Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.📊 USDA Report: The USDA cut its US corn yield to 179.6 bpa and production to 15.893 billion bushels, both below trade estimates. Soybean yield and production were raised to 53.3 bpa and 4.574 billion bushels but still fell short of expectations, and US ending stocks for both crops came in lower than anticipated.🌽 Market Reaction: Jan27 soybeans surged nearly 40 cents to settle at $12.28, driven by the yield miss and a stronger export forecast. Dec26 corn gained about 10 cents to $4.49, and wheat followed higher on spillover support.🕊️ Russia–Ukraine Talks: Russia and Ukraine resumed US-mediated peace talks in Abu Dhabi for the first time in nine months, focusing on humanitarian issues, prisoner swaps, and security guarantees. Zelenskyy named restoring Black Sea grain shipments as a key goal, but it wasn’t addressed on Tuesday, and talks continue today.💵 Inflation & the Fed: October CPI rose 0.4%, beating the expected 0.3% for the third straight hotter-than-expected month, with gasoline and food prices both climbing. Fed Governor Waller called for a December rate hike, and markets now fully price in a quarter-point increase, with half-point odds near 14%.🚢 Flash Sales: US exporters sold 312,700mt (12 million bushels) of corn to Mexico for 2026/27 delivery. Exporters also sold 150,000mt (6 million bushels) of soybeans to Mexico for the same marketing year.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.📊 USDA WASDE Report Today: The USDA releases its November Crop Production and WASDE report at 11:00am CST, with traders expecting lower corn yield and production estimates, though the crop would still be the second largest on record. Soybean production is expected to edge higher toward a record harvest, while global ending stocks for corn, soybeans, and wheat are all forecast to rise.🔮 2027/28 Baseline Projections: USDA’s early long-term baseline shows farmers shifting acres away from corn (95.5M) and toward soybeans (87.5M) and wheat (44M) next season. Corn yield is pegged at 184 bpa, with ending stocks projected at 1.82B bushels for corn, 300M for soybeans, and 748M for wheat.🚜 Harvest Progress: Corn harvest reached 81% complete, trailing both the five-year average of 86% and trade expectations, with notable delays in South Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa. Soybean harvest hit 92%, slightly ahead of average, while winter wheat planting reached 89% with good-to-excellent ratings improving to 49%.📉 Futures Recap: December corn fell to a four-month low near $4.39, as a still-massive crop outweighed expectations for a lower USDA yield estimate. January soybeans dropped nearly 6 cents to $11.88 on record crop expectations and strong Brazil planting, while wheat slid on ample global supplies and hopes for Russia-Ukraine peace progress.🇧🇷 Brazil Planting Update: AgRural reports Brazil’s soybean crop is 64% planted, ahead of last year’s 61% pace, with fewer challenges than expected for an El Niño year. Concerns linger over dryness in central Brazil and excessive rain in the south, while first-crop corn planting reached 71%.🚢 Export Inspections: Soybean inspections totaled 1.9mmt (70M bushels), down 25% week-over-week, but year-to-date shipments are running 58% ahead of last year with China taking about 67%. Corn shipments reached 905,267mt (36M bushels), while wheat disappointed again at 248,536mt, leaving year-to-date totals 36% behind last year.🌽 Flash Sale to Mexico: USDA reported a flash sale of 110,000mt (4M bushels) of corn to Mexico for the 2026/27 marketing year. Despite the sale, accumulated corn sales remain down 34% from last year.🐄 Beef Industry News: Tyson Foods is partnering with Allied Beef to restart a second shift at its Amarillo, TX plant by summer 2027, likely reflecting improving cattle supplies in the Southern Plains. Meanwhile, JBS missed Q3 earnings expectations with $1.18B in adjusted earnings, though it sees its US beef business recovering in 2027.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🤖 USDA Turns to AI: USDA is rolling out a new AI tool in tomorrow’s November Crop Production report as an extra safeguard to catch errors, following September’s corn miscalculations. The move comes as confidence in USDA data has slipped amid reporting inconsistencies and staff cuts across the agency.🇨🇳 China Extends Tariff Truce: Beijing will hold off on an additional 24% tariff on US goods for two more months while keeping its 10% blanket tariff in place, and port fees on US ships are delayed until January 10. Trump and Xi are set to meet later this month at the APEC summit in Shenzhen, with ag purchases and rare earths high on the agenda.📊 WASDE Preview: USDA releases its Crop Production and WASDE report Tuesday at 11:00am CST, with traders expecting lower corn yield and production but still the second-largest crop on record. Soybeans are expected to edge higher toward a record harvest, while global corn, soybean, and wheat stocks are all forecast to rise.⛽ Harvest Fuel Relief Program: USDA’s $8 billion Harvest Fuel Relief Program has an October 16 acreage reporting cutoff, which passed three days before the program was even announced. Paul Neiffer recommends reviewing your FSA-578 reports and checking with your county FSA office, especially if you picked up land late or operate a new entity.💰 Fund Positioning: Large money managers sold 72k corn, 51k soybean, and 13k SRW wheat contracts for the week ending November 3. The funds’ corn net long is now the smallest since early July, while their SRW wheat net short is the largest since late January.📈 Friday’s Markets: Soybeans bounced about 6 cents to near $11.94 on short covering after a week of steep losses, and Dec26 corn added roughly 2 cents to near $4.42. Wheat kept sliding to its lowest level since February as Russia-Ukraine peace talks raise hopes for improved Black Sea shipments.🚢 Flash Sales: USDA reported a sale of 101,000mt (4 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for 2026/27 delivery. Exporters also sold 136,000mt (5 million bushels) of soybeans to China for the 2026/27 marketing year.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇨🇳🌾 Chinese buyers signed $600 million in US sorghum and wheat purchase agreements with Illinois-based Hang Tung Resources at the China International Import Expo in Shanghai. The deals come as China lags far behind its $17 billion annual commitment for US farm goods beyond soybeans, buying just $7.2 billion through September.📉💻 The stock market plunged Thursday as a massive tech and AI selloff pushed the Nasdaq down 5.5% and into correction territory, while the S&P 500 fell 4.4% and the Dow dropped 3.4%. Investors worried that Democrats’ sweeping midterm victories could bring tighter AI regulations, erasing Wednesday’s strong postelection rally.🏦📈 Treasuries rallied as investors fled to safe-haven assets, sending yields down as much as 12 basis points to their lowest levels since early September. Traders are now scaling back expectations for more Fed rate hikes, with some positioning for no change in December.🫘🌽 Soybean futures extended their losing streak to nine straight sessions, with the Jan27 contract falling 14 cents to $11.88 on expectations of a record-large US crop. Corn also slipped on big-crop expectations, while wheat edged higher on technical buying despite Russia-Ukraine peace deal optimism.🚢📦 US soybean export sales fell 44% week over week to 1.5 MMT, though China was the top buyer, and accumulated sales are up an impressive 76% from last year. Corn sales held steady at 1.3 MMT, with Mexico leading, while wheat sales dropped 37% to 538,000 MT, with the Philippines as the top buyer.☀️🏜️ USDA’s latest drought monitor showed worsening conditions in northern Indiana, southern Illinois, and Missouri, while Minnesota and the High Plains saw improvement. About 31% of the Corn Belt is in drought, down from 35% a year ago, and the dry weather has been ideal for harvest.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇨🇳 China says it’s open to buying more US farm goods, but only once the “$30 billion-for-$30 billion” tariff-cut deal is implemented. Beijing’s non-soybean ag purchases hit just $7.2 billion through September, the lowest for that period since 2019. 🤝🌾🛢️ WTI crude plunged 8.3% to $88.12, its lowest close since late August, on hopes for a US-Iran deal after Democrats took both chambers of Congress. Some analysts warn the selloff may be overdone, since neither side looks ready to make major concessions. 📉⚔️🌱 January soybeans fell nearly 12 cents to about $12.02, the lowest since mid-August, pressured by weaker crude and expectations for a massive US crop. December corn bounced 2 cents to $4.44 on oversold conditions, while wheat slipped on hopes for Russia-Ukraine peace talks. 🌽🌾🚜 John Deere will close its Ottumwa and Clarion, Iowa, factories and move sugar cane harvester production from Louisiana to Brazil. The restructuring comes just a week after Deere announced recalls and new hiring across several Midwest plants. 🏭🔄🏛️ The USDA and CFTC signed an MOU to strengthen oversight, share information, and expand risk management tools for farmers and ranchers. It follows the CFTC’s plan to publish Commitments of Traders reports twice a week starting in December. 📊🤠⛽ US ethanol production hit 1.14 million barrels per day, the second-highest level on record and up 2.2% from the prior week. Ethanol margins strengthened across the Corn Belt, now running 30 to 70 cents per gallon positive. 💪🌽🇧🇷 Rabobank expects Brazilian soybean exports to dip to 113 MMT, with production forecast at 178 MMT amid rising costs, tight margins, and El Niño concerns. That’s well below the USDA’s forecast of a record 186 MMT Brazilian crop. 🌦️💸🇪🇸 USDA reported a flash sale of 167,000 MT (6 million bushels) of soybeans to Spain for 2026/27 delivery. Accumulated US soybean sales are now running 80% ahead of last year’s pace. 🚢📈

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🗳️ Midterm Results: Democrats are projected to take control of both the House and Senate, flipping Senate seats in Iowa, Kansas, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina, and Texas, plus governor’s races in Ohio and Texas. 📊 Grain markets are quiet this morning while stocks trade higher, and the recent $8 billion farmer relief package is safe since it was approved through the CCC without needing Congress. 💵🌽 StoneX Crop Forecast: StoneX raised its 2026 corn yield to 183.1 bpa (above USDA’s 181.2), pushing total production to 16.20 billion bushels, with Iowa leading at 216 bpa. 🫘 Soybean yield was bumped to 55.0 bpa vs. USDA’s 53.1, putting production at 4.73 billion bushels, led by Illinois at 68 bpa. 📈🏥 ACA Premiums: Obamacare marketplace premiums are expected to climb 13% in 2027 after a 26% jump this year, ranging from 3% in Vermont to 28% in Arizona. ⚠️ The expiration of enhanced tax credits means those earning over 400% of the federal poverty level now pay full price for coverage. 💸📉 Futures Recap: Dec26 corn fell about 6¢ to ~$4.43/bu, its lowest close since early July, as export sales run 34% behind last year’s pace. 🫘 Jan27 soybeans slipped 3¢ to $12.14/bu on big-crop expectations, while wheat also closed lower despite optimism over Russia-Ukraine peace talks. 🌾🚢 Flash Sales: USDA reported 315,000mt of corn sold to Mexico and 136,000mt to South Korea for 2026/27 delivery. 📦 Exporters also sold 134,000mt of soybeans to unknown destinations. 🌍🏭 ADM Earnings: ADM raised its profit outlook for the third straight quarter, with crushing profits soaring to $311 million from just $13 million a year ago. ⛽ The US-Iran war boosted crude prices and biofuel demand, and ADM now expects a ~$350 million benefit from the 45Z tax credit. 💰👨‍🌾 Farmer Sentiment: The Purdue/CME Ag Barometer rose to 126 in October, though only 62% of farmers report a strong balance sheet, down from 76% in January. 📉 Just 35% believe higher tariffs will strengthen the ag economy, down from 58% a year ago. 🇺🇸

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🚢 Export Inspections: Soybean inspections stayed strong at 2.4mmt (90 mil bu), with year-to-date totals running 56% ahead of last year and China taking about 63% of the week’s volume. 📉 Corn rose 39% week-over-week to 884,766mt, while wheat posted an all-time record weekly low of just 75,413mt, down 61% from the prior week.💰 Flash Sales: Mexico bought 1.7mmt (68 mil bu) of US corn, split between 2026/27 and 2027/28 delivery. 🇨🇳 Exporters also sold 136,000mt (5 mil bu) of soybeans to China for 2026/27 delivery.🛢️ China’s Soybean Oil Glut: China’s soybean oil stocks climbed to a record near 1.5 million tons as crushing outpaces sluggish demand, pushing exports to more than triple from a year ago. 🤝 China’s lead trade negotiator also met with a US ag delegation Monday, as Chinese purchases of non-soybean US farm goods head toward a seven-year low.📊 Futures Recap: Jan soybeans dropped roughly 18¢ to $12.17/bu, their lowest close since mid-August, on falling crude, fund liquidation and strong yields. 🌽 Dec corn edged up a penny to $4.48/bu despite harvest pressure, and wheat closed slightly higher as Russia-Ukraine attacks dimmed hopes for a Black Sea shipping deal.🚜 Harvest Progress: Corn harvest jumped to 74% complete, just behind the 77% average, with delays persisting in South Dakota, Nebraska and Iowa. 🌱 Soybeans reached 88% done (ahead of the 84% average), while winter wheat planting hit 83%, short of the 86% traders expected.🇧🇷 Brazil Planting: AgRural says Brazil’s soybean crop is 53% planted, ahead of last year’s 47% despite wet conditions in the south and dryness in the north. 🌽 Brazil’s first corn crop is 63% planted, also ahead of last year’s 59% pace.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.📊 Fund Positioning: Large money managers were net sellers of 83k corn contracts for the week ending October 27, bringing their total reduction since the mid-September peak to 333k contracts. Funds also sold 28k soybean contracts and 23k SRW wheat contracts.🌽 Weekly Grain Recap: Dec26 corn fell nearly 4 cents to about $4.48, its fifth straight weekly loss, on fund liquidation and harvest progress. Jan27 soybeans slipped to about $12.34, the lowest close since mid-August, while wheat posted a ninth consecutive weekly loss on expectations of more Russian exports. 📉🇺🇦 Ukraine-Russia & Black Sea: Ukraine ended a two-week pause and struck a refinery in Russia’s Samara region, despite pressure from the Trump administration to stop. The escalation follows Russia issuing permits for grain vessels to leave the Sea of Azov, and Secretary of State Rubio cited “growing interest” in a partial Black Sea ceasefire. 🚢🛢️ Crude Oil: Dec26 WTI dropped below $100/bbl overnight after peaking near $105 Friday, as Iranian and Qatari officials held talks in Doha on ending the US-Iran war. Some analysts still see upside risk, with Goldman Sachs projecting Brent could reach $140 in 2027 if Gulf output stays well below 2025 levels. ⛽🫘 Soybean Flash Sale: USDA reported a flash sale of 297,150 mt (11 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for 2026/27 delivery. Accumulated soybean sales are running 80% ahead of the same period last year. 📈💻 Binance Hack: Binance resumed withdrawals Sunday after a record $6.3 billion theft blamed on a North Korean state-sponsored hacking group. The exchange says about 90% of the stolen assets have been replenished, but the incident sparked heavy withdrawals and a broader crypto sell-off. 🔐

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 China Eyes US Wheat: State-owned grain trader Cofco has inquired about buying US soft red winter wheat for delivery next year, following the September Trump–Xi tariff agreement. China has bought more than half of its 25mmt soybean pledge but still hasn’t purchased any US corn or wheat this marketing year, and its own wheat supplies remain ample after another bumper harvest.🚜 Ag Industry Headwinds: AGCO cut its annual sales outlook, with its CEO saying global farm machinery demand is at its weakest in more than a decade, though the company sees a possible recovery in 2027. Bunge held its earnings guidance but expects lower soybean crush profits, while proposed increases in biofuel blending requirements offer a potential bright spot for corn and soybean demand.📈 Strong Export Sales: Net soybean sales hit 2.6mmt (95 mil bu) for the week ending October 22, with China the top buyer, and corn sales came in at 1.3mmt (51 mil bu), led by Mexico. Wheat finally had a strong week at 849,800mt (31 mil bu), beating expectations, with the Philippines as the largest buyer.☀️ Drought Update: Warm, dry weather worsened drought across parts of Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, and Missouri, though it kept harvest moving at a good pace. Scattered rain improved conditions in parts of Nebraska, South Dakota, and Oklahoma, while 50% of winter wheat areas are still in drought.🤖 AI and Crop Insurance: A new private insurance product will use AI to assess field-level risk, potentially saving corn and soybean farmers $10–$15 per acre on supplemental coverage. Launching in 15 Corn Belt states next year, it could lift total coverage up to 90% and may reward conservation practices like no-till and cover crops.🛒 USDA $472.5M Purchase: The USDA plans to buy $472.5 million in US farm goods, from lentils and almonds to pork and dairy, for charitable food networks and nutrition programs. Secretary Brooke Rollins framed the move as part of the administration’s effort to put farmers first and advance its Make America Healthy Again agenda.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 New Ethanol Plant for North Dakota: RoughRider Energy plans a facility near Glen Ullin that would use 84 million bushels of corn a year to produce 240 million gallons of ethanol, starting in 2029. 🏭 CO2 from the plant would be piped to a Summit Carbon storage site about 15 miles north, while Gevo has proposed a separate 75-million-gallon plant near Richardton.📉 Soybeans Slide, Corn Edges Up: January soybeans fell 5 cents to $12.38 on fund liquidation and worries that resumed Black Sea shipments could cut into US export demand. 🌾 Dec corn gained 3 cents to about $4.52 on bargain buying, while wheat posted its ninth loss in 10 sessions.🚢 Sea of Azov Reopens to Grain Ships: Russia has issued permits letting grain vessels leave the Sea of Azov through November 15, after traffic was halted on July 10 by Ukrainian drone attacks. ⚠️ With no ceasefire in place, some ships are expected to travel under Russian naval escort.🏦 Fed Holds Rates Steady: The Federal Reserve voted 10-2 to keep its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4% as inflation rose to 3.7% in September. 📊 Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave no clear signal for December, and traders still expect a hike next month but fewer increases in 2027.🇺🇸 Soybean Flash Sale: USDA reported a sale of 120,000 metric tons (4 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2026/27 marketing year. 🚀 Total US soybean export sales are running 81% ahead of last year’s pace.⛽ Ethanol Output Hits 13-Week High: US ethanol production climbed to 1.12 million barrels per day, up 2.2% from the prior week, with stocks nearly steady at 24.52 million barrels. 💰 Corn Belt ethanol margins strengthened to between 25 and 65 cents per gallon positive.🎲 Kalshi Weighs New Safeguards: CEO Tarek Mansour says the prediction market is exploring ways to protect users from losses and is open to raising the minimum age from 18 to 21. 🔒 The company has already set a $2,500 monthly deposit limit for users under 21 and will place them in special accounts that discourage risky behavior.