A Layman Thinks About AI

In his latest memo, Howard Marks, Co-Chair of Oaktree and Chair of Brookfield's Investment Solutions Group, revisits the topic of artificial intelligence, describing it as both deeply consequential and highly unpredictable. He addresses 11 questions that surround investing in AI, including who will profit and what it means for the credit markets. Howard points out that while these questions can’t be answered definitively, the presence of uncertainty doesn’t mean investors can or should ignore AI: it’s simply too important for that.

In his latest memo, Howard Marks discusses recent attempts to rein in long-dated government bond yields.  He affirms that the only sustainable solution is responding to the underlying factors pushing interest rates up, even if politically uncomfortable.  Any other method simply represents an attempt to override the laws of economics – and that never works.

In his latest memo, Howard Marks discusses the evolution of the sub-investment grade credit market from its beginnings in the 1970s to its present state. He focuses on the rise of direct lending following the Global Financial Crisis, identifying the reasons for its fast growth but also the issues created by rapid capital deployment. Looking ahead, he describes the entwined fates of direct lending and private equity, with the performance of private equity portfolio companies being a key determiner of the future success of direct loans.You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/whats-going-on-in-private-credit).This episode uses an AI reader.

In this special episode of The Insight: Conversations, Howard Marks shares his reflections on themes from Oaktree’s recent client conference, including the evolution of the credit markets, the nature of mispricings, and the importance of leadership.

In his latest memo – occasioned by massive changes he cites in just the 11 weeks since the last one – Howard Marks revisits the subject of AI, providing his observations on its essence and how it differs from previous technological innovations. He highlights AI’s immense power, speed, and autonomy; its limitations; and its potential implications for investing. He expresses conviction that AI is far from a fad, but also that investors must view its transformational potential against an assessment of the appropriateness of the prices of AI assets.You can read the memo here (https://oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/ai-hurtles-ahead).

In his latest memo, Howard Marks addresses the much-asked question, “Is there a bubble in AI?” He identifies the uncertainty associated with AI investments and the conspicuous parallels to previous bubbles, while also acknowledging why those comparisons could be inappropriate. Given AI’s vast potential but numerous unknowns, no one can say for certain whether investors’ current enthusiasm is merited or irrational. Thus, Howard emphasizes the importance of prudence and selectivity in navigating this transformative yet unpredictable technological revolution.You can read the memo here (https://oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/is-it-a-bubble).

In his latest memo, Howard Marks examines the recent string of well-publicized credit problems. He considers how they serve as a reminder that the yield premium offered by sub-investment grade credit isn’t a freebie, but rather compensation for bearing credit risk. While good times lead to complacency and elevated risk tolerance, bad times expose the results of that carelessness. Howard emphasizes that it’s essential to always balance the desire to put money to work with the need for prudence.You can read the memo here (https://oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/cockroaches-in-the-coal-mine).

In his latest memo, Howard Marks offers observations based on his meeting with the board, consultant, and senior staff of a state pension fund. Howard explores the key topics covered during the session, including determining an appropriate risk posture, selecting an investment approach, and assessing performance. While these decisions are challenging, the board and its consultant applied the only reasonable method: asking the right questions and pursuing rational conclusions.You can read the memo here (https://oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/a-look-under-the-hood).

To celebrate the 35th anniversary of his memos, Howard Marks recently held a fireside chat for Oaktree employees. Listen to an excerpt from the conversation to hear Howard discuss why he started writing and why he’s kept at it, and learn more about the enduring investment truths encapsulated by his memos.

In his latest memo, Howard Marks sets forth the essence of value and price, as well as the critical relationship between the two. He posits that value exerts a ‘‘magnetic’’ influence on price, meaning the relationship of price to value should be expected to strongly influence investment performance in the long run, with high valuations presaging low subsequent returns, and vice versa. In the context of today’s elevated U.S. equity valuations and widespread investor optimism, he advises us to consider going to an ‘‘Investment Readiness Condition’’ in which investors shift their portfolios somewhat in the direction of increased defense.You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/the-calculus-of-value).