ASEAN Chair

China’s strategy to stay out of the US/Israeli war on Iran is working. Beijing seeks to safeguard not only oil flows, but Taiwan security and open trade networks as the US once again expends blood and treasure on war in Asia. Beijing is sticking to its policies of avoiding military entanglement, multilateral consensus building, active diplomatic engagement, “win-win” outcomes, and placing the UN at the core of international relations.With the conflict entering its fourth week and Donald Trump seen as increasingly delusional and erratic, overstretching yet further limited US forces and diminishing weapons stockpiles, there is little hope for a peaceful long-term security framework that includes the US.The Trump administration has not only repeated the mistakes of Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq, but remains blind to its own hubris and Donald Trumps narcissistic ambitions to reestablish American empire.As Middle East shipping is strangled, oil prices spike and instability intensifies, China’s power within global markets and its overall stability in sovereign bonds, Yuan trade and continued export growth signals that once again it is Beijing that has the most to gain from America's naked aggression and suicidal economic policies. Get full access to ASEAN Chair at aseanchair.substack.com/subscribe

Apple is lowering its App Store commission in China, a move believed to be a major concession in one of its most important markets. What's driving the change? How may it affect developers, consumers, and Apple's business model in the country? And could this signal a broader shift in the balance of power between regulators and Big Tech?Host TU Yun joins Professor Doug Guthrie, the Director of China Initiatives at the Thunderbird School of Global Management, Professor Liu Baocheng, the Director of the Center for International Business Ethics, University of International Business and Economics, and Professor Warwick Powell, Adjunct Professor, the Queensland University of Technology for a close look. Get full access to ASEAN Chair at aseanchair.substack.com/subscribe

Japan’s attempt to meddle in China’s internal affairs will fail both legally and morally -- U.S. expert“When it comes to China-Japan relations, China has always been on the right side of history, while Japan has sometimes been on the absolute worst side. This was a catastrophic moral failure by Japan in the past, and the same is beckoned again today should Tokyo continue down this dark path,” said a U.S. professor of politics and international relations.Xinhua News Get full access to ASEAN Chair at aseanchair.substack.com/subscribe

Chinese President Xi Jinping has visited South Korea for the first time in 11 years.He sat down with South Korean President Lee Jae-myung on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Gyeongiu.This came after years of tension after Seoul decided to host the US THAAD missile defense system in 2016.Are we witnessing a reset in China-South Korea relations? What is driving this shift, and could South Korea’s approach offer a model for other U.S. allies navigating relations with China?Host Zhao Ying is joined by Rong Ying, Chair Professor at the School of International Studies at Sichuan University; Lee Pei May, Assistant Professor of Political Science at the International Islamic University Malaysia; Digby James Wren, External Relations Advisor to the Royal Academy of Cambodia. Get full access to ASEAN Chair at aseanchair.substack.com/subscribe

Featured Contributor Dr. Yasir Masood explores the Global Power Shift:From Unipolar Dominance to Multipolar Adaptation with Professor Michael Dunford of the University of Sussex The global order is transitioning away from a unipolar system dominated by a single superpower, signalling a disruptive but transformative shift toward a more multipolar world. While the United States continues to leverage its financial and trade influence, the international system is evolving into one that prioritises equitable development, challenging historical patterns of inequality. Historically, the global framework perpetuated significant disparities, with few exceptions such as China, which defied odds to emerge as a major economic power. Today, nations and regions are actively pursuing alternatives to traditional Western-centric models. Initiatives like regional currencies, parallel payment systems, and new alliances—not merely reactive decoupling measures—reflect a strategic "global rebalancing." These efforts aim to reduce dependency on established financial networks and foster diversified economic ecosystems. The changing landscape underscores a critical pivot: the question is no longer about which nation leads but which adapts most effectively. As countries experiment with decentralized systems and partnerships, the focus shifts from hierarchical dominance to resilience and innovation. This transition, while fraught with short-term disruptions, could pave the way for a more inclusive international structure, mitigating the entrenched inequalities of the past. In this era of recalibration, adaptability emerges as the defining metric of success, signalling that the future global order will reward flexibility over hegemony.Editor's note: CGTN's First Voice provides instant commentary on breaking stories. The column clarifies emerging issues and better defines the news agenda, offering a Chinese perspective on the latest global events.https://news.cgtn.com/news/2025-04-12/Could-Trump-s-tariffs-turn-global-trade-topsy-turvy--1CvTIWyQncY/p.htmlWatch Full Video Get full access to ASEAN Chair at aseanchair.substack.com/subscribe

The Cannibalisation of allies and partners by the Trump administration highlights the increasing importance of China and its stabilising role for both the world economy and multilateralism.In the period from 1945, the US dominated global manufacturing with over 50% of the world’s total output.The US domination was manifest in its preponderant military and industrial complex,but it also began to decline almost immediately as the US attempted to subordinate the world economy and political activities to its own global vision of hegemony.And then there was the 1949 communist revolution and the imposition of a bamboo curtain by the Americans as they reneged on their Cairo declaration and decided to not return Taiwan directly to China. Get full access to ASEAN Chair at aseanchair.substack.com/subscribe

(00:00:15):Welcome to The Chair.(00:00:16):I'm your host, Dr. Vicky James Wren.(00:00:18):And today we're having a quick look at the Australian election and our Labor's(00:00:21):leading in the polls by about 10 points.(00:00:25):But what that really means is if they lose five, it's going to be 50-50.(00:00:27):So 45 to 55 for Labor.(00:00:28):Now, Australia is in trouble.(00:00:36):the economy is going to have and look the imf said this quite a few years ago uh 10(00:00:41):years of declining living standards so now labor has gone from a couple of a couple(00:00:46):of surpluses for the last few years now it's running going to go straight back into(00:00:50):deficits and that money is going to be going into health care(00:00:55):renewables, education, and the biggest one, of course, defense.(00:01:02):Why, of course, I'm not really sure why, of course, but housing is also big.(00:01:07):Medicare, so giving better medications and so forth.(00:01:12):All that's going to come under(00:01:14):conflict with the Trump administration's policies towards Australia and as I said(00:01:18):with the aluminum or aluminium as the Australians say that's going to be(00:01:24):problematic as well look it's very small percentage of GDP but you know it's the(00:01:27):compound effect of all of the tariffs and the effect of the tariffs on other(00:01:33):countries which trade with Australia and that's primarily China of course(00:01:37):And so the boom,(00:01:38):sort of the mini boom,(00:01:40):let's say,(00:01:40):that's been going on with minerals,(00:01:41):you know,(00:01:42):there was a really big boom back in the 90s and 2000s,(00:01:45):but that's over.(00:01:46):But in the last few years,(00:01:47):there's been another boom as China's economy has switched into the new productive forces,(00:01:53):EVs,(00:01:53):of course,(00:01:54):and solar panels and so forth.(00:01:55):And now Australia is also transitioning and they rely on China for that.(00:02:00):There's nowhere else they're going to be able to get this,(00:02:03):you know,(00:02:03):affordably,(00:02:03):so good,(00:02:04):fast and cheap,(00:02:05):right?(00:02:06):So that is the permanent dilemma the Australian government is in,(00:02:09):balancing their security arrangements with the Americans,(00:02:11):with their trade relationship with China.(00:02:14):Now,(00:02:15):China is far and away the biggest trade partner of Australia,(00:02:19):and the budget doesn't really mention that,(00:02:23):according to all of the information that I've been able to access.(00:02:26):And you can read this in the ASEAN Chair.(00:02:29):ASEAN Chair that has released...(00:02:32):once a week there's updates on that there are other updates daily you can check(00:02:36):daily but what we're looking at here is a very difficult election look I think(00:02:41):Labor's probably going to win it I'll call it and say they're going to win but it(00:02:44):look it could be very very narrow win and it's possible that the Greens may hold(00:02:48):the balance of power or the teals as well which is you know young educated urban(00:02:52):elites may hold the balance of power in the Senate and(00:02:57):And an unlikely outcome,(00:02:58):but possible outcome,(00:02:59):is that they may hold the balance of power in the House as well.(00:03:02):That is not good because,(00:03:04):as we can see,(00:03:05):it's happened in Europe with all of the political turmoil in Europe.(00:03:09):Weak coalitions just cannot hold against the tariff and Trump effect.(00:03:16):And so I think that's also true here in Australia.(00:03:20):So one has to look very, very carefully at that.(00:03:23):So if you're voting, just keep that in mind.(00:03:27):Donald Trump really was asked the other day about AUKUS and he had to ask the journalist,(00:03:31):what does that mean?(00:03:32):He didn't really know.(00:03:33):Now,(00:03:33):it doesn't mean he doesn't know about submarines and he doesn't know about(00:03:35):Australia's importance to the American security framework,(00:03:38):you know,(00:03:38):forward posture into Asia.(00:03:40):And that's what it is, forward posture.(00:03:42):You know,(00:03:43):I'd be very,(00:03:44):very worried about listening to John Anderson's podcast and YouTube channel where(00:03:50):he interviewed the former Home Affairs Minister of Australia and they(00:03:54):They were talking about a tyrannical China and Australia can't live with a China(00:03:58):like that and so forth and so on.(00:03:59):But this is absolutely not true.(00:04:00):Look,(00:04:00):China is not in any way interested in invading Australia or taking over Australia(00:04:07):or anything else.(00:04:08):What China is interested is stability.(00:04:10):And Australia needs to be in stability as well.(00:04:13):And the greatest source of instability in the world today is the United States.(00:04:17):So this security arrangement...(00:04:18):and the exorbitant,(00:04:20):and I mean ultra-exorbitant cost of these submarines,(00:04:23):which is basically just three really old Virginia-class American submarines based(00:04:28):out of Western Australia and possibly some others based out of Wollongong or south(00:04:32):of Sydney on the East Coast.(00:04:34):uh i mean they're just american submarines being based out of australia uh there's(00:04:38):technical upgrading and all that sort of thing for the australians so nuclear(00:04:42):energy and things like that and the liberals uh you know the opposition they're(00:04:46):promoting nuclear energy which is really not going to work very well but there is(00:04:50):concerns of course about the(00:04:52):the grid and being able to give stable enough energy and low cost for consumers but(00:04:57):stable enough energy for you know the AI wave that's happening right now.(00:05:02):Huge data centers need really reliable power and they quite often need enormous(00:05:08):water resources for cooling and that means being able to build desalination plants(00:05:13):in Australia's case because water is something Australia does not have a lot of.(00:05:17):Now, let's think about China and its Australian exports.(00:05:21):Australia is going to maintain and to get growth because it's anemic at the moment.(00:05:27):To get growth, Australia is going to have to have a better relationship with China.(00:05:31):And so the Trump tariff effect and...(00:05:34):the new cabinet that he has,(00:05:37):Hegseth as a military defense secretary,(00:05:41):Marco Rubio,(00:05:42):who's,(00:05:42):you know,(00:05:43):basically a neocon,(00:05:45):totally anti-China.(00:05:47):He's going to try and play Philippines.(00:05:48):He's going to try and play Taiwan.(00:05:50):But Australia cannot be falling into that.(00:05:52):Now, Albanese, he has, and his government has...(00:05:55):navigated a careful path along that line,(00:05:58):but how much further they can go is going to be difficult.(00:06:01):But look,(00:06:02):I can see right now that although public opinion is not really changing(00:06:08):definitively toward China,(00:06:12):mainly because of the Rupert Murdoch News Corporation effect,(00:06:15):which dominates Australian media to an extraordinary amount,(00:06:20):And the idea that the ABC, that's the national broadcaster, needs to keep a measure of balance.(00:06:27):But it's not really watched by most Australians.(00:06:31):The mediascape is still anti-China and I think that's the next step that has to change.(00:06:36):But Twiggy Forrest,(00:06:37):one of the richest men in Australia who owns enormous iron ore mines in Western(00:06:43):Australia and made his fortune in the iron ore to China trade and is still doing(00:06:48):very well with that,(00:06:49):has just succeeded in suing Meta or Facebook for things related to using his image(00:06:56):uh for scams so online scamming being run by facebook and not just in australia but(00:07:03):globally uh and as it puts that puts a very bad light on on the scams that have(00:07:09): Get full access to ASEAN Chair at aseanchair.substack.com/subscribe

The Biden neo-cons are attempting to trap Trump in sanctions, weapons and loans to Gaza and Ukraine. A deep dive into the implications for G7 leaders as they drop like flies from the political fallout.The rapid turnover of G7 leaders has become a farce. Economic turmoil, a major change in global industrial investment and a river of US sanctions and the Team Trump tariff avalanche expected this year provide the bulk of today’s episode.A quick update on ASEAN and Cambodia FDI and the outlook for Trump tariffs on the world’s largest trade partnership between China and ASEAN.Australia’s sustainability transition is highly dependent on China’s EVs, but so is the UK and many are countries.Like, subscribe and share…https://www.patreon.com/c/TheChair844https://x.com/DGB365/https://www.linkedin.com/in/dgb365/ Get full access to ASEAN Chair at aseanchair.substack.com/subscribe

Belt and Road updateIn this episode we cover Cambodia's Techo Funan Canal and China's involvement and investment attitude as well as a update on risks to the Belt and Road in West Asia, Red Sea, Mediterranean and Africa.Check out my Multipolar Peace friends on YouTube below.https://teacup.media/chinahistorypodcastTranscript Get full access to ASEAN Chair at aseanchair.substack.com/subscribe

We are forming a global alliance against globalism, and neutrality studies is part of that. Don't get confused, let's just live with the contradiction.Last Friday we held the second panel of independent social media contributors, discussing the new multipolarity we are now in, why we think that the collective west is being collectively stupid about it, and what we—and you—can do to oppose the lunacy.The Basics:* Multipolarity is not only an emerging reality, it is also a preferable foundation for global order.* Neutrality is an important tool within the overall mix of how nations view themselves and position themselves in the context of integrated and indivisible security.* NATO is a dangerous organisation and its expansion globally is undesirable and contrary to achieving a sustainable peace.Work in progress.More here: Multipolarpeace.comContributors:Dr. Warwick PowellDr. Pascal Lottaz: Neutrality StudiesJerry Grey: Jerry's Take on China Youtube,    / @jerrystakeonchina799  Arnaud Bertrand: Twitter, https://twitter.com/rnaudbertrand?s=2...Dr. Jeff Rich: Burning Archive Youtube,    / @theburningarchive   Substack,Dr. Digby Wren Substack, https://substack.com/@digbywrenDr. David Oualaalou: Geopolitical Trends Youtube,    / @geopoliticaltrends   S.L. Kanthan Substack,Twitter, https://twitter.com/kanthan2030?s=21&...Einar Tangen Linkedin, https://www.linkedin.com/in/ehtangen/...Dr. John Pang Twitter, https://twitter.com/jynpang?s=21&t=Oe...ASEAN Chair is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to ASEAN Chair at aseanchair.substack.com/subscribe