The Decision™

On this special midweek edisode of The Rate Guy we unpack the first rate hike in 3 years and what it maens for you. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy JP starts with a heavily embellished story about our 5 week hiatus and then we discuss why the market has the odds of a hike this week at 90%! Then we finish with the top 10 (half serious) reasons they should hike this week.  For those that want to read more - here is the link to the Pensford Newsletter. Link the the LA Business Journal article. We'll see you all Wednesday after the Fed meeting!

On this episode of The Rate Guy: a Kalshi cautionary tale, what it is about the Fed meeting that has JP on edge, the 10T level experts consider catastrophic, and the top three things you should be watching—not just for this meeting, but moving forward. For the deep dive into monetarism that JP references, check out last week's newsletter: Monetarism for Dummies

We discuss this week's CPI report because we think it could be a big driver of interest rates not just for this month but really how the Market receives the Fed's reaction function to the inflation related to oil.

On this episode of The Rate Guy you get a story of JP wrestling with a bat (yes a real live bat), his thoughts on the market's frustration with Warsh and what the real unemployment rate is and why. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we talk inflation, GDP, Jobs and what's really killing caps right now. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we recap today's FOMC meeting and cover any happenings, surprise statements and of course Warsh's tie color.

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we talk about last week's jobs number, Warsh's first ever Fed meeting, what position are traders pouring into at a historic level and how a resolution in Iran affect the 10T. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we take a trip down memory lane. Revisiting similar economic times in history to build a framework for what the Fed might do this year. We take a look at GDP, Money Supply, Inflation, Oil...all of the key touchpoints and which of those we should be payint the most attention to. 

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss what the Market is laser focused on right now and what needs to happen to bring relief to the 10T.