Ep. 359: Dylan Smith on the Hormuz Supply Shock, US Macro Regimes, and Private Market Evolution

Neil Dutta is Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro Research (renMac). He leads their macroeconomic research efforts, with an emphasis on analysing the US economy, the Federal Reserve, global trends, and cross-market investment themes. He is considered a market economist, looking at the economic data and trying to highlight the risks to the consensus as he sees them.  Prior to RenMac, Neil spent seven years at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch. There, he was a Senior Economist covering both the United States and Canada. In this podcast, we discuss: Neil's Wall Street "Origin Story" The Four Pillars of Economic Analysis The Real Income Squeeze AI, RSUs, and State Tax Revenues Pervasive Optimism and Reflexivity Risk The Fed's "Path of Least Resistance" The Warsh Nomination and Forward Guidance Productivity Boom or Demand Story? AI's Wealth Effect Beyond Accounting The 2027 Fiscal Headwind Substack vs. Institutional Research

Dr. Dirk Willer is a Managing Director and Global Head of Macro and Asset Allocation at Citi Research in New York. Prior to this role, Dirk headed global Emerging Market Strategy, where he and his teams were consistently ranked in the top three in the institutional investor surveys. Previously, Dirk worked at Omega Advisors and RHG Capital as a global macro strategist and portfolio manager, and at Swiss Bank as a fixed income strategist for Russia and Eastern Europe. Dirk holds a PhD and MSc in Economics from the London School of Economics. Dirk is also the author of an influential book on how to trade emerging market fixed income, published by Wiley in 2020, and of a book on global macro trading, released in 2026. In this podcast, we discuss: Unlearning the QE Reflex Trading "Close to the Fire" The Nearest Neighbour Regime Framework PMIs vs. "Noisy" Indicators Yield Curve Inversions and Fed Lags The "GMO" Bubble Methodology Credit as the Equity Canary The Four-Indicator Dollar Model Fading Geopolitical Shocks The Role of Human Judgment in AI 

Dylan is the founder of arcMacro, where he analyses macro and private markets. His previous roles include serving as an economist at Goldman Sachs and Rosenberg Research, and later as a private market consultant at McKinsey. In this podcast, we discuss: The Hormuz Supply Shock Stagflation as the New Base Case AI Capex vs. Energy Headwinds A Hawkish Fed Outlook Canada's Productivity Pivot The USMCA Trade Cloud Private Market Maturation Normalising Credit Defaults AI's Private Market Future

Shawn Edwards is Bloomberg's Chief Technology Officer. Based in New York, he oversees the development of Bloomberg's global technology strategy. In 2017, Shawn was named in the top ten of the Institutional Investor Tech 40 – an annual ranking of financial industry technology leaders. Prior to joining Bloomberg in 2003, Shawn worked for Bear Stearns & Co., where he was a managing director in the company's fixed income trading group. He has also held positions at Mentor Graphics and IBM. In this podcast, we discuss: Engineering Trust through "Entailment" Automating "The Bloomberg Way" ASKB: Reimagining the Terminal Workflow-Specific AI Expansion Actionable Alternative Data Empowering Non-Programmers Accelerating Data Onboarding Competition vs. Domain Knowledge A Cautious View on AGI 

Andrew Perry is the creator of Macro Pillars, a macro research product servicing a bespoke selection of global banks, hedge funds, and sophisticated investors. He has over 35+ years of experience in markets, including as a Portfolio Manager at Tudor Investment Corporation under Paul Tudor Jones, and later as a Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at Nomura. In this podcast, we discuss: The Five Pillars of Global Macro The Move Index: The Ultimate Indicator Non-Traditional Liquidity and Market Plumbing Australia's "Lucky Country" Crisis From Supply Shock to Demand Shock The Significance of "Critical Dates" Risk Management and Emotional Resilience US Equity Outperformance and Policy Makers

Tina Fordham is a Geostrategist, Author and Advisor to board and C-Suite leaders on a mission to transform how leaders navigate the changing global environment. Her signature theses on the Geopolitics Supercycle, PQ (Political Quotient) and Vox Populi Risk have entered the popular lexicon, while the tools developed by Fordham Global Foresight have demonstrated how geopolitics can be integrated into business strategy.  Fordham was Wall Street's original Chief Global Political Analyst, spending 17 years at Citigroup. She created Eurasia Group's financial markets research business; was appointed to the United Nations' first HighLevel Panel on Women's Economic Empowerment; and has served as a Senior Advisor to the U.K. Prime Minister and 2-and 3-star Generals.  Tina is a member of the International Advisory Boards of Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, her alma mater, and Cambridge University's Centre for Geopolitics. She hosts "The Navigator", produced in collaboration with the London Stock Exchange, and is a frequent guest on CNN, CNBC and Bloomberg.  Her forthcoming book, Mad World: A Geostrategy Survival Guide for Business Leaders, will be published in July 2026 by Whitefox. In this podcast, we discuss: The Geopolitics Super Cycle The 1973-Scale Oil Shock Europe's "Barely Controlled Panic" The 2026 Greenland Maneuver Venezuela and the Iran "Jujitsu" Move China's "Silent" Advantage The Rise of Middle Powers Raising Your "PQ" (Political Quotient)  You can follow Tina's work on X, LinkedIn, and the Fordham Global Foresight website. You can also contact Tina here,  

Phil is the founder of Suttle Economics – a leading research consultancy. Before that, he held senior roles at Tudor, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), JP Morgan, Barclays, the New York Fed and World Bank. He was educated at Oxford University and lives in the US. In the podcast, we talk about: The Oil Price Shock and "Negative Supply Curve" Impact  US Economic Stagnation and Population Seismic Shift AI as a Short-Term Inflationary Impulse The Fed's Potential Hawkish Pivot European and Japanese Central Bank Outlooks China's Resilience and the "Thucydides Trap" Market Rotations and the "Safe Asset" Shift US Midterms and Trade Tensions 

Nader is Argus' Middle East editor, based in Dubai. Argus is a leading independent provider of global energy and commodity market intelligence. Nader has more than 15 years of experience covering oil and gas in the region, and today heads up the company's Middle East and OPEC coverage. Prior to moving to Argus in 2015, Nader spent five years with the Middle East Economic Survey (MEES) weekly in Cyprus. In this podcast, we discuss: Fragmented GCC Stances Iran's Hormuz "Stranglehold" The "Zero Enrichment" Stalemate The Hormuz Transit Toll US Naval Blockade Tactics Downstream Infrastructure Damage Returning Shut-in Production Bypassing the Strait 

Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank. In this podcast, we discuss: The Billion-Barrel Supply Gap Physical Insurance and Pipelines The "Toll Booth" Strait Sanctions as a Safety Valve Wealth vs. Shortages China's Strategic Resilience The "Unilateral Taco" Scenario Long-Term Energy Optionality 

Richard Schimel is the Co-Founder and Co-CIO of Cinctive Capital Management – a leading multi-strategy alternative asset manager. Rich has over 30 years of experience in the investment management industry.  Prior to Cinctive, Rich was Head of Aptigon Capital, a division of Citadel, where he served on the firm's Portfolio Committee. Before that, Rich founded and served as the CIO of Sterling Ridge Capital. Earlier in his career, Rich co-founded Diamondback Capital, where he co-managed the firm as well as portions of the firm's overall investment strategy. Before Diamondback, Rich began his buy-side career at SAC Capital, where he was a portfolio manager. In this podcast, we will discuss: The "Sweet Spot" for Alpha Silos vs. Collaborative Culture Protecting the Left Tail AI Beyond Tech: The Power Theme The Pendulum Swing to Hedge Funds Middle East: The New Financial Hub The "Pattern Recognition" of Talent Fed and Sector Outlook