199. The LNG Mirage - Oct25

The oil and gas industry is clinging to the narrative that we're entering a "Golden Age of Gas" — especially when it comes to LNG. Riding this assumption, companies have been pouring in investments at an aggressive pace, with plans to double LNG export capacity by the end of the decade.US LNG FIDs are breaking all records in 2025, with 55 mtpa of liquefaction capacity sanctioned since the start of the year. This is the second-best year for global LNG FIDs (Final Investment Decision), second only to 2019, when over 70 mtpa of FIDs .The latest example is the 14bnUSD FID for Sempra’s Port Arthur 2 in Texas in September 2025, mostly financed by large funds Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Goldman Sachs.Currently, LNG exports make up about 16% of U.S. gas consumption. Projections suggest that figure could rise to 30% by 2030. But two major uncertainties loom large:Demand: Will international markets absorb this flood of LNG? China's pivot toward Russian and Central Asian pipelines, Qatar’s own ramp-up in production, and Europe’s push to reduce reliance on expensive imported gas all cast doubt on future demand.Supply: Will the U.S. have enough cheap gas to meet this export surge — especially as the AI boom is expected to drive up domestic gas use, while the federal government places increasing restrictions on renewable energy development?To unpack these critical questions, we’ve invited Justin Mikulka to explore what he calls the “LNG Mirage.” He’ll walk us through hard-hitting facts and trends that investors are currently overlooking. At events like CERAWeek and Gastech, the fossil fuel industry often seems to talk only to itself — echoing reassurances while ignoring warning signs. But winter is coming.About the Speaker:Justin Mikulka has spent the past decade investigating and reporting on the energy sector, with a particular focus on the shifting economics between fossil fuels and emerging clean technologies. He publishes regular insights at Powering the Planet and currently serves as the Communications Director at Oilfield Witness, a U.S.-based nonprofit that uses optical gas imaging to document methane emissions from the oil and gas industry.Reports in reference: Global Gas Flaring Tracker Report from World Bank https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/bd2432bbb0e514986f382f61b14b2608-0400072025/original/Global-Gas-Flaring-Tracker-Report-July-2025.pdf    We thank Abloco Energy for supporting the show. www.abloco.energy----Epilog post recording:"Venture Global shares plunged more than 20% on Friday following its loss in an arbitration case against BP, which accused the US liquefied natural gas producer of breaching contracts to profit from higher prices at the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.The case was one of several pursued by Venture Global’s customers alleging it failed to deliver shipments under long-term supply contracts and instead sold them for higher prices on the spot market when gas prices soared in early 2022.BP’s victory is a major blow to one of the largest US LNG exporters, which now faces a separate hearing to determine damages in the case. The UK oil group is seeking damages in excess of $1bn, as well as interest, costs and attorneys’ fees."

Germany is experiencing a battery blitz. The market is expected to triple from 2GW to 6GW in less than two years. To give a bit of context, Zach Williams from Modo Energy, gives us the big picture and fundamentals of the German battery market.  Legacy developers have not yet been able to catch that wave, but newcomers have. We bring on one those new pioneers, Philipp Man, CEO of Terralayr.  In less than three years, Philipp has managed to set up a company which operates or currently builds 150MW of batteries in Germany; more importantly he has managed to sign some of the first tolling agreements with heavyweights such as Vattenfall and RWE. His approach combines medium size batteries (10-30MW) rather than gigantic ones.  The Vattenfall-Terralayr deal is a pioneering seven-year, 55 MW multi-asset capacity tolling agreement for a decentralized fleet of battery energy storage systems (BESS) across Germany, announced in May 2025. Described as an industry-first "virtual battery tolling structure," it marks a significant shift from traditional single-asset tolling models, enabling scalable and flexible energy storage solutions without significant capital investment from Vattenfall.  With Philipp, we dissect his lightspeed approach in a seemingly bureaucratic environment, we analyse how he has been to put assets on the ground so fast, and his approach to commercialisation of flexibility combining hard assets and a digital layer.  We discuss the price formation of tolling agreements, the “tranching” of capacity and how he sees the future. Is Terralayr a tech company? Is it an infrastructure play? Well, a bit of both.

With Gerard away, Laurent invited another Irishman, Killian Daly, to dive into a technical—but critically important—topic: carbon accounting, power procurement, the GHG Protocol (v3), and the push for 24/7 green energy.For as long as we can remember, companies have tried to boost their green credentials—high rewards if successful, limited consequences if they fall short. To curb exaggerated claims, standards like the GHG Protocol emerged.Laurent was part of the original task force that developed the first version of the GHG Protocol. He recalls the pivotal moment that led to the creation of Scope 2: an infamous visit to the Tomago aluminium smelter in Australia back in 2000. Fast forward two decades, and Killian Daly—now leading the forward-thinking organization EnergyTag—is driving efforts to embed 24/7 carbon accounting into the upcoming revision of Scope 2 of the GHG Protocol.It’s a crucial battle—for transparency, integrity, digital innovation, and sound economics. Opposing us are certain (not all) Big Tech companies, whose actual emissions far exceed their green marketing, and fossil fuel lobbyists doing their best to delay progress.But we are making progress—and we need your help. Join the fight. Reach out to Killian Daly at EnergyTag to see how you can get involved.https://energytag.org/And don’t miss a major event: Green Energy Procurement – 10th October in London, hosted with Renewabl, S&P Global, and Shoosmiths. Last year the event was 250% oversubscribed. This year’s venue is bigger—but spots are going fast.Secure your place now:https://www.renewabl.com/post/join-us-for-renewabl-day-2025-inside-the-ppa-market  

Aviation and marine transport together account for approximately 15% of global oil consumption—a substantial share driven by sectors that are among the hardest to decarbonize. Unlike road transport or power generation, these industries face unique constraints: the high energy density required, long operating ranges, and the limitations of onboard storage mean that electrification or hydrogen solutions remain technologically and economically unfeasible in the near to medium term.In response, policymakers and industry leaders are increasingly focusing on low-carbon liquid fuels as transitional solutions. Chief among these are Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA), both of which can be used in existing infrastructure and engines with minimal modification. These fuels can be of biological origin—typically derived from waste oils, agricultural residues, or purpose-grown feedstocks—or synthetic origin, such as Power-to-Liquid (PtL) fuels produced via electrolysis and CO₂ capture.Globally, significant efforts are underway to scale up these alternatives. The European Union, for instance, has introduced blending mandates through the ReFuelEU Aviation and FuelEU Maritime regulations, requiring a gradual increase in the share of SAF or other renewable fuels used in transport. These policies are supported by a range of subsidies, research programs, and emissions trading mechanisms (e.g., EU ETS inclusion for aviation and shipping), all designed to stimulate supply and demand for cleaner fuels.To help unpack the complex interplay of technical, economic, and regulatory challenges, we invited Callum McPherson, Chair of its Sustainable Business Forum and Head of Commodities at Investec, a London-based investment bank. With a mandate to structure and trade a wide array of fuels, Callum provides real-world insight into how these markets are evolving—and the limitations that remain.Some of the key topics Laurent and Gerard explored with Callum included: Which green fuels have realistic pathways to scale, and which are unlikely to work due to poor energy return on investment, unsustainable feedstocks, or prohibitively high costs? How will regional mandates, particularly those in the EU, impact global markets—and will they be enforceable in practice? What role will synthetic fuels play, given their dependence on clean electricity, high capital costs, and still-immature supply chains?What emerges is a highly nuanced picture. Despite the political momentum and technological progress, the fundamental economics remain challenging. Current estimates suggest that the cost of abating one tonne of CO₂ in these sectors can easily exceed €1,000 requiring considerable public support, whether stick or carrot.High costs and regulatory uncertainties are probably some of the reasons why Shell has decided not to complete the construction of a SAF refinery in Rotterdam.Laurent and Gerard conclude that while green fuels are a necessary part of the decarbonization toolkit, they are far from a silver bullet. The financial and ecological trade-offs are significant, and at current cost trajectories, these fuels will make only a marginal dent in overall emissions curves—at least in the near term.  Finally, an excellent book on the general topic of biofuels by Michael Grunwald:  "We Are Eating the Earth: The Race to Fix Our Food System and Save Our Climate."“The views and opinions expressed by Callum Macpherson are his own and are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial products or commodities. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information discussed. Listeners should not place reliance on any of the information share, and we accept no responsibility or liability for any loss arising directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. Commodities and other investments carry risks, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Before making any investment or financial decision, you should seek independent advice from a qualified professional, taking into account your own objectives and circumstances.”    

Battery technology lies at the core of the global energy transition, but managing and optimizing battery systems has become a highly specialized discipline. ACCURE is a cutting-edge startup that is redefining how batteries are monitored and operated.Using artificial intelligence, advanced sensors, and deep electrochemical expertise, ACCURE has established itself in the field of predictive battery analytics. The company currently supports over 6 gigawatt-hours of battery systems across various sectors including electric vehicles, grid-scale energy storage, marine applications, and insurance.In this episode, Gerard and Laurent are joined by Dr. Kai-Philipp Kairies, CEO and co-founder of ACCURE, to explore How cloud-based analytics are driving advancements in battery safety, performance, and longevity.The conversation delves into the electrochemical processes occurring inside batteries and how sensors provide critical insights. We also examine the role of Battery Management Systems (BMS) and Energy Management Systems (EMS) as the digital infrastructure of battery operation and how predictive analytics represents a new category of operational capability for battery fleets.From early warning systems that prevent thermal runaway to precise lifetime predictions that influence asset financing, ACCURE demonstrates how data-driven insights can transform battery systems into safer, more efficient, and more profitable energy assets.Laurent and Gerard enjoy having dynamic start-ups on the show, that foster the Energy Transition.

Water, wind, sunlight — the driving forces behind renewable energy. The better we can predict them, the more we can accelerate progress and reduce risk.  Weather forecasting is undergoing a quantum leap, powered by breakthroughs in satellites, drones, and artificial intelligence. Once the exclusive domain of national weather services, the industry is now being transformed by a new wave of tech-driven startups. And the market is booming.  In this episode, Laurent and Gerard welcome Dr. Martin J. Fengler, a German mathematician and the founder and CEO of Meteomatics AG. Based in Switzerland, Meteomatics is a cutting-edge weather technology company with over 130 employees and a client base of 600 — including high-profile names like NASA, Lockheed Martin, Toyota, Tesla, and numerous utility companies. About 25% of its clients are in the energy sector.  Meteomatics stands out not only for its AI-driven weather models but also for its proprietary fleet of weather drones, capable of flying up to 6 kilometres high, delivering ultra-precise atmospheric data. The company has raised over $35 million in venture capital to date.  In our conversation, we explore the future of weather tech, its role in tackling climate change, the growing risks of extreme weather, surprising use cases — and yes, even wind theft.  Heads up: This one’s for the geeks.And at the end, Laurent sings for Lisa

Three wise men met and discussed the Seven Sins of The Energy Transition. Laurent, Gerard and Michael dissect seven sectors that have captured attention, investments and public money and are at best dead ends, at worst disasters waiting to happen.Greed — “Subsidy Mining in a Lab Coat” (Carbon Capture & Direct Air Capture)A capital-intensive detour that soaks up public money while delivering trivial abatement at extreme cost, great PR for incumbents, weak climate math. Gluttony — “Three Kilowatt-Hours to Move One” (Hydrogen-for-Energy)An energy-wasting appetite: make H₂ with clean power, then throw most of that power away moving, compressing, liquefying, and reconverting it—useful only in narrow industrial niches. Sloth — “Always ‘On Time’ by 2040” (Small Modular Reactors)Perma-prototype promises that stay years late and dollars short while wind, solar, and storage deploy at scale now. Pride — “We Will Bottle the Sun” (Fusion Salvationism)Technological hubris as strategy: a captivating physics quest, but not a climate plan for the 2030s. Invest in science, don’t budget on miracles. Lust — “Drop-In Fantasies for Every Engine” (Biofuels-Everywhere)The seductive promise of pouring yesterday’s fuels into tomorrow’s problems; keep them for hard-to-electrify edges, not as a universal fix. Wrath — “Culture War at Sea” (America’s Offshore-Wind Own-Goals)Ideological backlash, litigation, and policy whiplash torch viable projects and local supply chains while the rest of the world builds.Envy — “Green Halo by Checkbox” (ESG Box-Ticking)Chasing ratings and labels instead of real-world decarbonization and cash-flow-relevant risk; better to separate E, S, and G and measure outcomes   

Gerard delivered a keynote on Digitalisation, AI, Supply Chains and Electrification at the EcoVadis Global Summit.Gerard Reid argues that we are living through a new industrial revolution driven by digitalization, AI, and electrification, comparable in scale to the steam and automobile revolutions of the past. He highlights how China is rapidly outpacing Western forecasts in areas like AI, solar power, and electric vehicles, reshaping global competitiveness. Reid stresses that AI will transform industries—from healthcare to transport to energy—while massively increasing the world’s demand for electricity, which will increasingly be met through solar and battery storage. His central message is that businesses and countries must adopt a growth mindset, embrace AI as an enabler, and adapt quickly—or risk irrelevance in the face of accelerating global change.EcoVadis is a globally recognized platform that provides sustainability ratings and assessments for companies, focusing on their Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) performance. It evaluates businesses across four key themes: Environment, Labor and Human Rights, Ethics, and Sustainable Procurement. These assessments help companies manage ESG risks, ensure compliance, and improve sustainability practices across their operations and supply chains.

This is a re-release of the legendary interview by Michael Barnard of Pr Bent Flyvbjerg on our sister show ”Redefining Energy Tech” Professor Bent Flyvbjerg, an expert on megaprojects and author of How Big Things Get Done, shares insights from a database of over 16,000 projects, revealing that 99.5% fail to meet expectations in budget, timeline, or benefits.He stresses the value of learning from successful projects, especially in renewable energy, where solar, wind, and transmission projects outperform nuclear power, which suffers from regulatory hurdles and skill shortages.Flyvbjerg introduces key concepts like modularity, repeatability, and the “window of doom”—the critical early phase when delays can derail projects. He contrasts fast, modular successes like the Tesla Gigafactory with slow, complex projects like nuclear plants and the Olympics.The episode also compares pumped hydro and battery storage, highlighting the role of risk management, stakeholder alignment, and using data-based heuristics to guide project decisions. Listeners are encouraged to understand base rates, study variance charts (especially Chapter 9 of Flyvbjerg's book), and develop their own heuristics for better megaproject outcomes.

This Spring, Laurent Segalen was invited by Solar Power Europe to moderate a panel, during the Solar Power Summit, around the theme ”Winning the Flex challenges”.The Speakers were:Andrea Wechsler, Member of the European Parliament, EPP, GermanyPaula Rey Garcia, Acting HoU Renewables & Energy System Integration, DG ENER, European CommissionNick Bitsios, Head of Brussels Office, MetlenJuan Rivier Abbad, Head of Global Renewables Regulation, IberdrolaVlasios Souflis, COO EMEA, Lightsource BPJose Manuel Carvalho, Head of Renewable Energy JV & Partnerships, Arcelor MittalThere is a European Policy being developed called the Green Industrial Deal. What is it? Does it work? Does it answer the current issues faced by Solar developers and Energy Consumers?The panel confront the views of various actors, from policy makers to the private sector. A very lively debate with unexpected outcomes.  We thank Walburga Hemetsberger and the whole team of Solar Power Europe for organising that great event