S7 Ep2: Jason Stefanatos, Global Decarbonization Director, DNV

DNV’s Global Decarbonization Director analyses the main trends from the alternative-fuelled vessel orderbook in 2025, and sheds light on what to expect in 2026.Jason StefanatosJason Stefanatos is Global Decarbonization Director at DNV, a role which he has held since 2023. He joined the classification society 15 years ago, having previously worked in a technical role for the Hellenic Navy and as a research assistant at the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA). Jason holds a M. Sc. in Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering from NTUA.DNV’s Alternative Fuels Insights (AFI) platform gathers data on the development and uptake of alternative fuels and technology, covering both vessels and bunkering infrastructure. The platform has more than 18,000 users across the maritime industry.

Representatives from academia, the bunkering industry and environmental NGOs reflect on some of the positive developments that marked 2025 and share their main wish for 2026. Speakers:Tristan Smith is Professor of Energy and Transport at the UCL Energy Institute, where he leads a research group focused on the global shipping industry. He attends MEPC meetings as a delegate of IMarEST and is a contributing author to work published by the IMO, UNEP, and the UK Committee on Climate Change. He trained and worked as a naval architect before joining the UCL Energy Institute in 2010.  Alexander Prokopakis is Executive Director of IBIA – the International Bunker Industry Association, which represents companies across the marine energy value chain, including traditional and alternative marine fuels suppliers, traders, brokers, shipowners and port authorities. Previously, he worked in the bunkering industry, including as the CEO of PRO Holdings, the founder of the Probunkers project, and the lead of Mamidakis Group’s shipping, bunkering and aviation activities. He holds an MBA from St. John’s University. Sian Prior is Shipping Director at Seas At Risk and Lead Advisor for the Clean Arctic Alliance, which consists of 24 not-for-profit organisations and is focused on protecting the Arctic from the impacts of shipping. She has 30 years of experience in policy development, primarily in the non-government sector, but was also seconded to government positions. She has a B.Sc. in marine biology and oceanography from Bangor University and a PhD in marine ecotoxicology from Queen Mary, University of London. 

Irene Rosberg, Director of the Executive MBA in Shipping and Logistics at the Copenhagen Business School – which is widely known as The Blue MBA – explains why this globally recognised course came into being nearly 25 years ago, how it has evolved by keeping a finger on the pulse of a rapidly changing maritime sector, and what skills ‘fit-for-purpose’ leaders need today to grow and succeed, and, most importantly, to take their companies forward in a highly competitive and quickly evolving market. Over 450 ‘students’ have graduated since the course was launched, and its most recent cohort comprised 48 participants from 25 countries.  At its launch nearly a quarter of a century ago, leaders in shipping and related sectors were predominantly male and drawn from the countries that had the largest maritime economies, such as Western Europe, the US and Japan. As Irene explains, today’s Blue MBA requires a mindset that embraces diversity in terms of nationality and gender but the course is laser focused on providing a holistic view of shipping and its connected industries, and one of its strengths is that its students are drawn from a wide range of industry segments, including owners, operators, freight forwarders, ship managers, lawyers and finance professionals. The students learn from their tutors – and also from each other. The MBA also requires its students to have a job in maritime, and this enables them to apply the learning and insights they gain throughout the course to real life challenges and issues within their own companies – education informs practise and vice versa. An executive leader today cannot just be an expert in a niche area, they must be able to read the market, put together forecasts, understand risk management, create strategies, understand ESG obligations and environmental regulations – and also recognise the importance of soft skills, emotional intelligence, human capital and taking a collaborative approach to decision-making.

In this conversation, Paul Hexter lifts the veil on some of the practical challenges that Waterfront Shipping experienced since the first seven methanol dual-fuel vessels joined its fleet in 2016. He emphasises the central role of onboard teams and shipowners in solving technical teething issues around pilot fuel and lubricating oil, and in helping improve the technology from the first to the second and third generations of dual-fuel ships. Today, 19 of the company’s 30 deep-sea tankers are able to use methanol as fuel.Paul reports that the company has run its vessels on conventional methanol and some bio-methanol for over 245,000 hours to date, and that the fleet is currently operated on methanol ‘quite often’ in the current fuel price environment.  He also outlines his vision for the transition to green methanol, revealing that Waterfront Shipping is already using some bio-methanol as fuel to ensure compliance with FuelEU Maritime regulations. While Waterfront Shipping does not currently have more vessels on order, the company aims to stick to methanol dual-fuel technology for future newbuild orders. Asked about trends in the alternative-fuelled orderbook, which show that LNG has overtaken methanol in newbuild orders since the second half of 2024, Paul argues that ‘there is definitely room for multiple alternative fuels in the market,’ and highlights that methanol ‘makes a lot of sense’ as a fuel option, given that it doesn’t need cryogenic treatment and pressurisation and few modifications are needed to existing bunkering infrastructure and processes.He also comments on the IMO member states’ decision to postpone the Net-Zero Framework by a year. While many owners may defer newbuild or retrofit decisions amid the uncertainty, he points out that the industry as a whole remains supportive of a transition towards more sustainable fuels, and believes the delay might give companies a chance to further evaluate their options. 

The CEO of green analytics firm GENA Solutions examines the impact of the one-year delay of the IMO Net-Zero Framework on renewable fuel production projects, and on future ammonia and methanol volumes available for shipping.Podcast highlightsWhile it is still too early to measure the full effect of the IMO Net-Zero Framework postponement, Vitalii explains why he has no doubt that the pipeline of renewable fuel projects will be impacted, with likely cancellations and a slowdown in new projects being launched.  He anticipates that the uncertainty around the adoption of the first GHG pricing mechanism for shipping will make shipping companies more reluctant to sign binding long-term offtake agreements, without which many project promoters will struggle to secure financing and reach a final investment decision. Vitalii notes that renewable methanol projects are likely to be particularly affected, as more than 80% of total global demand for the molecule was expected to come from the shipping sector before the MEPC extraordinary session. He expects a mixed picture, where projects that have already secured offtakers for their future production are likely to continue to progress, while others may require more time to attach financing or attempt to reorient their production to aviation or the chemical industry. Even though FuelEU Maritime will maintain some maritime demand and the Net-Zero Framework could still be adopted next year, he warns that some projects will ‘inevitably’ be cancelled as a result of the delay. He remarks that the scenario is ‘quite opposite’ for renewable ammonia projects, as only about 10% of global consumption in 2030 was expected to come from the maritime sector. While GENA Solutions has revised its projections for the renewable methanol capacity available by 2030, down from 8-14 million tonnes to 6-13 million tonnes, its predictions for ammonia capacity have remained unchanged at 5-10 million tonnes. Vitalii also compares prospects for renewable methanol and ammonia with other alternative fuels, such as bio-LNG and biofuels. He predicts that the delay to the Net-Zero Framework will shrink the market for all renewable fuels, but will disproportionately affect projects that require higher risks and investments, as well as long-term commitments from shipping companies. Finally, he reflects on the countries and regions that will be most affected by a potential slowdown in offtake agreements and rise in project cancellations, and on whether governments should jump in to bridge the gap while the fate of the global IMO regulation remains uncertain. 

In this special episode, we analyse the implications of the IMO Net-Zero Framework postponement with representatives of the shipping industry, Pacific Island States and environmental NGOs who attended the extraordinary MEPC meeting. John Taukave, researcher at the Micronesian Center for Sustainable Transport, describes the outcome of the extraordinary MEPC session, where a majority of IMO member states voted to adjourn the meeting for a year, as ‘very heartbreaking’ and ‘a huge disappointment’ that will bring an additional year of climate impacts for Pacific Island communities. A technical support and advisor for the Vanuatu delegation during the meeting, he describes the pressure, including at the highest level of government, that many countries came under from the United States, which opposed what it described as a carbon tax and threatened possible retaliation against states that would support it.  John also looks ahead to the next steps, vowing that Pacific Island States will continue their outreach work and the development of proposals to build support for the adoption of a first global GHG pricing mechanism for international shipping.  Simon Bennett, Deputy Secretary General of the International Chamber of Shipping, also expresses his disappointment at the outcome of the MEPC session, which he says fails to provide shipowners with the certainty they need to make major investment decisions.  Asked to analyse why the IMO Net-Zero Framework went from having the support of a majority of countries in April to a majority voting to postpone it six months later, he emphasises the importance of avoiding ‘blame games’. Although ICS had supported the proposed regulation to ensure a level playing field for the global industry, Simon acknowledges that the agreement’s complexity had caused concern. He argues that ‘a way has to be found’ to account for the reservations expressed by many countries.  Simon also reflects on what the outcome of MEPC means for IMO’s role as shipping’s global regulator. He warns that, if member states opt for an ‘explicit’ acceptance procedure, as was suggested by the United States, it risks creating a precedent that would make future regulatory updates more difficult.   Blánaid Sheeran, Policy Officer for Climate Diplomacy at Opportunity Green, insists that the IMO Net-Zero Framework is not dead, but delayed. She highlights that there is now an opportunity for regional and national players, as well as corporations, to take leadership on maritime decarbonisation.  While acknowledging that current geopolitics may make it harder to reach global climate agreements in the short term, she points out that politics is ‘ever changing’, whilst ‘climate change is not politics; it is science, and it is facts.’  Asked about the development of implementation guidelines, which began immediately after MEPC, she reports that those discussions have so far been constructive, with member states showing a ‘collaborative spirit.’ She expresses her optimism that a consensus could be found in the next year, before delegates have to adjudicate again on the proposed GHG pricing mechanism for international shipping. 

As countries prepare for a decisive vote on the IMO Net-Zero Framework, the EU Commission expresses confidence that the first global pricing mechanism for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from international shipping will be adopted.  Podcast highlights In this conversation, the EU Commission’s Director of Waterborne Transport, Fotini Ioannidou, explains why she remains confident that the IMO Net-Zero Framework will be adopted by a ‘large majority’ of member states at an extraordinary session of the organisation’s Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) in mid-October.  While acknowledging that pressure from the United States, which includes possible retaliation against countries that will support the proposed global GHG pricing mechanism, is ‘serious’ and will weigh on countries’ positions, she does not believe it will be sufficient to destroy what she describes as ‘the commitment of the global community to deliver this first-of-its-kind global decarbonisation agreement.’ Asked what ‘plan B’ would look like if a majority of countries reject the Framework, she insists that there is ‘no credible alternative’ to the deal and there won’t be an opportunity to negotiate another one. She warns that, should MEPC fail to adopt the global regulation, the consequence would be regulatory fragmentation that would raise administrative burdens and costs for shipping.   Fotini also responds to calls, from the industry, for the EU to align its Emissions Trading System (ETS) and FuelEU Maritime regulations. She assures that the review process for both legislations will start ‘without delay’ as soon as the global framework is adopted to avoid a double regulatory burden for shipping companies.  Looking ahead, she also remarks that the next phase of negotiations on the development of guidelines is ‘likely to prove as difficult’ as were the talks that led to the agreement on the Net-Zero Framework itself. She singles out guidelines on rewards for zero or near-zero (ZNZ) fuels as ‘a priority among priorities’, which she says will be critical to provide clarity for investment in new fuels and energy sources. 

Cruise company Carnival Corporation unpacks the learning from its experience spearheading shore power in this new episode of the First Movers series. Podcast highlights Marcel explains how a combination of geography, available renewable electricity supplies and community support led Carnival Corporation to develop shore power in Juneau, Alaska, back in 2001.  Nearly 25 years later, he acknowledges that the use of shore power across the fleet of 90 ships remains relatively small, given that only 33 of the 800 ports where the vessels call (about 4%) currently offer shore power.  Nevertheless, he argues that the investment in making vessels capable of using shore power, which runs into the millions per ship, was worth it.  While he recognises that shore power does not make sense for all ports due to insufficient grid capacity or a lack of maritime traffic, he argues that the investment would make commercial sense for many more ports. He points to the importance of leadership from port authorities in driving initiatives like shore power, and shares his view on why deployment has been sluggish in the past two decades.  Marcel also responds to the wider debate about sustainability in the cruise sector. He points out that by improving energy efficiency, the company has lowered its greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity per passenger by 41% compared to 2008 levels and peaked its total emissions in 2011 despite growing its business by 37%.  However, he emphasises that the transition to alternative fuels depends on many factors outside cruise lines’ control, such as the availability of new fuels at an economically viable price. Describing hydrogen and ammonia as currently unrealistic for the sector, he explains why the company has opted for the LNG pathway, with 10 LNG-capable ships in its fleet and 8 more expected to be delivered by 2033.  Finally, he reflects on how Carnival Corporation’s experience with shore power development revealed the importance of a long-term vision and collaboration to achieve progress on decarbonisation.

In this episode, we examine the potential of ammonia to take off as a marine fuel, by considering trends on both the production and demand sides. Although numbers of ammonia-fuelled vessels are lower at present than LNG or methanol, Sofia sees clear signs in the global orderbooks that ammonia is gaining momentum as a marine fuel. She believes that the market is likely to first emerge among ammonia carriers, and in regions where infrastructure is already being developed for receiving ammonia as an energy vector, including Japan and parts of Europe. With future low-carbon ammonia production expected to reach nearly 50 million tonnes by 2030, she highlights that the bulk of that production isn’t earmarked for the maritime sector. Instead, she notes that the lion’s share of investments is for projects using ammonia for energy production and to decarbonise land-based industries. Sofia urges shipping companies to get involved where potential ammonia production, infrastructure and import ecosystems are already emerging, by joining clusters to co-invest and share risk with other industries.While she is confident that technology developments will meet the challenge of ensuring safe, leak-proof ammonia fuel and bunkering systems, she argues that the bunkering industry needs to step up to ensure operational readiness for ammonia bunkering. She also insists on the importance of developing robust protocols for verifying and certifying the lifecycle carbon footprint of different ammonia production sources.Finally, she explains why the adoption of the IMO Net-Zero Framework, which is scheduled to take place in October, will be essential for the development of a market for ammonia as a marine fuel. 

The Executive Director of the Norwegian Shipowners’ Association, Helene Tofte, unpacks some of the main reasons why the country seems to have a head start on the energy transition – from the impact of ownership structures on individual companies’ willingness to invest for the long term, to the presence of industry clusters to foster collaboration on new technologies.  Data from the Norwegian Shipowners’ Association shows that 90% of its members have invested in emissions reduction technologies, including battery and hybrid systems, wind propulsion, and shore power.  Moreover, about 15% of vessels owned by the Association’s members today are powered by alternative fuels, compared to 2% of the global fleet. The orderbook reveals a similar trend, with 72% of newbuilds on order from Norwegian owners set to run on alternative fuels, compared to the global average of 27%.  Helene explains how Norwegian shipowners make business cases work for those investments in new fuels or technologies, and whether those decisions are already paying off in commercial terms.  She also lifts the veil on the challenges faced by the country’s shipowners. While the level of state support for decarbonisation makes Norway the envy of other owners elsewhere in the world, she argues that there is a need to ensure that enough funding is allocated for energy efficiency measures, and not solely for cutting-edge net-zero projects.  Finally, she reflects on the importance of the IMO adopting its Net-Zero Framework in October, but also of the EU harmonising its regulation, to create a level playing field globally.  About the Norwegian Shipowners’ Association The Norwegian Shipowners’ Association (Norges Rederiforbund) is a trade and employment organisation representing Norwegian-controlled companies in the shipping and offshore industry. The Association has 128 members, which control a 450-strong offshore fleet, including wind- and subsea vessels, as well as 240 ships on short-sea routes and over 700 vessels in the deep-sea segment. In addition, 50 mobile offshore units are part of its member fleet.