Volatility Views 654: Halloween Spooktacular

HOST: Mark Longo, The Options Insider Media Group CO-HOST: Mark Sebastian, The Option Pit CO-HOST: Russell Rhoads, Indiana University Kelley School of Business With an appearance by Brian Overby, Options Playbook Radio!   In this Halloween-themed episode of Volatility Views, host Mark Longo is joined by regular contributors Mark Sebastian and Russell Rhoads, as well as a special guest appearance by Brian Overby. The discussion focuses on the nuances of volatility trading, touching on the performance and volume of vol-related ETFs like UVIX and SVXY, the impact of lofty P/E ratios on market sentiment, and the effects of the latest Fed actions. The show also delves into listener questions, weekly reviews of significant volatility trades, and the dynamics of overwriting trades. The episode concludes with predictions for VIX levels for the upcoming week.  

HOST: Mark Longo, The Options Insider Media Group CO-HOST: Russell Rhoads, Indiana University Kelley School of Business CO-HOST: Mark Sebastian, The Option Pit GUEST: Scott Nations, Nations Indexes In this episode, we discuss the significant movements in volatility over the past week, including the aggressive sell-off in volatility and its causes. We also talk about the behavior of zero-DTE options and the influence of trading strategies on the market. The episode also covers the latest in VIX options trading, with a special segment on unusual trades, the current state of volatility ETPs, and predictions for the next week's volatility landscape.   

Host: Mark Longo, The Options Insider Media Group Co-Host: Mark Sebastian, The Option Pit Co-Host: Russell Rhoads, Indiana University Kelley School of Business In this episode, the team dives deep into the recent surge in market volatility, analyzing the influx in VIX trading activity and discussing the potential for significant market shifts. Key highlights include a detailed look at massive trades in the VIX options space, the potential introduction of highly leveraged ETPs such as 3x VIX ETPs, and the possible implications of a 'crypto doom loop' triggered by a Bitcoin crash. The episode also features a breakdown of the recent trading behavior in vol ETPs like SVIX, UVIX, and UVXY, and a lively discussion forecasting future volatility levels. 

Host: Mark Longo, The Options Insider Media Group Co-Host: Russell Rhoads, Indiana University Kelley School of Business Co-Host: Mark Sebastian, The Option Pit In this episode of Volatility Views, we dive deep into the world of volatility with a specific focus on the recent VIX activity, options trading, and market reactions. Discussions include the sudden spike in VIX, significant call option trading, especially around the October 35 strikes, and strategies for monetizing these moves. We also cover the impact of recent tweets by Trump on market volatility and provide a comprehensive analysis of the VIX futures term structure. Additionally, there is significant trading volume noted in UVXY, illustrating a broader market reaction to the volatility spike. The episode wraps up with predictions and considerations for the next week's volatility.  

Host: Mark Longo, The Options Insider Radio Network Co-Host: Russell "Dr. Vix" Rhoads, Indiana University Kelley School of Business Co-Host: Andrew "The Rock Lobster" Giovinazzi, The Option Pit   VIX Stays Muted: Why the VIX is stuck at 16 while the S&P hits new highs during the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. Gold vs. VIX: Listeners weigh in on the better gauge of market fear. Inside the Quants: Dr. Vix's discusses noteworthy highlights from several recent volatility and trading conferences, including exclusive takeaways on "Beta Vega" and the future of vol research. Volume Explosion: 1.4 BILLION options contracts traded in September. Crystal Ball: Our VIX predictions for next week

In this episode, Mark, Andrew Giovinazzi (The Option Pit) and Russell Rhoads (Indiana University) delve into the current state of market volatility, discussing the impact of an anticipated government shutdown, the fluctuating volumes in VIX options trading, and the contrasting signals from gold and VIX as indicators of market sentiment. The episode explores the latest developments in the volatility trading world, including compelling options strategies and a sneak peek at a quantitative model predicting future VIX levels.   01:03 Welcome to Volatility Views 02:24 Market Updates and Analysis 17:44 VIX and Gold as Market Sentiment Gauges 22:13 VIX Futures Term Structure 34:42 Top 10 VIX Trades of the Week 36:28 Russell's Weekly Rundown 52:08 VIX ETPs and Market Sentiment 54:25 Crystal Ball Predictions 01:00:18 Closing Remarks and Resources

Mark Longo, Scott Nations (Nations Indexes) and Andrew Giovinazzi (The Option Pit), provide comprehensive analyses on recent volatility developments, including the Federal Reserve's rate decisions and their market impacts. They discuss various volatility indices, trading strategies, and notable market movements.    01:03 Welcome to Volatility Views 02:23 Market Analysis  07:46 Volatility Review and Analysis 17:12 VIX Futures and Options Insights 33:26 Top VIX Options of the Week 37:02 Unusual VIX Trades and Strategies 42:22 Inverse Volatility Products 46:20 Volatility ETP Landscape 49:56 Listener Questions and Insights 53:14 VIX Predictions for Next Week 01:00:03 Closing Remarks and Resources  

In this episode, hosts Mark Longo from The Options Insider, Mark Sebastian from Option Pit, and Russell Rhoads from the University of Indiana dive deep into the latest developments in the volatility market. The trio discusses bond volatility, VIX options, and the curious behavior of the VIX ahead of a highly anticipated Federal Reserve meeting. They also look at VIX-related ETPs and make their weekly predictions for the VIX. Timestamps [0:00] Introduction  [3:20] The volatility review: market performance and VIX analysis. [7:15] Discussion on bond volatility and the surprising calm before the Fed meeting. [12:30] VIX term structure and futures analysis. [16:45] Russell's Weekly Rundown: analysis of specific VIX options trades. [25:00] VIX options paper and trade activity. [29:00] Inverse volatility and VIX ETPs. [32:15] Discussion on a potential Fed surprise and its market impact. [36:00] The Crystal Ball: VIX predictions for the upcoming week. [40:15] Final thoughts and how to follow the hosts.

This episode of Volatility Views discusses the recent market volatility, particularly in response to the non-farm payrolls report. Mark Longo and Russell Rhoads (Indiana University Kelley School of Business) analyze the impact of the economic data on VIX cash and futures, highlighting the surprising downturn after an initial market rally. They examine the VIX futures curve, noting the significant spread between the September and October contracts. The episode also delves into a discussion about the explosive growth of options trading volume and whether the options market has become so large that it is now "wagging the dog" of the underlying stock market. They also review VIX option volume for the week, pointing out a high number of contracts traded, including some unusual trades and large spreads. The show concludes with their weekly VIX predictions for the following week. Show Notes: 1:00 Welcome  3:50 Volatility Review: Non-farm Payrolls Report 6:30 Discussion on Market Reaction and Fed Rate Cuts 9:50 VIX Futures and Volatility Surface Analysis 12:40 Conversation about Options Volume Growth and the "Tail Wagging the Dog" 16:40 Discussion on Jane Street in India and Single Stock Futures 18:50 VIX Options Volume Review (Top 10) 21:05 Russell Rhoads' Weekly Rundown (Unusual Trades) 27:50 Host's Breakdown of Daily VIX Volume 30:00 VIX ETPs and Inverse Volatility Products 33:30 The Crystal Ball: Weekly VIX Predictions 36:30 Closing Remarks   

In this episode of Volatility Views, hosts Mark Longo, Russell Rhoads, and Mark Sebastian discuss the unusual market behavior of a Friday sell-off after a week of bullish momentum. They analyze the reasons behind the market's sudden shift to the red, including a surprising reaction to recent Fed commentary and pre-holiday weekend risk management. The show delves into the VIX and VIX futures curve, highlighting unusual calendar spreads and a large-volume trade in out-of-the-money October calls. The hosts also review volatility ETPs like SVIX, UVIX, and UVXY, noting the "air pocket" between futures and cash that benefits inverse volatility products. The show concludes with their "Crystal Ball" predictions for the following week's VIX level. Timestamps 2:02: The Volatility Review 2:15: Market sell-off and VIX pop 3:50: Mark Sebastian's market commentary 7:46: Russell Rhoads market commentary 11:59: VIX futures curve analysis 13:58: Russell Rhoads analysis of the back end of the curve 16:30: VIX options trading 18:50: Russell's Weekly Rundown of specific trades 22:56: Discussion of the "I Can't Drive 55" trades (wild out-of-the-money calls) 24:28: Most active VIX options for the week 30:57: Mark Sebastian's key takeaways from VIX options activity 32:00: Inverse Volatility ETFs (SVIX and VYLD) 34:55: UVIX and UVXY analysis 37:25: The Crystal Ball segment (VIX predictions) 40:50: Russell and Mark's final thoughts