165: When Uptrends Break

🎯 Get 50% off AlphaCrunching.com with code SPX50 — your edge for data-driven SPX option strategies.In this episode, Eric O’Rourke breaks down what happens when an uptrend breaks — and how traders can stay grounded when volatility spikes. He covers the recent tariff shock, key SPX levels to watch (6650–6800), and why the market’s recovery above the volume trigger could signal renewed bullish momentum.Eric also discusses risk management in trend-following strategies, explains how short-term setbacks fit within high-win-rate systems, and shares insights from the latest Alpha Crunching forecast showing a cautious but stabilizing market outlook.Want to join our next Live Zoom call?Check out our Events calendar. It's free to join.https://www.stockmarketoptionstrading.net/events

In this episode of the Stock Market Options Trading Podcast, Eric dives into the concept of expectancy—a key metric that blends win rate, average win size, and average loss size into one number that helps traders understand whether a strategy has a real edge over the long run.We break down why a high win rate alone doesn’t guarantee profits (think 98% win rate ads…), and how expectancy provides better context by showing how much you can expect to make or lose per trade on average. Eric also shares updates inside Alpha Crunching: the Trade Ideas tab now includes expectancy alongside win rate, giving subscribers deeper insight when sorting potential setups for the week.You’ll also hear about future enhancements—like adding average win and loss values—so traders can better gauge risk-reward and decide which setups fit their personal style.👉 Try Alpha Crunching for yourself and get 50% off your first month here: https://alphacrunching.com

This episode centers on navigating markets at all-time highs after last week’s FOMC head-fake. We discuss how to balance staying long with reducing risk, trimming SPX put-credit spreads, and the trade-offs of skipping entries during volatile weeks.Brian joins to walk through his weekend watchlist and three core income strategies: in-the-money covered calls, poor man’s covered calls (diagonals), and broken-wing butterflies—including how he manages risk, targets returns, and selects trades. We also cover SPY covered calls vs. selling puts, an update on Intel’s surprise breakout, and practical ways to use mechanical strategies like Alpha Crunching’s Thursday PCS setup.Symbols mentioned: SPX, SPY, ETSY, BABA, RKLB, INTC.

Join us for another live session of the Stock Market Options Trading Podcast with Eric and co-host Brian as we dive into trading SPY options. We start by comparing SPY vs SPX — looking at the key differences in contract size, settlement style, tax treatment, and liquidity.Brian also shares details on his Delta Neutral “double diagonal” strategy with SPY, walking through trade setups, adjustments, and lessons learned from managing the position. We cover how rolling strikes works, how IV impacts results, and why this approach may fit best in lower-volatility environments.Eric wraps up by discussing how he’s using covered calls on SPY as a way to generate income and manage positions during the current market uptrend.👉 If you want to join future sessions live, visit https://stockmarketoptionstrading.net and check the Events tab for schedules and Zoom links. Replays are always posted here on the YouTube channel.

🎁 50% OFF: Option Omega (code SMOT) • Alpha Crunching (code SPX50) — grab both and build + automate your SPX playbook.This episode is a fun, nerdy deep-dive with Troy and Matt from Option Omega. We cover how to build realistic backtests for options (especially 0DTE) and when it makes sense to automate entries/exits so you’re not chained to the screen. We also walk through a few trade structures—including the much-misunderstood Reverse Iron Condor (RIC)—and talk about portfolio-level thinking: position sizing, diversification across edges, and why “one-lotting” more often than not can save your sanity.What we cover:Why end-of-day data lies for options backtests and how 1-minute, intraday pricing changes the conclusions (stops, profit targets, and whether you even got filled).The rise of 0DTE and why intraday realism matters way more than it did for 45–90 DTE trades.The “Punisher”: stress-testing backtests with slippage, fills, and tougher assumptions so results hold up in live trading.Liquidity matters: why OO focuses on top tickers (SPX, SPY, QQQ, etc.), and the pros/cons of instruments like XSP.RICs (Reverse Iron Condors) as long-gamma plays: when long premium + the right signal can still have positive expectancy, and sizing so a few losses don’t nuke the account.Credit-spread philosophy: structure ≠ edge. Edge comes from when you put it on (signals), then you pick the simplest structure that monetizes that edge.Automation better than willpower: broker-resting stops, time windows, and signal-gated entries so your plan runs even when you’re walking the dog.Sizing & psychology: allocations as a strategy; why many traders should downshift to one-lots more often; diversifying edges (theta harvest + long-gamma + price-action) on the same ticker.My ASD signal (Alpha Crunching): using Average Strength Deviation as a weekly, day-of-week filter; combining ASD with simple MAs/EMAs for “aggressive” ATM put-credit spreads; converting those rules into hands-off automations.Broker support today: Schwab, Tastytrade, Tradier (IB not currently supported for U.S. retail cloud API).Key takeaways:Backtests need intraday realism or they’re just stories.Structure is just the container; edge = timing + conditions.If your edge is “market stability”, credit spreads monetize it better than naked long calls.Automation lets you run more strategies with smaller per-trade risk and fewer emotional mistakes.Test harshly (slippage, fills, stops) so live results rhyme with backtests.Resources & links:🔧 https://OptionOmega.com (backtesting + automation) — Use code SMOT for 50% off.📈 https://AlphaCrunching.com (signals, forecasts, ASD/WTR/TTR, weekly trade ideas) Use code SPX50 for 50% off first year.

This Week in Options Trading with Eric & Brian 🎙️📈In this episode, Eric and Brian recap a volatile week in the markets, share updates on recent SPX trades, and walk through trade setups they’re watching. Topics include:Last week’s market moves, Powell’s comments, and how they affected options positionsAn Intel trade idea: building a position with stock, covered calls, and long-term outlookA deep dive into a broken wing butterfly setup on Carvana and why it flips the risk/reward compared to standard spreadsKey economic events on this week’s calendar (GDP, core PCE, jobs data) and how they may impact price actionTools for traders: Forex Factory, Unusual Whales options flow, and Alpha Crunching’s new ASD forecast researchWhether you’re into SPX spreads, directional trades, or income strategies, this session covers practical setups and the thought process behind them.👉 Catch the live session every week by RSVPing at https://stockmarketoptionstrading.net/events.👉 Join the conversation in the Alpha Crunching Discord to access research, options flow tools, and weekly trade ideas.

Welcome to the first segment on the show of This Week in Options Trading with Eric O’Rourke and Brian Terry! We’ll be going live every Monday at 12pm ET to share option strategies, market setups, and answer community questions in real time.👉 To RSVP for future live sessions: https://stockmarketoptionstrading.net/eventsIn this kickoff episode, Eric walks through the Monday 7DTE Put Credit Spread strategy powered by Alpha Crunching’s Weekly Triumph Rate (WTR). He compares backtest results of holding to expiration versus taking early profits and shows why risk/reward balance is key for long-term success. We also dig into trade management, allocation, and automation using Option Omega.Brian shares one of his go-to strategies—the Poor Man’s Covered Call (Diagonal Call Spread)—breaking down a real trade example in $ANET, including strike selection, rolling, and risk management.We also touch on the week’s economic calendar, including the FOMC minutes and Jackson Hole Symposium, and how traders might factor these events into their setups.👉 To RSVP for future live sessions: https://stockmarketoptionstrading.net/events👉 Watch replays on YouTube: Stock Market Options Trading channel⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Options involve risk and are not suitable for every investor.

In this week's episode, we cover the major economic reports and catalysts driving the markets and what caused the current break in the uptrend.🎥 Mentioned in this episode:Check out the latest YouTube video where Eric explains how the ASD indicator from Alpha Crunching helps spot slowing momentum and potential SPX trend reversals — before they happen.📺 Watch here: https://youtu.be/H48aAu4WxBA💡 Get 50% off your first year at AlphaCrunching.com

🎧 Episode Description – SPX 0DTE Risk-Free Profit ForestIn this episode, Eric breaks down a risk-free SPX trade using the “Profit Forest” approach—where the focus is on locking in gains and building multiple profit zones on the risk graph, rather than chasing max reward with max risk.📺 Watch the full video version of this trade on YouTube here: https://youtu.be/ONQCRfjrMZ0📹 Also check out these related videos on risk-free 0DTE setups:🌲SPX 0DTE Iron Butterfly Risk Free Walkthroughhttps://youtu.be/AUpTVV-a4sQ🌲SPX 0DTE Options Strategy: Risk Free Trade Walkthroughhttps://youtu.be/nSLOBTKgvmw🌳SPX 0DTE Risk Free Profit Forest Trade: Green Everywhere!https://youtu.be/mojAC_DXZ6M📈 Get your edge with AlphaCrunching.comAccess daily SPX forecasts and backtested trade ideas to help guide your SPX decisions.👉 Use code SPX50 for 50% off your first month/year: https://www.alphacrunching.com💬 Join the free SMOT communityChat with other SPX traders, explore trade alerts, and access educational content at:🔗 https://www.stockmarketoptionstrading.net

SPX Market Outlook, FOMC Setup & This Week’s Trade Ideas"In this episode of the Stock Market Options Trading Podcast, Eric breaks down the current SPX market setup heading into a big week of economic events, including Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. After last Friday’s selloff, the market rallied hard on Monday—highlighting the continued volatility.Eric recaps last week’s inflation data (CPI, PPI), stronger-than-expected consumer sentiment, and why these may give the Fed room to ease up. He also walks through this week’s AlphaCrunching forecast, revealing a potential shift toward late-week weakness and how that’s impacting his current trades.Plus, you'll hear the latest backtested trade ideas, including put credit spreads and hedge setups—all driven by AlphaCrunching’s proprietary Triumph Rate metrics and trend data.📈 Join Alpha Crunching for weekly SPX forecasts, trade ideas, and strategy tools: AlphaCrunching.com🎙️ Chat with Eric and other traders in the free SMOT Community at StockMarketOptionsTrading.net