The Hormuz Shake(down)

Iran says the Strait of Hormuz is closed. It’s not.Ships are still moving. Oil is still flowing.Just not for everyone. Friends pass. Also anyone with millions of dollars to spare.Enemies don’t.This isn’t a blockade. It's a shakedown.Bill Roggio sits down with shipping expert Sal Mercogliano to break down Tehran’s latest act of war: turning the world’s most critical shipping chokepoint into leverage.

The bombs are falling. The regime is reeling. But revolutions aren’t won from 30,000 feet.As Washington and Jerusalem pummel toward a mission accomplished, Bill is joined by FDD's Jon Schanzer to grapple with a harder question that looms: what happens if there’s no uprising when the bombing stops?

As pressure builds inside Iran, the regime is lashing out across the region.Bill Roggio, Joe Truzman, and David Daoud break down Tehran’s expanding battlefield from internal strain to external escalation and the question at the center of it all: Is this strength or a regime under stress trying to change the game before it loses control? Mentioned by BillWe didn't light it, but we tried to fight it.Day 14 of the Iran WarDon't want the regime to have nukes? Eliminate the regime.

As the US and Israel strike targets inside Iran’s borders, the regime is firing back outside of them. Across the region from tourist hubs and capital cities to energy infrastructure and U.S. military bases, Iranian attacks are dragging the region into the war and raising the cost of conflict. Ahmad Sharawi joins Bill to assess Tehran’s strategy and the threat it poses to Middle East stability — including a nightmare maritime scenario that no one is talking about.

As U.S. and Israeli strikes pound Iran’s military and Tehran threatens shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the conflict is entering a dangerous new phase. FDD’s Bradley Bowman joins Bill to break down what the strikes have achieved — and the harder question that remains: is the goal to weaken the regime… or bring it down?

After 12 days of war—and the death of Iran’s supreme leader—the Islamic Republic is under unprecedented pressure.Bill and Janatan Sayeh assess this initial phase of the war, the gap between Washington and Jerusalem’s goals, and the decisive question still looming over Tehran: will the Iranian people finish the job?

For decades, many Americans believed conflict with the Islamic Republic would be a new war. But as Bill and Behnam explain, the truth is simpler: this war began in 1979 — with hostage-taking, terrorism, and a regime built on hostility toward the United States and its allies. Now, after the killing of Iran’s supreme leader and a campaign to dismantle Tehran’s missile arsenal — and as Iran widens the war by firing at its neighbors and daring them to join — the question isn’t how the war started. It’s how it ends. Is this a limited war to degrade the regime — or the beginning of the end for the Islamic Republic?

Bill and Edmund Fitton-Brown recorded this conversation before the U.S. and Israel conducted the military strikes inside the Islamic Republic that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.In it, they pondered the question that Washington was wrestling with at the time: should the U.S. strike Iran, and what would happen if it did? From whether airpower alone can truly cripple Iran’s nuclear and missile programs to why regime change may be impossible without an actual armed resistance.They also pivoted to Gaza and the new “Board of Peace” plan — billions of dollars, a multinational force, and the question looming over it all: can it stabilize Gaza, or will Hamas sabotage it from the start?

It’s day four of Operation Epic Fury. So... what's the strategy?Bill Roggio is joined by FDD military analyst Cameron McMillan to assess the objectives of the campaign, the forces now deployed across the region, and why destroying Iran’s weapons before they launch them may be the only way to protect American forces.

Emerging reports following today's U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iran suggest Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead.If true, is regime decapitation the opening salvo of the fall of the Islamic Republic? What happens next?David Daoud and Joe Truzman are back with Bill to unpack what we know, what we don’t know, and whether this is the moment that reshapes the Middle East.Indeed, the stakes are generational, and the next few weeks could define the next few decades.