Swamp Notes: Can you trust the polls?

Major defence companies are recruiting workers at the fastest rate since the end of the cold war, global leaders were able to reach a consensus on major issues during the G7 summit, and big Chinese companies are turning to the convertible bond market. Plus, investors are flocking to the local currency bonds of one-time emerging market pariahs. Mentioned in this podcast:Chinese companies rush to tap US convertible bond marketFrontier emerging markets lure investors back with high yieldsG7 threatens China with further sanctions over Russia war supportGlobal defence groups hiring at fastest rate in decades amid record ordersThe FT News Briefing is produced by Fiona Symon, Sonja Hutson, Kasia Broussalian and Marc Filippino. Additional help from Denise Guerra, Breen Turner, Sam Giovinco, Peter Barber, Michael Lello, David da Silva and Gavin Kallmann. Our engineer is Monica Lopez. Our intern is Prakriti Panwar. Topher Forhecz is the FT’s executive producer. The FT’s global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. The show’s theme song is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Across the world, billions of citizens are being asked to cast their vote in elections taking place in more than 50 countries and in many places, populist, illiberal and far-right parties are either growing in support or consolidating gains they have already made. But India, the world’s biggest democracy, bucked the trend with Narendra Modi’s relatively weak election victory in June. In the third of this five-part series, the FT’s renowned economics commentator, Martin Wolf, and Raghuram Rajan, former governor of the Reserve Bank of India, discuss the Indian election results and inherent weaknesses of authoritarian styles of government.Links: Martin Wolf column: Fascism has changed, but it is not deadFor Martin’s other FT columns click hereThis episode is presented by Martin Wolf. The producer is Sandra Kanthal. Production help from Sonja Hutson. The executive producer is Manuela Saragosa and the sound engineer is Nigel Appleton. The FT's global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Margaret Thatcher’s election in 1979 foreshadowed Ronald Reagan’s a year later, and the Brexit vote in 2016 took place just months before Donald Trump’s stunning presidential victory. The FT’s Whitehall editor, Lucy Fisher, and US politics news editor, Derek Brower, join this week’s Swamp Notes to explain why British and American politics often rhyme, and what the phenomenon could mean for upcoming elections in both countries. Mentioned in this podcast:Parallel US and UK elections could bring dangersNigel Farage’s Reform UK overtakes Conservatives in new opinion pollFrom the Political Fix podcast: “the Tories’ ‘kitchen sink’ manifesto”Sign up for the FT’s Swamp Notes newsletter hereSwamp Notes is produced by Ethan Plotkin, Sonja Hutson, Lauren Fedor and Marc Filippino. Topher Forhecz is the FT’s executive producer. The FT’s global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. Special thanks to Pierre Nicholson. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Chinese electric vehicle makers look like they will survive the latest tariffs the EU announced this week, and UK Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer laid out his party’s manifesto. Plus, Toyota is caught up in a scandal. Will it matter during next week’s shareholder meeting?Mentioned in this podcast:Japan’s top carmakers caught in widening testing scandalWhat the EU’s tariffs on electric vehicles mean for ChinaKeir Starmer sets out plans to raise £8.6bn in tax at Labour manifesto launchThe FT News Briefing is produced by Fiona Symon, Sonja Hutson, Kasia Broussalian and Marc Filippino. Additional help from Ethan Plotkin, Michela Tindera, Breen Turner, Sam Giovinco, Peter Barber, Michael Lello, David da Silva and Gavin Kallmann. Our engineer is Monica Lopez. Our intern is Prakriti Panwar. Topher Forhecz is the FT’s executive producer. The FT’s global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. The show’s theme song is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Federal Reserve held borrowing costs at a 23-year high yesterday, and Terraform Labs has agreed to pay $4.47bn in a case brought by the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Plus, tech companies launch a fight against a proposed California law to introduce a ‘kill switch’ on AI models.  Mentioned in this podcast:Fed officials signal just one interest rate cut before end of 2024Silicon Valley in uproar over Californian AI safety billUS inflation falls to 3.3% in May in boost to marketsTerraform Labs to pay $4.5bn in SEC fraud caseThe FT News Briefing is produced by Fiona Symon, Sonja Hutson, Kasia Broussalian and Marc Filippino. Additional help from Breen Turner, Sam Giovinco, Peter Barber, Michael Lello, David da Silva and Gavin Kallmann. Our engineer is Monica Lopez. Our intern is Prakriti Panwar. Topher Forhecz is the FT’s executive producer. The FT’s global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. The show’s theme song is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Shari Redstone has ended talks with Skydance Media over a deal to control Paramount, the number of central banks seeking to increase their exposure to the US dollar has increased sharply this year, the EU plans to put hefty tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, and the UK Tories' manifesto lays out billions in tax cuts. Plus, the FT’s Christine Murray explains why Mexico's peso slid after president-elect Claudia Sheinbaum proposed reforms.Mentioned in this podcast:EU to impose multi-billion euro tariffs on Chinese electric carsGlobal central banks plan to increase dollar reserves, survey suggestsRishi Sunak pledges £17bn in tax cuts to revive Tory election bidMexico’s president-elect vows to press ahead with controversial judicial overhaulShari Redstone ends talks with Skydance Media over deal to control ParamountThe FT News Briefing is produced by Fiona Symon, Sonja Hutson, Kasia Broussalian and Marc Filippino. Additional help from Victoria Mortimer, Breen Turner, Sam Giovinco, Peter Barber, Michael Lello, David da Silva and Gavin Kallmann. Our engineer is Monica Lopez. Our intern is Prakriti Panwar. Topher Forhecz is the FT’s executive producer. The FT’s global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. The show’s theme song is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Apple on Monday said it has partnered with OpenAI to integrate ChatGPT into its devices, and private equity groups are snapping up US accounting firms. Plus, President Emmanuel Macron stunned France on Sunday when he called snap parliamentary elections. The FT’s Leila Abboud unpacks what happens next for the country. Mentioned in this podcast:Apple partners with OpenAI as it rolls out new artificial intelligence systemPrivate equity groups poised to own one in three top US accounting firmsEmmanuel Macron gambles on snap French election after Marine Le Pen victory in EU voteWhy Emmanuel Macron went all in against Marine Le PenThe FT News Briefing is produced by Fiona Symon, Sonja Hutson, Kasia Broussalian and Marc Filippino. Additional help from Breen Turner, Sam Giovinco, Peter Barber, Michael Lello, David da Silva and Gavin Kallmann. Our engineer is Monica Lopez. Our intern is Prakriti Panwar. Topher Forhecz is the FT’s executive producer. The FT’s global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. The show’s theme song is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Far right parties make significant gains in the European Union elections, opposition politician Benny Gantz has resigned from Israel’s emergency government, and Iranian authorities have disqualified prominent moderates as candidates in the snap presidential election. Plus, global investors are turning their backs on sustainability-focused stock funds.Mentioned in this podcast:Far-right parties make significant gains in European parliament electionsInvestors pull cash from ESG funds as performance lagsIran promotes hardliners as presidential candidatesBenny Gantz resigns from Israel government over GazaThe FT News Briefing is produced by Fiona Symon, Sonja Hutson, Kasia Broussalian and Marc Filippino. Additional help from Denise Guerra, Sam Giovinco, Peter Barber, Michael Lello, David da Silva and Gavin Kallmann. Our engineer is Monica Lopez. Our intern is Prarkiti Panwar. Topher Forhecz is the FT’s executive producer. The FT’s global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. The show’s theme song is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Across the world, billions of citizens are being asked to cast their vote in elections taking place in more than 50 countries, making this a pivotal year for democracy. But these polls come as populist, illiberal and far-right parties are either growing in support or consolidating gains they have already made. In the second of this five-part series, the FT’s renowned economics commentator, Martin Wolf, speaks to the author and journalist Anne Applebaum, who’s witnessed first hand some of the seismic shifts that have taken place in America and Europe. They talk about how the newly elected Polish government is trying to veer the country away from the illiberal path taken by the previous administration, and spell out what’s at stake for the world if Donald Trump wins a second term as US president. Clip: The GuardianLinks: Martin Wolf column: Fascism has changed, but it is not deadFor Martin’s other FT columns click hereThis episode is presented by Martin Wolf. The producer is Sandra Kanthal. Production help from Sonja Hutson. The executive producer is Manuela Saragosa and the sound engineer is Nigel Appleton. The FT's global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Few of Silicon Valley’s biggest names supported Donald Trump in 2016 or 2020. Now, some of them are holding multimillion- dollar fundraisers for him. The FT’s US business and politics correspondent, Alex Rogers, and tech correspondent, Hannah Murphy, join this week’s Swamp Notes to explain why Big Tech is abandoning Joe Biden. Mentioned in this podcast:Donald Trump fundraiser latest sign of support in Silicon ValleySilicon Valley elite warms to Donald TrumpBiden camp hits out at Elon Musk and ‘sucker’ Donald TrumpSign up for the FT’s Swamp Notes newsletter hereDo you have questions about the US election? Drop us a voice note here and we may play your question on the show! Swamp Notes is produced by Ethan Plotkin, Sonja Hutson, Lauren Fedor and Marc Filippino. Topher Forhecz is the FT’s executive producer. The FT’s global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. Special thanks to Pierre Nicholson. Original music by Hannis Brown. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.