Martin Armstrong: The Fed has Lost Control of Inflation

Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Lobo Tiggre, the author and publisher of TheIndependentSpeculator.com. Lobo leads a team that provides independent due diligence and evaluations for investors, filling a role similar to consumer reports or brokers. He discusses the growth of their business despite industry downturns, reflecting on Rick Rule's advice about building teams and filling different market niches. The conversation shifts to macroeconomic topics, including the impact of fiscal dominance on monetary policy and potential economic consequences. Lobo shares his past prediction of a U.S. recession in 2024 being incorrect and credits Lynn Alden's fiscal dominance thesis for ongoing deficit spending. Lobo also explains the implications of soft landings, potential stagflation or reflationary economies, and the role of copper as an economic indicator. He emphasizes the importance of current market trends over ideological theories and due diligence in investment decisions. He shares his highest conviction trades for gold, uranium, and copper for various years, with copper being his top pick for 2025 based on bullish economic context and the favorable supply-demand fundamentals. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - The Gang of Rogues5:16 - Macro Picture & Signs9:40 - Fed & Fiscal Dominance14:30 - Voting Harder16:44 - Industrial Recession?23:53 - Inflation Waves32:14 - Dr. Copper?36:57 - Fundamentals Matter?42:00 - Copper Grades & Costs45:45 - Pre Prod. Sweet Spot52:20 - Promises Vs. Reality55:14 - High Conviction Play58:06 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Lobo's team provides independent investment evaluations, filling a role like consumer reports or brokers. Macroeconomic topics discussed include fiscal dominance, recession predictions, and economic implications. Copper is his top pick for 2025 due to bullish economic context and favorable supply-demand fundamentals. Guest Links:Website: https://independentspeculator.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/duediligenceguyFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/louis.james.965580/Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lobotiggre/ Lobo Tiggre, aka Louis James, is the founder and CEO of Louis James LLC, and the principal analyst and editor of IndependentSpeculator.com. He researched and recommended speculative opportunities in Casey Research publications from 2004 to 2018, writing under the name "Louis James." While with Casey Research, he learned the ins and outs of resource speculation from the legendary speculator Doug Casey. Although frequently mistaken for one, Mr. Tiggre is not a professional geologist. However, his long tutelage under world-class geologists, writers, and investors resulted in an exceptional track record. A fully transparent, documented, and verifiable track record is a central feature of the IndependentSpeculator. Mr. Tiggre will put his own money into the speculations he writes about, so his readers will always know he has "skin in the game" with them.

Tom Bodrovics welcomes back former congressman Dr. Ron Paul from Texas and Liberty Report host to discuss the link between liberty and the economy. Dr. Paul insists that freer societies are more prosperous, advocating for a sound monetary policy as crucial for economic health. He condemns interventionist policies and criticizes the Federal Reserve's manipulation of interest rates, citing 1921 as evidence of a hands-off approach leading to a better recovery from an economic downturn. During the conversation, Dr. Paul expresses his aspiration to terminate the Federal Reserve and proposes steps towards accomplishing this goal, including repealing the Federal Reserve Act and enforcing the Constitution. Although he acknowledges that the process might not be easy due to the nation's addiction to low-interest rates and easy money, he emphasizes the importance of recognizing inflation as a tax on people's money and advocates for Fed auditing as a path to transparency. Dr. Paul supports gold-backed bonds as a means of promoting fiscal restraint and offering individuals a valuable savings opportunity. He denounces tariffs as an ill-conceived solution for economic matters, suggesting instead the elimination of burdensome business regulations. Furthermore, Dr. Paul expresses concerns about government information's lack of transparency and encourages citizens to educate themselves on constitutional principles in order to safeguard individual liberties. Dr. Paul concludes by urging listeners to act upon their convictions and principles, underlining the significance of education in history and economics. He also presents his homeschooling curriculum as a substantial contribution to fostering individual liberty and countering excessive government control over education and healthcare. Ultimately, Dr. Paul underscores the importance of personal accountability and the risks of government intervention in diverse areas. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:36 - Economics of Liberty3:24 - Government Efficiency5:00 - Audit & End The Fed12:58 - Shelton & Gold Bonds14:36 - Tariffs & Regulations23:12 - Accurate Information?25:36 - What Should We Do?27:29 - Wrap Up Guest LinksTwitter: https://x.com/ronpaulWebsite: http://www.ronpaullibertyreport.com/Website: http:///ronpaulinstitute.org Ron Paul is an American author, physician, and former politician. He was the U.S. Representative for Texas' 14th and 22nd congressional districts. Ron represented the 22nd congressional district from 1976 to 1977 and from 1979 to 1985 and then represented the 14th congressional district, which included Galveston, from 1997 to 2013. On three occasions, he sought the United States presidency: as the Libertarian Party nominee in 1988 and as a candidate in the Republican primaries of 2008 and 2012. Paul is a critic of the federal government's fiscal policies, especially the Federal Reserve and the tax policy, as well as the military-industrial complex and the War on Drugs. Paul has also been a vocal critic of mass surveillance policies such as the USA PATRIOT Act and the NSA surveillance programs. Paul was the first chairman of the conservative PAC Citizens for a Sound Economy and has been characterized as the "intellectual godfather" of the Tea Party movement. A native of the Pittsburgh suburb of Green Tree, Pennsylvania, Paul is a graduate of Gettysburg College and the Duke University School of Medicine, where he earned his medical degree. He served as a flight surgeon in the U.S. Air Force from 1963 to 1968. In addition, Ron worked as an obstetrician-gynecologist from the 1960s to the 1980s. He became the first Representative in history to serve concurrently with a son or daughter in the Senate when his son, Rand Paul, was elected to the U.S. Senate from Kentucky in 2010. Paul is a Senior Fellow of the Mises Institute and has been an active writer, publishing on the topics of political and economic theory and publicizing the ideas of econ...

Tom welcomes back Martin Armstrong from Armstrong Economics for a discussion on the geopolitical landscape and growing frustration with government. Armstrong expresses his belief in an increasing frequency of impactful events due to disillusionment with western governments. Martin delves into the deep state, historical examples of centralized governments leading to instability, and the need for decentralization and respect for individual sovereignty. Armstrong shares personal experiences and insights about Trump and RFK's anti-war stances. Martin touches upon historical issues, including World War II, communism, the Roman Empire, war causes, and the use of sanctions. Concerns are raised about unsustainable debt systems and their correlation with conflict. Tom pivots the conversation to Argentina's recent budget surplus, potential application in making cuts to U.S. government waste. Criticisms follow regarding Federal policies to undermine U.S. States and inact gun control. Predictions for an economic depression by 2032 are shared, with discussions on differences between a recession and a depression, government debt defaults, interconnectedness of economies, and concerns over career politicians. The role of the U.S. dollar as a global reserve currency, and potential implications for the world economy are also discussed. China and Russia's potential role in a global economic takeover, natural resources, the Ottoman Empire, monetary crises, gold on the yield curve, practical implications, gun control, authoritarianism, and vigilance are among other topics covered. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:35 - Many Geopolitical Shifts12:32 - Trump & Ending Conflict27:39 - Cutting Back Gov't36:30 - Civil Unrest Preps46:15 - 2032 - The End Game53:42 - Trump, BRICS, & Dollar1:04:54 - Russia's Resources1:07:58 - Risks & Solutions1:13:50 - Shelton & Gold Bonds1:18:33 - National Guard Concerns1:21:08 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Growing disillusionment with governments leads to increased impactful events: Armstrong emphasizes decentralization and respect for sovereignty to prevent global unrest. Trump, RFK's anti-war stances discussed: Influence on NATO territories like Afghanistan and Ukraine, personal meetings recounted. Predictions of economic depression by 2032: Discussions on debt defaults, interconnected economies, and career politicians' concerns. Guest Links:Website: http://armstrongeconomics.comTwitter: https://x.com/strongeconomicsFacebook: https://facebook.com/martin.armstrong.167Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/ybtrslr9 Martin Armstrong is the Owner and Researcher for the website Armstrong Economics. He is the former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed. At age 13, Armstrong began working at a coin and stamp dealership in Pennsauken, New Jersey. After buying a bag of rare Canadian pennies, he became a millionaire in 1965 at the age of 15. He continued to work on weekends through high school, finding the real-world exciting, for this was the beginning of the collapse of the gold standard. Martin became captivated by this shocking revelation that there were not just booms and busts, but also peaks and valleys that would last centuries. Armstrong progressed from gold coin investments to following commodity prices for precious metals. In 1973, he began publishing commodity market predictions as a hobby, and in 1983 Armstrong began accepting paid subscriptions for a forecast newsletter. "In Armstrong's view of the world where boom-bust cycles occur like clockwork every 8.6 years, what matters is his record as a forecaster. He called Russia's financial collapse in 1998, using a model that also pointed to a peak just before the Japanese stock market crashed in 1989. These days, as the European sovereign-debt crisis roils markets worldwide,

Tom welcomes back Christopher Grove to the show. Chrisopher is President and Director of Commerce Resources and an expert on the rare earth element market. Despite China's lack of direct involvement in the export halt of germanium, gallium, and antimony to the U.S., it underscores Beijing's dominance in the sector. With the surge in demand for rare earth elements due to technology advancements, particularly permanent magnets for electric vehicles, no new significant producers have emerged since 2011-2012. Prices have reverted to levels last seen then as a result. China's manipulation of input feedstock prices has caused unease and encouraged nations to seek alternative rare earth element sources The US Department of Defense is investing in vertically integrated supply chains, as shown by the Defense Industrial Base Consortium and the Global Partnership Initiative. China's market dominance remains a concern but presents an opportunity for countries to invest in creating alternative sources. Chris discusses the challenges he faced as CEO of Commerce Resources, including high Canadian mining regulations and the repeal of the uptick rule on the Toronto Stock Exchange. This rule change has led to significant losses for resource companies when they release positive news. Grove plans to list Commerce Resources on the Australian stock exchange in late Q1 or early Q2 of 2025 as a potential solution to address this challenge. The discussion discusses the complexities and challenges of mining in Canada and importance of advocacy efforts to relevant government bodies. Commerce Resources is completing an updated preliminary economic assessment for its Ashram project and awaiting responses from grant opportunities in Canada and the United States. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:47 - Rare Earths & China8:15 - China & Processing11:33 - Western Deregulation?15:50 - Substitution18:59 - Recycling?19:57 - Adapting to China21:34 - Biggest Deposits?25:45 - Personal Challenges29:21 - Miners & Shorting34:52 - Canadian Challenges38:15 - Commerce Resources41:33 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode China's dominance in rare earth elements poses challenges but also opportunities. No significant new rare earth producers have emerged since 2011-2012. US Defense Department investing in vertical supply chains to reduce dependence on China. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/commercerescceWebsite: https://commerceresources.com/ Mr. Christopher Grove is President and Director of Commerce Resources since September 2014. Previously, he worked as Corporate Communications for Commerce since 2004 and has significant contacts within the financial communities in North America and Europe. Mr. Grove joined the Commerce Resource board in 2012 and has been active in representing the company abroad.

Tom Bodrovics engages in a discussion with Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, former Fed Insider, and author of the book "Fed Up." Danielle stresses the importance of monitoring private sector actions, particularly in 2025 due to recent job losses and the significance of shelter inflation's impact on the Federal Reserve. She highlights an upward trend in unemployment rates and potential recession expectations, but does not believe one is necessary. The conversation touches upon central bankers' confidence bubble and its implications for the current economic climate. They also delve into commercial real estate markets and the potential repercussions on banks and markets. Serious concerns in this sector have led to double defaults on commercial mortgage-backed securities, with regulators putting pressure on credit rating agencies not to downgrade them. Tom also inquires about other financial burdens, such as rising unemployment, falling house prices, and mortgage delinquencies, which contribute to significant household financial pressures. Canadian banks have announced larger losses but maintain they are contained. Banks attempt to slow charge-offs by modifying loans and extending terms, but this approach has limitations due to the possibility of re-default. Danielle concludes the conversation by encouraging listeners to maturely face sacrifices and embrace long-term benefits that come with cutting government waste. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:44 - The Economy & Stats2:49 - Unemployment & Layoffs3:38 - Powell & Trump4:37 - Revisions & Recession6:25 - Bankruptcies & Rates8:13 - C.B. Confidence/Hubris11:22 - Dollar Strength & Trump14:57 - Inflation Thoughts16:47 - Housing Confidence19:38 - Commercial Real Estate20:57 - Consumers & Banking22:37 - Safe Assets & Dividends24:14 - Buy Now Pay Later?26:42 - 2025 and Gov't Spending27:49 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Danielle emphasizes investors monitor private sector actions amid job losses, shelter inflation, and potential recession concerns. Concerns center around Central bankers' 'confidence', commercial real estate risks, and household financial pressures. DiMartino cautions listeners that Trump cuts may require short to medium term sacrifices to gain long-term benefits. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBoothSubstack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/Website: https://quillintelligence.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI Danielle DiMartino Booth is CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC, a research and analytics firm. DiMartino Booth set out to launch a #ResearchRevolution, redefining how market intelligence is conceived and delivered, with the goal of not only guiding portfolio managers but promoting financial literacy. To build QI, she brought together a core team of investing veterans in analyzing the trends and providing critical analysis of what drives the markets. Since its inception, commentary and data from DiMartino Booth's The Daily Feather have appeared in other financial sources such as Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox Business, Institutional Investor, Yahoo Finance, The Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, TD Ameritrade, TheStreet.com, and more. A global thought leader on monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded Quill Intelligence in 2018. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a full-time columnist for Bloomberg View, a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets. Before Quill, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, serving as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in 2015.

Tom welcomes back Tim Price from Price Value Partners, to discuss the happenings on the other side of the pond. Price shares concerns over Europe's chaos, comparing it unfavorably to the US under Trump, who he sees as reducing 'woke culture' and neo-Marxist economic policies. He criticizes the media for losing credibility due to untruths and emphasizes the importance of understanding debt economics. Price reflects on his experiences during the exchange rate mechanism crisis and shares skepticism towards state planning, believing it has historically failed. Tim also covers the potential swing from left to right in politics and corruption issues, with Trump's election seen as a possible catalyst for change. Additionally, gold or non-fiat money is suggested as an alternative to the corrupted monetary system. Price calls for individual empowerment and market efficiencies, criticizes central banks, and advocates for real assets and value investing. He discusses potential implications of Bitcoin reaching new heights and Tether's role in it. Throughout the interview, Tim Price encourages listeners to consider traditional investments like gold and silver, often overlooked despite their attractive valuations compared to the stock market. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:39 - State of Europe2:48 - Trump & Pendulum Swings7:54 - Trends & Growing Debt10:17 - Bond Mkt Predictions15:50 - Endemic Issues20:23 - Milei & Trump22:04 - Global Cuts & Change23:00 - Fixing Corrupt Money26:55 - The Invisible Hand?31:34 - 40-Year Rate Regime37:30 - Too Early & Wrong44:53 - Silvers Potential48:04 - Finding Cheap Assets50:00 - Bitcoin 100k50:55 - Dollar Strength?55:42 - Time & Cheap Assets59:43 - Miners Underperformance1:02:17 - Contraian-isms1:03:07 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Europe's chaos contrasted unfavorably to US under Trump, with concerns over 'woke culture' and neo-Marxist economic policies. Media narratives criticized for losing credibility due to untruths, stressing importance of understanding debt economics in politics. Skepticism towards state planning historically, individual empowerment, real assets, value investing promoted. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/TimPrice1969Website: https://www.pricevaluepartners.com/War On Cash: https://www.pricevaluepartners.com/war-on-cash/Articles: https://www.pricevaluepartners.com/commentaryTim's Podcast: State of the Markets BooksTim's Book (Amazon): https://www.amazon.ca/Investing-Through-Looking-Glass-Irrational/dp/0857195360 Book Recommendations:180 Degrees (Amazon): http://tinyurl.com/3vjvpnud Tim Price has worked in the capital markets for over 30 years. A graduate of Christ Church, Oxford, he spent a decade as a bond specialist before going on to serve as Chief Investment Officer at three separate wealth management firms. Tim has been shortlisted for five successive years in the UK Private Asset Managers Awards program and was a winner in 2005 in the category of Defensive Investing. He is now co-manager of the VT Price Value Portfolio, a fund investing in Benjamin Graham-style value stocks, and specialist value funds, from around the world. He also co-manages bespoke private client portfolios. Tim writes for MoneyWeek Magazine and The Spectator, and his weekly commentaries are freely available at the Price Value Partners website.

Tom Bodrovics, welcomes back David Morgan, founder of The Morgan Report, for a discussion centered around their respective recent interviews with Dr. Judy Shelton. They highlight her advocacy for the moral obligation of money and her belief in an honest monetary system that fosters freedom and stability. Morgan believes these views align with his life's work. The conversation touches upon potential solutions for imposing monetary discipline on the government, including the idea of long-term gold bonds and a bimetallic standard consisting of both gold and silver. The benefits of a bimetallic system include regulation of inflation, but its practicality is questioned due to the current market values of gold and silver. Morgan also discusses the role of the Federal Reserve in the US monetary system, suggesting that commercial banks create most of the money through loans and advocating for the Treasury to manage monetary policy according to the Constitution. He expresses skepticism towards Central Bank Digital Currencies due to concerns over privacy and potential loss of control by individuals. David Morgan shares his long-term perspective on investing in silver, emphasizing its importance as a form of financial security and potential return to being a monetary asset. He also discusses the industrial uses of platinum and palladium and expresses his bullish sentiment towards these metals. In conclusion, Morgan advocates for self-reliance, fundamental human values, and focuses on the human spirit despite skepticism towards politics. David Morgan is working on a documentary called "Silver Sunrise" that explores the monetary system, stress, fear, and control related to money, featuring interviews from renowned figures like G. Edwin Griffin, Ron Paul, Ellen Brown, and Mark Passio, set for release early next year. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:30 - Dr. Judy Shelton6:47 - Silver Standard?10:07 - Fed's Role & Ron Paul13:48 - CBDC Concerns16:35 - Trumps Cabinet Picks22:54 - Silver Expectations25:48 - China, Russia, & India29:06 - Platinum & Palladium31:07 - Sentiment in Metals33:42 - Silver Sunrise Documentary38:15 - Holiday Wrap Up Guest Links:Website: https://silver-investor.com/Twitter: https://x.com/silverguru22YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/silverguruDocumentary: https://silversunrise.tv David is a precious metals enthusiast with degrees in finance and engineering, and he originated The Morgan Report. This monthly report covers economic news, the global economy, and substantial capital gains by investing in the Resource Sector. The Model Portfolio includes top-tier, mid-tier, speculative, and special situations. David considers himself a big-picture macroeconomist whose main job is educating people about honest money and the benefits of a sound financial system. A dynamic, much-in-demand speaker worldwide, he has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business, and BNN in Canada. He has interviewed- The Wall Street Journal, Futures Magazine, Investing Rules, and numerous other publications. As publisher of The Morgan Report, he has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business, and BNN in Canada. He has been interviewed by The Wall Street Journal, Futures Magazine, The Gold Report, and numerous other publications.

Tom welcomes back Lawrence Lepard from Equity Management Associates to discuss the current economic macro picture, including rising inflation and potential economic depression despite subdued market crashes. Lepard expresses skepticism towards government statistics suggesting a lack of real growth since 2008 and warns of risks for investors holding traditional assets due to high stock valuations caused by the Federal Reserve's policies like zero interest rates and quantitative easing. The conversation then shifts into the importance of liquidity in driving the stock market and the potential implications for the bond market and US federal government spending. Lepard expresses concern about a potential debt doom loop as rising interest rates could result in yield curve control, leading to inflation. They also discuss Trump's economic policies and the potential impact on the U.S. dollar. They further debate the current state of inflation and its future developments, with Lepard predicting another wave due to increased government spending. Larry discusses the underperformance of miners in both gold and Bitcoin markets and the shift towards gold as a reserve currency due to mistrust in the US dollar's stability. Lastly, Lawrence discusses his upcoming book on monetary issues and the importance of sound money. Time Stamp Reference0:00 - Introduction0:38 - Inflation Metrics2:25 - Equity Valuations?9:00 - Capital Concentration12:08 - Excessive Liquidity16:19 - Bond Markets & Deficits22:16 - Cutbacks & Obligations24:24 - Trump & Lower Dollar31:10 - Inflation & Fed Q.E.34:28 - Next Rate Print?36:30 - Bitcoin & Tether39:54 - Trump's Goals & Caveats42:39 - Miners Underperformance52:45 - China's Gold Demands56:21 - Silver Supply Picture59:38 - Commodities & Value1:02:48 - Feb. Book & Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Lawrence voices skepticism towards official growth figures since 2008, warning of risks for traditional asset holders due to high valuations from Federal Reserve policies. He also expresses concern over potential debt doom loop from rising interest rates and yield curve control, which could lead to inflation. The importance of liquidity in driving stock markets, with a shift towards gold as a reserve currency due to mistrust in US dollar's stability. Guest Links:Newsletter: http://eepurl.com/gOf1dTWebsite: http://www.ema2.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/LawrenceLepard Lawrence W. Lepard is the Founder and Managing Partner of Equity Management Associates. He has spent his entire 38-year career as an investor, principally focusing on venture capital opportunities. Before co-founding EMA, Mr. Lepard spent 13 years at Geocapital Partners, in Fort Lee, NJ. There he was one of two Managing General Partners and was responsible for several venture capital funds. Before Geocapital, Mr. Lepard spent seven years at Summit Partners in Boston and California, where he was a General Partner at Summit I and Summit II. Mr. Lepard received his BA in Economics from Colgate University, and he received an MBA with Academic Distinction from Harvard Business School.

Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Doomberg, author of the Doomberg Substack, for a discussion on the election cycle and the ever expanding geopolitical instability. They discuss the geopolitical implications of the U.S. election, focusing on potential consequences in macroeconomics, energy policy, and peace. Doomberg voices concerns about escalating tensions between the U.S. and Russia during the new administration's transition period, particularly over Ukraine and Syria. Doomberg also explores Chris Wright's appointment as Energy Secretary under Trump, with enthusiasm for Wright's experience, patriotism, and pro-human energy stance. Our green friend also discusses potential ramifications of the 'drill, baby drill' policy, such as increased energy production, economic growth, lower prices for consumers, and challenges for certain energy companies. Doomberg emphasizes speaking up against narratives, particularly those related to climate change and carbon emissions, expressing optimism about a potential shift back to the center or right. He discusses Trump's tariff threats towards countries abandoning the use of the US dollar and Putin's actions in creating dollar alternatives. The uncertain prospects for peace on the Ukraine front are discussed, with doubt about Trump's ability to negotiate a ceasefire and concerns around military solutions instead. He also touches upon Elon Musk and Vivek's roles in the upcoming administration. The current state of gold mining companies and their undervalued status in the market are discussed, along with the importance of primary energy and artificial intelligence to the U.S. Doomberg concludes by advising listeners to closely monitor political developments both foreign and domestic. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:52 - Tipping Points & Elections5:14 - Unsettling Geopolitics9:53 - Trump Appointments13:03 - Drill Baby Drill18:30 - Trumps Energy Strategy21:09 - Climate/Energy Narratives26:16 - Tariffs, BRICS, & Dollar33:08 - Peace & Ukraine?36:38 - Middle East & Syria?37:41 - DOGE Puzzlement41:15 - Panic in the Swamp42:44 - Markets & the Election45:26 - Gold Fundamentals?47:20 - Miners & Energy Services49:33 - U.S. Energy and A.I.52:17 - The Dollar & Trump?55:06 - (Geo)Political Concerns56:53 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Discussion on election implications, focusing on macroeconomics, energy policy, and peace. Guest voices concerns over U.S.-Russia tensions. Trump's Energy Secretary appointment, potential consequences of 'drill, baby drill' policy, and climate change narratives. Peace prospects in Ukraine, Middle East, Elon Musk & Vivek roles, gold mining companies, and U.S. dollar threats. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/DoombergTWebsite: https://doomberg.substack.com Doomberg is the anonymous publishing arm of a bespoke consulting firm providing advisory services to family offices and c-suite executives. Its principals apply their decades of experience across heavy industry, private equity, and finance to deliver innovative thinking and clarity to complex problems.

Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Kevin Muir, the author of the Macro Tourist Newsletter and Substack, and co-host of The Market Huddle. Muir discusses market dynamics since the election, emphasizing that volatility has returned due to Trump's unpredictable tweets and policies, particularly regarding tariffs and trade deficits. He argues for acknowledging these shifts rather than denying them. Muir explains how reducing the US trade deficit could lead to devaluation of US stocks. He attributes globalization over the past two decades to an increase in global profits, but suggests that Trump's efforts to reverse this trend and bring jobs back to the U.S. might result in higher labor costs and less capital flowing into the U.S. financial markets, potentially leading to lower stock prices for the US market compared to others. Muir criticizes passive flows as the primary cause of high stock valuations and expresses skepticism about certain high-growth companies trading at such high valuations indefinitely. He also discusses potential implications if Trump successfully eliminates the US trade deficit. Furthermore, Muir shares his belief that Trump could potentially lead to a weak dollar due to tariffs, devaluation of the dollar, and lower interest rates. He expresses uncertainty about Trump's intentions regarding monetary policy and the Federal Reserve, noting potential opposition. Muir favors investing in resource stocks of Canadian companies and financial assets due to economic challenges faced by future leaders in Canada. He also criticizes President Trump's deregulation efforts and tax cuts, expressing concern over potential inflation or recession depending on public reaction and private sector credit creation. Muir emphasizes the importance of considering gold trading from a long-term strategic perspective with the People's Bank of China (PBOC) being the most important player due to their vast US dollar reserves and increasing diversification into gold for safety reasons. He advises traders to adopt a similar approach and not be swayed by short-term market fluctuations or technical analysis. Gold may ultimately be chased at the end of the accumulation process, according to Muir. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction2:03 - Volatility & Election8:16 - Trade Deficits & Equities13:50 - Valuation Drivers22:29 - Rates & the Dollar30:24 - The Fed Vs. Trump36:17 - Recession Forecasts?37:42 - Japanese Yen40:23 - The Canadian Loonies50:12 - Managing Expectations57:04 - Change & Openmindedness1:00:41 - China's Gold Reserves1:06:10 - Golden Fundamentals1:11:00 - Outlook For Miners1:15:04 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Volatility back in markets due to Trump's unpredictable policies on tariffs and trade deficits. Reducing the US trade deficit could lead to devaluation in US equities. Trump's actions might result in a weak dollar, lower interest rates, and potential monetary policy opposition from the Federal Reserve. Guest Links:Email for Sample Letters: [email protected]: https://posts.themacrotourist.comWebsite: https://themacrotourist.comPodcast: https://markethuddle.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/kevinmuir Kevin Muir started as an institutional equity derivative trader for a big Canadian bank in the 1990s. In 2000, Kevin decided that bank-life wasn't for him, so he traded his own account for the next two decades. Along the way, he started writing the MacroTourist newsletter, which he describes as an "almost daily" letter about the markets that still manages to have fun. The MacroTourist newsletter attempts to bring a unique take on a variety of different financial topics. Kevin's tagline is, "All I Bring to the Party is 25 Years of Mistakes." Kevin Muir is a CFA and a graduate of the University of Toronto economics program.