The Truth About the U.S. Consumer

With the government currently shutdown, investors are struggling to determine the true health of the U.S. economy. Key among the concerns is the strength of the U.S. consumer. As the old saying goes: “how goes the U.S. consumer is how goes the U.S. economy.” So, have tariffs impacted the price of goods or consumer behavior? What is the U.S. consumer buying? If the focus on ‘need to have’ goods and services or ‘nice to have’? How are companies getting tired consumers to their stores and websites? Finally, what impact will AI have on consumer spending in the future? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the current consumer market, and attempt to answer any questions about the strength of the U.S. consumer.  

This week, the Federal government officially ceased all "non-essential" activities. Unfortunately, this was widely anticipated due to differences of opinion in healthcare spending on Capitol Hill. However, what it all means for the average American isn’t completely clear. People want to know: What is a government shutdown and what is it not? What or how have we gotten to this point? What is the practical impact on day-to-day economic activity? What are the long-term ramifications? What is the likelihood this will happen again? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent government shutdown, its potential causes and possible outcomes.

On September 17th, 2025, the Federal Reserve cut the target overnight lending rate between member banks. This was as expected. However, it seems not everyone is completely clear on what it means. So…. What is a Fed rate cut and what is it not? What had the investment markets been waiting for the Fed to cut? What might this mean for mortgage rates? Or for consumer debt? Finally, how will this impact corporate America? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris give a little class on Fed Rate Cuts 101, and discuss some of the potential ramifications of this most recent one.

What does it mean when the Fed meets and doesn’t do anything? When the Bureau of Economic Analysis says the economy grew 3.0% when it really didn’t? When the Bureau of Labor Statistics announces the labor markets are stronger than anyone believes they really are? When all official measures of inflation don’t seem to reflect the consumer’s reality? Essentially, what is the truth behind the headlines and all of the noise? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris dissect a busy week of economic releases, earnings announcements and Fed meetings, and try to make sense of it all.

This week, Democratic voters in New York elected Zohran Mamdani to be their candidate for the mayoral election in November. Perhaps not surprisingly, the 33-year old’s popularity with the younger generations helped to catapult to victory. However, his political platform and campaign processes are giving the traditional elites the fits. Rent freezes? Free public transportation. Free childcare? Government-run grocery stores? Higher taxes for corporations and the so-called 1%? A $30/hour minimum wage? Regulating delivery apps? It is very aggressive and more than a little bit idealistic. The question remains: why do these economically questionable positions appeal to younger voters?   In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent mayoral primaries in New York, and analyze the winner’s appeal to younger voters. The title is an allusion to a famous headline in New York during the Ford Administration….when Gerald Ford essentially blocked a financial bailout for the city.

This week, the Federal Open Market Committee met, and didn’t cut the overnight rate. This even though its economic projections were far from robust. Somewhat frustratingly, the Fed reported it thinks the long-term growth rate for the US economy is around 1.8%. This is well less than the historical average, and would cause our deficit to balloon even more than forecast. Further, the President’s tariff wars appear to have the Fed spooked, as it now thinks inflation will hit 3.0% by the end of the year. All told, the Fed meeting this week was something of a downer. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent Fed meeting and how no one should be fired up about it.

Legend has it the Roman Emperor Nero played his fiddle while Rome burned down around him. These days, domestic investors keep throwing money into the financial markets despite troubling headlines both here and abroad. But why is the American investing public apparently ignoring the world around it? Is it a change in risk tolerance? Easier access to retail investment products? Recent past performance? Does the money simply have to go somewhere? Or are we fiddling while the world burns down around us? On this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the recent curious rally in the US stock market and the potential causes for it.  

The Administration’s One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) has had caused a lot of wringing of hands and gnashing of teeth. How are we going to pay for all of these tax cuts? Where have the tax credits gone? What do you mean the states can’t regulate Artificial Intelligence? However, the hullabaloo misses the point: without a meaningful pickup in economic activity and reduction in Federal expenditures, there is no hope to get the budget deficits under control. Is there anything to be done? Interestingly enough, perhaps. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the OBBB and what it means for the US.  

This week, the Court of International Trade sort of put the kibosh on the Administration’s blanket, reciprocal tariffs. Also, Elon Musk made his exit from the apparently ineffectual DOGE, but not before taking a few passing shots. Also, while the House passed the President’s “big beautiful bill,” a lot of people are wondering how Washington can possibly pay for it. All told, from the outside looking in, it wasn’t a very good week for the President. So, where does he go from here? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the Administration’s trying week and where it must go from here.

This week, the stock markets rallied sharply on news the Administration was going to cut the tariff rate with China from 145% to 30%. However, should investors be enthused with constantly shifting economic policies? Particularly those like tariffs, which add costs to both the importer and the consumer? Further, with the economy already cooling slightly, is now the right time to play hard ball with our trading partners? Basically, what is the real cause for celebration?  In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam Clement and John Norris discuss the extreme reaction the markets had to the reduction in tariff rates with the Chinese.