Why Trump’s Mega-Bill Could Blow Up on MAGA

It came out of the blue, with all the NATO allies of Ukraine having thought they'd done a great job of keeping Trump on side at last week's NATO summit. Suddenly, they were learning that Trump had paused weapons already agreed to be sent to Ukraine. Not only that, but Trump was suddenly taking a direct call with Vladimir Putin to discuss all the possibilities of how they could work together. This in contrast with how he is ratcheting up the pressure on China, and increasingly demanding of the same allies that they distance themselves from Xi Jinping. Just another day in Trump world. Let's discuss.

The controversial Trump Budget Mega-Bill squeaked its way through the Senate, thanks to the casting vote of JD Vance. And now it has come back to the House somewhat changed from how it was when it left. Specifically, with more debt loaded into it. And more severe cuts to Medicaid. Democrats are convinced this bill is going to come back to haunt the Republicans, and by all accounts Republicans fear that will be the case as well. How far might that go? And could it be the act of self-sabotage that destroys MAGA's project before it can get fully embedded? Let's discuss.

We know that big changes are happening in the world. Some of them are well known as cycles in history, and affect the current geopolitical order. But there are also four aspects where what we face is unique to our time - things the human race has never dealt with before. And the most important of those four is the one the effects of which are coming whether we like it or not - and sooner than the UN is projecting. Global population decline, and then collapse. Let's discuss.

Musk has largely gone back to focusing on his own businesses - but he couldn't help making a last public stab at President Trump's big budget bill which will eviscerate support for EVs and clean technology, while boosting it instead for fossil fuels. He must be reflecting how badly served his original missions for Tesla and SpaceX have been by his biggest single mistake surely in his life - getting involved in MAGA politics and helping bring into being an administration that has really been the end of what he wanted to achieve in the world. Let's discuss.

Lots of people have gotten excited about an upset win for an old-fashioned socialist candidate in the New York Mayoral race. Notwithstanding the implications or otherwise of the politics of it, the real lesson that Democrats and everyone else involved in politics should be paying attention to is the fact that someone finally showed up the dismal level of what passes for political campaigning right now. Let's discuss.

Suddenly, Trump had a moment and called off the ongoing trade talks with Canada. The reason - or, at least, the excuse - was the incoming Digital Services Tax about to be implemented (and running as a forerunner to the same device in the EU). Now the trade war is back on. Trump will be announcing the new tariff rate for Canada in the coming week, and it's unlikely to be a minor affair - because it looks very much like whatever it will be will simply be calculated to force Ottawa to back down on their tax, even as it's being put into practice. How bad does this get, and what really prompted it? Let's discuss.

We heard all the promises during the confirmation hearing for Robert F Kennedy Jr. He was not anti-vax. He was not promoting conspiracy theories. He was not going to be messing around with immunisations schedules for children. Well, that didn't last long. Right now, fundamental changes are being made that remove actual vaccine expertise and replace it with pseudoscience and quackery. It's early days, but the first steps could not be less clear about the direction of travel. Let's discuss.

Trump's use of military force in Iran has made his enemies and rivals sit up and take notice - especially those in China who have been evaluating the likelihood of the US intervening should they finally decide to make a move on Taiwan. How much has really changed because of what just happened over Iran's nuclear programme? And what are the huge mistakes President Trump is making that is giving Xi Jinping the opportunity to step more quickly into the role of rising, pre-eminent world superpower? Let's discuss.

The NATO Summit came to a relatively successful conclusion, given the rather limited ambition it had set for itself. But throughout the event, Trump insisted on a version of reality of the recent US military strike against Iran's nuclear sites, that is not supported by evidence, and demanded that everyone else should actively agree. And this in spite of the fact that a preliminary assessment by his own defence department contradicted him. However the facts of the case eventually unfold, this habit of Trump's of turning his own wishful thinking into a loyalty test for all those around him - that is going to result in some crashingly bad consequences. Let's discuss.

All of Trump's team were on message - the US bombing of Iranian nuclear sites was a one-off strike, not a declaration of war, and certainly not directed towards regime change in Iran. Then Trump floated exactly that, and it seemed that he was piling pressure onto Iran to capitulate. Did this mean he didn't think he'd completely destroyed Iran's nuclear capabilities? Did it mean that he was trying to prevent the US from being dragged further into a war? And, with the latest news that Iran has made a first retaliation against US military in the Middle East, does that mean his gamble is failing - or that it paid off? Let's discuss.