Episode 441: War, energy shocks and what comes next

Energy markets were jolted into crisis after war erupted in the Middle East on 28 February, abruptly ending expectations of a calm year marked by abundant oil and gas supply and falling prices.As the conflict escalated, energy infrastructure across the Gulf came under attack and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz ground to a halt amid sharply rising security risks.Oil and gas prices have since doubled, while market volatility remains exceptionally high. Key questions now loom large. How will European policymakers respond? At what point will sustained high prices begin to trigger meaningful oil and gas demand destruction in Asia?To answer all these, senior journalist Aura Sabadus has invited ICIS global LNG editor Ed Cox, crude oil editor Barney Gray and head of gas analytics Andreas Schroeder for a forward-looking discussion. 

The US-Israeli led war against Iran has unleashed extreme volatility across energy markets, with natural gas prices rising as much as 70% in the first ten days of March.Traders fear that the longer the shortfall lasts the more difficult it will become to refill gas stocks.While the fog of war remains thick in Iran and the Gulf, traders are struggling to get clarity and some degree of predictability. To find out how they navigate this situation and how events are seen by LNG traders, ICIS reporter Aura Sabadus caught up with James O’Brien, head of LNG at D.Trading, the trading arm of leading Ukrainian oil, gas and electricity private producer DTEK, and Luca Palmeri, CEO and founder of MCND, a dedicated consultancy, and himself a former senior LNG trader.

Europe’s single market is widely regarded as the jewel in the crown of EU integration. However, the energy crisis of 2022 showed that its electricity and gas markets remain fragmented, exposing the bloc to economic and security risks. Cracks are felt in the day-to-day work of producers, traders, suppliers and end consumers as they struggle with complex red tape and high costs.ICIS highlighted some of these challenges in a recent white paper. A report published by Energy Traders Europe on 24 February highlights the constraints and the possible solutions to deepening the EU electricity and gas markets.As the need to create an Energy Union is now at the top of policymakers’ agenda, ICIS reporter Aura Sabadus speaks to Mark Copley, CEO of Energy Traders Europe, and ICIS EU policy expert, Gretchen Ransow, about solutions to achieve consistency and alignment across the bloc and with neighbouring countries.

Lithuania’s offshore Klaipeda LNG terminal had a record year in 2025, with the port’s utilisation rate soaring well above the EU average. Operator KN Energies anticipates an even better year in 2026. It has launched an open season for long-term capacity and is expecting more central and eastern European companies to use its services as they are looking for a diversity of sources and routes. Although traders are incentivised by Klaipeda’s ease of doing business and transparency, they also flag limitations related to regional market liquidity and high regional transmission tariffs. In this interview, Darius Silenskis, CEO of KN Energies, tells ICIS reporter Aura Sabadus about the company’s short and long-term plans and its role in supporting market liquidity. 

The EU’s biomethane market has been developing at speed.Since 2023, production has risen more than 30% and the fuel is fast becoming not just an instrument to reach energy transition targets but is also making a real contribution to security of supply.A number of western European countries including France, Germany, Denmark, Italy, the UK are leading the way thanks to their extensive agricultural sectors and well designed subsidies schemes.However, building a single pan-European market is still a distant dream.ICIS energy news editor Andrea Battaglia tells senior reporter Aura Sabadus about the merits of this emerging sector but also the challenges that are slowing down progress.

Greenland has been holding the headlines in recent weeks as US President Donald Trump expressed an open interest in acquiring the world’s largest island amid claims of security risks in the Arctic region.Many observers reject the argument, insisting the race to take over the resource-rich island and possibly even neighboring Canada is largely driven by economic considerations.Canada and Greenland already have long-standing security arrangements with the US and extracting more fossil fuels at a time when the world is already awash with oil and gas does not make sense.What, then, is driving the latest US policy in the Arctic region?ICIS senior journalist Aura Sabadus has invited Arctic expert Dr Petra Dolata, associate professor at the University of Calgary, Canada, to find out.

The US military operation in Venezuela at the start of 2026 resulting in the capture of president Nicolas Maduro had a modest immediate impact on oil prices. However, questions raised by these events are highly consequential for global markets and the future geopolitical power balance.Shares in some US-listed oil companies rose sharply after the operation, but who will be the real winners and losers in the long term? What are the implications for global oil and gas markets, amid protests rocking Iran and the possibility other resource-rich countries and territories such as Canada, Colombia, Greenland or Mexico could be on Washington’s target list? Senior reporter Aura Sabadus has invited ICIS global crude oil editor Barney Gray and senior oil analyst David Jorbenaze to reflect on latest developments and the long-term outlook for markets.  

The loss of Russian gas imports, associated long-term capacity bookings and the reversal of gas flows in central and eastern Europe have led to soaring transmission tariffs and inevitably heated debates.  After decades of operating on a fairly simple business model, gas grid operators, regulators, traders and consumers are faced with multiple dilemmas on how to minimise costs while also ensuring revenue to meet challenges.  A patchwork of different views and approaches has emerged, often to the detriment of consumers, raising questions whether the EU’s network codes still provide the answer to managing complex situations. In this interview, Walter Boltz, former head of Austrian regulator E-Control, tells ICIS senior reporter Aura Sabadus that an altogether new vision is required that will require the involvement of the European Commission, ACER and ENTSOG.  

The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will be moving up a gear from 2026 when EU importers are expected to purchase and surrender CBAM certificates to cover the embedded emissions of imported carbon-intensive goods.Regulations will impact Energy Community contracting parties such as Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and the West Balkans countries either through their exports of electricity or other energy-intensive products. ICIS journalist Aura Sabadus has spoken to Peter Pozsgai, lead of the CBAM Readiness Task Force at the Energy Community, to understand the exact implications for both EU importers and Energy Community contracting parties.  

Transmission capacity on the Romanian-Moldovan border was overbid at quarterly auctions held in November as traders have been competing to sell gas to Moldova this winter. Only five years ago such a scenario would have been unthinkable. The country was fully reliant on Russian gas and depended heavily on Russian-controlled Transnistria for electricity supplies. After multiple energy crises triggered by Russia since then, Moldova has fast-tracked the implementation of EU-aligned reforms. Within less than six months it will start its gradual liberalisation of the gas sector and by 2027 it expects to couple its electricity spot market with that of the EU. However, as Constantin Borosan, director of energy regulator ANRE tells ICIS journalist Aura Sabadus, there are still many challenges ahead. These include ensuring the correct framework for functional power and gas markets, expanding the border gas capacity with Romania and Ukraine to facilitate regional transit and thinking long-term about the future of Transnistria’s energy arrangements.