245. BESS: Who is making money? - Sep26

Where Are BESS Making Money? Gerard and Laurent had the pleasure of welcoming Ed Porter Director Europe at Modo Energy for an insightful discussion on battery profitability and the evolving economics of Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS).  Modo Energy is a fast-growing data analytics and market intelligence platform helping energy professionals benchmark asset performance, forecast revenues and evaluate investments in renewable energy and grid-scale battery storage.  Ed outlines three stages in the development of a battery market:Stage 1 – Pre-saturation: Batteries can achieve attractive payback periods, sometimes as short as three years, primarily through ancillary services.Stage 2 – Wholesale market competition: As ancillary service revenues become more competitive, batteries increasingly rely on wholesale market opportunities, as seen in Australia, Texas and Great Britain.Stage 3 – Sophisticated grid services: Once wholesale markets become saturated, batteries move towards more advanced and specialised grid services (voltage, inertia...).  The technology is evolving rapidly, as is the deployment of new battery capacity. This makes future revenues increasingly difficult to predict, particularly because of the cannibalisation effect: as more batteries enter a market, they compete for the same revenue opportunities and can progressively reduce market spreads.  From Australia to PJM, ERCOT and CAISO, and across Great Britain, Spain and Germany, we explore the fundamentals driving battery profitability in different markets.   With CAPEX around $500,000/MW, a decent return might be in the region of $70,000–80,000/MW. Yet the picture varies dramatically by market. Poland can deliver around $300,000/MW, while ERCOT and Australia's NEM are currently below $30,000/MW.  These differences highlight why investors need to look beyond headline revenues and consider market structure, competition, saturation, technology and future revenue cannibalisation.  We also discuss Long Duration Energy Storage (LDES) and explore the deeper market and technological levers that can make batteries a profitable long-term investment.   A compelling conversation on where BESS is making money today—and, perhaps more importantly, where the opportunities may lie tomorrow. With the energy industry's largest proprietary dataset, world-class experts and decision-grade models, all powered by Synoptic AI, Wood Mackenzie delivers Intelligence Connected across the energy and natural resources landscape.

There is no shortage of discussion about the role of AI in the energy transition. Yet while many talk about the future of intelligent grids, only a handful of industry leaders are delivering solutions at scale.  One of them is Alberto Méndez Rebollo—an executive, investor, and entrepreneur dedicated to accelerating the energy transition. Throughout his career, Alberto has held senior leadership positions at Siemens Gamesa, Vattenfall, XCharge, and other organizations, overseeing multi-million-euro initiatives across renewable energy, power grids, and electric mobility.  Today, as Co-Founder and CEO of Plexigrid, he is leading the development of next-generation technology designed to prepare electricity networks for a rapidly changing energy landscape. Plexigrid, a deep-tech company headquartered in Sweden and Spain, develops intelligent software that helps utilities optimize and digitize electricity distribution networks. At the core of its platform is a real-time digital twin of the distribution grid, enabling operators to monitor capacity, detect anomalies, and make better operational decisions.  The company's AI-powered technology automatically coordinates energy consumption and manages flexible assets such as EV chargers, shifting demand away from peak periods. This allows utilities to alleviate congestion, increase grid resilience, and unlock additional network capacity—without the need for costly and time-consuming infrastructure upgrades.  The market response has been remarkable. Operating on a software-as-a-service (SaaS) model, Plexigrid has expanded its commercial pipeline from €8 million to more than €150 million in just four years, consistently winning competitive tenders against some of the industry's most established players.   Its growing client base includes leading utilities and energy innovators, with notable partnerships such as EDP and Piclo focused on advancing real-time grid orchestration. The company has also raised approximately €15 million across multiple funding rounds, providing a strong foundation for continued growth and innovation.  Beyond the technology, however, this is a story about transformation at warp speed. It is about how critical infrastructure can evolve—not only technically, but culturally—to embrace new technologies and operating models. As electricity networks become increasingly decentralized, digital, and dynamic, organizations like Plexigrid are demonstrating how AI can move from a promising concept to a practical tool that helps utilities adapt, modernize, and thrive in the energy transition.  “Today’s show is supported by the BMW Foundation Herbert Quandt. The BMW Foundation unites leaders across sectors to develop solutions that foster an innovative economy and a future-proof society. A key focus is "Energy Transition & Climate Change," where the Foundation drives "International collaboration to accelerate the energy transition." With rising energy demands from AI and data centres, new partnerships, effective collaboration, and the exchange of science-based solutions and strategies are essential.”

Recorded at the SolarPower Summit in Brussels this conversation between Laurent Segalen and Jonathan Gifford examines why batteries have become one of the fastest growing and most strategically important technologies shaping the global energy transition. Jonathan Gifford is the co-founder of Climate Copy and a wonderful storyteller.  Laurent unpacks how rapid battery innovation is transforming electric mobility, renewable energy markets, charging infrastructure, and the future operation of electricity grids.  It has been only nine years since Hornsdale (Tesla – South Australia) 100MW-130MWh made of EV batteries cracked the code. Six months later in China the Jiangsu Zhenjiang first 100MW LFP battery was installed. In Europe and the US, the first large LFP batteries were installed in 2021-2022. Now, LFP has a 95% market share in BESS around the world. For EVs, it is 55% LFP – 45% NMC (80% in China).  By the end of 2026, we will reach 500GW globally and great forecasters like Jan Rosenow expect 1,000GW by 2030. We see longer duration and the advent of sodium batteries.  Laurent outlines why electrification is entering a new phase of acceleration. He highlights how falling battery costs, rapid improvements in electric vehicle technology, and the widening economic gap between electricity and fossil fuels are reshaping expectations across the transport sector. This shift is not limited to passenger cars; it increasingly extends to commercial fleets and heavy-duty trucking, where electric trucks are becoming more competitive thanks to lower operating costs, reduced maintenance needs, and improving charging infrastructure.  He also discusses the growing importance of stationary battery storage in enabling high-power EV charging, increasing grid flexibility, and supporting higher penetration of renewable energy.  Finally, he explained why Hydrogen will never work in long haul transportation. Simply too expensive.    

Michael Barnard welcomes Cornelis Plet, CTO of Grid Systems Integration at GE Vernova, about the technologies reshaping modern power systems and the practical realities of building an electrified future.  High-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission, once a specialist solution for narrow use cases, is now becoming a standard building block of the global grid. Increasingly standardised designs are enabling large-scale transfer of renewable power over long distances, yet the industry is still grappling with how to align control systems and operational standards across different vendors and regions.  A central theme of the conversation is the rise of grid-forming inverters. As traditional synchronous generation retires and is replaced by wind, solar, and batteries, the grid is shifting from mechanical inertia to power electronics. While technical progress is rapid and new grid codes are emerging, true interoperability between systems remains a work in progress, with different implementations still complicating integration at scale.  The discussion also touches on geopolitics and market dynamics. Investment patterns are evolving, regulatory environments are uneven across regions, and supply chains are adjusting after a period of rapid expansion. Yet across all of this, one constraint stands out more than any other: people. The shortage of experienced power engineers, particularly in system design, protection, and control, is becoming the defining bottleneck of the transition.  Ultimately, the episode is not only about HVDC or inverters, but about the broader system that surrounds them—standards, institutions, skills, and the accumulated expertise required to keep a highly complex, rapidly changing grid stable. It is a reminder that the energy transition is as much a human and organisational challenge as it is a technological one.  

In March 2026, Laurent was invited by Jan Rosenow at Oriel College, Oxford, for a public debate on the energy transition. Held in the College's historic library, the discussion brought together contrasting perspectives on one of today's defining challenges. Jan Rosenow, Professor of Energy and Climate Policy, is renowned for his work on energy efficiency, electrification, and the transition to net-zero energy systems.Laurent opened by introducing the "Aristotelian Triangle" of the energy debate—Ethos, Logos, and Pathos—arguing that values, evidence, and emotion all shape how people interpret energy issues. Responding to Jan's distinction between energy addition and energy transition, Laurent made two key points.First, history shows that energy forecasts have repeatedly underestimated transformative innovations, from shale gas and LEDs to solar, electric vehicles, batteries, and AI-driven data centres. His conclusion: humility is essential when predicting structural change.Second, Laurent presented his "Diocletian Tetrarchy of Energy," pairing Vaclav Smil with Clayton Christensen to represent continuity versus disruption, alongside Daniel Yergin and Michael Liebreich to illustrate the roles of markets, geopolitics, and industrial transformation. He described himself as roughly 70/30 in favour of technological disruption while acknowledging the inertia of existing energy systems.The discussion also examined the cost of ideology, arguing that opposition to technologies such as offshore wind or nuclear power can shape investment, electricity prices, and energy affordability. It concluded by exploring industrial policy, energy security, and how nations should balance resilience, competitiveness, and comparative advantage in a changing geopolitical landscape.Although the formal debate lasted just over an hour, the conversation continued long afterwards. This episode captures part of those fascinating exchanges.  

During Intersolar (The Smart E), Gerard sat down with Dr Chuan Lu, CEO Astronergy and Director of Chint Group to discuss, from the inside the Chinese Solar revolution. 2026 was Dr Lu and Chint 15th participation to that massive European Exhibit that epitomise the growth of renewables. 18 halls the size of a football fields and more than 100,000 visitors.  CHINT is a vertically integrated Chinese energy conglomerate whose solar business is profitable, mid-growth, and margin-focused rather than driven by hyper-scale manufacturing. Its portfolio includes Astronergy (modules), CPS (inverters), CHINT Solar (EPC/IPP), and CHINT ANNENG (residential PV), generating approximately $650–700 million in operating profit and implying a valuation of $12–16 billion. Annual growth of 15–20% trails peers but reflects CHINT's focus on profitability, diversification, and disciplined capital allocation. The result is a stable, globally active, Tier 1-certified solar group that operates more like an integrated industrial compounder than a scale-at-all-costs PV manufacturer.  The modern Chinese solar industry began to take shape around 2006 as a predominantly export-oriented manufacturing sector, driven by demand from Europe and other international markets. As a privately held enterprise, CHINT has operated within a unique ecosystem where entrepreneurial initiative has been complemented by government policy support. A pivotal moment came in 2012 with the introduction of China's Feed-in Tariff (FIT) programme, which stimulated domestic demand and transformed China into the world's largest solar market, creating significant opportunities for companies such as CHINT to expand beyond export manufacturing.  CHINT's development has also been shaped by China's regional economic and cultural differences. Originating in the entrepreneurial, resource-poor southeast of the country, the company embodies a private-sector culture that contrasts sharply with the coal-dependent, state-controlled industrial base of northeast China.  Looking ahead, management recognises the challenges posed by overbuilding and excess manufacturing capacity in the utility-scale solar market. In response, CHINT has diversified aggressively into distributed generation through its residential rooftop solar business, CHINT ANNENG, which has installed more than 60 GW of capacity across over 1.2 million rooftops throughout China, positioning the company to benefit from a broader and more resilient mix of solar market opportunities.  A great thanks to Jonathan Gifford of Climate Copy for organising the recording.  

Laurent and Gerard set out to explore one of the biggest ideas emerging alongside the excitement around the SpaceX IPO: datacenters in space. To refuel those satellites emerged the concept of an orbital grid where beams are directed to provide electricity to space crafts, like a gas station in space.  It may sound like science fiction, but it is rapidly becoming a medium-term engineering challenge being tackled by some of the brightest minds of our generation.  One of those pioneers is Andrew Rush, CEO of Star Catcher, a company building what will become the world's first orbital energy grid—a network of satellites capable of wirelessly transmitting power to other spacecraft on demand hundreds of kilometres away.   Andrew is the man for the mission: he previously served on the Technology, Innovation and Engineering Committee of the NASA Advisory Council, helping advise NASA's Administrator, the Office of the Chief Technologist, and its Mission Directorates. Before founding Star Catcher, he successfully built and exited two leading space companies: Redwire and Made-In-Space.  His vision is ambitious: create an "energy-as-a-service" platform for space.  Rather than forcing every satellite to carry increasingly large solar arrays and batteries, spacecraft could draw power from a shared orbital network whenever they need it. If successful, this infrastructure could become as fundamental to the space economy as the electrical grid is on Earth.  Investors are taking notice. Star Catcher has raised approximately $88 million to date, including a recent $65 million Series A led by B Capital, Shield Capital, and Cerberus Ventures. Andrew believes SpaceX's reusable rockets have dramatically reduced the cost of reaching orbit, unleashing an explosion in satellite deployment. The next major bottleneck, however, is no longer launch—it's power. Star Catcher aims to build the energy infrastructure that enables the next generation of space-based industries.  In this conversation, we explore what's real, what's possible, and what's still myth when it comes to energy in space. We also discuss why technologies that once seemed decades away may arrive much sooner than most people expect.   The future of the space economy isn't just about getting to orbit—it's about powering everything that comes next.  Live long and prosper.

In June 2026, Gerard and Laurent recorded a live episode at DLA Piper’s Charging Up Capital 2026 Global Energy and Digital Investments Forum with Rowan Parkhouse, Managing Director at Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP).  CIP has emerged as one of the world's leading specialist energy transition investors, ranking among the top infrastructure fund managers globally by both assets under management and fundraising. So, what is CIP’s Playbook?  We explore how infrastructure investing has evolved over the past five years—what has become easier, what has become harder, and where the biggest opportunities now lie. The conversation covers data centres, batteries, grids, transmission, renewables, EVs, independent power producers, and CIP's relationship with Ørsted.  We also discuss some of the most important questions shaping energy infrastructure today: the impact of AI-driven power demand, whether grid constraints have become a bigger bottleneck than generation, the changing political priorities around energy security and competitiveness, the rationale behind CIP's acquisition of Ørsted's European onshore business, and the future of energy storage.  A fascinating deep dive into how one of the world's most successful energy transition investors is helping build the infrastructure of the future.  We would like to thank Natasha Luther-Jones and Nicolas Stofenmacher for a flawless organisation and the impressive array of talents around the table.

Gerard and Laurent first welcomed David Scaysbrook to the podcast in Episode 66, back in January 2022, for a conversation about the future of 24/7 power. Four years later, it felt like the right moment to reconnect and take stock of how profoundly the market has evolved.  Since then, Quinbrook Infrastructure Partners has continued to establish itself as one of the leading specialist investors in the energy transition, orchestrating and deploying billions of dollars of capital through project finance structures and platform companies.   As of today, the firm has participated in more than $27 billion of transactions, developed or acquired over 240 projects, and built a portfolio exceeding 40 GW across the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia.  Our discussion traces Quinbrook's own transformation alongside that of the broader energy landscape. We revisit the firm's strategic exit from wind generation, marked by the sale of its Scout platform to Brookfield in 2023 for more than $1 billion, and explore how its focus has shifted toward utility-scale solar and long-duration energy storage across the United States and Australia.  More fundamentally, David explains how Quinbrook has moved beyond the era of single-technology investment funds. Instead of financing isolated generation assets, the firm now builds integrated, multi-technology platforms designed to solve specific customer problems. The objective is no longer simply to inject generic electrons into the grid, but to work backwards from the needs of large electricity consumers—particularly hyperscale datacenter operators—and develop bespoke energy solutions around them.  This philosophy is illustrated by Rowan, Quinbrook's datacenter development platform, which attracted a $1 billion co-investment from Blackstone. As hyperscalers race to deploy new computing capacity, speed has become the defining constraint. Waiting for the grid is no longer an option, making "bring your own power" an increasingly compelling proposition.  The conversation also explores how advances in software and long-duration energy storage are improving behind-the-meter performance, allowing energy infrastructure to become more resilient, flexible, and economically attractive.  Ultimately, David argues that we are witnessing a profound shift in thinking. In a world increasingly captivated by virtual technologies and digital intelligence, the greatest opportunities may lie in investing in the physical infrastructure that makes them all possible.“Let’s get Physical”  

In May 2026, our co-host Laurent Segalen had the privilege of chairing a high-profile panel hosted by SolarPower Europe at its annual Solar Power Summit in Brussels, one of the leading gatherings for the European solar and energy storage sectors.  In this episode, we bring you highlights from the hour-long conversation, featuring two distinguished industry leaders: Fredrik Andrén Sandberg from RWE and Hanna Kunzmann from EQT. Between them, their organisations oversee more than 10 GW of battery storage projects either in operation or under development, offering a unique perspective on the realities of financing and scaling storage assets.  The discussion addressed one of the most important questions facing the energy transition today: the bankability of battery storage investments. As battery deployment accelerates across Europe and beyond, investors, developers, and policymakers are increasingly focused on understanding the risks and opportunities that will determine the sector's long-term attractiveness.  The conversation examines battery bankability through four interconnected dimensions. First, technology risk: are batteries still exposed to meaningful technological uncertainty, or have the key challenges shifted towards commercial execution? Second, commercial risk: how should investors evaluate revenue models, merchant exposure, and the growing role of hybridisation strategies? Third, regulatory risk: what policy and market-design uncertainties could affect future returns, from evolving capacity mechanisms to unexpected rule changes? Finally, digital risk: how critical are cybersecurity, battery management systems (BMS), and energy management systems (EMS) in safeguarding performance and protecting asset value over the long term?  The session attracted a packed audience in Brussels and has since been widely praised for the quality, depth, and practical insights of the discussion. Whether you are an investor, developer, policymaker, or simply interested in the future of energy storage, this episode offers a valuable window into how some of the industry's leading players assess risk and opportunity in one of the fastest-growing sectors of the energy transition.