The Market Doesn’t Understand Compounding Risk

May 1, 2026 - Zach and Chase break down why the current oil and geopolitical situation may be far more dangerous than markets are pricing in. They walk through the concept of a “chain of errors,” how supply shocks compound over time, and why delayed economic effects could still be building beneath the surface. The conversation also covers global food risks, investor complacency, and why markets may not be sending the right signals in this environment.

April 30, 2026 - Zach and Chase break down a confusing market rally happening against a backdrop of rising oil, inflation pressure, and global uncertainty. They discuss why international markets are outperforming, how currency moves are driving short-term behavior, and why many investors may be buying the wrong assets. The conversation also dives into AI capex risks, distorted earnings signals, and why the easiest opportunities may be outside of U.S. markets right now.

April 29, 2026 - Zach and Chase break down why the current energy situation is fundamentally different from past oil shocks—and why the market may still be underestimating the impact. They walk through tightening inventories, rising fuel prices, and the cascading effects of supply constraints across the global economy. The discussion also covers tech earnings, rising capex pressures, Fed policy shifts, and why inflation could move significantly higher if current trends continue.

April 28, 2026 - Zach and Chase break down why investors consistently misjudge compounding—both in markets and in macro risk. They discuss Paul Tudor Jones’ insights on exponential thinking, why high-growth companies may not be as expensive as they appear, and how AI investment differs from past tech booms. The conversation also dives into rising supply pressures in equities, ongoing confusion around the Strait of Hormuz, and why the market may be underestimating how risk builds over time.

April 27, 2026 - Zach and Chase break down why the market may be misreading one of the most important macro events in years. They discuss the ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption, why oil markets aren’t reacting the way you’d expect, and how delayed economic impacts could still be building beneath the surface. The conversation also explores tech earnings strength, the illusion of resilience in certain sectors, and why many current market signals may be misleading.

April 24, 2026 - Zach and Chase break down a market hitting new highs while consumer confidence collapses to record lows, and why that disconnect may not last. They walk through the real-world impact of rising energy costs, the lag effect still moving through the economy, and why inflation pressures are likely just getting started. The conversation also explores AI-driven earnings growth, unsustainable margins, and how today’s environment could be setting up a major shift in market expectations.

April 23, 2026 - Zach and Chase break down the growing disconnect between rising oil prices and a stock market that continues to shrug off geopolitical risk. They walk through the real-world impacts of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption, why energy markets are driven by math—not narrative—and how inflation pressures are already showing up across the global economy.

April 23, 2026 - Zach and Chase are joined by Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman of Praetorian Capital to break down the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East, the potential long-term closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the massive implications for global oil markets. Kuppy also shares his “feudalism” framework for understanding the modern economy, where capital concentration, asset inflation, and global capital flows are reshaping markets and society.

April 2, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss the strange disconnect between rising oil, record-high equities, and a market that appears to be ignoring inflation, energy pressure, and growing macro risks.

April 21, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss the collapse of Iran negotiations, the extension of a fragile ceasefire, and why the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to create major risks that markets may not be properly pricing.