How Might Iran Conflict End?

“I think what happened here is Europeans made a lot of commitments that they don’t have any intention of fulfilling—at least in the near term—and this is all about appeasing President Trump to keep him engaged with the NATO alliance.” At the recent summit in The Hague, Netherlands, NATO allies agreed to spend a target 5 percent of GDP on defense in a win for Donald Trump, who has repeatedly expressed the belief that European NATO allies are not spending enough. Was this a mistake—and can European nations afford to follow through?CSIS’s Max Bergmann, director of the CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program, joins the podcast to discuss what really happened at the NATO summit and how defense spending will impact European economies going forward.

CSIS Middle East Program Director Mona Yacoubian joins the podcast to discuss Monday’s strike by Iran on Al Udeid Air Base, the largest American military installation in the Middle East and the broader strategic implications of the conflict.

In this cross over episode, Mariana and Andrew are joined by Gopi Kallayil, Google’s Chief Business Strategist for AI, to explore what he calls “the most profound technology ever created by human beings.” Gopi shares how AI’s evolution is reshaping industries while amplifying human cognition and creativity. They discuss the tightrope between AI’s promise and risks, including the need for new “checks and balances” and emerging defenses against malicious AI. Gopi offers a nuanced take on AI’s impact on jobs, the skills future generations need, and why uniquely human traits will always matter. He also reflects on AI’s explosive rise in public awareness and the trillions in economic value it could unlock—offering an optimistic vision of a smarter, more prosperous world

CSIS’s Norm Roule, a former senior U.S. intelligence officer for the Middle East joins the podcast to discuss how conflict with Iran might end, what regime change could look like, the wider implications for the United States and the region and more.

CSIS’s Eliot A. Cohen, former dean of Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) and former councilor to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice joins the podcast to discuss Israel’s strategic objectives, potential regime change in Iran and what Israel’s military operation indicates for the future of warfare.

"This is easily once of the biggest ballistic missile and ballistic missile defense engagements in history, and it is truly momentous in terms of the overall context and the overall posture that Israel is taking." Israel and Iran have been at war since June 13, with each country firing hundreds of ballistic missiles in just a few days. Iran's defense enterprise is severely weakened following Israel's huge initial attack, but Israel lacks the capability to completely destroy Iran's hardened nuclear targets, at a time when the United Nations' nuclear watchdog warned that Iran could be as close as three days away from being able to assemble a nuclear weapon. CSIS's Tom Karako, director of the Missile Defense Project and senior fellow in the Defense and Security Department, joins the podcast to discuss the Israel-Iran conflict—who's winning, who's losing, whether the United States will get involved, and what we should be looking for next.

CSIS’ Seth Jones, Emily Harding and Ben Jensen join the podcast to discuss Israel’s strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, leadership and other targets.

"The spectrum is a scarce national resource...it is absolutely a defense priority." Much of the spectrum has been auctioned off for commercial use, sparking a fierce debate on Capitol Hill: How can we balance spectrum use between commercial and national defense needs? While fast telecommunications is crucial to our economy, leaving spectrum space for military radar is also key for U.S. homeland security and intelligence. Tom Karako, director of the CSIS Missile Defense Project, joins the podcast to discuss the intersection of spectrum policy and defense and whether spectrum can be effectively shared between commercial and defense needs.

“I do believe we’re in a strategic competition. I believe it’s fine to describe it that way analytically. But if it’s a competition that is purely strategic, what’s the goal? What’s the endpoint?” U.S. strategic competition with China is a cornerstone of our Indo-Pacific policy. However, this suggests that the U.S.-China relationship is always a zero-sum game when the reality is much more complicated. Dr. Tom Christensen, Columbia University professor, former State Department official, and new CSIS Pritzker Chair, joins the podcast to discuss U.S. strategic competition with China and how we should reframe our thinking about it.

“The stark reality is that the Russians really aren’t doing well on the battlefield, and their economy is also in pretty tough shape.” CSIS experts examined several indicators of Russia’s battlefield performance and found that it has been performing poorly since January 2024. Russia’s rate of advance on some fronts has been as slow as just 50 meters per day—the slowest rate since World War II. It has also only seized around 5,000 square kilometers, less than 1 percent of Ukrainian territory, over the same time period. Russia is also losing equipment at a significantly higher rate than Ukraine, and is nearing the 1 million casualty mark by summer 2025, including 250,000 fatalities—more than five times the number of fatalities in all Russian and Soviet wars between World War II and January 2022. Seth G. Jones, director of the CSIS Defense and Security Department and Harold Brown Chair, joins the podcast to discuss the state of the war in Ukraine and break down the data on Russia’s battlefield performance, which is included in an upcoming CSIS report.