Volatility Views 697: Nothing Makes Sense

Weak jobs data sends stocks higher, VIX futures remain stubbornly elevated above spot, and volatility products deliver some puzzling results. Mark Longo, Dr. Russell Rhoads and Jim Carroll examine the conflicting signals driving the equity and volatility markets. The panel breaks down VIX futures term structure, persistent contango and the risks surrounding a narrow, tech-led rally. They also debate the prospect of perpetual VIX futures and how funding rates and arbitrage could affect existing futures, options and volatility trading strategies. Plus, Russell's Weekly Rundown explores unusual VIX options activity, including far out-of-the-money calls and deep in-the-money put spreads. The crew examines a sizable October-to-November call spread roll, compares the volatility ETP landscape across VXX, UVXY, UVIX, SVIX, SVXY and SVOL, and discusses a brokerage restriction that interrupts Russell's weekend volatility trade. Then it's time for another fiercely contested round of VIX forecasts in the Crystal Ball.

VIX kept drifting lower even as the market swung through another eventful week. Mark Longo is joined by Russell Rhoads, Mark Sebastian and Brian Overby to examine the gap between current volatility and the risk priced into VIX futures. The panel digs into heavy VIX call activity, unusual weekly options trades, the potential effect of midterm election options on VIX, and ways to structure a volatility trade when upside calls are expensive. They also revisit SVIX and UVIX, debate whether Treasury yields could become a bigger source of market stress, and make their VIX predictions for next week. Plus, Russell gives the editor a little extra censoring work.

The Fed delivered another volatile week, but the market's rapid rebound left VIX back in the mid-teens and raised fresh questions about whether traders are becoming too complacent. Host Mark Longo and Russell Rhoads examine the market's reaction to the Fed, the widening gap between VIX cash and October VIX futures, growing concerns in the Treasury market, and the potential catalysts that could finally awaken volatility. They also break down the busiest VIX options trades of the week, including heavy upside call activity, renewed interest in VIX puts, an unusual multi-expiration spread, and the possibility of daily VIX expirations. Plus, Russell's weekend UVIX strategy finally returns to the winner's circle, volatility traders target upside in VXX, and the hosts make their latest VIX predictions in the Crystal Ball.

Volatility wakes up from its late-summer slumber on this episode of Volatility Views as Mark Longo and Russell Rhoads break down a surprisingly active stretch across the volatility markets. VIX briefly pushed above 18 before retreating, VIX options volume came roaring back, traders targeted everything from near-term puts to triple-digit VIX calls, and the volatility futures curve offered some interesting clues about what the market expects next. Plus, Russell breaks down some fascinating VIX weekly trades, including one that landed almost perfectly at settlement, we examine the latest action in SVIX, UVIX, UVXY and VXX, and Mark celebrates a rare two-week Crystal Ball bullseye after nearly nailing the VIX level from the previous episode.

The theta clock is ticking on the volatility markets! On this episode of Volatility Views, Mark Longo is joined by Brian Overby from OptionsPlaybook.com and Henry Schwartz from Cboe for a deep dive into a surprisingly quiet volatility landscape. With VIX dipping into the 14 handle and VVIX hovering near unusually low levels, has volatility simply gone to sleep for the dog days of summer—or is premium getting too cheap to ignore? The crew discusses whether this is an attractive time to buy volatility, why VIX spikes have become increasingly difficult to monetize, and how traders can potentially take advantage when those brief volatility explosions finally arrive. They also break down the VIX futures term structure, some massive VIX options positions and intriguing upside trades, plus the latest action in SVIX, UVIX, UVXY and VXX. Brian also shares an interesting options strategy in SpaceX before the crew heads into the Crystal Ball to forecast where VIX might be headed next. And somewhere along the way, Henry introduces what may be the next must-have accessory for every options trader—the Theta Clock.

On this episode of Volatility Views, host Mark Longo is joined by Russell Rhoads, Mark Sebastian, and Jim Carroll to ask whether the volatility market is practically daring traders to sell vol. The crew breaks down a wild week featuring Treasury intervention, Scott Bessent's message to the bond market, and the growing debate over whether a "Bessent put" is helping keep volatility contained. With VIX struggling to gain much traction and the VIX futures curve sitting in healthy contango, is the market signaling that short vol is still the place to be—or is complacency setting traders up for a surprise? They also dig into the latest VIX options activity, including massive VIX rolls, heavy upside call trading, the continuing fascination with cheap VIX puts, and some unusual trades way out on the volatility curve. Plus, the team checks in on SVIX, UVIX, UVXY and VXX, examine an earnings season where realized moves have finally fallen short of expectations, and look ahead to Nvidia and the potential volatility catalysts waiting around the corner.

The volatility survivors are back! After surviving tornado sirens, wild weather and another relentless week of declining volatility, Mark Longo is joined by Russell Rhoads, Mark Sebastian and special guest Rich Excell to break down everything happening across the volatility landscape. On this episode, the crew discusses the continued grind higher in equities and lower in VIX, why the bond and stock markets appear to be watching two very different movies, and whether volatility could completely melt down as we head deeper into the dog days of summer. They also dig into the growing fascination with VIX puts, including the suddenly popular 15 strike, unusual activity across the VIX options market, a massive September-to-October/November VIX call roll, the latest action in SVIX, UVIX, UVXY and VXX, Russell's intriguing weekly VIX trades, and much more. Plus, could VIX actually trade with a 12 handle before Jackson Hole? And what are our volatility survivors forecasting for next week?

The VIX put mystery may finally be solved! On this episode of Volatility Views with Russell Rhoads and Mark Sebastian, we dig into the unusual deep-in-the-money VIX put spreads that have been puzzling us and uncover the margin dynamics that could help explain why traders keep putting them on. We also break down a wild week in volatility, including the plunge in VIX, the latest VIX futures term structure, notable VIX options flow, and the continuing fallout from reverse splits in the volatility ETP space. Plus, the SPCX madness continues. We examine the massive activity in far out-of-the-money SPCX calls, discuss the inverse ETF apparently behind the trades, and explore whether there could be a method to this options madness. All that plus single-stock futures, unusual Rocket Lab options activity, our latest volatility predictions, and much more.

The Volatility Nomad returns! On this episode of Volatility Views, Mark Longo and Dr. Russell Rhoads welcome back Michael Listman, aka UVXY Trader, who joins the show from the UK after months of trading his way across Europe. The crew breaks down another wild week for the volatility markets, including the brief VIX spike above 20, the post-Fed volatility collapse, a surprisingly subdued VIX futures curve, and whether the market is becoming a little too comfortable heading into the fall. Michael also takes us inside life as a traveling volatility trader and explains how being a "volatility nomad" has changed his approach to risk and position management. We dig into his current strategies involving UVXY, SVIX and VXX, seasonality in volatility ETPs, longer-dated positions, pair trades, short straddles and more. Plus, we examine the latest unusual VIX options activity, including some truly extreme upside strikes, revisit Russell's Microsoft earnings trade, and peer into the Crystal Ball for where VIX could be headed next.

Volatility finally showed signs of life this week—but as traders have come to expect, the spike didn't last. On this episode of Volatility Views, Mark Longo is joined by Dr. Russell Rhoads to dissect another unusual week in the volatility markets. The hosts examine why VIX briefly pushed toward 20 before quickly retreating, despite geopolitical tensions, AI spending concerns, and a sharp selloff in technology stocks. They also break down the latest VIX futures term structure, analyze the week's most intriguing VIX options trades, discuss whether markets are underpricing geopolitical risk, and explain why Microsoft's upcoming earnings could be one of the biggest volatility events of the summer. In this episode: Why VIX couldn't sustain its move toward 20 AI spending concerns from Google and Tesla shake the market What the VIX futures curve is signaling Dr. Russell Rhoads' Weekly Rundown of unusual VIX options trades Is the market ignoring geopolitical risk? Why Microsoft earnings could be the next major volatility catalyst Crystal Ball predictions for next week's VIX