3 Lessons from the Fall and Maybe Rise of Coinbase (223)

This week’s podcast is about how personalization and never-ending customer improvements. This is a key operating activity. And sometimes a digital marathon for an operating advantage.You can listen to this podcast here, which has the slides and graphics mentioned. Also available at iTunes and Google Podcasts.Here is the link to the TechMoat Consulting.Here is the link to the Tech Tour.Here are the 4 steps to start personalizing.Step 1 is DOB3 (Digital Core) and DOB 6 (people, culture, teams). Do organizational change.Step 2 is to identify 3-4 Use Cases:These will impact different functions differently.Step 3 is to have an ROI within 6 months.Step 4 is to get the process to 5-7 days.Here are the 6 types of customers (from BCG).Brand advocatesMulticategorySingle-category regularsDeal seekersDisengagedLapsedHere are the 4 levels of personalization and customer improvements.Level 1 - Personalization PlaybookLevel 2 - Upgrade to Wow Experiences.Also move beyond just sales transactions. Do experience managementLevel 3 - Upgrade to complementary services. Bundles. Consumption ecosystems.Level 4 – Add AI services. This is where the Rate of Learning Marathon really matters. Watch for machine learning operating flywheels.————–I write, speak and consult about how to win (and not lose) in digital strategy and transformation.I am the founder of TechMoat Consulting, a boutique consulting firm that helps retailers, brands, and technology companies exploit digital change to grow faster, innovate better and build digital moats. Get in touch here.My book series Moats and Marathons is one-of-a-kind framework for building and measuring competitive advantages in digital businesses.This content (articles, podcasts, website info) is not investment, legal or tax advice. The information and opinions from me and any guests may be incorrect. The numbers and information may be wrong. The views expressed may no longer be relevant or accurate. This is not investment advice. Investing is risky. Do your own research.Support the show

This week’s podcast is about how non-rational behavior plays out products / services, consumer behavior and network effects.You can listen to this podcast here, which has the slides and graphics mentioned. Also available at iTunes and Google Podcasts.Here is the link to the TechMoat Consulting.Here is the link to the Tech Tour.Point 1: Digital is super-charging consumer products, experiences and behaviors. Especially when it is about psychology and emotion. And not just utility.Point 2: The most powerful version of digitally supercharged consumer products rise to the level of share of the consumer mind. A competitive advantage. Point 3: Products / services are increasingly being boosted by a degree of connectivity. This is usually described as community. Or interactivity. Point 4: Tribal and belief behavior can have a big impact on consumer experience. Sometimes rising to the level of SCM.Point 5: Tribal (shared identity) and shared belief behavior can increase retention. Sometimes rising to the level of Switching Costs. Point 6: Tribal (shared identity) and shared belief behavior can Sometimes rising to the level of Network Effects.Final Point: Digital tools are making tribal and belief effects more sophisticated, surgical and powerful. That is why it is showing up in everything.--------------I write, speak and consult about how to win (and not lose) in digital strategy and transformation.I am the founder of TechMoat Consulting, a boutique consulting firm that helps retailers, brands, and technology companies exploit digital change to grow faster, innovate better and build digital moats. Get in touch here.My book series Moats and Marathons is one-of-a-kind framework for building and measuring competitive advantages in digital businesses.This content (articles, podcasts, website info) is not investment, legal or tax advice. The information and opinions from me and any guests may be incorrect. The numbers and information may be wrong. The views expressed may no longer be relevant or accurate. This is not investment advice. Investing is risky. Do your own research.Support the show

This week’s podcast is about network effects. And my 6 questions to look for.You can listen to this podcast here, which has the slides and graphics mentioned. Also available at iTunes and Google Podcasts.Here is the link to the TechMoat Consulting.Here is the link to the Tech Tour.Here are the 4 network effects questions:What is the asymptotic scale?What is the minimum viable scale?What is the shape of the curve?What is the scale differential with rivals?Here the 4 network effect effects:Network effects can cause rapid increases in the real or perceived value and/or utility to customers. A product or service that increases in value TO THE USER is great. And this is usually what we are talking about with network effects.This is usually thought of as consumers. Or business customers. But it can also be for other user groups, like content creators and developers.This doesn’t necessarily mean growth. You can have a great and improving service in a small or flat market.Network effects can increase economic value. This is not the same thing as customer value (real or perceived). If a platform business model has attractive unit economics and growth potential, then you can see increasing economic value and shareholder returns with network effects. But not always. You can have a fantastic service with increasing customer but not economic value (by network effects)Network effects can create a competitive advantage. This is demand side economies of scale as a moat. This is what collapses the market to a monopoly or oligopoly. However, this doesn’t necessarily mean the creation of economic value. You can dominate an unattractive business. And it doesn’t necessarily mean growth. You can dominate a stagnant business.Network effects can create a barrier to entry. In digital, this is mostly by indirect network effects, which have a chicken and egg problem. That is hard for new entrants to overcome with an incumbent present. There is less of a barrier to entry with direct network effects. We also see barriers to entry in physical networks which require lots of tangible assets. Replicating a railroad is almost impossible in a developed country.--------I write, speak and consult about how to win (and not lose) in digital strategy and transformation.I am the founder of TechMoat Consulting, a boutique consulting firm that helps retailers, brands, and technology companies exploit digital change to grow faster, innovate better and build digital moats. Get in touch here.My book series Moats and Marathons is one-of-a-kind framework for building and measuring competitive advantages in digital businesses.This content (articles, podcasts, website info) is not investment, legal or tax advice. The information and opinions from me and any guests may be incorrect. The numbers and information may be wrong. The views expressed may no longer be relevant or accurate. This is not investment advice. Investing is risky. Do your own research.Photo is AI generatedSupport the show

This week’s podcast is about TikTok vs. Netflix. And how consumer behavior combines with digital tools in the video space.You can listen to this podcast here, which has the slides and graphics mentioned. Also available at iTunes and Google Podcasts.Here is the link to the TechMoat Consulting.Here is the link to the Tech Tour.Here is the interview with Jonathan Haidt. And his book the Righteous Mind: Why Good People Are Divided by Politics and ReligionHere are the 5 lessons:Lesson 1: High Frequency Video MTV Was More Powerful Than Long-Form TV StoriesLesson 2: Digital-First Netflix Crushed Cable TV with Selection, Price, and ConvenienceLesson 3: Interactive YouTube and Streaming Was More Powerful than Passive VideosLesson 4: TikTok Trumped Netflix Using “Endless Dopamine”Lesson 5: Machine Learning-Centric Video TikTok Was Also Superior for Consumers and CreatorsHere are the 5 mentioned content typesEducationStory tellingMindless entertainment. Including things like comedy.News / PoliticsSports—---I write, speak and consult about how to win (and not lose) in digital strategy and transformation.I am the founder of TechMoat Consulting, a boutique consulting firm that helps retailers, brands, and technology companies exploit digital change to grow faster, innovate better and build digital moats. Get in touch here.My book series Moats and Marathons is one-of-a-kind framework for building and measuring competitive advantages in digital businesses.This content (articles, podcasts, website info) is not investment, legal or tax advice. The information and opinions from me and any guests may be incorrect. The numbers and information may be wrong. The views expressed may no longer be relevant or accurate. This is not investment advice. Investing is risky. Do your own research.Photo is AI generatedSupport the show

This week’s podcast is about Coinbase, which has been coming back in terms of share price and revenue.You can listen to this podcast here, which has the slides and graphics mentioned. Also available at iTunes and Google Podcasts.Here is the link to the TechMoat Consulting.Here is the link to the Tech Tour.Here are the three lessons:Lesson 1: Don’t get seduced by stories and cool business models. Lesson 2: You live and die with the customer. Bitcoin + Coinbase was a 10x solution to a massive problem.Lesson 3: You can’t disrupt the government. Or State Owned or State-Directed Enterprises. Unless they approve.Coinbase and the Tech Uncertainties of Platform-Protocol Hybrids (3 of 3)(Tech Strategy – Daily Article)After the Fall of Crypto, Is Coinbase an Opportunity? (Tech Strategy – Daily Article)---------I write, speak and consult about how to win (and not lose) in digital strategy and transformation.I am the founder of TechMoat Consulting, a boutique consulting firm that helps retailers, brands, and technology companies exploit digital change to grow faster, innovate better and build digital moats. Get in touch here.My book series Moats and Marathons is one-of-a-kind framework for building and measuring competitive advantages in digital businesses.This content (articles, podcasts, website info) is not investment, legal or tax advice. The information and opinions from me and any guests may be incorrect. The numbers and information may be wrong. The views expressed may no longer be relevant or accurate. This is not investment advice. Investing is risky. Do your own research.Support the show

This week’s podcast is about CloudKitchens, the new venture of former Uber CEO Travis Kalanick. And why I think it is a better business model than Uber. In theory.You can listen to this podcast here, which has the slides and graphics mentioned. Also available at iTunes and Google Podcasts.Here is the link to the TechMoat Consulting.Here is the link to the Tech Tour.Here is the interview with Travis on the All in Podcast about this business.———I write, speak and consult about how to win (and not lose) in digital strategy and transformation.I am the founder of TechMoat Consulting, a boutique consulting firm that helps retailers, brands, and technology companies exploit digital change to grow faster, innovate better and build digital moats. Get in touch here.My book series Moats and Marathons is one-of-a-kind framework for building and measuring competitive advantages in digital businesses.This content (articles, podcasts, website info) is not investment, legal or tax advice. The information and opinions from me and any guests may be incorrect. The numbers and information may be wrong. The views expressed may no longer be relevant or accurate. This is not investment advice. Investing is risky. Do your own research.Support the show

This week’s podcast is about Kuaishou. And the key questions that determine its future.You can listen to this podcast here, which has the slides and graphics mentioned. Also available at iTunes and Google Podcasts.Here is the link to the TechMoat Consulting.Here is the link to the Tech Tour.Here are my three longer-term questions for Kuaishou.What is the future relationship with Tencent? As it relates to users and engagement?Economies of Scope. Does it need to move beyond video to other content and attention types. Like TikTok and Tencent have done.Economies of Scale. Is it subscale in video and entertainment? As a China-only business?Here is a past article on this. Kuaishou Is Finally Profitable. But Is It Too Small to Win Long Term? (Tech Strategy)Support the show

This week’s podcast is about Ruhnn Holding, KOLs / Influencers and Michael Porter's Five Forces.You can listen to this podcast here, which has the slides and graphics mentioned. Also available at iTunes and Google Podcasts.Here is the link to the TechMoat Consulting.Here is the link to the Tech Tour.Here are some factors to consider when assessing the bargaining power of buyers.Concentration of buyers: Purchase size: Differentiation of products or services: Switching costsPrice sensitivity: Informed buyers: Here are some factors to consider when assessing competitive rivalry.Number of competitors: Industry growth rate: Fixed costs: Exit barriers: Undifferentiated products / services: Here are some factors to consider for New Entrants.Economies of scale:Product differentiation: Capital requirements: Access to distribution channels. Government regulations: Switching costs: Here are some factors to consider for assessing the Threat of Substitutes.Availability of substitutesAvailability of close substitutes (i.e., “the sense that products are similar”): Relative price performance: Customer willingness to go elsewhere: Here are some factors to consider for Supplier Power.The number and concentration of suppliers: Uniqueness and differentiation: Switching costs: Forward integration: Industry importance: --------I write, speak and consult about how to win (and not lose) in digital strategy and transformation.I am the founder of TechMoat Consulting, a boutique consulting firm that helps retailers, brands, and technology companies exploit digital change to grow faster, innovate better and build digital moats. Get in touch here.My book series Moats and Marathons is one-of-a-kind framework for building and measuring competitive advantages in digital businesses.This content (articles, podcasts, website info) is not investment, legal or tax advice. The information and opinions from me and any guests may be incorrect. The numbers and information may be wrong. The views expressed may no longer be relevant or accurate. This is not investment advice. Investing is risky. Do your own research.Support the show

This week’s podcast is about Bilibili and its choice between staying with specialty video or going mass market video service.You can listen to this podcast here, which has the slides and graphics mentioned. Also available at iTunes and Google Podcasts.Here is the link to the TechMoat Consulting.Here is the link to the Tech Tour. ----------Related articles:When Microsoft’s Bundles Are Good vs. Bad for Customers and Markets (Tech Strategy)Microsoft’s 3 Big Upgrades to its 2 Platform Business Models (2 of 2) (Tech Strategy – Daily Article)What is Elon Musk’s Plan to 10x Twitter? (2 of 2) (Tech Strategy – Daily Article)From the Concept Library, concepts for this article are:Audience Builder PlatformDigital Attacker StrategyVideosFrom the Company Library, companies for this article are:Bilibili--------------I write, speak and consult about how to win (and not lose) in digital strategy and transformation.I am the founder of TechMoat Consulting, a boutique consulting firm that helps retailers, brands, and technology companies exploit digital change to grow faster, innovate better and build digital moats. Get in touch here.My book series Moats and Marathons is one-of-a-kind framework for building and measuring competitive advantages in digital businesses.This content (articles, podcasts, website info) is not investment, legal or tax advice. The information and opinions from me and any guests may be incorrect. The numbers and information may be wrong. The views expressed may no longer be relevant or accurate. This is not investment advice. Investing is risky. Do your own research.Support the show

This week’s podcast is about Lazada and the current state of ecommerce in Southeast Asia.You can listen to this podcast here, which has the slides and graphics mentioned. Also available at iTunes and Google Podcasts.Here is the link to the TechMoat Consulting.Here is the link to the Tech Tour.--------I write, speak and consult about how to win (and not lose) in digital strategy and transformation.I am the founder of TechMoat Consulting, a boutique consulting firm that helps retailers, brands, and technology companies exploit digital change to grow faster, innovate better and build digital moats. Get in touch here.My book series Moats and Marathons is one-of-a-kind framework for building and measuring competitive advantages in digital businesses.This content (articles, podcasts, website info) is not investment, legal or tax advice. The information and opinions from me and any guests may be incorrect. The numbers and information may be wrong. The views expressed may no longer be relevant or accurate. This is not investment advice. Investing is risky. Do your own research.Support the show