IMF warns conflict could tip global economy into recession

Iran has announced that the Strait of Hormuz is open, but the Secretary General of the International Maritime Organisation tells us he wouldn't advise ships to use it, yet. Andrew Peach looks at how the impact of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is continuing to affect oil and petrol prices. Elsewhere the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have resumed dealings with Venezuela, nearly two decades after its former president Hugo Chávez cut ties. And we look at what's happening in the gaming industry where its stars are at the BAFTA Games Awards in London. Global business news, with live guests and contributions from Asia, Latin America and the USA. (Picture: A vessel at the Strait of Hormuz, off the coast of Oman’s Musandam province on the 12th of April, 2026. Credit: Reuters)

Iran's Foreign Minister says ships can again use the crucial Persian Gulf sea route while a ceasefire continues to hold. Markets have reacted sharply to the news. The price of Brent Crude fell 10 percent on the news. Shares in oil companies have fallen, while shares in airlines and other heavy energy users have risen sharply. And we hear from Lebanon about how the country's economy is faring.

The head of the International Energy Agency Fatih Birol says the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger what he calls the largest energy crisis the world has ever faced. He's warned Europe may have as little as six weeks of jet fuel left. It comes as airlines across the world struggle with fuel supplies and cost. Airlines in Nigeria are warning they may suspend flights from Monday over soaring jet fuel prices and South Korean Airlines say they will impose the highest level of surcharges they can on flights in May as global oil prices surge due to the tensions in the Middle East.Netflix's second quarter profits fall short of expectations and it announced that its chairman and co-founder Reed Hastings is stepping down from the board after 29 years. Netflix stepped back from a battle to control Warner Bros Discovery earlier this year. Sweden, one of the most technologically advanced countries in the world, will be going back to basics with the use of physical books, pens, and paper for their students, but some tech companies are concerned that the move could damage pupils' job prospects. And we explore why Allbirds whose trainers were worn by Hollywood stars and President Obama are getting out of footwear and into artificial intelligence.

That’s a warning from the International Energy Agency boss, Fatih Birol as the Middle East conflict continues to disrupt energy supplies. So what could that mean for airlines and travel?Plus, how did China’s economy grow by 5%, faster than expected despite the Iran war?And Australia’s fuel supplies face added pressure after a major fire at one of the country’s two oil refineries.

President Trump has threatened to fire US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell if he does not step aside next month, raising concerns over central bank independence and market uncertainty. Pakistan remains involved in diplomatic efforts over the US, Israel and Iran conflict, as questions grow over whether this could bring any economic benefit amid domestic pressure. And travellers across several European airports are facing long delays due to the EU’s new entry and exit system, with some missing flights after hours in queues. (Photo: U.S. President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speak during a tour of the Federal Reserve Board building, in Washington DC, July 24, 2025. Credit: REUTERS/Kent Nishimura)

World finance ministers meeting in Washington have been voicing their anger and frustration at the US because of the financial strains being placed on the global economy caused by its military offensive in the Middle East. Rachel Reeves from the UK described the US-Israeli war with Iran as 'folly' while France's finance minister Roland Lescure called for renewed efforts to unblock the Strait of Hormuz. The calls come as Iran's military widens its threats on shipping the Gulf to include the Red Sea and the Gulf of Oman - if the US naval blockade of Iranian ports continues. The International Monetary Fund has been warning of the risk of a global recession at its Spring Conference in Washington DC. There was further evidence of these concerns today. Hermes is the latest fashion house, after LVMH and Gucci-owner Kering to say sales have been weaker than expected at the start of this year...with spending hit both in the Middle East, but also fewer tourists visiting Paris and buying handbags and designer clothes. And there has been continued unrest in parts of India over wages, as the increased costs of living caused by the crisis continue to hurt the economy. Also in the programme - are hedge fund managers cashing in on the uncertainty of whether firms will receive refunds on tariffs?And we discover why Google is clamping down on so-called ‘back button hijacking’...when sites mess with your browser so you can’t leave.Presenter: Leanna Byrne Senior Producer: Craig Henderson

With the Global recession warning from the International Monetary Fund, Andrew Peach looks at rising oil, gas and food prices, and how they could force central banks to keep interest rates higher for longer.Also, European airlines call for emergency support as the conflict disrupts aviation.And we ask whether America’s tipping culture improves service or simply keeps wages low.(Photo: People walk in front of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) HQ2 building in Washington, DC, USA, 13 April 2026. Credit: SHAWN THEW/EPA/Shutterstock)

In its World Economic Outlook report the International Monetary Fund says that, in a worst case scenario -  where oil, gas and food prices spike and remain high this year and next - global growth could fall below 2% in 2026. That's if the US-Israel war with Iran continues and high energy prices persist. It said the most severe conditions that could lead to a worldwide slowdown would include oil prices reaching an average $110 per barrel this year and hitting $125 in 2027. Based on these assumptions, the IMF said inflation could reach as much as 6% next year. This could force central banks to increase interest rates to slow the pace of price rises. We hear how Africa's fuel crunch continues - and hopes for a more stable future...Evergrande was once China’s biggest real estate firm, before its debt crisis sent shockwaves through the wider economy.. Today the founder of the collapsed property giant Hui Ka Yan pleaded guilty to a series of fraud charges. It's a case that marks a major moment in the fallout from the company’s collapse.And - how a gold pocket watch owned by a hero of the Sinking of the Titanic could fetch up to one hundred and thirty five thousand dollars at auction...Presenter Leanna Byrne Senior Producer: Craig Henderson

As President Trump blocks ships travelling to and from Iran through the Strait of Hormuz, how will this affect Iranian oil exports?The Philippines has suspended taxes on paraffin and cooking gas to help keep food prices low; we hear from a chef who tells us how this will impact his restaurant business.With Victor Orban ousted, what does the future hold for Hungary under newly-elected Peter Magyar’s leadership?And, Bollywood icon, Asha Bhosle has died leaving behind an over $20 million empire of restaurants and music royalties.

The US has begun its blockade  of the key shipping route the Strait of Hormuz after talks with Iran failed to reach an agreement. President Donald Trump says it's in response to Iran "knowingly failing" to reopen the strait. Iran says the blockade is illegal and has accused the US of piracy. It's estimated that around 800 vessels are stuck in the Straits, many loaded with cargo. As the blockade begins we look at what guidance is being offered to shipping companies shipping companies.As the people of Hungary wake up to a new political leadership we look at the challenges facing its ailing economy after Viktor Orban steps aside, and closer ties with the EU are firmly on the agenda for the winner Peter Magyar and his Tisza party.And we pay tribute to the woman who inspired the 90s classic song 'Brimful of Asha' as thousands gather in Mumbai to celebrate the life of one of Bollywood's biggest playback singers Asha Bhoslay  who has died aged 92 and leaves behind an empire worth almost 27-million-dollars.