Carnegie Connects is our premier virtual event series hosted by Aaron David Miller. Every other week, he tackles the most pressing foreign policy issues of the day in conversations with journalists, policymakers, historians, and experts.
Unpacking the Ukrainian Battlefield With Russia Military Analyst Michael Kofman
50:34Wars evolve in one of two ways—one side decisively defeats the other, or both sides, realizing that total victory is unattainable, compromise on a temporary or permanent deal to end the fighting. In Russia’s brutal war against Ukraine, neither scenario is currently in play as Moscow and Kyiv plan fresh offensives and counteroffensives in 2023 along the 600-mile battlefront. How are Putin and Zelenskyy recalibrating their military strategies in the new year? How would Russia react if Ukraine wins more ground and is in striking distance of Crimea? How would Chinese military assistance impact the battlefield balance? And what circumstances might produce a Western military confrontation with Russia? Aaron welcomes Russian military expert Michael Kofman from CNA to discuss how the battlefield in Ukraine is shaping up in 2023.Want to listen to Carnegie Connects live? Visit our website to sign up for invitations.
Inside Biden’s Ukraine Strategy With Ambassador Victoria Nuland
47:35As the war in Ukraine nears its one-year anniversary, the coming months could prove decisive in a conflict that has become a war of attrition. The possibility of any negotiation in the near future appears dim as rumors spread of massive Russian and Ukrainian offensives. Kyiv and its Western partners are scrambling to bolster the Ukrainian military with tanks, air defense, and other capabilities. How does the Biden administration view the effectiveness and sustainability of its overall strategy? And how can Ukrainian and Western leaders persuade Putin that he is wrong to pin his hopes on simply outlasting his opponents?Aaron sits down in conversation with Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland to discuss these and other issues. Want to listen to Carnegie Connects live? Visit our website to sign up for invitations.
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Unpacking Israel's New Government with Tzipi Livni
48:40The inauguration of the most right-wing fundamentalist government in Israel’s history poses unprecedented and extraordinary challenges. Just the other week, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government introduced new legislation that would weaken the judiciary’s independence. Meanwhile, the new government‘s hardline policies toward the Palestinians have the potential to jeopardize its relationships with its Arab neighbors. Is Israel’s democracy in danger with these new judicial reforms? How will the government’s policies on the West Bank and Jerusalem impact relations with the Palestinians and other Arab states? And what’s the trajectory of U.S.-Israeli relations moving forward? Aaron sits down with the former Israeli vice prime minister and minister of foreign affairs and justice Tzipi Livni to discuss these and other issues.
How Russia Handles Western Sanctions With Polina Ivanova
52:00Russia’s war against Ukraine continues with no end in sight. Almost a year into the conflict, one of the most intriguing questions is how Russia’s economy has managed to stave off a destabilizing economic crisis in the face of unprecedented economic sanctions. How has the Russian economy survived? What has the impact of sanctions been on the Russian public? And can Russia continue to thwart international pressure to choke off the oil revenues that fuel the war effort in Ukraine?Aaron is joined by the Financial Times’ Polina Ivanova, an investigative journalist who covers Russia, Ukraine, and Central Asia and has focused on how Russia’s economy has learned to adapt over the last year. Want to listen to Carnegie Connects live? Visit our website to sign up for invitations.
Understanding Xi’s China With David Rennie
53:30The U.S.-China relationship will figure prominently in global politics for decades to come. Getting China right, to the extent that’s possible, is critically important both to minimize the chances of conflict and maximize potential cooperation. Despite its rising power, China is also wrestling with sluggish growth, an aging population, and a failed pandemic policy that has sparked backlash against President Xi’s leadership. Is Taiwan squarely in Beijing’s crosshairs today? How does Xi envision his relationship with Biden and the United States in the years to come? And what do American policymakers miss when it comes to China and its authoritarian leader?Aaron David Miller is joined by David Rennie, the Economist’s Beijing bureau chief and Chaguan columnist, to discuss these and other issues. Want to listen to Carnegie Connects live? Visit our website to sign up for invitations.
Is Russia-Ukraine a Forever War?
49:54Russian aggression against Ukraine continues with no end in sight. While Ukrainian military offensives have shifted the momentum and recaptured significant swaths of territory, entrenched Russian positions and winter conditions have slowed the tempo of the fighting. Meanwhile, Russia’s air and missile strikes have crippled Ukrainian infrastructure and exacted a severe price on civilians. Where is the war headed? Is the resolve of the U.S.-led coalition still strong? How has the conflict affected Putin’s domestic support? And what options are available to the Biden administration other than simply staying the course?Aaron sits down with Carnegie’s own Andrew S. Weiss and one of Russia's most acclaimed political observers, Ekaterina Schulmann, to discuss these and other issues.Want to listen to Carnegie Connects live? Visit our website to sign up for invitations.
Reassessment or Business as Usual in U.S.-Saudi Relations
47:11The U.S.-Saudi relationship is going through some of the worst tensions in decades. In the wake of the Saudi-driven OPEC Plus decision in October to cut production, Biden has warned of “consequences” for the relationship. At the same time, the White House has also granted Mohammed bin Salman legal immunity over the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, a sting to Biden’s calls to uphold human rights. What consequences, if any, will arise now, or will it just be a slap on the wrist for a problematic but important partner? How will the OPEC Plus meeting in Vienna shape energy markets? And how will the EU’s embargo of seaborne Russian oil shipments and G7 price caps affect energy prices and U.S.-Saudi relations?Aaron welcomes veteran OPEC watcher Helima Croft and Princeton University’s Bernard Haykel as they discuss the future of U.S.-Saudi relations.Want to listen to Carnegie Connects live? Visit our website to sign up for invitations.
America in the World With Thomas L. Friedman
47:37When it comes to foreign policy, George Will quipped, Americans want as little of it as possible. That much was even clearer this week as American voters had inflation, crime, abortion access, U.S. democracy, and recession fears at the top of their minds in the midterm elections. At the same time, warming temperatures, supply chain breakdowns, and a global pandemic have only reaffirmed the inescapable fact that what happens here at home is inextricably linked to events beyond America’s shores. All this takes place amid the backdrop of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s rise as a peer competitor, and challenges from rogue states such as North Korea and Iran. How do we prioritize these challenges? And what does it mean to lead in a complex, multipolar world?Aaron sits down with Pulitzer Prize-winning New York Times columnist Thomas L. Friedman for a wide-ranging discussion of these and other challenges.Want to listen to Carnegie Connects live? Visit our website to sign up for invitations.
Midterms Debrief With S.E. Cupp and Norman Ornstein
49:09Next week Americans will go to the polls in a midterm election that may speak volumes on how voters view the current policies of the Biden administration and provide a snapshot of the state of America’s deeply polarized politics. How will the election results shape the second half of Biden’s term in office? What did the pollsters get right and wrong about voters’ priorities? And what do the midterms tell us—if anything—about the general election in 2024?Aaron sits down with S.E. Cupp and Norman Ornstein for an analysis of the midterms and the state of politics in America.Want to listen to Carnegie Connects live? Visit our website to sign up for invitations.
Nukes, Protests, and Iran With Robert Malley
48:14With negotiations over the nuclear deal on hold and Iran facing its most serious protests since 2009, the Biden administration is dealing with a new reality in its relations with the Iranian regime. How have the demonstrations reshaped the administration’s thinking on Iran? Is a revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action still on the table? And what is the most effective approach to deal with Iran’s internal unrest?Aaron sits down with Robert Malley, the U.S. special envoy for Iran, for a wide-ranging conversation on the Biden administration’s Iran policy.Want to listen to Carnegie Connects live? Visit our website to sign up for invitations.