EP223: The Data Was Wrong | MRIP Recalibration

What if one of the most important numbers in East Coast fisheries management was wrong, and the people in charge didn’t want to hear it?This week on The Guide Post, ASGA President Tony Friedrich sits down with Dr. Jerald Ault of the University of Miami, to explain how a flawed reading of a 1966 tagging study may have overstated menhaden natural mortality, and why the fix could reshape coastwide allowable catch at significant scale. From tarpon migrations to a closed-door peer review, this is the menhaden episode you need to listen to before ASMFC’s next meeting in November.

Maryland's new young-of-year index was just announced at "5.5", the best since 2018. Last year's index recorded a 4.0. Both of these year classes are worth saving. How do we know? We have been here before.The 1982 Year Class (an 8.45) came after years of poor spawning. Managers protected it with a Maryland moratorium and strict coastwide rules until the females had spawned. Those fish went on to produce the huge 1989 year class that rebuilt the stock. This year's 5.5 is about two-thirds of that. In both cases, a decent year class shows up after years of weak spawning. We often struggle to learn from history, but the lesson here is clear: what managers did with the 1982 fish brought striped bass back from rock bottom.Amendment 3 required states to protect at least 95% of the 1982-class females until they'd spawned at least once, and Maryland shut down harvest entirely from 1985 to 1989. Those fish produced more than 90% of the eggs in 1989, generating a 25.2 index that rebuilt the stock. Our immediate reaction to today's news is "protect this 2026 year class the way we protected 1982," not that things are improving or that "5.5 is a banner year". The 2025 and 2026 fish are our next chance to right decades of wrongs. ASMFC should protect these fish the way we protected them in 1982. We are teetering on a cliff and cannot afford to waste a decent spawn.Good spawns don't rebuild a fishery on their own. How managers behave after those spawns paves the path forward.

Striped bass are arriving in Maine, depleted after a massive spawning migration along the Atlantic coast. What they eat next could shape everything from their recovery to the future of the fishery. Abby Remick breaks down the first coastwide striped bass diet study in the Gulf of Maine, revealing what these fish are actually feeding on, why it matters for management, and what anglers and scientists have been missing.Mario and Jake sit down with Abby, a master's student in Dr. Michelle Staudinger's Lab at the University of Maine, to unpack a highly collaborative project built from Maine's recreational fishing community.

10/01/2026 from the ASMFC Atlantic Menhaden Addendum II public hearing.

What the menhaden!?

In the latest episode of The Guide Post, Tony, Mario and Jake examine how a flawed menhaden stock assessment led to detrimental overharvesting of a critical Atlantic resource. The trio makes the case for significantly reducing catch in the coming years to protect the long term viability of the fishery.

There are several videos doing the rounds on social media lately about stocking redfish into Louisiana waters. Redfish are one of Louisiana’s most important game fish. They support a massive recreational fishery, fundamental to the lives of local sportsmen and the State economy. The 2022 Louisiana red drum stock assessment painted a clear picture that the fishery is declining, which matched on-the-water observations from countless guides and anglers in recent years. While the LDWF science supported a substantial reduction in harvest, the political process once again muddied the waters for conservation progress. State-based “conservation” groups pleaded that “one less fish per person was simply too much conservation”. They blamed the menhaden boats for red drum’s problems, often parlayed into arguments about the lack of healthy habitat to support more redfish. Now two years later, these same non profit voices are actively collaborating with the menhaden industry and some of the Gulf’s greatest polluters and violators to supplement the stock with tank-grown, genetically-insufficient hatchery fish. You might be asking: why grow fish if things are so good we don’t need a harvest reduction? The answer is simple: the almighty dollar. Let’s take a peak behind the curtain…

MRIP recalibration is approaching its peak. Now, data revisions show the recreational fishery has been far more overestimated than managers admitted, and the ripple effects reach far beyond one chart. They will reshape the entire future of striped bass management.

Capt. Cody Rubner is joined by Kyle and Grizz, two friendly faces and good souls leading the charge for Soul Fly Co. Their mission is simple: bring people together in an event made by the people, for the people. We'll see you at Soul Fly Boston later this month!

A rapid reaction podcast after a North Carolina hearing for Atlantic bonito management.