28: 3. Supply vs. Demand: Economic Shocks, Entitlements, and the Invisible Population Nicholas Eberstadt Book: Men Without Work (Post-Pandemic Edition) Eberstadt explores the competing explanations for the ghost army, contrasting his supply-side argument (men

The Fight for the Nanina and Charles Barnard's Return to the Sea Eric J. Dolan Left for Dead: Shipwreck, Treachery, and Survival at the Edge of the World Barnard and his party survived 534 days in wretched conditions, primarily thanks to their sizable dog, Scent, who hunted wild hogs. When rescued by British whale ships and taken to Lima, Peru, Barnard regretfully gave Scent to a British whaling captain, believing the dog deserved a better life than an arduous two-year voyage home. Barnard returned home bankrupt, but Murray and Son successfully appealed the prize court's initial decision. The court ultimately sided with the Americans, awarding them the value of the brig—a ruling Danda resented for the rest of his life. Though initially vowing to quit the sea, Barnard resumed sealing and later became a port warden and light ship captain, publishing his account in 1829.

The Collapse of the Humanitarian Deal and Barnard's Abandonment Eric J. Dolan Left for Dead: Shipwreck, Treachery, and Survival at the Edge of the World Charles Barnard offered the British castaways a humanitarian deal: he would transport them to South America in exchange for salvage rights to the Isabella wreck. Although the British learned the War of 1812 had commenced, they accepted the terms. However, one of the British captains, Brooks, secured a rescue mission from Buenos Aires commanded by Lieutenant William Peter Danda aboard the HMS Nancy. Danda was driven by the prospect of personal financial gain offered by the prize system and disregarded the Americans' humanitarian assistance to British citizens. Danda seized the Nanina as a prize of war, imprisoned most of the American crew, and deliberately marooned Barnard and a hunting party who were ashore gathering food for the castaways.

The Falklands and the Wreck Eric J. Dolan Left for Dead: Shipwreck, Treachery, and Survival at the Edge of the World The American sealers sought valuable fur seals and elephant seal blubber in the Falkland Islands, a harsh, virtually uninhabited region characterized by constant high winds averaging 18 mph and cold temperatures averaging 49°F in summer. The treeless landscape features tusk grass, which grows up to nine feet tall and yields peat useful for making fires. While the Nanina hunted seals, the Australian transport ship Isabella wrecked on Eagle Island due to Captain George Hickton's ineptitude and drinking. The 54 survivors, including Marines and pardoned convicts, made it ashore, though many were inebriated and convinced they would perish in this desolate location. 1849 FALKLANDS

The High-Risk Sealing Expedition of the Nanina Eric J. Dolan Left for Dead: Shipwreck, Treachery, and Survival at the Edge of the World Sealing was a lucrative industry, particularly for the China market, valued for its high-quality fur seal pelts and elephant seal blubber. Charles Barnard, a veteran sealer, proposed a high-risk expedition on the brig Nanina to the Falkland Islands, which Murray and Son backed despite the impending War of 1812. Many merchant vessels remained in port, but Barnard and Murray viewed this as an opportunity to meet pent-up demand. Barnard's crew included four captains, notably diarist Barzillai Pease, and his 63-year-old, infirm father, Valentine Barnard, who was meant to captain the Nanina on its return voyage to New York laden with cargo. They departed from New York just as an embargo took effect. 1833 FALKLANDS

4. Climate Change and Risk Management Strategies. This final section addresses climate change and risk management strategies. Koalas are highly vulnerable to fires because they are dependent on eucalyptus trees. The arrival of El Niño is associated with hot and dry conditions, increasing fire danger. A major concern is that climate change is rapidly increasing the incidence, frequency, and severity of fires. Even in non-high-risk seasons, fires can occur due to factors like arson. The expansion of civilization into bushland areas—particularly in urban interface areas (bushy outskirts of cities)—presents a unique risk. These areas often have high populations with low fire preparedness and experience. Australia, being a very fire-prone country, tends to allow large park fires to take their course. The country also utilizes preventative burnings (a practice learned from Indigenous Australians) to reduce the fuel load. However, this practice needs to be carried out delicately and on a small scale, paying attention to local ecology, rather than through broad-scale burnings. 1915 QUEENSLAND

3. Personal Preparedness, Home Safety Design, and Decision-Making During Fire Events. This section focuses on personal preparedness, home safety design, and decision-making during fire events. The highly settled coastal areas of Australia face significant fire risk. The author emphasizes that living safely in fire-prone areas requires constant effort and planning. Houses need to be designed to mitigate risk; for example, homes built on concrete slabs or those with sealed-off underfloor spaces are safer than houses on stumps, as embers can easily get under the house and start a fire. The biggest risk to houses is mostly ember attack. During a serious fire, embers can fall "like red rain." To protect against ground fires, a cleared management zone—ideally 100 meters in rural areas—is recommended around the house. On high fire-risk days, known as Fire Ban Days (which are increasing in frequency), the official policy is to leave early. Staying and defending the home is a major decision that requires thorough preparation. Leaving late is a very dangerous strategy. Wind is a major factor, with hot and dry northerly winds posing a significant danger. Furthermore, large fires can generate their own weather and worsen the wind. Wind changes are particularly risky, as they can suddenly turn a long, thin trail of fire into a massive fire front. In the worst-case scenario—being caught in a car—the advice is to stay in the car, turn off the air conditioner, close windows tightly, keep the engine running, and use a woolen blanket to shield against heat. The primary killer in fires is often radiant heat, not the flames themselves. The woolen blanket acts as a thermal shield. It is also crucial to carry water for drinking to reduce dehydration. 1907 ADELAIDE

2. The Science of Fire and Response Organization in Australia. This section addresses the science of what burns and the organization of fire response in Australia. The Australian landscape contains fire-adapted plants. Eucalyptus trees are highly flammable due to their oil content, burning quickly. Mountain Ash is the largest species of eucalyptus in the world. While many eucalypts regenerate after fire, Mountain Ash actually dies after a fierce blaze but releases a huge load of seed, requiring sun to regenerate. Naturally, Mountain Ash fires are notoriously fierce and occur only every two or three hundred years. Fires are caused by lightning, power lines, and arson. Although arson is frequent, the resulting fires are often less dangerous than those caused by lightning or electrical faults, as some arsonists light fires for attention. Regarding fuel, while some believe certain weeds like pittosporum might be fireproof, ultimately, everything burns under the right conditions. A well-watered pittosporum hedge, however, could protect a home from ember attack. H. G. Wells is quoted in the book, describing fire as a "gorilla" that is opportunistic with sparks flying. In terms of response, fire brigades originated with insurance companies in the late 19th century, focusing on protecting buildings in townships. Rural communities, left unprotected, established their own parallel volunteer bushfire brigades (the first being in Berrigan in 1901). Following the enormous 1939 fires in Victoria, the government began funding and organizing state bodies to support these brigades. 1885 SOUTH AUSTRALIA

1. A Future in Flames: Worldwide Wildfire Phenomenon and Historical Context. Danielle Clode's book, A Future in Flames, addresses wildfires (or bushfires in Australia) as a worldwide phenomenon challenging civilization in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The discussion emphasizes that bushfires are not solely a product of civilization but were present historically. Early European explorers, such as Captain Cook in 1770, frequently reported seeing fires along the Australian coast, often interpreting them as indicators of people ashore. Once explorers went ashore, some observed really intense fires that were clearly out of control. The sources highlight the long history of fire use by humans, focusing on Indigenous Australians. Prior to European settlement, Indigenous people used fire in various ways, including hunting, clearing movement passages, signaling, defense, and crucially, land management. They used fire selectively to stimulate new growth and promote grass for grazing prey. This land management system, perfected over more than 60,000 years, is known as "fire stick farming" and is integral to the Australian ecology. In contrast, early European settlers failed to apply these lessons well, often using fire indiscriminately merely to clear forests. While the land clearance supported the economy by regenerating grass for sheep, the uncontrolled fires became a serious problem relatively early in the colony's history. By 1851, settlers realized the severity of the issue, exemplified by events like Black Thursday (February 5, 1851), which featured extreme heat (47°C or 120+°F). 1864 QUEENSLAND

4. Post-Pandemic Lessons and Policy Interventions Nicholas Eberstadt Book: Men Without Work (Post-Pandemic Edition) Eberstadt addresses the post-pandemic landscape, noting the problem has worsened and shows warning signs of spreading to prime-age women and older cohorts. The China shock (China entering the WTO) previously disrupted US manufacturing. Pandemic-era government transfers were unique in that US disposable income rose, generating over $2.5 trillion in excess savings that facilitated a "delayed return to work." Policy solutions include adopting a "work first" principle for social welfare programs and improving vocational skills training to reduce disincentives. Eberstadt stresses the need to gather statistics on the vast ex-felon population (one in seven adult men has a felony conviction) to enable evidence-based policies for societal reentry. Gaming the disability system often involves claims that are difficult to falsify, such as psychological or musculoskeletal pain. 1939 NYSE

3. Supply vs. Demand: Economic Shocks, Entitlements, and the Invisible Population Nicholas Eberstadt Book: Men Without Work (Post-Pandemic Edition) Eberstadt explores the competing explanations for the ghost army, contrasting his supply-side argument (men holding back labor/unpreparedness) with demand-side views from critics Henry Olsen and Jared Bernstein. Olsen highlights the role of economic shocks and structural changes, like the 1970s stagflation and deindustrialization (the Rust Belt). The role of entitlements is significant, as over half of NILF men receive at least one benefit, often disability payments like SSDI. Regional differences in labor force participation (e.g., high inactivity in West Virginia adjacent to low inactivity in Maryland) mitigate a purely national demand-side case. The source stresses the lack of data on the estimated 25 million ex-convicts, who are an "invisible population" largely untracked by labor statistics. 1929