaries. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. Forward-looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such...

Tad Nygren, Head of Governments and Agencies, joins the podcast to offer insights on the market’s reaction to the Fed’s recent rate cut, economic data releases, and what may come next. Related Content:4Q24 High Yield and Bank Loan OutlookEffects of rate cuts on high yield bonds may be mixed.High Yield and Bank Loan Outlook3Q24 Quarterly Macro ThemesResearch spotlight on what’s next.Read Quarterly Macro ThemesHigher Quality Fixed Income is ‘the Place to Be’Anne Walsh, CIO of Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, joins Bloomberg TV to discuss her outlook for credit markets during a period of political instability. Watch VideoInvesting involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. In general, the value of a fixed-income security falls when interest rates rise and rises when interest rates fall. Longer term bonds are more sensitive to interest rate changes and subject to greater volatility than those with shorter maturities. High yield and unrated debt securities are at a greater risk of default than investment grade bonds and may be less liquid, which may increase volatility.This material is not intended as a recommendation or as investment advice of any kind, including in connection with rollovers, transfers, and distributions. Such material is not provided in a fiduciary capacity, may not be relied upon for or in connection with the making of investment decisions, and does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. All content has been provided for informational or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Always consult a financial, tax and/or legal professional regarding your specific situation.This material contains opinions of the author or speaker, but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners, LLC or its subsidiaries. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. Forward-looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information.Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Corporate Funding, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, Guggenheim Partners Japan Limited, and GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC.SP 62773

U.S. Economist Matt Bush and Investment Strategist Maria Giraldo discuss the macro and market implications of the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates. They also provide commentary on the latest issue of Quarterly Macro Themes.Related Content:3Q24 Quarterly Macro ThemesResearch spotlight on what’s next.Read Quarterly Macro Themes3Q24 High Yield and Bank Loan OutlookRelatively low distress ratios suggest manageable default rates down the road. High Yield and Bank Loan OutlookHigher Quality Fixed Income is ‘the Place to Be’Anne Walsh, CIO of Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, joins Bloomberg TV to discuss her outlook for credit markets during a period of political instability. Watch VideoInvesting involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. In general, the value of a fixed-income security falls when interest rates rise and rises when interest rates fall. Longer term bonds are more sensitive to interest rate changes and subject to greater volatility than those with shorter maturities. High yield and unrated debt securities are at a greater risk of default than investment grade bonds and may be less liquid, which may increase volatility.This material is not intended as a recommendation or as investment advice of any kind, including in connection with rollovers, transfers, and distributions. Such material is not provided in a fiduciary capacity, may not be relied upon for or in connection with the making of investment decisions, and does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. All content has been provided for informational or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Always consult a financial, tax and/or legal professional regarding your specific situation.This material contains opinions of the author or speaker, but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners, LLC or its subsidiaries. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. Forward-looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information.Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Corporate Funding, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, Guggenheim Partners Japan Limited, and GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC.SP 62634

Patricia Zobel, Head of Macroeconomic Research and Market Strategy, updates our outlook following the strong market response to the July FOMC decision and jobs report. She also draws from her experience with the Fed’s System Open Market Account, one of its most critical operating functions, to share insights on the Fed’s balance sheet management.Related Content:3Q24 High Yield and Bank Loan OutlookRelatively low distress ratios suggest manageable default rates down the road. High Yield and Bank Loan OutlookHigher Quality Fixed Income is ‘the Place to Be’Anne Walsh, CIO of Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, joins Bloomberg TV to discuss her outlook for credit markets during a period of political instability. Watch Video2Q24 Quarterly Macro ThemesResearch spotlight on what’s next.Read Quarterly Macro ThemesInvesting involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.This material is not intended as a recommendation or as investment advice of any kind, including in connection with rollovers, transfers, and distributions. Such material is not provided in a fiduciary capacity, may not be relied upon for or in connection with the making of investment decisions, and does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. All content has been provided for informational or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Always consult a financial, tax and/or legal professional regarding your specific situation.This material contains opinions of the author or speaker, but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners, LLC or its subsidiaries. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. Forward-looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information.Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Corporate Funding, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, Guggenheim Partners Japan Limited, and GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC.SP 62173

Allen Li, Head of our Municipal Bond Sector Team, reviews trends, opportunities, and idiosyncratic risk in municipal bonds. And U.S. Economist Matt Bush discusses the implications of the soft June CPI release.Related Content:2Q24 Quarterly Macro ThemesResearch spotlight on what’s next.Read Quarterly Macro Themes2Q24 Fixed-Income Sector ViewsBalancing attractive yields and tight spreads.Read Fixed-Income Sector ViewsThe Economic Cycle Isn’t Dead, Merely Delayed…And That’s Good for BondsNavigating an economic cycle where old patterns don’t seem to apply. Read Portfolio Strategy CommentaryInvesting involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.This material is not intended as a recommendation or as investment advice of any kind, including in connection with rollovers, transfers, and distributions. Such material is not provided in a fiduciary capacity, may not be relied upon for or in connection with the making of investment decisions, and does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. All content has been provided for informational or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Always consult a financial, tax and/or legal professional regarding your specific situation.This material contains opinions of the author or speaker, but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners, LLC or its subsidiaries. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. Forward-looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information.Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Corporate Funding, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, Guggenheim Partners Japan Limited, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, and Guggenheim Partners India Management.SP 61892

Sporting historically attractive yields and relatively healthy credit fundamentals, high yield bonds offer a compelling entry point. Dan Montegari, Head of Research for our Corporate Credit team, and John Walsh, Head of High Yield Trading, discuss credit spreads, default rates, market technicals, and other factors driving their team’s constructive views on risk and opportunity in leveraged credit. Related Content:2Q24 High Yield and Bank Loan OutlookA time for nimble credit selection.Read High-Yield and Bank Loan Outlook2Q24 Corporate Credit Quarterly InsightsMarket and portfolio update from our Corporate Credit team.Read Corporate Credit Quarterly Insights2Q24 Fixed-Income Sector ViewsBalancing attractive yields and tight spreads.Read Fixed-Income Sector ViewsInvesting involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.This material is not intended as a recommendation or as investment advice of any kind, including in connection with rollovers, transfers, and distributions. Such material is not provided in a fiduciary capacity, may not be relied upon for or in connection with the making of investment decisions, and does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. All content has been provided for informational or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Always consult a financial, tax and/or legal professional regarding your specific situation.This material contains opinions of the author or speaker, but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners, LLC or its subsidiaries. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. Forward-looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information.Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Corporate Funding, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, Guggenheim Partners Japan Limited, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, and Guggenheim Partners India Management.SP 61658

It’s been 10 months since the Fed’s last rate hike, and Evan Serdensky, Portfolio Manager on our Total Return team, and Matt Bush, our U.S. Economist, join Macro Markets to discuss what’s next for the economy and markets. Related Insights:The Economic Cycle Isn’t Dead, Merely Delayed…And That’s Good for BondsNavigating an economic cycle where old patterns don’t seem to apply.Read CIO Commentary“This Is a Good Time for Credit”Anne Walsh, CIO of Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, talks to Bloomberg TV at the Milken Institute Global Conference about why the Fed’s policy pause is good for fixed-income investors.Watch VideoLearning from Turning Points in Monetary PolicyThe case for moving into higher-quality fixed income (and out of money markets and equities) while the Fed is paused and a head of coming rate cuts.Read Portfolio Strategy CommentaryInvesting involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.This material is not intended as a recommendation or as investment advice of any kind, including in connection with rollovers, transfers, and distributions. Such material is not provided in a fiduciary capacity, may not be relied upon for or in connection with the making of investment decisions, and does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. All content has been provided for informational or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Always consult a financial, tax and/or legal professional regarding your specific situation.This material contains opinions of the author or speaker, but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners, LLC or its subsidiaries. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. Forward-looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information.Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Corporate Funding, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, Guggenheim Partners Japan Limited, and GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC.SP 61466

Jamie Crapanzano, a member of our insurance portfolio management team, joins the podcast to discuss the distinctive aspects of fixed-income management for insurance companies and provide an update on bond market relative value. Related Insights:1Q24 Quarterly Macro ThemesResearch spotlight on what’s next.Read Quarterly Macro Themes2024 Election Uncertainty Could Drive Fixed-Income OutperformanceRising economic policy and geopolitical uncertainty may favor higher quality fixed income in this election year.Read Portfolio Strategy CommentaryLearning from Turning Points in Monetary PolicyThe Case for Moving Into Higher Quality Fixed Income (and out of Money Markets and Equities) While the Fed Is Paused… and Ahead of Coming Rate Cuts.Read Portfolio Strategy CommentaryInvesting involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.This material is not intended as a recommendation or as investment advice of any kind, including in connection with rollovers, transfers, and distributions. Such material is not provided in a fiduciary capacity, may not be relied upon for or in connection with the making of investment decisions, and does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. All content has been provided for informational or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Always consult a financial, tax and/or legal professional regarding your specific situation.This material contains opinions of the author or speaker, but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners, LLC or its subsidiaries. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. Forward-looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information.Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Corporate Funding, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, Guggenheim Partners Japan Limited, and GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC.SP 61234

Matt Bush, Guggenheim Investments’ U.S. Economist, and Maria Giraldo, Investment Strategist, join the Macro Markets podcast to discuss our newly published Quarterly Macro Themes for 1Q 2024 and provide an update to our baseline views on the economy. Related Insights:1Q24 Quarterly Macro ThemesResearch spotlight on what’s next.Read Quarterly Macro Themes2024 Election Uncertainty Could Drive Fixed-Income OutperformanceRising economic policy and geopolitical uncertainty may favor higher quality fixed income in this election year.Read Portfolio Strategy CommentaryLearning from Turning Points in Monetary PolicyThe Case for Moving Into Higher Quality Fixed Income (and out of Money Markets and Equities) While the Fed Is Paused… and Ahead of Coming Rate Cuts.Read Portfolio Strategy CommentaryInvesting involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.This material is not intended as a recommendation or as investment advice of any kind, including in connection with rollovers, transfers, and distributions. Such material is not provided in a fiduciary capacity, may not be relied upon for or in connection with the making of investment decisions, and does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. All content has been provided for informational or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Always consult a financial, tax and/or legal professional regarding your specific situation.This material contains opinions of the author or speaker, but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners, LLC or its subsidiaries. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. Forward-looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information.Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Corporate Funding, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, Guggenheim Partners Japan Limited, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, and Guggenheim Partners India Management.SP 60910

Private debt is one of the fastest growing sectors in the capital markets, and perhaps one of the most misunderstood. Joe McCurdy, Head of Origination on our Private Debt team, joins Macro Markets to explain how the sector has grown to be a robust capital option to banks, broadly syndicated loans, and bonds. Tune in (or read the transcript!) for his take on the investment opportunity and risks right now and his outlook for the sector. Related Content:1Q24 Fixed-Income Sector ViewsInvesting as the Fed prepares to cut rates.Read Fixed-Income Sector Views“An Attractive Time to Be a Fixed-Income Investor”Steve Brown, CIO for Fixed Income, Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, joins Bloomberg TV to discuss the latest data and his outlook for bonds.Watch Video1Q24 High-Yield and Bank Loan OutlookImplications for credit investors.Read High-Yield and Bank Loan OutlookInvesting involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.This material is not intended as a recommendation or as investment advice of any kind, including in connection with rollovers, transfers, and distributions. Such material is not provided in a fiduciary capacity, may not be relied upon for or in connection with the making of investment decisions, and does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. All content has been provided for informational or educational purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be construed as legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Always consult a financial, tax and/or legal professional regarding your specific situation.This material contains opinions of the author or speaker, but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners, LLC or its subsidiaries. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. Forward-looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information.Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Corporate Funding, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited, Guggenheim Partners Japan Limited, and GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC.SP 60748