The crackdown on prediction market insider trading

Laws prohibiting insider trading in commodities markets — which could be applied to prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket — are more recent and untested than you might think. In this episode, we dig into two conflicting viewpoints: prediction markets as forecasting tools and prediction markets as regulated betting platforms. Plus: Durable goods orders continue a downward trend, the air travel industry weighs the role of small airports, and consumer inflation expectations rise. Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

We've got the first whiff of price growth as a result of President Donald Trump's war in the Middle East: A services sector purchasing index registered its highest reading since October 2022. Experts expect federal data out later this week to show a similar uptick in prices from February to March. And even if the war ends soon, that inflation could stick around. Also in this episode: The U.S. isn’t likely to institute an oil price cap, HSAs remain an imperfect savings tool, and more shoppers opt for secondhand clothing.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

The war with Iran has driven up the price of gas — as in, the gas we put in our cars. But what about natural gas, like the kind we use to heat and cool our homes? The U.S. is pretty well insulated from a natural gas price spike. Countries across Europe and Asia ... not so much. Also in this episode: Wage growth slows as the economy adds jobs, historic New England country stores pivot to stay afloat, and crude oil futures look a bit funky right now.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

President Trump said last night that military attacks on Iran will end in two or three weeks. But the effect on the global oil market will last much longer. In this episode, what it will take to stabilize oil supply and reserves — and how long gas prices will stay high. Plus: Hospitality groups make up a growing share of restaurant ownership, high oil prices haven’t pushed Permian Basin rigs to “drill, baby, drill,” and corporations take small steps to save the Colorado River basin.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

Thursday marks one year since President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on basically all imported goods — how time flies! The name of the game was uncertainty: U.S. small businesses pivoted from growth plans to stay-afloat plans, consumers grew gloomy but kept spending, and the U.S. manufacturing sector shed jobs. All while the rest of the world sorta shrugged and moved on. In this episode, we reflect on the year of the tariff.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

One glaring result of President Trump’s war on Iran, one month in? High oil prices. If fuel stays expensive, the cost could ripple through the global economy. Analysts think the market for electric vehicles in the U.S. could see a boost, for example, as gas prices shoot up. And countries in Asia may reopen coal production plants as crude oil becomes scarce. Also in this episode: Aluminum prices spike, Unilever sells off its food brands to a spice giant, and plasma centers see more middle-class donors.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

The cost of a barrel of crude surpassed $100 over the weekend, as war in the Middle East continues to block oil shipments. In simpler, car-commuter terms, gas prices have risen to $4-ish per gallon. But even if the conflict ended tomorrow, they would be slow to fall. Also in this episode: Small business owners remain cautious to hire, community banks struggle to win deposits, and some sectors could see job cuts if the war in Iran continues.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

A growing number of farmers can’t afford to plant their crops this year. It’s because of rising costs for diesel, fertilizer, and equipment parts — coupled with low crop prices. On today’s episode, we talk to an Ohio soybean and corn farmer. Plus, how our economic landscape has changed after four weeks of war. Also, we break down the new consumer sentiment survey. And finally, a New York City artist shares his experience with the job market and gig economy.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

Two years ago, a shipping container crashed into the Francis Scott Key bridge in Baltimore. Now it’s being rebuilt to be bigger and better. In today’s episode, we take you into the construction site. Plus, a new estimate on global inflation, a concerning trend with unemployment claims, and why the Federal Reserve usually looks past energy shocks. Also, “Marketplace” host Kai Ryssdal speaks with Janti Soeripto, president and CEO of Save the Children U.S., about how war is complicating the organization’s work.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

This morning, we learned that import prices rose 1.3% in February. That’s way more than expected — and that data is from before the war. In today’s episode, we dig into the price boost and what it means for inflation. Also, rising mortgage rates could spell trouble for the housing market, and a jewelry designer explains how gold and silver prices are affecting her work. Plus, a deep dive into the “sleepcation.” And finally, don’t strike out when you’re searching for tonight’s Opening Day baseball game — it’s on Netflix, and here’s why.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.