Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by returning guest Zvi Mowshowitz, AI watcher extraordinaire, to read Anthropic’s S-1 and what it shows about the AI industry. They cover a founder-controlled structure built on a single Class F share that holds 50.1% of the vote, an uncapped 3:1 employee donation match that may be the most expensive perk ever offered, and about $900 billion in forward compute commitments. They also discuss why softer Q3 revenue points to a shortage of GPUs rather than of customers, the bubble and circular-financing bear cases, and who should be blamed when AI-assisted hackers take $5 billion from Binance.–Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/reading-the-anthropic-s-1-with-zvi-mowshowitz/  –Presenting Sponsor: MercuryComplex Systems is presented by Mercury. Mercury Payroll puts payroll, benefits, and compliance right inside your Mercury account. An in-house team backed by AI registers you in new states, files and remits your payroll taxes, and handles the notices, so you don’t have to copy from PDFs to Excel to web portals. Setup takes minutes, and Mercury Payroll is free for eligible Mercury customers through the end of 2026 at mercury.com/payroll –Links:Anthropic S-1: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2130357/000162828026068676/anthropicpbc-sx1ax1.htm Zvi’s past Complex Systems episode: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/betting-trading-zvi-mowshowitz/ –Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(01:35) How the S-1 talks about existential risk(07:45) Anthropic has long had an attitude(12:20) Anthropic’s uncapped donation matching(14:18) Postscript: what the matching program will actually cost(16:00) Sponsor: Mercury(18:29) Revenue growth and cohort economics(22:25) Postscript: Q3 was a supply story, not a demand story(24:55) Is it a bubble?(28:27) Sizing the market for tokens(31:02) The commodification bear case(31:56) Cash efficiency and $800 billion in compute commitments(36:44) Postscript: what happens if the commits go bad(39:20) Flexing compute between training, inference and subleasing(43:37) Reading an S-1, with and without an LLM(46:49) Circular financing and the dot-com comparison(50:08) Wall Street versus the tech industry(52:02) The three AI pills(54:53) Industrial revolutions and how weird the future gets(57:31) AI mathematics and the bitter lesson(01:00:52) Capabilities nobody trained for(01:04:40) Capabilities versus diffusion(01:07:12) Token spend at the frontier(01:09:09) Final thoughts on the S-1(01:11:48) The Hackening and who bears responsibility(01:17:49) Trapdoors and irreversible decisions(01:19:12) Wrap

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) reads his 2022 Bits about Money essay “Markets in power,” prompted by a SoftBank push notification asking him to cut his air conditioner use between 5 and 8 PM, and updated for the era of AI data centers. He walks through why electricity has to be consumed almost the moment it is generated, how base load, intermediate, and peaker plants divide up a day’s demand, and how virtual power plants turn software and contracts into the economic equivalent of a peaker plant. The new commentary covers CoreWeave’s start as a GPU host for Ethereum miners, why ERCOT paid a Bitcoin miner tens of millions of dollars during the 2023 Texas heat wave, and why AI data centers, whose chip depreciation is five to ten times their electricity bill, behave more like base load than Bitcoin miners do–Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/why-softbank-paid-me-17-yen-to-skip-the-air-conditioning/ –Links:(Source essay) Markets in power: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/markets-in-power/  –Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(02:58) Electricity is ubiquitous, and other polite fictions(06:35) Electricity supplied and demanded are necessarily equal(07:57) Demand for electricity fluctuates over the day and over the year(09:53) The power generation mix(13:34) Demand response and virtual power plants(19:50) A quick aside about meter reading(21:05) Why this sudden interest in power?(26:22) Wrap

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) reads his 2022 Bits about Money essay on the infrastructure behind American charitable giving, prompted by the wave of AI-generated wealth expected to flow into philanthropy. He explains donor-advised funds, a chimera that is legally a charity but works for donors like a financial institution that can time travel: someone with a windfall takes the tax deduction now and recommends grants for years afterward. Along the way he covers why the IRS-required donation receipt is simple enough for a seven-year-old to produce while the industry still spends billions on record-keeping, why DAFs still mail so many paper checks, and how Anthropic’s reported uncapped three-to-one donation match could push tens of billions of dollars through this machinery.–Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/the-charity-that-is-also-a-time-machine/ –Presenting Sponsors: Mercury & ElevenLabsComplex Systems is presented by Mercury—radically better banking for founders. Mercury Spend hands your team and agents their own cards with limits you set once, so nobody waits on you to approve a SaaS invoice and nobody chases a receipt. Apply online in minutes at https://mercury.com/. ElevenAgents by ElevenLabs are AI voice and chat agents that look up accounts, handle routine requests, and pass a fully developed ticket to a human rep when needed, which is what IVR always promised. They handle more than 10 million conversations a week, in over 70 languages. Book a demo at elevenlabs.io/complexsystems.–Links:(Source essay) Charitable donations and the infrastructure supporting them: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/charitable-donations-infrastructure/ The Third Wave of American Philanthropy:https://nanransohoff.substack.com/p/the-third-wave-of-american-philanthropy –Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(02:24) How charities are organized in the U.S.(06:09) Recordkeeping for charitable donations(10:00) Charitable donations and time travel(10:55) Sponsors: Mercury | ElevenLabs(15:02) Charitable donations and time travel (cont'd)(22:54) This is a pattern seen elsewhere(23:49) Postscript(26:40) Wrap

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) reads his 2022 Bits about Money essay "Finality does not exist in payments." It argues that how final a payment is depends on the rails, the parties, and the governing law, not on the payment method alone. He explains why the reversibility of credit cards is what made internet commerce possible. He also covers the "hold harmless," the brief phone call between operations staff that quietly unwinds wire mistakes every day. He then applies the essay to Citibank's 2020 accidental wire of nearly $900 million to Revlon's lenders: a district court let recipients keep about $500 million before an appeals court reversed it. He closes with how the UK, India, and Japan have each tried, with mixed results, to make fraudulent instant payments less final.–Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/the-900m-wire-that-wasnt-final/ –Presenting Sponsors: Mercury & GranolaComplex Systems is presented by Mercury—radically better banking for founders. Mercury Spend hands your team and agents their own cards with limits you set once, so nobody waits on you to approve a SaaS invoice and nobody chases a receipt. Apply online in minutes at https://mercury.com/. If meetings consistently leave you with hazy action items and lost context, Granola handles the transcription so you can actually participate and gives you searchable notes afterward. Try it free at granola.ai/complexsystems with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS–Links:(Source essay) Finality does not exist in payments: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/no-payments-are-final/ –Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(01:23) Finality is a technosociolegal construct(03:26) Non-state agreements for dispute resolution(07:34) Wait, are you telling me wires are reversible?(12:43) Why does this matter?(13:26) The $900M mistake(14:52) Sponsors: Mercury | Granola(18:11) The $900M mistake (cont'd)(20:37) Final, then not final(23:09) How other nations handle finality(32:39) Wrap

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) reads his Bits about Money essay on how credit cards make money. The prompt was a listener who wondered how a card can include free travel insurance for someone who never carries a balance. He covers the four ways a card earns revenue (net interest, interchange, fees and marketing contributions), and explains why rewards competition makes some customers in the middle of the credit score ladder persistently unprofitable. He also explains why Europe's interchange cap left cards at about half of electronic payments, while Japan's uncapped interchange quietly pays for the rest of its consumer banking. In a new postscript, he walks through what a proposed 10% APR cap would mean for cardholders at the low end of the market, and how First Republic made sub-10% unsecured loans work by treating them as a way to win deposits.–Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/why-banks-pay-you-to-use-their-credit-cards/  –Presenting Sponsors: Mercury & GranolaComplex Systems is presented by Mercury—radically better banking for founders. Mercury Spend hands your team and agents their own cards with limits you set once, so nobody waits on you to approve a SaaS invoice and nobody chases a receipt. Apply online in minutes at https://mercury.com/. If meetings consistently leave you with hazy action items and lost context, Granola handles the transcription so you can actually participate and gives you searchable notes afterward. Try it free at granola.ai/complexsystems with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS–Links:How credit cards make money: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/how-credit-cards-make-money/ –Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(01:11) How credit cards make money(01:55) Bundling and unbundling(03:12) Revenue levers for credit cards(03:23) Net interest(06:19) Interchange(07:34) Interchange makes cards so valuable you're paid to use them(10:02) Fees(10:50) Marketing contributions(13:05) Debit cards: a horse of a different color(13:32) Sponsors: Mercury | Granola(16:54) Postscript(25:27) Wrap

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) got stranded overnight after a backhoe severed a single fiber optic cable, knocking out air traffic control across much of the eastern US. His airline declined to pay for the hotel. In this episode, he walks through who actually owes you what when air travel breaks: federal refund rules, the airlines' "controllable delay" commitments, credit card trip delay coverage, and the goodwill credit a well-placed phone call can unlock. Along the way, he explains why checkout-page travel insurance pays back only about 40 cents on the dollar and why 5,000 apology miles are worth about $60.–Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/stranded-who-pays-when-air-travel-breaks/ –Presenting Sponsors: Mercury & GranolaComplex Systems is presented by Mercury—radically better banking for founders. Mercury Spend hands your team and agents their own cards with limits you set once, so nobody waits on you to approve a SaaS invoice and nobody chases a receipt. Apply online in minutes at https://mercury.com/If meetings consistently leave you with hazy action items and lost context, Granola handles the transcription so you can actually participate and gives you searchable notes afterward. Try it free at granola.ai/complexsystems with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS–Links:Seeing like a Bank: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/seeing-like-a-bank/ –Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:38) A severed fiber cable and a double misconnect(02:25) The dangerous professional approach to travel disruption(05:09) Delay codes and why the cause matters(06:57) Tiered customer service at airlines(08:29) Who to talk to at the airport(12:03) Remote customer support and the trouble with chat(17:02) Waterfall item one: the DOT automatic refund rule(19:38) Sponsors: Mercury | Granola(22:57) Waterfall item two: airline commitments and controllable causes(26:18) Waterfall item three: why paid travel insurance is a bad product(30:05) Credit card travel benefits(32:37) Waterfall item four: asking the airline for a goodwill credit(36:17) Politeness, magic words, and negotiating the credit(39:24) Last resorts: DOT complaints and small claims court(41:02) Wrap

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) reads his Bits About Money essay "Financial systems take a holiday" (originally published February 2024), prompted by a conversation with a prior guest about how even exchanging calendars between financial institutions is hard. He explains why banks run at something closer to "five twos" of uptime than Google's five nines, using Japanese banks' idiosyncratic, company-specific "Company Foundation Day" to show how a holiday can be entirely real and consequential while appearing on no official list anywhere.–Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/forced-vacations-are-a-fraud-control/   –Presenting Sponsors: Mercury & GranolaComplex Systems is presented by Mercury—radically better banking for founders. Mercury Spend hands your team and agents their own cards with limits you set once, so nobody waits on you to approve a SaaS invoice and nobody chases a receipt. Apply online in minutes at https://mercury.com/. If meetings consistently leave you with hazy action items and lost context, Granola handles the transcription so you can actually participate and gives you searchable notes afterward. Try it free at granola.ai/complexsystems with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS–Links:Source essay: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/financial-systems-take-a-holiday/Alex Elliott on Complex Systems: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/two-banks-cant-agree-on-fourth-grade-math/ –Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(01:31) Financial systems take a holiday(03:29) What is a holiday, anyway?(10:33) Fun operational consequences of holidays(15:07) Sponsor: Mercury | Granola(18:27) Fun operational consequences of holidays (cont’d)(21:29) "This is crazy. Let's get rid of holidays"(26:31) Will this change?(27:55) Wrap

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) reads his Bits About Money essay on the business of wallets, with new commentary, prompted by paying his barber $100 over Venmo and wondering why PayPal so badly wants to be in the middle of that transaction. He walks through the economics that make wallets irresistible to anyone already moving money for users: funds enter the ecosystem at card interchange rates, move inside it at the cost of a database transaction, and get topped up over ACH pulls that cost about five cents at scale. From there he covers co-branded debit and credit cards, the loss-sharing language in PayPal's 10-K, Apple's 15 basis points on Apple Pay, and why a checkout page crowded with payment buttons starts to look like advertising inventory.–Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/everyone-wants-to-be-your-wallet/–Presenting Sponsors: Mercury & GranolaComplex Systems is presented by Mercury—radically better banking for founders. Mercury Spend hands your team and agents their own cards with limits you set once, so nobody waits on you to approve a SaaS invoice and nobody chases a receipt. Apply online in minutes at https://mercury.com/. If meetings consistently leave you with hazy action items and lost context, Granola handles the transcription so you can actually participate and gives you searchable notes afterward. Try it free at granola.ai/complexsystems with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS–Links:Source essay: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/the-business-of-wallets/Link: https://stripe.com/payments/link –Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(03:06) The big question about wallets(04:11) Wallets show up early in the life of the Internet(06:01) Stocks, flows, and whatever the heck a wallet is(09:21) What does an ACH pull cost?(11:01) Extensions on the basic wallet model(11:38) What's in your wallet? A new debit card(14:49) Sponsors: Mercury | Granola(18:09) What's in your wallet? A new debit card (cont’d)(23:06) Put the wallet on the phone already(24:50) That smells like an ads business(27:33) Speaking of Stripe and wallets(32:52) Wrap

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Max Spero, co-founder and CEO of Pangram Labs, which builds models that identify AI-generated text and images. Max goes under the hood to explain how AI detection actually works. They also discuss the institutions that quietly assumed writing was expensive: credit bureaus that negotiated the right to shred templated dispute letters, grant committees where reading the application is five percent of the work, and unemployment offices staffed for a world where claims cannot plausibly rise two hundredfold. –Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/how-ai-detection-actually-works-with-pangrams-max-spero/ –Presenting Sponsors: Mercury & GranolaComplex Systems is presented by Mercury—radically better banking for founders. Mercury Spend hands your team and agents their own cards with limits you set once, so nobody waits on you to approve a SaaS invoice and nobody chases a receipt. Apply online in minutes at https://mercury.com/. If meetings consistently leave you with hazy action items and lost context, Granola handles the transcription so you can actually participate and gives you searchable notes afterward. Try it free at granola.ai/complexsystems with code COMPLEXSYSTEMS–Links:Pangram Labs: https://textguard.ai/ –Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:27) Why AI detection exists(01:42) Friction as a rate limiter(05:42) What Pangram actually does(06:57) Authorship identification at scale(11:01) Common Crawl and the crawling arms race(15:52) Being in the weights(18:08) Ghostwriting letters to banks(19:45) Templated letters and the FCRA loophole(22:38) The anti-memetic property of LLM text(25:28) Value above the weights(27:03) What happens to programmers(30:19) Sponsors: Mercury | Granola(33:39) Jevons Paradox and the compiler(36:44) What comes after the coding harness(40:19) Mode collapse and the dinner recommendation problem(43:00) The patio11 fan blog(45:58) Cognitive surplus and the dead internet(49:40) Is this fight winnable?(54:35) Reputation and disclosure norms(58:02) Training on books and moral standing(01:01:52) Attention, phones, and what we've gained(01:04:17) Wrap

Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) is joined by Alex Elliott (@alexpotato), who has spent his career in SRE and operations roles at financial firms ranging from ten-person fintechs to global investment banks, to discuss what the back office actually does all day. They cover the life cycle of a trade: execution, clearing, settlement, and the constant reconciliation between counterparties who don't quite agree on what happened. Alex recounts the Friday afternoon when twenty million shares went out to the street instead of five, and Patrick explains what happens between 4:15 and 4:30 when one bank owes another $36 million and the person who owns that process is on vacation.–Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/two-banks-cant-agree-on-fourth-grade-math/ –Presenting Sponsors: Mercury, MongoDB & GranolaComplex Systems is presented by Mercury—radically better banking for founders. Mercury's new feature Command brings an LLM directly into your banking interface, so checking balances, finding invoices, or sending a wire is as easy as asking. Apply online in minutes at https://mercury.com/. If meetings consistently leave you with hazy action items and lost context, Granola handles the transcription so you can actually participate and gives you searchable notes afterward. Try it free at granola.ai/complexsystems with code COMPLEXSYSTEMSWhat's the point of building faster with AI if your database can't keep up? MongoDB's native data model mirrors the language LLMs already speak. Ship at the speed of AI while staying ACID compliant at Fortune 500 scale. Start building at https://mongodb.com/ai.–Links:Alex’s website: https://alexpotato.com/ –Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(01:48) The life cycle of a trade(04:37) Why you don't know who you traded with(06:01) Hiding a large block trade(10:04) Information walls inside financial firms(12:49) What the middle office does: managing positions(15:41) Calendars, time zones, and other sources of gibbering madness(19:37) War story: twenty million shares out the door(22:45) Sponsors: Mercury | Granola(25:50) Ops as an iterated game(28:53) Busting trades and who has the authority(33:38) Sponsor: MongoDB(34:29) Inside the Knight Capital collapse(35:49) Agreements, obligations, and who you have to call(36:57) Reconciliation, FTP files, and the humans behind them(39:16) Deadlines, cutoffs, and the $36 million phone call(44:26) How two banks fail to agree on fourth-grade math(48:54) When the golden record goes down(51:55) Finding the one person who can sell the position(54:09) How much business do we do with Fidelity?(56:38) Prime brokerage and extending credit(01:01:03) Smart flow, dumb flow, and payment for order flow(01:02:45) Wrap