Business Breakdowns

Today we're breaking down Affirm, the buy now, pay later company founded by PayPal co-founder Max Levchin. Affirm processes more than $50 billion in annual purchase volume and is growing over 30%, even after its stock fell more than 90% following its IPO. Joining me is Fraser, an investor who has spent time with Max and studied the business closely. We explore how Affirm makes money, why its transaction-level underwriting is different from traditional credit cards, and how its merchant relationships create powerful network effects. We also discuss the company's resilience through rising interest rates, its competition with Klarna, and why Affirm may be better understood as the American Express of the internet than as a traditional lender. For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ----- Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at ⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠. ----- This episode is brought to you by⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠Portrait Analytics⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - your centralized resource for AI-powered idea generation, thesis monitoring, and personalized report building. Built by buy-side investors, for investment professionals. We work in the background, helping surface stock ideas and thesis signposts to help you monetize every insight. In short, we help you understand the story behind the stock chart, and get to "go, or no-go" 10x faster than before. Sign-up for a free trial today at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠portraitresearch.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ----- Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant. Timestamps (00:00:00) Welcome to Business Breakdowns (00:01:29) Max Levchin's journey from PayPal to Affirm  (00:07:11) How an Affirm transaction works  (00:11:53) AI and the advantage of transaction-level underwriting  (00:16:43) Affirm’s business model and unit economics  (00:20:18) Why Affirm is the internet’s American Express  (00:24:50) The power of negative CAC  (00:25:25) The growth opportunity in buy now, pay later  (00:28:16) How AI agents could transform payments  (00:31:51) Affirm versus Klarna and Afterpay  (00:37:14) Affirm Card and expanding beyond online checkout  (00:39:39) Why merchants adopt Affirm  (00:42:21) Customer retention and the Walmart relationship  (00:44:58) Affirm’s 90% stock decline and recovery  (00:49:15) Max Levchin’s leadership and AI-first culture  (00:54:06) How Affirm funds its loans and manages interest rate risk  (01:00:56) Affirm’s long-term growth opportunities  (01:08:57) The biggest risks to the investment thesis  (01:12:10) Lessons from Affirm’s resilience

Today, we are breaking down Applied Intuition. Our guests are co-founders Qasar Younis and Peter Ludwig, who started the company in 2017 with a mission to make a billion machines intelligent. The simplest way to understand Applied Intuition is that it builds the brains for machines, and the tools other companies use to build those brains. If a manufacturer wants its tractor, truck, or mining vehicle to drive itself, it can buy the intelligence from Applied Intuition or use its platform to develop its own. The analogy the founders use is Nvidia. Just as Nvidia sells chips into everyone else's machines, Applied Intuition sells intelligence into everyone else's machines, across automotive, defense, mining, agriculture, and robotics, without building any single machine itself. We discuss why the most important companies of the next 25 years will all be physical AI companies, Dana, their new agentic platform for developing and deploying these systems, and how the company raised a billion dollars without spending any of it. Please enjoy this Breakdown of Applied Intuition. For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ----- Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at ⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠. ----- This episode is brought to you by⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠Portrait Analytics⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - your centralized resource for AI-powered idea generation, thesis monitoring, and personalized report building. Built by buy-side investors, for investment professionals. We work in the background, helping surface stock ideas and thesis signposts to help you monetize every insight. In short, we help you understand the story behind the stock chart, and get to "go, or no-go" 10x faster than before. Sign-up for a free trial today at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠portraitresearch.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ----- Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant. Timestamps (00:00:00) Welcome to Business Breakdowns (00:02:16) Intro: Applied Intuition (00:03:26) State of the Physical AI Market (00:07:19) Why Physical AI Will Be Bigger Than Digital AI (00:09:14) What Applied Intuition Builds & Sells (00:12:36) Staying Flexible Across Technologies & Verticals (00:13:16) Founding Story & Strategic Choices (00:17:10) Evolution of the Business: Tools → OS → Autonomy Stack (00:20:59) Introducing Dana: The Agentic Platform (00:23:40) Building Dana: Customer Demand vs. Vision (00:24:51) Why Applied Intuition Is Uniquely Positioned to Build Dana (00:28:29) The Cross-Vertical Data Flywheel (00:33:25) Rate Limiters to Physical AI Adoption (00:35:41) Business Model & Revenue (00:37:06) Customer Base & Global Reach (00:39:22) Competitive Landscape (00:44:21) Capital Allocation & Financial Strategy (00:47:15) The Future of Physical AI

Today, we are breaking down Toast, a name we have covered before but are revisiting because the story has changed enough to be worth telling again. Most listeners will have tapped a Toast terminal without thinking much about the business behind it.  Our guest is Sean Barrett, founder, managing partner, and chief investment officer of Counter Global, who holds Toast as one of his largest positions and walks us through how a restaurant point of sale company became the operating system that runs the restaurant. He argues that Toast is best understood as the operating system for the restaurant rather than a payments terminal with software attached, and that the business grows as fast and as profitably as it does because the company spent years building purpose-built hardware, a multi-tenant software platform, and a sales force on the ground before it moved into new markets across grocery, enterprise, hospitality, and international.  We also discuss why a business winning roughly half of new restaurant openings in the United States still trades at a multiple that looks closer to a mature company than a category killer. Please enjoy this Breakdown of Toast. For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ----- Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at ⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠. ----- This episode is brought to you by⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠Portrait Analytics⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - your centralized resource for AI-powered idea generation, thesis monitoring, and personalized report building. Built by buy-side investors, for investment professionals. We work in the background, helping surface stock ideas and thesis signposts to help you monetize every insight. In short, we help you understand the story behind the stock chart, and get to "go, or no-go" 10x faster than before. Sign-up for a free trial today at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠portraitresearch.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ----- Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠). Timestamps (00:00:00) Welcome to Business Breakdowns (00:03:19) Toast Business Overview & Financials (00:06:31) Recurring vs. Reoccurring Gross Profit (00:07:39) Nuance on Revenue Semantics (00:10:05) Transformation from 2020 to Today (00:11:51) Full Product Offering Overview (00:14:13) Revenue Model — Recurring vs. Transaction-Based (00:16:08) Net Take Rate (00:17:22) Software Side of Revenue (00:18:49) Hardware & SaaSpocalypse Connection (00:22:31) AI Offering & What They're Shipping (00:27:01) Impact of 8% Revenue Uplift for Restaurants (00:27:12) Competitive Landscape (00:32:44) Switching & Churn Dynamics (00:34:52) Competitive Advantage & Moat (00:37:43) Management Team & Culture (00:39:57) $10B Gross Profit TAM & Runway (00:44:01) Valuation Approach (00:45:53) Key Risks (00:48:32) Key Lessons

Today, we are breaking down Auto1, and this is an interesting episode because we are tackling a business that most US listeners will not be familiar with, even though it resembles names they already know well. Our guest is Harrison Moot, co-founder and CIO of Sandstone, who walks us through Europe's largest vertically integrated online marketplace for used cars. Auto1 is often shorthanded as the Carvana of Europe, and the comparison directionally fits, but the differences are what make the company worth understanding on its own terms. The core of the conversation is how Harrison frames the company. He argues that Auto1 is best understood as a pan-European clearing house for used vehicles rather than a dealer with a website, and that the model only works because the company built its consumer sourcing engine and its wholesale dealer liquidity for nearly a decade before ever launching the consumer retail business. Owning the sourcing, logistics, refurbishment, and financing stack across thirty fragmented national markets gives Auto1 a pricing and routing advantage that local dealers and asset-light classifieds cannot replicate. Please enjoy this Breakdown of Auto1. For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ----- Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at ⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠. ----- This episode is brought to you by⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠Portrait Analytics⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - your centralized resource for AI-powered idea generation, thesis monitoring, and personalized report building. Built by buy-side investors, for investment professionals. We work in the background, helping surface stock ideas and thesis signposts to help you monetize every insight. In short, we help you understand the story behind the stock chart, and get to "go, or no-go" 10x faster than before. Sign-up for a free trial today at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠portraitresearch.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ----- Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠). Timestamps (00:00:00) Welcome to Business Breakdowns (00:03:35) Auto1 Business Overview  (00:07:06) European Market & C2B Model  (00:12:31) Founding Story & Sequencing  (00:16:39) Why Cazoo Failed  (00:16:42) Cazoo vs. Auto1 Approach  (00:18:29) How a Transaction Works  (00:22:11) Dealer Buying Patterns  (00:25:49) Retail vs. Wholesale  (00:26:18) Consumer Financing & ABS  (00:27:57) ABS Lowers Funding Costs  (00:28:16) Unit Economics by Segment  (00:32:37) Network Effects & Data Moat  (00:37:35) Path to Margin Expansion  (00:42:23) Balance Sheet & Working Capital  (00:44:40) Four Growth Levers  (00:48:27) Dealers: Customers Not Competitors  (00:53:17) Four Key Business Risks  (00:54:12) Inventory Risk & Mitigants  (00:58:32) Valuation Framework & Multiples  (01:03:14) Vertical Integration & Capital Cycles

Today, we are breaking down Opendoor, and this is a unique episode. We recorded with Kaz Nejatian, the CEO of Opendoor, shortly after the company reported its first quarter 2026 earnings, and we covered both what is happening inside the business right now and how he is thinking about Opendoor from the seat after coming over from Shopify.  The core of the conversation is how Kaz frames the company. He argues that Opendoor is a market maker rather than a prop desk or an asset manager, and that the model only works when you optimize for velocity instead of spread. Buying lots of homes and selling them quickly gives Opendoor a live information advantage over the rest of the housing market that no other participant has, and that advantage compounds as the customer base broadens beyond people who simply need to move fast. Please enjoy this Breakdown of Opendoor. For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ----- Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at ⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠. ----- This episode is brought to you by⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠Portrait Analytics⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - your centralized resource for AI-powered idea generation, thesis monitoring, and personalized report building. Built by buy-side investors, for investment professionals. We work in the background, helping surface stock ideas and thesis signposts to help you monetize every insight. In short, we help you understand the story behind the stock chart, and get to "go, or no-go" 10x faster than before. Sign-up for a free trial today at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠portraitresearch.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ----- Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠). Timestamps (00:00:00) Welcome to Business Breakdowns (00:02:24) Thesis Since Joining OPEN (00:04:49) OPEN is a Market Maker, not a Prop Desk (00:04:53) Opendoor's Advantages (00:07:37) Spread vs. Velocity (00:11:25) Customer Base (00:13:16) Attachment Profit Pool (00:15:45) Order of Product Rollouts (00:18:47) Friction from Attachments? (00:19:03) Lessons from Shopify: Solving for Friction (00:21:45) Investing vs. Profitability Balance (00:23:58) AI Inside Opendoor

Today, we are breaking down PriceSmart, the membership warehouse club operating across Central America, the Caribbean, and South America. I came away from this episode with a new appreciation for how a single retail concept and a single family have shaped the way much of the world shops. When you learn that Sol Price invented the modern club store, influenced Sam Walton, the founders of Home Depot, and the founders of Target, that his Price Club merged with Costco in 1993, and that his grandson now runs a separate company replicating the model across 12 emerging market countries, you start to see PriceSmart not as a mid cap retailer but as the third generation continuation of one of the most important ideas in modern American retail. I am joined by Markus Hansen, portfolio manager at Vontobel Asset Management. We start with Sol Price's founding of Fed Mart in the 1950s and the lineage that runs through Price Club, the Costco merger, and the 1993 spinoff that became today's company. We cover how 40% of operating earnings are locked in upfront each year through membership payments, why the company chooses to own its real estate and run its own logistics, and what happened to its stores when hurricanes hit Jamaica last season. For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ----- Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at ⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠. ----- This episode is brought to you by⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠Portrait Analytics⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - your centralized resource for AI-powered idea generation, thesis monitoring, and personalized report building. Built by buy-side investors, for investment professionals. We work in the background, helping surface stock ideas and thesis signposts to help you monetize every insight. In short, we help you understand the story behind the stock chart, and get to "go, or no-go" 10x faster than before. Sign-up for a free trial today at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠portraitresearch.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ----- Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠). Timestamps (00:00:00) Welcome to Business Breakdowns (00:02:34) Intro  (00:04:37) What is PriceSmart?  (00:07:48) The Sol Price Origin Story  (00:13:26) How It Compares to Costco and Sam's Club  (00:18:24) Geographic Expansion  (00:25:38) Logistics and Supply Chain  (00:28:09) Expanding Across Latin America  (00:32:47) Earnings Volatility Across Markets  (00:36:00) Margins and FX Exposure  (00:38:42) Capital Allocation  (00:45:30) Key Risks  (00:49:04) Valuation  (00:53:13) Lessons

Today, we are breaking down Altius Minerals, a Canadian royalty company that stands apart from the precious metals and oil and gas names that usually define the category. 17 people in Newfoundland control royalties over Canadian potash mines that supply 90 percent of the potash used in the US, along with 2.9 gigawatts of operating renewable power. I am joined by Luke Bridgeman, portfolio manager at Hosking Partners based in London. We start with Brian Dalton founding the business in a university dorm 29 years ago and how the company built its edge through a project generation model that turned $13 million of spend into $200 million of equity proceeds while keeping the royalties. We cover why Altius focuses on base metals rather than precious metals, how it extended the royalty structure into renewables where there is no land to claim, how countercyclical capital deployment has shaped nearly every important decision in the company's history, and what it means to run a $2 billion business with only 17 employees. Please enjoy this breakdown of Altius Minerals. For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ----- Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at ⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠. ----- This episode is brought to you by⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠Portrait Analytics⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - your centralized resource for AI-powered idea generation, thesis monitoring, and personalized report building. Built by buy-side investors, for investment professionals. We work in the background, helping surface stock ideas and thesis signposts to help you monetize every insight. In short, we help you understand the story behind the stock chart, and get to "go, or no-go" 10x faster than before. Sign-up for a free trial today at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠portraitresearch.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ----- Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠). Timestamps (00:00:00) Welcome to Business Breakdowns (00:04:20) What is Altius Minerals?  (00:04:52) What Are Base Metals?  (00:05:30) How Do Royalties Work?  (00:09:57) When Are Royalties Sold?  (00:11:04) Altius Origin Story  (00:12:24) How Did Altius Differentiate?  (00:13:35) Commodity Diversification  (00:15:51) Geographic Diversification  (00:17:37) Renewables Strategy  (00:19:50) The Listed Renewables Vehicle  (00:20:17) Renewables Financing Structure  (00:21:08) Renewables vs. Legacy Minerals  (00:22:04) Revenue Model: Volume x Price  (00:22:43) Portfolio Revenue Breakdown  (00:23:58) Do They Hedge Commodity Prices?  (00:24:13) Cost Structure & Overhead  (00:25:37) Capital Allocation Framework  (00:27:14) Buyback Criteria  (00:28:06) Use of Debt  (00:28:42) Renewables' Balance Sheet Impact  (00:30:42) Key Risks  (00:31:59) Why Do Precious Metal Royalties Trade at a Premium?  (00:32:47) Lessons from Altius

Today, we are breaking down Givaudan, the Swiss fragrance and flavor giant hiding in plain sight. I came away from this episode with a new way of seeing the world around me. When you learn that a single company is behind the scent of your shampoo, the taste of your burger, and the smell of your laundry, you start to realize just how much of daily life runs through a company most people have never heard of. I am joined by Jeremie Fastnacht, a fund manager at Banque de Luxembourg Investments based in Luxembourg. We get into what makes Givaudan, Givaudan, starting with its founding in 1895 Zurich and how it quietly became the dominant player in a market most investors overlook. We cover the structure of the flavor and fragrance industry, why switching costs are so remarkably high despite this being a tiny fraction of any client's costs, how the company operates more like a royalty business than a manufacturer, and what the risks look like now that a new management team has taken the helm. Please enjoy this breakdown of Givaudan. For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ----- Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at ⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠. ----- This episode is brought to you by⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠Portrait Analytics⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - your centralized resource for AI-powered idea generation, thesis monitoring, and personalized report building. Built by buy-side investors, for investment professionals. We work in the background, helping surface stock ideas and thesis signposts to help you monetize every insight. In short, we help you understand the story behind the stock chart, and get to "go, or no-go" 10x faster than before. Sign-up for a free trial today at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠portraitresearch.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ----- Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠). Timestamps (00:00:00) Welcome to Business Breakdowns (00:02:35) Episode Intro: Givaudan (00:03:25) How Flavors and Fragrances Shape Daily Life (00:05:28) Scent and Taste as Purchasing Drivers (00:07:57) Givaudan's Corporate History (00:10:26) Creating Flavors and Fragrances (00:13:57) The Royalty Model of Revenue (00:16:27) Why There's No Incentive to Switch Supplier (00:18:43) Market Size & Major Competitors (00:22:48) Trends Driving Growth in Emerging Markets (00:24:59) How Givaudan Became the Industry Leader (00:28:46) Margins and Customers in Each Business Unit (00:30:51) Givaudan's Financial Profile (00:35:16) Capital Allocation & Valuing Givaudan (00:37:58) CEO Succession & Other Major Risks (00:40:38) Lessons from Studying Givaudan

This episode was originally recorded in March 2025.  ​Today, we are breaking down the  global alternative asset manager, Apollo. I reflected on my personal experiences with Apollo for this episode, and there's a saying that hard work can beat talent when talent doesn't work hard. Well, Apollo has talent, and Apollo works really damn hard. They will do everything they can to protect their capital, so if you're on the other side of the table from them, you never feel fully comfortable. I am joined by Hunter Hopcroft, a financial analyst and writer based in New York. We get into what makes Apollo, Apollo, and Hunter share the backstory of how it was born out of Drexel Burnham and Michael Milkin’s DNA. We get into some of the early deals, the theme craving complexity, how they differ from the KKR or Blackstone, and the future of the industry. For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page here. ----- Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at ⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠. ----- This episode is brought to you by⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠Portrait Analytics⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - your centralized resource for AI-powered idea generation, thesis monitoring, and personalized report building. Built by buy-side investors, for investment professionals. We work in the background, helping surface stock ideas and thesis signposts to help you monetize every insight. In short, we help you understand the story behind the stock chart, and get to "go, or no-go" 10x faster than before. Sign-up for a free trial today at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠portraitresearch.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ----- Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠). Timestamps (00:00:00) Update on Apollo(00:02:56) Welcome to Business Breakdowns (00:05:45) Apollo's Current Landscape (00:10:41) Apollo's Founding and Early Days (00:13:35) Key Deals and Strategies (00:20:05) The 2000s and Financial Crisis (00:25:06) IPO and Public Transition (00:28:43) Leadership Transition to Mark Rowan (00:34:16) Rowan's Vision and Athene Merger (00:38:08) Investment Strategies of Alt Managers (00:39:24) The Athene Merger and Its Implications (00:41:26) Rowan's Breakthrough in Spread Generation (00:42:45) Innovative Asset Origination Platforms (00:47:38) Private Credit and Market Dynamics (00:49:45) The Future of Apollo and Private Credit (00:55:05) Evaluating Apollo's Business Model (01:08:29) Reputation and Evolution of Apollo (01:11:46) Lessons from Apollo

This conversation was originally released in February of 2025. We’re replaying this episode because Cognex sits right at the intersection of AI and robotics. As the market focuses more on physical AI and automation in 2026, machine vision is becoming an increasingly important part of that story. Today we are breaking down Cognex, the leader in machine vision. Cognex builds the cameras, sensors, and software that allow factories and logistics systems to see. Their technology inspects products, detects defects, reads barcodes, and guides robots across manufacturing lines and warehouses around the world. Cognex is not your typical recurring revenue story. It is a cyclical industrial business that has grown by repeatedly finding new “S-curves” in automation. From early semiconductor inspection to modern logistics systems and AI-driven vision, the company has spent decades expanding the applications of machine vision across industries. Our guest today is Brett Larson from NZS Capital. Brett walks us through the history of machine vision, Cognex’s unique culture and founder story, and the company’s position inside the broader automation ecosystem. We also discuss how Cognex sells into factories, the competitive dynamics with companies like Keyence, and why new technologies like deep learning could unlock the next wave of growth. For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page here.  ----- Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at ⁠colossus.com/subscribe⁠. ----- This episode is brought to you by⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠Portrait Analytics⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - your centralized resource for AI-powered idea generation, thesis monitoring, and personalized report building. Built by buy-side investors, for investment professionals. We work in the background, helping surface stock ideas and thesis signposts to help you monetize every insight. In short, we help you understand the story behind the stock chart, and get to "go, or no-go" 10x faster than before. Sign-up for a free trial today at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠portraitresearch.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ----- Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠). Timestamps (00:00:00) Sponsor: Portrait Analytics (00:01:42) Update on Cognex  (00:02:53) Welcome to Business Breakdowns  (00:03:41) Episode Intro  (00:05:09) What is Cognex and What They Do  (00:07:10) Hardware vs Software and Human Interaction  (00:07:58) Market Size of Machine Vision  (00:08:59) Cognex's Market Share and Positioning  (00:13:01) Sales Channels and Customer Types  (00:14:17) History and Origin of Cognex  (00:17:49) Deep Learning vs Rules-Based Programming Examples  (00:22:18) Customer Stickiness and Sales Contracts  (00:27:41) Understanding S-Curves and CapEx Cycles  (00:29:35) Culture and Leadership  (00:40:08) Valuation and Risks  (00:44:42) Key Lessons from Cognex