Prediction is Hard, Especially about Confidence Levels

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the confidence problem among national security experts. As Jeffrey Friedman shows in a recent Texas National Security Review article, experts are often right but almost always overconfident in their predictions. What does this mean for the national security community? And how can experts address this systemic problem? Chris laments the Pentagon’s in-person gathering of military leaders and Melanie condemns misguided economic policymaking, while Zack commends President Trump’s support for a tougher NATO response to Russian incursions. Links: Jeffrey Friedman, “The World Is More Uncertain Than You Think: Assessing and Combating Overconfidence Among 2,000 National Security Officials,” Texas National Security Review, Fall 2025. “Ask The Experts,” Foreign Affairs. Philip E. Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, Princeton University Press, 2017. Drew FitzGerald and Lara Seligman, “Pentagon Pushes to Double Missile Production for Potential China Conflict,” Wall Street Journal, September 29, 2025. Derek Scissors and Zack Cooper, “Is Trump Capitulating to China,” AEIdeas, September 25, 2025. Zack Cooper, “Rethinking the Rebalance,” IDSS Paper, September 5, 2025. Sam Rosenfeld and Matthew Yglesias, “The Incompetence Dodge,” American Prospect, October 23, 2005. Tara Copp, Dan Lamothe, Noah Robertson and Alex Horton, “Trump to attend gathering of top generals, upending last-minute plans,” Washington Post, September 28, 2025. Adam Goldstein, “Why our critics’ whataboutery over Jimmy Kimmel is wrong,” FIRE, September 22, 2025. Tom Karako, A Marie Kondo Moment for MTCR: Tidying Up the US Approach to Missile Proliferation, CSIS, September 23, 2025.  Elisabeth Buchwald, "Trump Vows to Enact 'Substantial' Tariffs on Imported Furniture," CNN, September 29, 2025.   

Chris, Zack, and Melanie take some time to talk about how the United States, Europe, and Russia are dealing with the Ukraine conflict. Would a Russian win in a war which is costing billions of dollars, killing hundreds of thousands of Russians, and reinforcing Moscow's junior partner status to China only be a pyrrhic victory? Does Russia hold a winning hand because it seems to be willing to take on greater risk than Europe and the United States? Was the passive American reaction to the Russian drone incursion into Poland a sign that the US is done providing security commitments to Europe? Have European governments reached a consensus on whether a sovereign Ukraine is worth a military fight with Russia? Chris is impressed with how Utah Governor Spencer Cox has handled the complex politics following the murder of Charlie Kirk, Zack has an atta for a colleague’s Golden Dome cost calculator, and Melanie is disappointed that the West Point Association of Graduates has cancelled an event at which Tom Hanks was to be awarded the Sylvanus Thayer Award for his longtime dedication to promoting stories of American heroism and innovation and elevating the stories of American veterans. Show Links: Robert Kagan, “The Beginning of the End of NATO,” The Atlantic, September 10, 2025. Franz-Stefan Gady, “The Russia-Ukraine War: Europe’s Delusions over Deterring Russia,” September 10, 2025. Jeremy Shapiro, “Russia is Losing the War—Just Not to Ukraine,” The Atlantic, September 10, 2025. Alexandra E. Petri, “West Point Alumni Group Cancels Award Honoring Tom Hanks,” New York Times, September 7, 2025. Mike Stone, “Trump to Reinterpret 1987 Missile Treaty to Sell Heavy Attack Drones Abroad,” Reuters, September 6, 2025. Charlie Edwards and Nate S, “The Scale of Russian Sabotage Operations Against Europe’s Critical Infrastructure,” IISS, August 19, 2025.  “Heroes and villains: Russia braces for eventual return of its enormous army,” Reuters, September 9, 2025. Joshua Rovner, Strategy and Grand Strategy, The Adelphi Series, International Institute for Strategic Studies, January 2025. McKay Coppins, “Trump Has a Warning for Spencer Cox,” The Atlantic, September 13, 2025. Todd Harrison, “Build Your Own Golden Dome: A Framework for Understanding Costs, Choices, and Tradeoffs,” American Enterprise Institute, September 12, 2025. US Policy Update on the Export of Unmanned Aerial Systems, State Department, September 15, 2025. 

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman’s new article “The Weaponized World Economy.” Is the United States, which has been accused of weaponizing the global economy now getting a taste of its own medicine? Should America try to rebuild its economic security state for a world in which adversaries and allies can also employ economic coercion against us? And what are the key risks or challenges that the U.S. government will face if it goes down this path? Grievances for using the National Guard to pick up trash; to President Trump for toying with the idea of running for a third term; and to the Trump administration for botching the relationship with India. Attas to America’s workers on Labor Day – including the millions who came here from outside of the United States; to Marco Rubio and Steve Witkoff for their performance in the last Cabinet meeting; and to a German firm, Luxcara’s, decision to drop Chinese technology in a new windfarm. Show Links: Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman, “The Weaponized World Economy,” Foreign Affairs, September/October 2025. Tara Copp, “National Guard troops deployed in D.C. add sanitation, landscaping duties,” The Washington Post, August 27, 2025. Paul Kiernan, “How a Historic Immigration Drop Is Changing the Job Market,” Wall Street Journal, August 24, 2025. “New Visions for Grand Strategy”  Marco Rubio, “New Visa Policies Put America First, Not China,” US State Department, May 28, 2025. Greg Ip, “The US Marches Toward State Capitalism with American Characteristics,” Wall Street Journal, August, 11, 2025. Jonah Goldberg, “The Donald Always Gets His Slice,” The Dispatch, August 27, 2025. Howard Lutnik on The Ingraham Angle, X post, August 25, 2025. Petra Sorge, “German Wind Farm to Drop China Turbine Order After Backlash,” Bloomberg, August 25, 2025. Noah Barkin, LinkedIn post, August 27, 2025.   Jason Ma, “Rural America is Suffering an Economic Crisis as Crop Prices Plunge — ‘US Soybean Farmers Cannot Survive a Prolonged Trade Dispute,’” MSN.com, August 30, 2025. Stimson event on September 17th, New Visions for Grand Strategy. Support Stimson, https://www.stimson.org/support/. 

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Jennifer Lind and Daryl Press’s recent article on strategies of prioritization. They examine the challenges of executing such a strategy and debate whether the Trump administration is actually implementing this approach in practice. Chris commends Emma Ashford for her forthcoming book on multipolarity, Melanie laments attacks on Medal of Honor recipient Florent Groberg, and Zack critiques the Trump administration’s efforts to collect export taxes. Show Links: Jennifer Lind and Daryl G. Press, “Strategies of Prioritization: American Foreign Policy After Primacy,” Foreign Affairs, June 24, 2025 Jasper Ward, “Trump says Xi told him China will not invade Taiwan while he is US president,” Reuters, August 16, 2025 Ilya Somin, “Trump’s Unconstitutional Export Tax Is Probably Here to Stay,” The Bulwark, August 15, 2025 Laura Loomer, X post, August 8, 2025 Florent Groberg, X post, August 8, 2025 Medal of Honor citation for Florent Groberg Ione Wells, “Bolivia Set to Elect First Non-Left-Wing President in Two Decades,” BBC, August 18, 2025 Emma Ashford, First Among Equals: U.S. Foreign Policy in a Multipolar World (Yale University Press, 2025) The 100 Best Movies of the 21st Century, New York Times Support Stimson, https://www.stimson.org/support/  

Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to chat about the recently-released White House AI Action Plan. Should American AI policy be in pursuit of unchallenged dominance in the field? What kinds of investments and policy choices should the US government be making in order to accelerate AI innovation and deployment? Can the United States become one-stop-shopping for full-stack AI for our friends, in order to counter Chinese supremacy? Do Trump administration policies of the last six months contribute to us achieving our AI goals? Chris is unhappy with the firing of Bureau of Labor Statistics Commission Erika McEntarfer, Zack compliments the CCP on getting the Trump administration to capitulate on its trade agenda, and Melanie calls out Senator Josh Hawley for his proposal to give $600 tariff rebate checks when the Trump tariffs are being advertised as a way to bring down the national debt. Show Links: The White House, “Winning the Race: America’s AI Action Plan,” July 2025. Editorial Board, “Trump’s AI Action Plan is a Good Start—but Only a Start,” Washington Post, July 27, 2025. Raffaele Huang and Liza Lin, “How China is Girding for an AI Battle With the US,” Wall Street Journal, July 30, 2025.  Mehdi Alhassani and Anthony Bak, “America is Winning the Wrong AI Race,” Wall Street Journal, May 16, 2025.  Aaron MacLean, “A Warning to the Young: Just Say No to AI,” Engelsberg Ideas, July 9, 2025. Jeffrey Ding, “The Innovation Fallacy: In the US-Chinese Tech Race, Diffusion Matters More than Invention,” Foreign Affairs, August 19, 2024. “Hawley Introduces Legislation to Send Rebate Checks to Working Americans,” July 28, 2025.  Nevada Joan Lee and Christopher Preble, “The Quiet Demise of the Rio Treaty,” Stimson Center, August 1, 2025. Christopher Preble, “80 Years with the Bomb: The Nuclear Age in Four Moments,” Stimson Center, July 31, 2025. The Editorial Board, “The Bureau of Labor Denial,” Wall Street Journal, August 3, 2024. Spencer Jakab, “Trump vs. the Bureau of Labor Statistics: Why This Firing Could Burn Your Finances,” Wall Street Journal, August 4, 2025. Power Problems, https://www.cato.org/search/category/multimedia+power-problems Blue Blaze, https://blueblaze.substack.com/. Support Stimson, https://www.stimson.org/support/. 

In this show, Chris, Melanie, and Zack consider the different military options being considered to combat Mexican drug cartels. Are the cartels that manufacture and distribute drugs that kill Americans, particularly fentanyl, a threat to US national security? If so, is military action, with or without the approval of the Mexican government, a viable solution? And if a military operation isn’t a great idea, are there other ways to stop the tens of thousands of fentanyl and other drug-related deaths that occur in the United States every year? Melanie remembers Andrew Schwartz, a force of nature at CSIS who passed away earlier this month. The crew has shout outs for Ukraine’s drone manufacturers and researchers Jessica Batke and Laura Edelson on “The Locknet,” regarding China’s control of the Internet. Grievances for the Trump administration’s handling of staff cuts at the State Department, and for strong-arming allies regarding a hypothetical conflict with China over Taiwan.   Show Links: Dan DePetris and Chris McCallion, “No GWOT-NARCO: The Perils of Making War on Cartels,” Defense Priorities, July 2, 2025 Simon Shuster, “The Hidden War Over Ukraine’s Lost Children,” Time, July 17, 2025 Caitlin Doombos, Ronny Reyes, “Trump Discussing Drone ‘Mega Deal’ with Ukraine—As US Tech Lags Behind Adversaries,” New York Post, July 17, 2025 Neal Urwitz, “Andrew Schwartz Must be Remembered,” National Security Journal, July 18, 2025  Christopher Preble, “A Credible Grand Strategy: The Urgent Need to Set Priorities,” Stimson Center, January 25, 2024 Demetri Sevastopulo, “US demands to know what allies would do in event of war over Taiwan,” Financial Times, July 12, 2025 Jessica Batke and Laura Edelson, “The Locknet: How China Controls Its Internet and Why It Matters,” ChinaFile, June 30, 2025 Support Net Assessment at https://www.stimson.org/support/

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the “nuclear hurricane” sweeping the world. They begin by returning to the question of whether President Trump made the right decision to conduct strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Then they shift to discussing Vipin Narang and Pranay Vaddi’s recent article “How to Survive the New Nuclear Age.” Should American leaders adopt a new nuclear strategy or adjust existing nuclear policies and capabilities? Chris endorses the Trump administration’s rethinking of certain types of aid to Ukraine, Melanie applauds General Dan Caine’s handling of a delicate political situation, and Zack commends Congressman Don Bacon for his leadership. Show Links: Vipin Narang and Pranay Vaddi, “How to Survive the New Nuclear Age: National Security in a World of Proliferating Risks and Eroding Constraints,” Foreign Affairs, July/August 2025. James Acton, “Optimal Deterrence: How the United States Can Preserve Peace and Prevent a Nuclear Arms Race with China and Russia,” Council on Foreign Relations, June 2025. Ankit Panda, Vipin Narang, and Pranay Vaddi, “Nuclear Proliferation Will Haunt ‘America First,’” War on the Rocks, March 10, 2025. “80 Years of Nuclear Weapons with Chris Preble,” Global Santa Fe, Wednesday, July 16, 5 pm. Geoff Wilson, Christopher Preble, Lucas Ruiz, “Gambling on Armageddon: How U.S. Nuclear Policies Are Undercutting Deterrence and Lowering the Threshold for Nuclear War,” Stimson Center, February 19, 2025. Christopher Preble, “The Influence of History on Nuclear Weapons,” Review of Nuclear Statecraft: History and Strategy in America’s Atomic Age by Francis J. Gavin, International Studies Review, March 2014. Jack Goldsmith, “An Authority to License Illegal Conduct,” Executive Functions Substack, July 3, 2025. Gen. Dan Caine, press conference, June 26, 2025.  Annie Karni, “Breaking with Trump, Bacon Says He Won’t Follow His Party ‘Off the Cliff,’” New York Times, June 8, 2025. Supporting Stimson, https://www.stimson.org/support/.

Chris, Zack, and Melanie get together to discuss the very rapidly moving events in the Middle East following the execution of Operation Midnight Hammer. Why did President Trump decide to move from negotiating with Iran to ordering the strikes on the country’s nuclear facilities? Is this a case of alliance entrapment, or is it an example of an “America First” foreign policy? Is this the beginning of another long slog for America in the Middle East? Even though he has Republican majorities in the House and Senate, President Trump did not seek congressional authorization for the mission. Was he constitutionally required to do so? What are the most likely near- and medium-term outcomes of the American and Israeli strikes? There are grievances for Democrats who didn’t object to the unauthorized exercise of war powers by Presidents Obama and Biden but are suddenly relocating their constitutional scruples with a Republican now at the helm, a video message on nuclear weapons by DNI Tulsi Gabbard that may serve to undermine US extended deterrence, and the increasing violence against government officials and lack of security for them. Attas go to the Institute for Global Affairs for new analysis of several countries’ perceptions of national security threats and priorities, to the United States Armed Forces for the brilliantly executed Operation Midnight Hammer, and to the United States Studies Centre for a fantastic workshop on integrated air and missile defense.  Show Links:                                                                      “Video: Kaine Speaks on Senate Floor Regarding His War Powers Resolution to Prevent War with Iran,” June 17, 2025 Eloise Cassier, Jonathan Guyer, Lucas Robinson, Ransom Miller, “2025 International Public Opinion Survey," Institute for Global Affairs, June 12, 2052                                                                                                                                       Evan Cooper, Christopher Preble, Alessandro Perri, “Restraint Towards Iran Serves US Interests,” Stimson Center, June 18, 2025 Alice Hunt Friend, Melanie Marlowe, Christopher Preble, “Debating the AUMFs,” Net Assessment, February 6, 2020 Patrick Kingsley, Adam Rasgon, Ronen Bergman, Natan Odenheimer, Julian E. Barnes, “Will Israel’s Interceptors Outlast Iran’s Missiles? The Answer May Shape the War,” New York Times, June 19, 2025. Jonathan Swan, Maggie Haberman, Mark Mazzetti, Ronen Bergman, “How Trump Shifted on Iran Under Pressure from Israel,” New York Times, June 17, 2025. Darya Dolzikova and Matthew Savill, “Operation Rising Lion: The First 72 Hours,” Royal United Services Institute, June 16, 2025. Joint Resolution to direct the removal of United States Armed Forces from hostilities against the Islamic Republic of Iran that have not been authorized by Congress, June 2025. Support Net Assessment at Stimson, https://www.stimson.org/support/

Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the recent short war between India and Pakistan. Christopher Clary’s first cut of history provides a careful reconstruction of the key events, made all the more difficult by misinformation and disinformation on both sides. But did either side “win”? What role, if any, did Trump administration officials play in negotiating the ceasefire, and what does their involvement portend for the future? How did new technology shape each side’s behavior in that conflict? And are crises between the two countries likely to escalate in severity in the coming years, or can they reach some accommodation? Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth earns a grievance for gutting the Pentagon’s operational testing office, but an atta for his strong performance at the Shangri-La Dialogue defense summit in Singapore. Attas to the Ukrainians for the audacious drone attack deep inside of Russia, to President Trump for repealing the supersonic air travel ban, and to the newly elected South Korean President Lee Jae-Myung. Grievances for the abysmal state of servicemembers’ housing, and to the Trump administration’s crackdown on foreign students wishing to attend U.S. universities. Show Links:   Christopher Clary, “Four Days in May: The India-Pakistan Crisis of 2025,” Stimson Center, May 28, 2025 https://www.stimson.org/2025/four-days-in-may-the-india-pakistan-crisis-of-2025/ Asfandyar Mir, “India and Pakistan Enter a More Dangerous Era,” New York Times, May 9, 2025 https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/09/opinion/india-and-pakistan-enter-a-more-dangerous-era.html  “Five Key Concepts to Understand the India-Pakistan Crisis,” May 19, 2025, Stimson Center https://www.stimson.org/2025/five-key-concepts-to-understand-the-india-pakistan-crisis/  Supporting Stimson: https://www.stimson.org/support/ Dan Grazier, “Gutting military testing office may be the deadliest move yet,” Responsible Statecraft, June 4, 2025 https://responsiblestatecraft.org/dod-testing-cuts/ Choe Sang-Hun, “He Survived a Knife to the Neck. Now He’ll Lead a Divided South Korea,” New York Times, June 3, 2025 https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/03/world/asia/lee-south-korea-new-president.html Donald Trump, post, Truth Social, April 22, 2025. Donald Trump, post, Truth Social, May 10, 2025. Executive Order, “Leading the World in Supersonic Flight,” White House, June 6, 2025. Sudhi, Ranjan Sen, Faseeh Mangi, Dan Strumpf, and Akyla Gardner, “Trump Truce Leaves India Furious, Pakistan Elated as Risks Loom,” Bloomberg, May 11, 2025. Diaa Hadid and Omkar Khandekar, “Vice President Vance Says India-Pakistan Fighting is ‘None of Our Business,’” National Public Radio, May 10, 2025. Timothy A. Walton and Thomas H. Shugart, Concrete Sky: Air Base Hardening in the Western Pacific, Hudson Institute, January 7, 2025. Rene Kladzyk, “Navy Secretary ‘Appalled’ by Barracks Conditions in Guam,” Project on Government Oversight, May 29, 2025. 

Is President Trump’s approach to foreign policy best described as a spheres of influence approach in which the major players are the United States, China, and Russia? Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate Stacie Goddard’s recent article outlining this idea and assess the implications for Europe, Asia, and North America. Chris expresses frustration with a new brand of American corruption, Melanie highlights China’s acquisition of land near Itaewon, and Zack laments the restructuring of the National Security Council. Links: Stacie E. Goddard, “The Rise and Fall of Great-Power Competition,” Foreign Affairs, May/June 2025, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/rise-and-fall-great-power-competition. Monica Duffy Toft, “The Return of Spheres of Influence,” Foreign Affairs, March 13, 2025, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/return-spheres-influence. Edward Wong, “Trump’s Vision: One World, Three Powers?,” New York Times, May 26, 2025, https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/26/us/politics/trump-russia-china.html. Marc Caputo and Alex Isenstadt, “Scoop: Trump, Rubio take aim at National Security Council’s ‘Deep State’,” Axios, May 23, 2025, https://www.axios.com/2025/05/23/white-house-national-security-council-trump-rubio. Choe Sang-Hun, “North Korea Makes Arrests Over Failed Ship Launch That Angered Kim Jong-un,” New York Times, May 25, 2025, https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/25/world/asia/north-korea-ship-launch-arrests.html. Rebecca Ballhaus and Angus Berwick, “The Father Pursues Trump’s Diplomatic Deals. The Son Chases Crypto Deals,” Wall Street Journal, May 22, 2025, https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/trump-steve-zach-witkoff-crypto-6d8a96be Supporting Stimson • Stimson Center