220. Deal Trends for M&A and Energy Financing - Mar26

Six years after her last appearance on the podcast (Episode 28, 15 June 2020), Natasha Luther-Jones  returns to join Laurent and Gerard for a lively catch-up on how both her career and the energy sector have evolved. What began with her being dubbed the “Queen of PPA” has expanded into a far broader role — prompting the hosts to crown her the “Energy Empress” as she now operates across the full spectrum of global energy and infrastructure.  Natasha reflects on the evolution as the Global co-chair in the Energy & Natural Resources practice at DLA Piper, describing how client demand has shifted from single-asset transactions to complex, multi-technology, cross-border platforms. The market has matured significantly, with renewables now firmly established as mainstream infrastructure and capital becoming more disciplined and selective.  A major growth area is battery energy storage systems (BESS), which have moved from being an adjunct to renewables to a core investment thesis in their own right. Storage, hybridisation and co-location strategies are reshaping project design, while revenue stacking and merchant exposure are demanding more sophisticated structuring and risk management.  On the M&A front, Natasha highlights sustained deal activity and strong valuations for scaled platforms and development pipelines. The market is firmly in a consolidation phase, with investors prioritising portfolio and platform transactions over single-asset deals. Innovative financing models, including holdco structures and cross-collateralisation across diversified portfolios, are increasingly replacing traditional asset-by-asset project finance.  The conversation also turns to the accelerating demand from AI-driven datacentres and the growing integration of digital infrastructure within energy complexes. As power demand surges, particularly for firm and clean energy, the convergence of energy and technology is creating new investment models and strategic partnerships — signalling that the next chapter of the energy transition will be defined as much by integration and capital structuring as by capacity build-out.

While Gerard is fixing his knee, Laurent invites Chris Seiple, Vice Chairman of WoodMac Power & Renewables group, to try to make sense of the scale of the coming power demand surge and the strain it is placing on today’s US market structures.AI-driven datacenter growth is pushing the US power system into uncharted territory. Roughly 180 GW of U.S. electricity commitments tied to datacenters represent about 30% incremental demand. Hyperscaler CAPEX is exploding. Demand is accelerating far faster than new supply can come online, setting up a near-term imbalance. In response, the U.S. utility sector is preparing for a potential $1.4 trillion investment supercycle over the next five years.In regulated markets, utilities are under pressure to modernize cost-of-service models and deliver massive capital programs while keeping electricity affordable. Companies such as Duke Energy, Southern Company, Entergy, and CenterPoint Energy are planning investments that run into the hundreds of billions.In deregulated markets, players like Constellation Energy, Vistra Corp., and NRG Energy face a structural mismatch: datacenters can be built faster than power plants, while price signals may not rise quickly enough to incentivize new generation. Some customers are exploring off-grid solutions, but these bring technical and economic challenges.The conclusion is clear: load growth is staggering. Parts of the system may move toward re-regulation, but that alone will not be enough. Rapid innovation—decentralized solutions, grid-enhancing technologies, faster interconnections, and deeper digitization—will be essential as utilities relearn how to build at scale and speed.  Check an excellent WoodMac report on the Datacentershttps://www.woodmac.com/horizons/us-data-centre-power-demand-challenges-electricity-market-model/  

Last month, Gerard Reid joined Shayle Kann, Managing Partner at Energy Impact Partners, for a world class and fast-moving conversation on the state and future of Climate Tech.   The discussion was organised by Carbon Equity and led by its co-founder Liza Rubinstein Malamud.Originally it featured a third guest, Will Dufton of Giant Ventures, whose contributions were fully edited for this episode (with apologies — and an open invitation to return).  First strong statement: the Silicon Valley-style climate tech era of 2021–2022 is over. Gerard is clear that carbon removal and hydrogen, at least as they were framed and funded during the hype cycle, are effectively dead. What comes now is a far more grounded, infrastructure-driven view of the transition.  Both guests are emphatically bullish on energy and AI. Shayle especially sees climate tech not as a standalone vertical, but as a horizontal that cuts across the entire economy. Anything that supports electrification, datacenters, and energy-hungry digital infrastructure represents a major opportunity. Gerard pushes the horizon even further, imagining datacenters in space.  A central theme is the convergence of AI and the physical world. Shayle argues that as large language models become commoditised, value will move from bits to atoms — from software to real-world systems, infrastructure, and industrial processes. Gerard complements this with a strong emphasis on resilience, positioning it as a defining investment lens for the coming decade.  On batteries, there is rare and total agreement. Both see them as the most important technology of our time, underpinning electrification, grid stability, transport, and the scaling of renewables.  What emerges is an intense, wide-ranging exchange between two of the sharpest minds in the energy transition — a true Battle Royale on where climate, energy, and technology are heading next.  You can watch the hour-long video here: https://youtu.be/H5YE1Upe0JI?si=HlgHKFOOjZj8Gygp    

Lithium has doubled in three months. Copper is printing record highs. Silver went vertical—then collapsed. The move was fast. The reversals were faster. Volatility isn’t elevated. It’s systemic.  But this isn’t just another commodity cycle. These metals sit at the core of the energy transition. They’re embedded in batteries, EVs, transmission lines, datacenters, wind turbines, and solar modules. When they move, the entire transition complex moves with them.  So, what are we really looking at? Is this a positioning squeeze in thin markets? Or the early tremors of a structural repricing?  The divide is clear. At The Carlyle Group, Jeff Currie argues we’re only “on the foothills of the Himalayas” — the early stage of a structural supercycle driven by electrification, grid build-out, and constrained supply. Ed Morse pushes back. High prices cure high prices. Capital flows. Supply responds. Markets rebalance. Cycles end the way they always have. Two very different frameworks. One structural. One cyclical.  To cut through the noise, Laurent and Gerard sit down with Matt Fernley, Managing Director at Battery Materials Review and Partner at RK Equity. They dissect what’s actually driving these rallies — inventory tightness, permitting bottlenecks, capital discipline, geopolitics, demand elasticity.  They confront the supply question head-on: Can new production realistically catch up — on time, on budget, and at scale? And they explore the technologies that could reshape the curve — from the re-emergence of direct lithium extraction (DLE) to the accelerating development of sodium-ion batteries.  This isn’t just about price volatility. It’s about whether the energy transition is entering a new cost regime. Because if these inputs are structurally repricing, everything downstream changes. And if they aren’t — the unwind could be just as violent.----Link to the report by the Volta Foundationhttps://volta.foundation/battery-report-2025/

Clean Energy equities have comfortably outperformed the major indices in 2025.  Laurent and Gerard are joined by friend of the show Shanu Mathew, an equity portfolio manager everyone in the sector knows to unpack what’s really driving this performance.  We begin by putting recent returns into a longer-term context — and by flagging an important caveat: some of the strongest results are coming from highly concentrated portfolios.  Shanu makes a critical distinction that often gets blurred in market commentary: equipment providers versus sellers of electrons. On one side sit companies like GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, Schneider Electric, Caterpillar — and the surprise guest, Bloom Energy. On the other are utilities and IPPs. The divergence is striking. Equipment manufacturers have gone ballistic; utilities have performed, but at a far more pedestrian pace.  The difference, unsurprisingly, is pricing power. Equipment suppliers — particularly those insulated from Chinese competition — have been able to push through aggressive price increases, turbocharged by surging demand from Hyperscalers. Utilities, by contrast, remain constrained by regulation, public scrutiny, and political pressure.  The result? Hyperscalers are increasingly looking to self-generation: reciprocating engines, fuel cells, and a growing enthusiasm for frontier technologies such as Enhanced Geothermal and Small Modular Reactors.  We walk through these alternatives, examine how public markets are valuing them today, and end where every cycle eventually leads us: Are we in a bubble? Or, as Chuck Prince, then CEO of Citigroup, famously put it on the eve of the 2008 financial crisis:“As long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance.”

Luca Pedretti, Co-Founder, Pexapark, returns to discuss how volatility, market design, and new contract structures are transforming power markets and renewable economics. What begins with PPA pricing quickly evolves into a broader conversation about where value is now created in the clean energy system.We start with the growing importance of IFRS 13 fair value accounting. In increasingly volatile markets, long-term forecasts are no longer sufficient. Market-implied PPA prices are moving faster than fundamentals and are becoming a key signal for future capture rates and risk, forcing investors to reassess how renewable assets are valued.The discussion then turns to Flexibility Purchase Agreements (FPAs), including tolls and floors for batteries. FPAs reflect a fundamental shift from generation toward flexibility and optimisation, as renewable-heavy systems face cannibalisation, negative prices, and widening price spreads.With clean sources now accounting for nearly half of EU power generation, these side effects are becoming structural. Solar capture rates have dropped sharply in markets such as Germany, negative prices now occur in thousands of hours across Europe, and curtailment and balancing costs are rising. Batteries have become the system’s primary response.We also explore how the buyer landscape is shifting. Hyperscalers and data centres are increasingly driving private PPAs, utilities are regaining relevance through trading and optimisation, and stand-alone renewable PPAs are showing signs of saturation. Despite this, capital deployment across clean energy continues to grow, signalling a reallocation of value rather than a slowdown.The conversation concludes with a look ahead. Many renewable assets financed under merchant assumptions are now misaligned with today’s pricing reality. Battery tolls and floors are scaling quickly, consolidation among IPPs is accelerating, and capture rates remain unstable. The open question remains whether any buyers are willing to pay a green premium for co-located and hybrid projects in a market where flexibility has become central to value creation.Link to Pexapark reportsIPPs:https://go.pexapark.com/next-gen-ipp-playbookRenewables Market Outlook 2026 - The Big Repricing: How volatility and BESS reshape clean energy markets (PPAs and FPAs): https://pexapark.com/pexapark-renewables-market-outlook-2026/ 

Resilience is the buzzword of the moment—from Gerard’s personal resilience on display in Davos last week to the critical issue of grid resilience.  The great Doug Houseman draws a useful distinction between reliability and resilience. “Reliability is about how well you keep the lights on, while resilience is about how quickly you can restore power after an outage.”  Over the past year, blackouts caused by extreme weather, human error, and physical attacks have exposed an uncomfortable truth: electricity is no longer invisible background infrastructure. It is the backbone of modern society, and when it fails, everything else quickly follows.  To explore these challenges, Laurent and Gerard sit down with Ronny Fiuren, one of the Nordics’ sharpest thinkers on energy. Ronny is the Founder of Mylicia Energy, an executive board member, and a strategic business developer with deep expertise in power markets, energy flexibility, and grid-oriented solutions.  Together, they discuss why resilience has evolved from a technical afterthought into a strategic priority, and what recent events across Europe and North America are really telling us about the condition of our power grids.  The conversation examines how decentralisation, flexibility, and the use of advanced technologies and AI matter more than ever. It also highlights the need for a shift in mindset, not only among grid operators but also regulators.  They explore the value of interconnectors in strengthening power systems, while also unpacking their political dimensions and the strong public emotions that can emerge when electricity prices rise suddenly.  Beyond weather-related disruptions and cyber threats, the discussion turns to new risks such as deliberate sabotage and how energy systems can be designed to cope with them.  From Scandinavia to the rest of Europe, this is a timely conversation about how to build power systems capable of withstanding shocks in an increasingly electrified and digital world.----Read Ember Europe Electricity Review  https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/european-electricity-review-2026/

The infrastructure fund industry has become one of the most powerful engines behind the rise of renewables and datacenters. With Zak Bentley, Americas Editor, Infrastructure Investor (part of the PEI Group), Laurent and Gerard cut through the noise to deliver a clear-eyed view of where the infrastructure market really stands today.  2025 smashed fundraising records, with c.USD300bn raised, but it also laid bare an uncomfortable truth: this is a market in consolidation mode. Capital is concentrating fast, and the biggest platforms are pulling further ahead.  Global Infrastructure Partners set a new benchmark with its USD25.2bn Fund V, the largest infrastructure fund ever raised. Macquarie closed more than USD8bn for Infrastructure Partners VI, including co-investments, while Blackstone raised USD5.5bn for Strategic Partners Infrastructure IV, the largest infrastructure secondaries fund to date. Brookfield, KKR, Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, and Ardian were also among the clear winners. Scale matters, and the leaders are taking an ever-larger share of the pie.  Fundraising may look healthier on the surface, but the process has become longer and harder. Time on the road has stretched to around 25 months, meaning a large portion of the capital “raised” in 2025 was secured across 2023 and 2024. This is not a detail; it is the clearest symptom of the barbell dynamic now dominating infrastructure fundraising, where capital flows either to the very largest platforms or to highly differentiated specialists.  Sector trends are also evolving. Airports and toll roads, written off after COVID, are back in favour. Social infrastructure is fading. ESG has been reset, not abandoned, and gas infrastructure is once again being embraced, often relabelled as energy transition to make it palatable. Datacenters sit at the centre of everything, hoovering up capital and pulling renewables and grid infrastructure along with them.  The discussion goes straight at the hard questions: are genuinely new sectors emerging, can today’s giants realistically keep getting bigger, and is there still room for ultra-specialised strategies? The answer is increasingly clear. Bigger is not automatically better. Investors are becoming far more selective, and many are shifting capital toward focused, mid-market funds that offer expertise rather than sheer scale.  -----Berlin Infrastructure Conference – 24 to 27/3https://www.peievents.com/en/checkout/?peievcc-event-id=113021    Link to Nat Bullard – 200 pages yearly deck https://www.nathanielbullard.com/presentations      

Heat pumps sit at the heart of Europe’s strategy to cut emissions and reduce dependence on imported gas. Under the EU’s REPowerEU plan, the bloc is targeting 60 million heat pumps by 2030. By the end of 2025, almost 30 million units were already installed — progress, but still only halfway to the goal.Gerard and Laurent are joined by Paul Kenny, Director General of the European Heat Pump Association (EHPA), to unpack why adoption has surged in countries such as Japan, Scandinavia and parts of the US, while many European markets continue to lag.After a strong year in 2022, European heat pump sales slowed in 2023 and 2024 amid high upfront costs, a shortage of qualified installers, weaker policy support and an unfavourable price relationship between gas and electricity. Paul explains why confidence is returning in 2025, with 1m heat pumps sold across 13 European countries in the first half of 2025, a 9% increase on 2024.We also look beyond residential heating to the rapid rise of industrial heat pumps, which could become a major decarbonisation tool for sectors requiring heat below 200°C, including food processing and pharmaceuticals. The conversation explores how heat pumps can add flexibility to the power system, in some cases reducing the need for battery storage, and why data centre heat management is emerging as a key new application.As the leading voice of Europe’s heat pump industry, EHPA is working to make heat pumps the preferred technology for sustainable heating and cooling — strengthening Europe’s competitiveness, resilience and energy security in the process.-----At Redefining Energy, we are excited to be part of International Energy Week, where some of the biggest names in global energy come together for a packed agenda tackling the ideas, technologies, and policies shaping the future. ENGIE's CEO Catherine MacGregor will be speaking, as well as IEA Executive Director Dr Fatih Birol and Shell's CEO Wael Sawan.  Join us there and get 20% off your ticket with the promo code REIEWEEK20. https://www.ieweek.co.uk/--Finally, Gerard and Laurent are invited by Jan Rosenow, professor of energy and climate policy at Oxford university and an energy policy expert, for a live session at Oriel College in Oxford on 25/2/26.    

Laurent and Gerard sit down with Jo-Jo Hubbard, CEO of Electron, to explore why the centre of gravity in the energy transition is shifting decisively toward the distribution grid. Jo-Jo explains why the “last mile” is becoming the true engine of system flexibility, how demand at the edge must become a core resource, and why DSOs aren’t confused about flexibility at all — they simply respond to the incentives regulators design. Flexibility, she argues, isn’t replacing grid reinforcement but making it smarter, helping utilities target and sequence investments far more efficiently at a time when distribution upgrade costs are rising quickly.We discuss how to escape the sector’s obsession with endless pilots, and why real scale only arrives when year-round, rules-based products give suppliers and aggregators the confidence to automate and invest. The conversation then turns to the economics of location — from REMA to zonal pricing — and why congestion at the distribution level is where flexibility competes most effectively with copper. Jo-Jo also lays out what it takes to get millions of households engaged without overwhelming them, making the experience effortless, automated and consistent across retailers.She breaks down the hardest parts of the DER orchestration stack, noting that the real challenge isn’t cloud infrastructure but standardising how device capabilities and network constraints are described across a patchwork of utilities. Looking ahead to 2030, Jo-Jo argues that no single asset class “wins”: value depends on time, place and service, with EVs likely providing tens of gigawatts of potential flexibility but orchestration remaining the true hero.We cover the future of interoperability and open data — not via global standards, but through adapters and translation layers similar to those that shaped the internet — and examine the cybersecurity demands of cloud-based orchestration as it becomes critical infrastructure. Jo-Jo also gives a global view of progress, from Australia’s rapid adoption to the US’s accelerating regulatory push and Europe’s mix of strong TSO-level progress but uneven local action. She closes with reflections on whether the centralised grid is dying, who should ultimately control DERs, whether blockchain still has a role, and what a nightmare scenario looks like in a DER-dominated world.A fast, clear, and deeply insightful conversation on the rise of flexibility, the reinvention of the distribution grid, and the technologies and rules needed to orchestrate millions of devices.