Nerd Alert: Shrinkflation and Consumer Demand

Welcome to Nerd Alert, a series of special episodes bridging the gap between marketing academia and practitioners. We’re breaking down highly involved, complex research into plain language and takeaways any marketer can use.In this episode, Elena and Rob dig into why five analysts can hand you five different ROI numbers for the same campaign. They explain why averaging those numbers hides the truth, and how to match your measurement method to the size of the decision in front of you.Topics covered:   [01:40] "Making Effectiveness Work" [02:20] Three ways to measure ad effectiveness [02:40] Why triangulation is a trap [04:10] Test and learn can more than double returns [05:15] Long-term ROI was 2.2 times the 12-week read [05:45] The case against last click attribution  To learn more, visit marketingarchitects.com/podcast or subscribe to our newsletter at marketingarchitects.com/newsletter.  Resources: Duckworth, S., Charles, N., & Stoddard, D. (2024). Making effectiveness work. Institute of Practitioners in Advertising. https://ipa.co.uk/knowledge/effectiveness/ipa-effectiveness-conference-2024/making-effectiveness-work  Get more research-backed marketing strategies by subscribing to The Marketing Architects on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts.

73% of people think they should have an estate plan. But only 26% actually do. So how do you get consumers to act on something they'd rather avoid?Recorded live at Brandweek, CEO Angela Voss sits down with Trust & Will CMO Dale Sperling. They break down five ways the digital estate planning brand builds trust at scale, from TV's signaling power to warm, human creative and sonic branding. Plus, hear how sticking with one campaign helped drive an 89% lift in unaided awareness since 2023.Topics covered: [01:00] Why trust drives purchase decisions [04:00] How TV signals legitimacy [05:30] Building creative around relatable life moments [07:00] Inside the Make It Count campaign [10:30] Running linear and CTV as one TV strategy [11:30] Why consistency pays off in brand building [13:30] What's next for Trust & Will  To learn more, visit marketingarchitects.com/podcast or subscribe to our newsletter at marketingarchitects.com/newsletter.  Resources: 2024 Kantar Article: https://www.kantar.com/inspiration/advertising-media/trust-in-media-the-new-publishing-battleground2024 System1 Report: https://system1group.com/blog/the-extraordinary-cost-of-dull Get more research-backed marketing strategies by subscribing to The Marketing Architects on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts 

Buy a brand, and it shows up on your balance sheet. Build one, and it doesn't. Wharton professor Dave Reibstein thinks that's backwards.This week, Elena, Angela, and Rob are joined by Dave Reibstein, the William S. Woodside Professor of Marketing at the Wharton School and co-author of Marketing Metrics. Dave explains how to put an actual number on brand value, whether you take it in price premium, volume, or some mix of both. He shares 10 years of research on how country branding shapes trade, tourism, and investment, plus why "Made in Italy" still sells shoes. Plus, hear the team pitch which country they'd take over as CMO.Topics covered: [03:00] Research on customer capital and talent risk [06:00] Why marketing metrics need standard definitions [07:30] What brand value looks like as a number [09:30] Balancing promotions against long-term brand building [12:00] The management behavior that moves results most [13:30] Why every country should manage its brand [19:30] Dave's case for brand value on the balance sheet  To learn more, visit marketingarchitects.com/podcast or subscribe to our newsletter at marketingarchitects.com/newsletter.  Resources: 2021 Journal of Finance Study: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3187850Dave Reibstein’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-reibstein-34269/ Get more research-backed marketing strategies by subscribing to The Marketing Architects on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. 

Welcome to Nerd Alert, a series of special episodes bridging the gap between marketing academia and practitioners. We’re breaking down highly involved, complex research into plain language and takeaways any marketer can use.In this episode, Elena and Rob dig into shrinkflation, the quiet price increase that shrinks the product instead of raising the number on the shelf. A decade of retail scanner data shows shoppers shrug off a smaller box, cheer a bigger one, and keep buying either way.Topics covered:   [01:40] "Shrinkflation and Consumer Demand" [02:20] Shrink the box or raise the price? [03:20] Inside four million products and 50,000 stores [04:10] Detergent, cereal, and other quiet categories [05:30] Shoppers are twice as sensitive to price as size [06:40] What marketers should do about it  To learn more, visit marketingarchitects.com/podcast or subscribe to our newsletter at marketingarchitects.com/newsletter.  Resources: Janssen, A., & Kasinger, J. (2026). Shrinkflation and consumer demand. Marketing Science, 45(1), 142–158. https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.2024.0948  Get more research-backed marketing strategies by subscribing to The Marketing Architects on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts.

Marketers assume the moment consumers spot a sales pitch, their guard goes up and the message dies. New research says that's only half the story. Sometimes recognizing persuasion makes people trust a brand more, not less.This week, Elena, Angela, and Rob are joined by Kellogg School of Management professor Kent Grayson, who has spent decades studying trust, deception and authenticity. He explains the three building blocks every brand draws on to earn trust, plus how to diagnose which one you're actually missing. The team also digs into whether TV itself works as a trust signal, and why AI could erode the founder story the same way paid deals eroded influencers.Topics covered: [03:30] What the persuasion knowledge model really says [07:30] Why people distrust "advertising" but trust the ads they watch [10:30] Trust's three buckets: competence, honesty and benevolence [15:30] Character-based trust vs assurance-based trust [19:00] Can a media channel be a trust signal? [21:30] How AI threatens the founder story [26:00] Trustworthy creative starts with a trustworthy strategy  To learn more, visit marketingarchitects.com/podcast or subscribe to our newsletter at marketingarchitects.com/newsletter.  Resources: 2017 KelloggInsight Research: https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/how-to-make-ads-that-even-savvy-customers-trustKent Grayson’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kent-grayson-3a0894126/ Get more research-backed marketing strategies by subscribing to The Marketing Architects on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts.

Welcome to Nerd Alert, a series of special episodes bridging the gap between marketing academia and practitioners. We’re breaking down highly involved, complex research into plain language and takeaways any marketer can use. In this episode, Elena and Rob dig into research showing that managers consistently misjudge how their own customers feel. They explore why loyalty is the biggest blind spot and what that misread costs a company. Topics covered:   [01:20] "Do Managers Know What Their Customers Think and Why?" [02:10] Comparing 70,000 customer surveys to manager guesses [03:35] Managers were too optimistic across the board [04:30] Why loyalty was the worst miss [05:00] The blind spot on customer complaints [05:55] A $25 million gap in perception  To learn more, visit marketingarchitects.com/podcast or subscribe to our newsletter at marketingarchitects.com/newsletter.  Resources: Hult, G. T. M., Morgeson, F. V., III, Morgan, N. A., Mithas, S., & Fornell, C. (2017). Do managers know what their customers think and why? Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 45(1), 37–54. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11747-016-0487-4  Get more research-backed marketing strategies by subscribing to The Marketing Architects on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts.

83% of ad executives now use AI in the creative process, up from 60% two years ago. But only 45% of young consumers feel positive about AI-made ads. Advertisers guess that number is 82%.This week, Elena and Angela are joined by Chief Creative Officer Steve Babcock to dig into that gap. Cost efficiency is now the top reason marketers reach for AI. It ranked fifth two years ago. Steve explains where AI slop really comes from, why TV punishes cut corners far more than social does, and what still has to stay human. Plus, why cutting production costs means improving the smallest line item on the page. Topics covered: [01:40] Why cost efficiency became AI's top-cited benefit [04:00] Where AI slop comes from and the uncanny valley [11:50] Should brands disclose when an ad was made with AI? [15:00] How AI shows up in briefs, idea generation and pretesting [22:15] Why TV is the least forgiving channel for AI creative [27:30] The case for raising the creative ceiling, not lowering the price floor [30:30] Steve's contrarian take on creating with AI  To learn more, visit marketingarchitects.com/podcast or subscribe to our newsletter at marketingarchitects.com/newsletter.  Resources: 2026 IAB and Sonata Insights Study: https://www.iab.com/insights/the-ai-gap-widens/ Get more research-backed marketing strategies by subscribing to The Marketing Architects on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. 

Welcome to Nerd Alert, a series of special episodes bridging the gap between marketing academia and practitioners. We’re breaking down highly involved, complex research into plain language and takeaways any marketer can use.In this episode, Elena and Rob look at why burying a mistake isn't always the right call. They learn how an honest flaw in a product's story can make it feel rare, one of a kind and worth paying more for. Plus, the two limits every marketer should know before trying it.Topics covered:   [02:05] "Made by Mistake: When Mistakes Increase Product Preference" [03:15] The chocolate that people picked over cash [04:05] Why a flaw made a drawing sell for more [04:20] Intentionality bias and the appeal of the improbable [04:45] Mistakes only pay off when you're already skilled [06:00] Fun products versus function, and the $6 eBay premium  To learn more, visit marketingarchitects.com/podcast or subscribe to our newsletter at marketingarchitects.com/newsletter.  Resources: Reich, T., Kupor, D. M., & Smith, R. K. (2018). Made by mistake: When mistakes increase product preference. Journal of Consumer Research, 44(5), 1085–1103. https://doi.org/10.1093/jcr/ucx089  Get more research-backed marketing strategies by subscribing to The Marketing Architects on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. 

The IPA analyzed nearly 1,000 campaigns and found a 60/40 split between brand and performance marketing drives the strongest long-term growth. GOVX tested that research and broke free of a plateau.This week, Elena, Angela, and Rob talk with Aaron Pelander, Chief Brand Officer at GOVX, the largest online retailer serving the US military and first responder community. Aaron shares how GOVX moved from a performance-only mindset to a balanced brand strategy. He breaks down the leading indicators his team tracks, from share of search to direct traffic. Marketers on a plateau will get a real plan for building brand strength. Topics covered: [04:00] GOVX marketing before the plateau hit [07:00] What clicked after reading The Long and the Short of It [09:00] Splitting budget into member and brand marketing [14:00] Leading indicators like share of search and direct traffic [21:00] Earning executive buy-in for TV and sponsorships [33:00] Aaron's advice for brands stuck on a plateau [34:00] Why precise attribution is overrated To learn more, visit marketingarchitects.com/podcast or subscribe to our newsletter at marketingarchitects.com/newsletter.  Resources: 2013 IPA Report: https://ipa.co.uk/knowledge/publications-reports/the-long-and-the-short-of-it-balancing-short-and-long-term-marketing-strategies/GOVX Website: https://www.govx.com/Aaron Pelander’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aaronpelander/Get more research-backed marketing strategies by subscribing to The Marketing Architects on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. 

Welcome to Nerd Alert, a series of special episodes bridging the gap between marketing academia and practitioners. We’re breaking down highly involved, complex research into plain language and takeaways any marketer can use.In this episode, Elena and Rob explore why family-owned branding builds consumer trust. They dig into new research testing whether a family name on the label actually changes how people feel about a brand, and which categories benefit most.Topics covered:   [02:00] "I Vouch for It with My Name" [00:35] Why a family name feels like an emotional shortcut [03:00] Testing the same cheese ad with two different backstories [04:00] How sincerity turns into brand credibility [05:35] Which categories benefit most from family ownership [07:00] Takeaways for marketers, plus real brand examples  To learn more, visit marketingarchitects.com/podcast or subscribe to our newsletter at marketingarchitects.com/newsletter.  Resources: Schramm, H., & Zinser, A. (2025). "I vouch for it with my name." The influence of brand perception of family businesses on their credibility and the purchase intention of consumers. Frontiers in Communication, 10, Article 1607511. https://doi.org/10.3389/fcomm.2025.1607511  Get more research-backed marketing strategies by subscribing to The Marketing Architects on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts.