Should You Worry About a Recession? What Investors Need to Know in 2025 (EP.197)

Want to see what you may be overlooking in your finances? Discover your biggest opportunities in just 15 questions with my Financial Assessment.  -----  Markets are unpredictable in the short term, but history tells us that the long-term trend is clear.    Sam Ro, author of the TKer newsletter, joins me at the New York Stock Exchange to discuss the key principles that investors should keep in mind, regardless of daily market noise.    We explore the fundamental drivers of stock market returns, the importance of earnings, and the real risks that investors should focus on.   Listen now and learn: ► Why the long-term is undefeated in investing ► The reality of market volatility and short-term drawdowns ► How earnings drive stock prices over time ► Why the biggest risks are often the ones no one is talking about   Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.   (03:39) Understanding Market Noise and Long-Term Investing (09:36) Embracing Market Volatility as the Cost of Long-Term Returns (13:09) Why Investors Rarely Get ‘Average’ Returns (16:15) The Key Driver of Stock Prices: Earnings (21:24) Index Turnover: How the Market Evolves Over Time (24:53) Valuations Matter, But Timing Is Tough (27:25) U.S. vs. International Stocks: A Shifting Landscape (30:42) The Stock Market and the Economy Are Not the Same (33:12) The Real Risks Are the Ones No One Sees Coming Disclosures: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.   The commentary in this “post” (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client.   References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others. Please see disclosures here: https://peterlazaroff.com/disclosure-info

Markets are always moving—should you? Peter can help you assess your investments, tax strategies, and long-term plan. Book a 1/1 call today. -----  With the S&P 500 reaching correction territory and economic data signaling a slowdown, it’s fair to ask: should investors be worried about a recession in 2025?   Listen now and learn: ► What’s really driving recent market volatility ► The difference between an economic slowdown and a recession ► Why staying invested is still your best strategy   Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.   Disclosures: This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.   The commentary in this “post” (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Plancorp LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Plancorp LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Plancorp LLC or performance returns of any Plancorp LLC client.   References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.   Please see disclosures here: https://peterlazaroff.com/disclosure-info 

Markets are always moving—should you? Peter can help you assess your investments, tax strategies, and long-term plan. Book a 1/1 call with me today. -----  Risk is one of the most misunderstood concepts in finance, yet mastering it is crucial for long-term success. Economist, Bloomberg Opinion columnist, and author Allison Schrager joins me to break down what investors consistently get wrong about risk, how to think about the U.S. national debt, and why retirement planning needs a major shift.    Listen now and learn: ► The most common mistakes people make when assessing financial risk ► How to think about the national debt and what it means for investors ► The key to turning retirement savings into sustainable income ► Why global economic shifts could lead to more volatility for investors   (02:04) Rethinking Risk: Lessons from Hollywood, Poker, and Brothels (06:55) The U.S. National Debt: A Growing Concern or Manageable Risk? (12:48) Retirement, Pensions, and the Annuity Debate (26:33) Global Trade, Tariffs, and the Shift in Economic Thinking (30:24) The Rising Cost of Risk in a More Fragmented World (33:08) How to Think About Risk in Your Own Finances   Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.

Big financial decisions ahead? Whether it’s retirement, taxes, or investments, my 15-question Financial Assessment will help you assess where you stand and what to do next. -----  Gold prices are surging, hitting near-record highs. But is gold a smart investment, or just another speculative bet? This episode breaks down the forces driving gold's rally and whether it deserves a place in your portfolio.   Listen now and learn: ► Why central banks are driving demand for gold—and what it means for investors ► The truth about gold as a diversification tool (and why correlation isn’t everything) ► Whether gold actually protects against inflation—or if it's just a myth ► The risks of betting on gold as a hedge against currency collapse Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.

Want to see what you may be overlooking in your finances? Discover your biggest opportunities in just 15 questions with my Financial Assessment.  -----  David Booth, founder of Dimensional Fund Advisors, joins me to discuss how academic research transformed investing by challenging Wall Street’s stock-picking culture. We explore why markets function as an information-processing machine, how the efficient market hypothesis reshaped portfolio management, and why most investors are better off embracing evidence-based strategies.   Listen now and learn: ► How the rise of evidence-based investing disrupted traditional stock-picking. ► The role of human ingenuity in driving long-term investment returns. ► How to separate signal from noise and focus on what really matters for your portfolio.   Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.   (02:00) From Selling Shoes to the Science of Investing (04:08) The University of Chicago & The Birth of Evidence-Based Investing (06:30) Wall Street’s Traditional Approach vs. The Academic Revolution (14:00) The Hidden Order in Markets—And Why Human Ingenuity Drives Returns (16:30) The First Index Funds & The Rise of Dimensional (24:50) Active vs. Passive? Why That’s the Wrong Debate (28:00) Separating Signal from Noise—How Investors Get Distracted  (29:50) Why More Investors Haven’t Adopted the Science of Investing (33:00) David’s Advice to His Younger Self 📺 Watch the documentary Tune Out the Noisewww.youtube.com/watch?v=T98825bzcKw

Most financial mistakes happen because people don’t see the full picture. My Net Worth Worksheet helps you track everything in one place—so you stay informed. Get it now. -----  Checking your portfolio too often might be the biggest mistake you don’t realize you’re making. Research shows that the more frequently investors monitor their portfolios, the more likely they are to see losses—leading to emotional decisions that can hurt long-term returns. In this episode, I explore the behavioral bias known as myopic loss aversion, explain why watching the market too closely leads to worse outcomes, and share practical strategies to help you break the habit and invest smarter.   Listen now and learn: ► Why frequent portfolio monitoring leads to lower returns ► The psychology behind myopic loss aversion and how it affects decision-making ► Eye-opening stats on how often the market is actually down over different time frames ► Simple, actionable steps to stop checking your portfolio too often Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.

Get an inside look at what’s shaping my thinking. Bi-weekly, I share the top 5 investing and financial planning articles I’m reading—straight to your inbox. Sign up for my newsletter. -----  What’s ahead for markets in 2025? In this episode, I’m joined by Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to break down key economic and market trends shaping the year ahead.  Listen now and learn: ► How economic forecasts are built—and how investors should use them ► The outlook for GDP growth, inflation, and interest rates in 2025 ► The impact of policy changes, including tax cuts, tariffs, and fiscal stimulus ► Why global diversification matters more than ever ► The role of AI in the economy and what it means for investors Dr. Kelly’s insights cut through the noise and focus on what really matters for long-term investors. Don’t miss this deep dive into the forces driving markets in 2025! Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions. (02:15) How Economic Forecasts Are Built (05:30) The U.S. Economic Outlook for 2025 (06:45) Policy Changes That Could Shape 2025 (12:30) Why Interest Rates Are Rising (16:30) The National Debt: Should Investors Worry? (23:15) Market Concentration and the “Magnificent Seven” Stocks (26:00) Why U.S. Investors Should Diversify Globally (31:00) The Potential and Risks of AI (32:33) Final Thoughts and Where to Follow Dr. David Kelly   Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.

You don’t have time to sift through endless financial content. That’s why I do it for you. Get my top 5 must-read articles every week in a quick, easy-to-digest email. Sign up for my newsletter. -----  Why do so many investors underperform the market? Legendary investor and author Charley Ellis explains why investing has become a “loser’s game” and what smart investors do instead.   Listen now and learn: ► Why active investing used to work—but no longer does ► How professional traders dominate the market, making it nearly impossible to outperform ► The biggest behavioral mistakes that cost investors money ► What individual investors can learn from institutional strategies (and what they should avoid)   Charley Ellis has spent decades advising institutional investors and writing some of the most influential books on investing, including Winning the Loser’s Game and Rethinking Investing. His insights will change the way you think about investing and help you build wealth more effectively.   🔹 Subscribe now for more expert insights on long-term investing strategies!   (02:30) Why Most Investors Lose the Investing Game (04:45) The Evolution of Investing: Why Active Management No Longer Works (12:30) Why Most Prices Are (Almost) Always Right–And Why That Matters (17:50)The Smartest Investors Play a Different Game (22:15) Why Index Investing Is the Best Bet for Long-Term Wealth (27:30) Why Yale’s Investing Model Won’t Work For You (31:45) The Biggest Mistakes Investors Make (38:15) The Best Investment Strategy? The One You Stick With Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.

Want to see what you may be overlooking in your finances? Discover your biggest opportunities in just 15 questions with my Financial Assessment.  -----  The U.S. stock market has been on an incredible run for over a decade, leaving many investors wondering: Why bother diversifying when the S&P 500 keeps winning?   But history tells us that no market outperforms forever. In this episode, Peter Lazaroff explores the hidden risks of relying too heavily on U.S. stocks and why global diversification still plays a crucial role in long-term investing success.   Listen now and learn: ► The historical cycles of U.S. stock dominance—and what happened when the tides turned ► Why valuation gaps between U.S. and international markets create new opportunities ► The psychological challenge of sticking to diversification when it feels like U.S. stocks can do no wrong ► How a globally diversified portfolio helps manage risk and minimize regret   🎧 Tune in now!   Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions.

The retirement you’ve worked so hard for should be more than just financially secure—it should be truly fulfilling.  In this episode, Benjamin Brandt, financial planner and host of the award-winning Retirement Starts Today podcast, reveals how to break free from limiting mindsets and create a retirement plan that prioritizes your passions, values, and connections. Whether you’re on the cusp of retirement or already enjoying it, this conversation will challenge how you think about retirement and offer a fresh perspective on what truly matters. Listen now and learn: How to shift from a scarcity mindset to one that maximizes joy, experiences, and memories. Why common financial tools may unintentionally limit your potential—and how to reframe them for greater fulfillment. Actionable tips for building meaningful connections and creating a legacy through shared experiences. How to redefine your identity and purpose as you transition into retirement. Visit www.TheLongTermInvestor.com for show notes, free resources, and a place to submit questions. (00:00) Introduction (01:45)  Abundance vs. Scarcity in Retirement Planning  (04:12) The Time Machine Thought Experiment (10:35) Rethinking Monte Carlo Analysis and Retirement Success Rates (16:40) Creating Memories That Last Beyond Retirement (23:21) Preparing Emotionally for Retirement (24:55) Connect with Ben Brandt