Downballot Counts

Democrats lost control of the House Nov. 8 but exceeded expectations under new congressional maps that ensure the House will be in play for the rest of the decade, according to the party's top redistricting strategist. "There were a sufficient number of competitive seats on the board because of fair maps and the House is now going to be competitive for the decade," Kelly Burton, the president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, said on Bloomberg Government's "Downballot Counts" podcast with Emily Wilkins and Greg Giroux. Republicans probably will begin the 118th Congress next January with 222 House seats, a net gain of nine seats that was sufficient to overturn the Democratic majority but was below the big historical gains the opposition party usually makes in a midterm election. Democrats blocked a GOP "red wave" in part by faring well in Michigan and Pennsylvania, where redistricting commissions or courts drew new congressional maps and Republicans had weak top-of-ticket nominees for governor, and also in Illinois and Nevada, where Democratic maps achieved their partisan goals. Republicans dominated in Florida, where Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis's landslide re-election helped his party win 20 of 28 districts under a map he signed. But Republicans also won six districts favoring President Joe Biden in New York, where a special master's map replaced a proposal from the Democratic legislature that was invalidated as an impermissible partisan gerrymander. Redistricting litigation is pending in states including North Carolina, where Democrats and Republicans won seven seats apiece under an interim, one-election map that was approved by the Democratic-majority state Supreme Court after it rejected the Republican legislature's map as so partisan it violated the state constitution. The US Supreme Court on Dec. 7 will hear oral arguments in Moore v. Harper, an appeal by North Carolina Republican legislators who are advocating for the "independent state legislature" theory under which state legislatures should be able to enact redistricting plans immune from judicial review in state court. "Redistricting is not over, and it's not going to end anytime soon," Burton said. Have feedback on this episode of Downballot Counts? Give us a call and leave a voicemail at 703-341-3690.

Election Day is finally here! With so many competitive races, and control of the House and Senate up for grabs, there will be a lot to watch on Tuesday and the days that follow. To help you know what to focus on, and when, Bloomberg Government’s Emily Wilkins, Greg Giroux and Zach C. Cohen used the latest Downballot Counts to walk through each hour of polls closing (based on when the latest polls close in the state) and what races can tell us about the direction of the night. From the East Coast to the farthest reaches of Alaska, Greg, Zach, and Emily review which races will have quick reporting and which could take a while. They also get into weird quirks of certain states so you know whether a Democratic or Republican lead is real or just a factor of how ballots are counted. Plus, they discuss the races that won't be called on Election Night and when you can expect final results. So grab some pizza and the caffeinated beverage of your choice and get ready. Have feedback on this episode of Downballot Counts? Give us a call and leave a voicemail at 703-341-3690.

Women are still underrepresented in major political office after steady but slow gains: they account for just 28% of members of Congress and 18% of governors, the highest representation so far in history. How female candidates fare in the Nov. 8 election will depend in part on how well incumbents perform. Kelly Dittmar, a political scientist and scholar at the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University, spoke about this with Bloomberg Government's Emily Wilkins and Greg Giroux on the "Downballot Counts" podcast. "The story about how women incumbents fare is important" in part because it's "determining where we land in terms of women's representation," Dittmar said. Some women first elected to the House in 2018, a good year for Democratic women, or in 2020, when Republican women did well, have difficult re-election bids. Several others retired, sought other office, or were defeated in the primary. The 583 Democratic and Republican women who sought House seats in 2022 is “exactly the same” as the record number from 2020, Dittmar said, though the number of women who won their nominations fell to 259 from the record of 298 set in 2020. Democratic women continue to lead Republican women, though the GOP has closed the gap from 2018. "It's still high historically, but we haven't seen that level of increase that we saw in the last cycles," she said. And while the number of women House nominees decreased, "I wouldn't raise a red flag about a decline, but just to say that we aren't seeking a pace of increase for women." In contests for governor, Dittmar said there's a “fairly good” chance for states to top the record of nine women governors first set in 2004 and matched today. Massachusetts Democrat Maura Healey and Arkansas Republican Sarah Huckabee Sanders are strongly favored to succeed male governors in their states. A woman will also succeed a man as Arizona governor, though it's not clear if it will be Republican Kari Lake or Democrat Katie Hobbs. "Governor is a huge point of progress for women this cycle," Dittmar said. "When we're talking about being in stasis for women candidates, that's not true at the gubernatorial level." Do you have feedback on this episode of Downballot Counts? Give us a call and leave a voicemail at 703-341-3690.

Bloomberg Government's Emily Wilkins and Greg Giroux could talk about congressional campaigns all day. But as you likely have other things to do, the latest episode of Downballot Counts features the program's first lightning speed round. Greg and Emily highlight 12 interesting races to watch in 12 minutes. They're not necessarily the most competitive races — although some of them are — but each has a unique aspect that will tell us more about voters, trends and the direction of the country. With producer David Schultz on the airhorn to signal the end of each 60 second block, this podcast will get you caught up on the campaign trail in less time than it takes to order twice through the Chick-fil-A drive thru. Have feedback on this episode of Downballot Counts? Give us a call and leave a voicemail at 703-341-3690.

You can learn a lot about how a campaign is shaking out by looking at what the candidates are saying in their TV ads. Heading into this fall's midterm elections, Republicans are emphasizing inflation and the President's unpopularity, while Democrats want to talk about abortion rights and dispel any hint of the "Defund the Police" movement. On this episode of Downballot Counts, hosts Greg Giroux and Emily Wilkins talk about why the parties are zeroing in on these particular messages, and about whether anything that happens on Capitol Hill between now and Nov. 8 will really matter at the ballot box. Do you have feedback on this episode of Downballot Counts? Give us a call and leave a voicemail at 703-341-3690.

Much has been made about the seeming shift in momentum toward Democrats as we head into the midterm elections this fall. But the University of Virginia's J. Miles Coleman, an editor of the widely read Sabato's Crystal Ball newsletter, says Republicans are still in good position to pick up at least a dozen seats in the House and take back control of the lower chamber. Coleman talks with Bloomberg Government's Greg Giroux and Emily Wilkins about why this is and why the Senate is essentially a coin flip with two months until election day. Do you have feedback on this episode of Downballot Counts? Give us a call and leave a voicemail at 703-341-3690.

If midterms are supposed to be bad for the party in the White House, why are Democrats gaining confidence ahead of this November's elections? Surprisingly large fundraising hauls are one reason. Weaker than expected Republican Senate nominees are another. And a third reason is that the President's dismal approval ratings don't seem to be hurting downballot candidates as much as one might expect, according to Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of the nonpartisan newsletter Inside Elections. Gonzales joins Bloomberg Government's Kyle Trygstad and Greg Giroux to talk about these dynamics and why he thinks Democrats' polling figures will gravitate downward toward Biden's as election day gets closer. Do you have feedback on this episode of Downballot Counts? Give us a call and leave a voicemail at 703-341-3690.

We're now in the thick of congressional primary season, and it's still looking like Democrats will struggle to hold onto the House in November, and maybe also to the Senate. But beyond the makeup of next year's Congress, this year's elections may also determine whether former President Trump's can regain the White House--and whether current President Biden will even stand for reelection. Downballot Counts hosts Kyle Trygstad and Greg Giroux breakdown what we've learned so far from this spring's primaries and where we're heading. Do you have feedback on this episode of Downballot Counts? Give us a call and leave a voicemail at 703-341-3690.

Disinformation and its impact on elections has been a hot topic for years now. But despite this, little attention has been paid to how this plays out in Spanish-language media. On today's episode of Downballot Counts, hosts Kyle Trygstad and Greg Giroux speak with Bloomberg Government reporter Maria Curi about where Spanish-language disinformation is coming from and what effect it's having on the Latino vote. Maria explains why falsehoods spread longer and faster in the Spanish-speaking community and why it's difficult for government regulators to combat it. Greg and Kyle also break down the series of primary elections taking place throughout the rest of this month, including a big contest tomorrow in Ohio that could be a test of the former President's power. Produced by David Schultz, with assistance from Alex Clearfield and Macarena Carrizosa Do you have feedback on this episode of Downballot Counts? Give us a call and leave a voicemail at 703-341-3690.

With the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, rising inflation, and the resurgence of Covid-19, 2021 was a difficult year for President Biden to say the least. This could seriously imperil Democrats' chances in next year's midterm elections if the President can't turn his fortunes around before November. On this episode of Downballot Counts, hosts Greg Giroux and Kyle Trygstad talk about why Democrats had a disappointing year and what next year could bring. They also talk with Kelly Burton, head of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, about the fight over redrawing the country's lines.