US Market Open: Crude at highs but below USD 100/bbl amid concerns on US-Iran ceasefire fragility

US President Trump threatened massive military escalation if Iran deal terms are not met, vowed no nuclear weapons, and they are to secure the Strait of Hormuz.Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister said the Speaker of Parliament will lead Iran’s delegation for the talks, and the exchange of messages continues via Pakistan, Al Jazeera reported.European bourses pull back as ceasefire begins to crack, Citi reinforces its OW stance on Banks; US equity futures soft.DXY firms on hawkish Fed Minutes, NZD continues to gain amid hawkish Breman.Fixed benchmarks pull back from highs, US PCE ahead. Crude nurses losses as ceasefire hopes wane while the IRGC announces a new Hormuz corridor.Looking ahead, highlights include US Initial Jobless Claims (Apr/04), PCE Final (Feb), GDP Final (Q4), Atlanta Fed GDP, NBP Policy Announcement, Banxico Minutes. Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump threatened massive military escalation if Iran deal terms are not met, vowed no nuclear weapons, and they are to secure the Strait of Hormuz.Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said three clauses of the 10-point plan have been violated so far, and as such, a bilateral ceasefire or negotiations is unreasonable.IRGC claimed on Thursday that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed sharply and then stopped following what it said was an Israeli ceasefire violation in Lebanon, according to CNN.FOMC Minutes stated that many said persistently higher oil prices could keep inflation elevated long enough to justify rate rises.APAC stocks were lower in a mild pullback from yesterday's ceasefire-fuelled extremes; European equity futures indicate a marginally lower open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.1%.Looking ahead, highlights include German Trade Balance (Feb), Industrial Production (Feb), US Initial Jobless Claims (Apr/04), PCE Final (Feb), GDP Final (Q4), Atlanta Fed GDP, NBP Policy Announcement, Banxico Minutes. Comments from SNB's Schlegel. Supply from Spain, UK & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump announced he is to suspend the bombing of Iran for two weeks, subject to Iran opening up the Strait of Hormuz, while he stated that this will be a double-sided ceasefire. Energy slumps, with Brent slipping below USD 95/bbl.Trump confirmed they received a 10-point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate, while he stated that almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the US and Iran.Iranian Press SNN noted of a potential ceasefire violation, highlighting several explosions that occurred in Siri and Lavan islands.Iran’s National Security Council said that within a few hours, if firing does not stop in southern Lebanon, the air and missile unit will bomb Tel AvivGlobal equities find comfort, airlines and miners highly benefit.USD hit, Kiwi outperforms amid RBNZ hike discussion.Bonds soar and the curve steepens, with central bank paring back hawkish bets. Looking ahead, highlights include FOMC Minutes, Speakers including Fed's Daly, Waller & US President Trump, Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump announced he is to suspend the bombing of Iran for two weeks, subject to Iran opening up the Strait of Hormuz, while he stated that this will be a double-sided ceasefire.Trump confirmed they received a 10-point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate, while he stated that almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the US and Iran.Iran accepted Pakistan's two-week ceasefire proposal, with the ceasefire approved by the Supreme Leader, while Iran said negotiations with the US will be held in Islamabad to finalise details and that talks are to begin on Friday, April 10th and may be extended if both sides agree.Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi’s statement, which was posted by Trump on Truth, stated that for a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran’s Armed ForcesAPAC stocks rallied with markets euphoric and relieved after US President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire; European equity futures indicate a stellar open for the cash market with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up over 5%.Crude futures tumbled beneath the USD 100/bbl level, DXY was pressured; RBNZ maintained rates as expected but provided some hawkish-leaning rhetoric.Looking ahead, highlights include French Trade Balance (Feb), EZ Retail Sales (Feb), PPI (Feb), FOMC Minutes, Speakers including Fed's Daly, Waller & US President Trump, Supply from Germany & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Pakistani reporter Anas Mallick suggested that the interlocutors are closer than ever for an agreement to get a "framework of understanding for ceasefire" between US and Iran.Crude futures reverse earlier gains amid some positive noise ahead of Iran deadline.European bourses gain, UMG NA surges on PSH LN bid; US equity futures flat.USD returns below the 100.00 handle on US/Iran optimism.Fixed benchmarks higher as energy continues to dictate price action.Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Employment Change Weekly, Durable Goods (Feb), RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (Apr), Atlanta Fed GDP, President Trump's Iran deadline, EIA STEO, Speakers including Fed's Williams, Goolsbee & Jefferson, Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said he thinks talks are going well with Iran and reiterated the Tuesday, 7th April 20:00EDT deadline.Trump said the US has plans to decimate Iran's bridges by Tuesday night, and he threatened that every power plant will be out of business at midnight, in which decimation would happen over a four-hour period.US President Trump said on the Iran deadline it will not be moved again, and they have not signed any ceasefire.Two Israeli sources and diplomats familiar with the details of the talks said there is a very low chance of an agreement between Iran and the US.APAC stocks traded cautiously following the positive lead from the US and with all focus remaining on geopolitics; European equity futures indicate a mildly higher open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2%.Looking ahead, highlights include Global S&P Services/Composite PMIs Final (Mar), Swedish CPIF Prelim. (Mar), US ADP Employment Change Weekly, Durable Goods (Feb), RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (Apr), Atlanta Fed GDP, President Trump's Iran deadline, EIA STEO, Speakers including Fed's Goolsbee & Jefferson, Supply from Germany & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump posted on Saturday that time is running out, and there are ‘48 hours before all Hell will reign down on them. He also reiterated his threat to Iran to open the Strait, or they will be living in hell, and posted "Tuesday, 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time!".The Pakistan Army Chief reportedly held separate calls with US VP Vance, Envoy Witkoff and Iran’s Araghchi, according to a Reuters source report. A proposal for a final agreement was outlined, and if agreed, it would lead to an immediate ceasefire and the reopening of Hormuz. Crude choppy on geopolitics with losses this morning amid ceasefire efforts.US equity futures tick higher on improved risk tone; European equities closed for holidays. DXY dips below 100 as crude eases on war-ending efforts.T-notes rise, ISM Services and Trump comments ahead. Looking ahead, highlights include ISM Services PMI (Mar) and comments by US President Trump.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said in his primetime address that the mission in Iran will be finished very fast and the US will hit Iran very hard over the next 2–3 weeks.Trump warned that the US will strike Iran’s electric plants if there is no deal and could also target its oil facilities.Energy surges as Brent nears USD 110/bbl; metals slump.Equities fall as Trump reignites tension with Iran, BAYN GY subject to potential 100% levy.DXY regains the 100 handle, CHF little-moved following inflation print.Fixed income under pressure as benchmarks continue to be driven by energy prices.Looking ahead, highlights include US Challenger Job Cuts (Mar), Initial Jobless Claims (Mar/28), Trade Balance (Feb), Canadian Trade Balance (Feb). Speakers include Fed's Logan & Bowman. Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said in his primetime address that the mission in Iran will be finished very fast and the US will hit Iran very hard over the next 2–3 weeks.Trump warned that the US will strike Iran’s electric plants if there is no deal and could also target its oil facilities.Crude futures climbed with WTI crude ascending back above the USD 105/bbl level after the tough talk from US President Trump at his primetime address dampened hopes of a de-escalation.DXY strengthened as risk sentiment soured alongside US President Trump's primetime address; 10yr UST futures declined as higher oil prices stoked inflationary concerns following Trump's primetime address.APAC stocks failed to sustain initial gains after US President Trump's primetime address; Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 2.0%.Looking ahead, highlights include Swiss Inflation (Mar), US Challenger Job Cuts (Mar), Initial Jobless Claims (Mar/28), Trade Balance (Feb), Canadian Trade Balance (Feb), and UK DMP. Speakers include Fed's Logan & Bowman. Supply from France.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump to deliver a nationwide address on Wednesday to give an important update on Iran at 21:00EDT/02:00BST, according to the White House.US President Trump told NBC News on Iran war "it is coming to an end". Iranian Deputy Speaker of Parliament said the "Strait of Hormuz will never be opened, there has been no negotiation and there will be no negotiation", Fars reported.Global equities rebound on positive US-Iran commentary, Banks benefit the most while NKE hit after weak China guidance.Crude softer but off lows; metals mostly firmer.DXY slips on a "de-escalation" trade, ADP Employment ahead.Fixed income benefitting from lower energy prices as hawkish pricing pares back slightly.Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Employment Change (Mar), Retail Sales (Feb), S&P Manufacturing PMI Final (Mar), ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar), Atlanta Fed GDP, BoC Minutes (Mar), Speakers including ECB's Cipollone, Fed's Musalem, Barr and President Trump.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk