StockTA's Steuer: Market's rally has it due for a pause, awaiting clarity

Kevin Steuer, managing partner at StockTA, says the stock market's rally after the initial peace talks over the War in Iran got a bit ahead of itself, and he's now expecting the market to hover — without facing much downside pressure — awaiting more resolution and clarity. He's heavily in cash at this point — the most cash he has held by percentage since the Covid crisis — and is looking at defensive, inflation-oriented plays while he waits for a signal that the rally is back on. David Gutierrez, vice president at Liberty Street Advisors — which runs the Private Shares Fund — says that private markets are similar enough to public markets that one of the big sweet spots now is artificial intelligence, though he is focused mostly on A.I. infrastructure noting, for example, that the shift from copper-based to optical-based networking in servers is an investable trend that does not depend on how well the AI works but instead is based entirely on the demand for more technology support. He also discusses shifting trends in how long private companies are waiting before going public, and how geopolitics could be impacting private firms. Plus, Noland Langford, chief executive officer at Left Brain Capital Management, brings his strategy of buying proven winners while they are still on the rise back to the Money Life Market Call.

John Silvia, chief executive officer at Dynamic Economic Strategy, says he expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady, leaving mortgage rates stuck at 6%-plus and in an environment with the 10-year Treasury rising slightly. Silvia points out that the central bank is not going to be frantic about 3% inflation and reducing it to the 2% target level, but he says that investors and retirees will suffer from that higher inflation, creating more of a retirement-savings struggle. Courtney Werning, principal at Meyer Wilson Werning and the 2027 president-elect for the Public Investors Advocate Bar Association, discusses how and why smart consumers and investors get caught up in scams and how artificial intelligence has raised fraud risks, particularly for seniors. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi , turns to Japan for his ETF of the Week, suggesting that it might be worth a portfolio tilt for someone looking to add foreign exposure to a portfolio. In the process, he discusses whether investors looking that way want to hedge the currency risk or play it straight.

Lance Cannon, portfolio manager at Hood River Capital Management, says in the Market Call that he is looking for transformational small companies that can benefit from changing trends in key industries, which has included artificial-intelligence stocks heavily as his funds produced stellar results in recent years. But Cannon says that looking for those companies means finding businesses that will not wind up on the wrong end of AI developments themselves, where a current flash will turn into a future crash. Allison Hadley, an analyst at Digital Third Coast, discusses research she did for Howdy.com looking at how consumers use — and whether they trust — artificial intelligence. Following up on David Trainer's Monday appearance in The Danger Zone — where he put all AI users in the Danger Zone because the quality of information they are using is questionable — Hadley noted that consumers are split, with a large cohort having a healthy distrust of the accuracy of the new technology, while another large group is willing to trust its answers blindly. Ray Shefska, co-founder of CarEdge, goes "Off The News," discussing the big expansion plans announced recently for the Amazon Autos program and how it will change — and potentially improve — the car-buying experience for consumers. While Amazon has been selling cars in a pilot program since 2024, the recent news marks an expansion into many more car brands now being available through the retailer.

Dana Samuelson, founder and president of American Gold Exchange, says gold investors shouldn't expect the rally in metals to resume at the pace it set last year — when gold was up over 60% — but he does believe that the fundamentals that were in place for that rally will drive gold back up once concerns over war and inflation are a little less prominent. He sees the metal hitting $6,000 in 12 to 18 months, and says he'd be buying in dips now. Thomas Raymond, founding partner at Callan Family Office, says he's staying patient while war gets resolved, because backstopping the economy and the markets are a $7 trillion mountain of cash that investors will want to put to work, and the continuing artificial-intelligence story that is creating an attractive place to invest it. Those forces should drive the market higher, overcoming inflation and other headlines and potential "micro-recessions" to get there.  David Goodsell, executive director of the Natixis Investment Managers' Center for Investor Insight, discusses the firm's recent look at America's massive ongoing wealth transfer, which found that 47% of inheritors don't plan to keep their parents' advisor. He discusses what's behind the changes and what kinds of advice inheritors are hoping to get.

Ron Sanchez, chief investment officer at Fiduciary Trust Company International, says in "The Big Interview" that solid fundamentals from both the top down and the bottom up should make it that earnings can drive the stock market higher once there is resolution in Iran, where war has been creating problems that could make for a volatile and bumpy few months. He expects higher inflation to be temporary, but thinks conditions are solid enough for a strong rebound once the market feels confident that there is resolution, noting that bounce-backs tend to be solid and strong after geopolitical conflicts end. That makes for selective buy-the-dip opportunities for patient investors.   David Trainer, founder and president of New Constructs, has been issuing warnings tied to artificial intelligence for a while, but this week he goes in a different direction, and comes for A.I. users in the Danger Zone," noting that the shortcomings of the new technology and a conflict of interest involved in its continued development have ordinary people relying on information that may not be so reliable. In "The Week That Is," Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, looks at how the market is responding to the flip-flop in headlines over the Strait of Hormuz and discusses whether investors should expect the market to take off once there is clarity on the war. He also discusses what's next for earnings season and looks at two business pivots involving name-brand stocks that have gone in very different directions.

D.R. Barton Jr., director of market research for the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, says he expects the market to continue its recovery through one more burst higher that lasts into the summer, but after that he is seeing "a bouncy, sideways market" with heightened volatility, swings reaching 20% up or down in a quarter. He is looking for "inflation-hedging names" for whatever happens coming out of the current cease-fire in the war in Iran, noting that he expects inflation to dampen the economy and the market for the remainder of the year. Isaac Wakszol, chief executive officer at Activest Wealth Management, says investors need to guard against "this time is different" thinking in wanting to make portfolio changes due to the recent increase in inflation and oil prices, war in Iran and more. He notes that in the market's last 100 years, there have been 17 recessions and 20 wars and that markets have always recovered, "and we're on Day 40-something of this war and the market is higher."  In preaching discipline, Wakszol did note that 2026 into 2027 will be "a year of reckoning" for artificial intelligence, to see if it can deliver on its promises, because failing that could dampen market enthusiasm. In The NAVigator segment, Rob Shaker, portfolio manager at Shaker Financial Services, says that the fear-based selling that gripped the market around the start of war in Iran created a "generic widening" of discounts for closed-end funds. Shaker, a "discount-capture investor," says that widening — and the current recovery — was caused mostly by "the irrational effects of excessive selling pressures overall," which means that the bad news is creating buy-the-dips opportunities rather than fundamental problems for closed-end funds.

Gabe Diederich, portfolio manager at Baird, says that long-term indicators for inflation haven't moved much, which is good news for bond investors interested in capturing steady income for the long haul. He says in the Big Interview that he expects the Federal Reserve to wait on rate changes — so long as the economy and labor market remains stable — until there is more clarity and certainty in the numbers. Diederich says that fundamentals for bonds across the spectrum look solid, but he says "There's a great story for the tax advantage of municipal bonds," and that investors should look to take advantage of the tax benefits to generate real income and stabilize portfolios. Kevin Callahan, founding partner, Fairway Capital Management — portfolio manager for the Fairway Private Equity & Venture Capital Opportunities Fund — talks about whether concerns in the private credit markets are bleeding into the venture-capital and private-equity space, and what lies ahead for alternatives markets, particularly as older technology investments made just a few years ago are looking less attractive in the face of artificial-intelligence developments today.  Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, highlights the brand new Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust, and what the entrance of one of the world's biggest money managers to the crypto ETF space — introducing the lowest-cost spot bitcoin fund — means for investors and the industry.

Dave Sekera, chief U.S. market strategist at Morningstar, says that the beating that technology stocks have taken has made the sector ideal for patient investors hunting bargains. He says technology as a sector is now trading at a 20% discount to the firm's composite of fair values, and there have only been two other times since 2010 when tech has been that undervalued. As a result, he's looking at some big-name companies — including a few Magnificent Seven stocks and some beaten-down software names — as buys now. Author John Coleman discusses his new book, "Good Money: Six Steps to Building a Financial Life with Purpose," which goes beyond just the money aspects to look at the work and social elements that will help make people happier and healthier, particularly as they transition more towards the retirement and slow-down phases of life. Also, Chip Lupo, analyst at WalletHub, goes "Off The News" discussing Federal Reserve data released earlier this month which showed that total consumer credit increased at a 2.2% annual rate in February. WalletHub's analysis showed that, if the numbers are not adjusted for inflation, credit card debt as of February 2026 was at a new record high, topping last February by 3%. (Without the inflation adjustment, total credit card debt in February 2026 was effectively flat year over year.)

Journalist Kit Chellel discusses his new book, released today, "Lucky Devils: The True Story of Three Rebel Gamblers Who Beat the Odds and Changed the Game," the tale of 1970s gamblers who applied early computer technology to  gambling at a time when the smallest computers were still the size of a suitcase. They created "advantage playing," and faced issues with casinos, the mob and more, but also laid the groundwork for a lot of what is happening now and being revisited in prediction markets and more. Heather Hunt-Ruddy, divisional president at Wells Fargo Advisors, discusses the firm's recent white paper on building and maintaining generational wealth, and how to accomplish transfers without spoiling the next generations or setting the grandkids up to become spoiled and irresponsible. In the Market Call, Joe Rinaldi, president and chief financial officer at Quantum Financial Advisors talks about both individual stocks and ETFs, discusses when he leans toward using one over the other, and says he is looking for opportunities now where he is being paid to wait for the market to recover and move back toward record highs.

Abe Sheikh, chief investment officer at Cordoba Advisory Partners, says that if tensions in Iran cool and oil prices settle down — which the futures market is saying is likely by year's end — says that the current spike in inflation is temporary and the risk of runaway inflation is much lower than it was during Covid times. With that in mind, he thinks current events are more setting up investment opportunities than stopping investors and getting them to panic away from equities and heightened volatility. With consumer sentiment at record lows — but consumer confidence improving ever so slightly — in March, Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, discusses why feelings make headlines but fundamentals make for better investment prospects. That's why he's leaning into some of the market's most beaten down sectors; he discusses his take on the private credit market and on how to lean into it for better yields without getting tripped up by the current-event risk, as well as what he expects from the Federal Reserve as it increasingly finds itself pinched between its dual mandates. David Trainer, founder/president at New Constructs takes a victory lap on his pre-IPO take that put $BIRD in #TheDangerZone before it even launched. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question asking for clarification on how sequence-of-inflation risk works and how it differs in certain key ways from sequence-of-return risk. He has previously said, many times, that his big fear personally is sequence-of-return risk, and has said lately that prolonged inflation should have many people worrying about how it will impact their retirement if it remains sticky for the next few years.