Fog of the Deal

One week after President Trump signed a landmark Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Iran, the 60-day negotiation window is already under pressure — and the concessions are piling up.Iran has gained unblocked oil sales, potential sanctions relief on frozen assets, and signals that Washington may allow Tehran to keep its ballistic missile program. Meanwhile, the US is pressuring Israel to stand down against Hezbollah. So, is this two-page MOU actually worth paper it’s written on?FDD Iran Program Senior Director and Senior Fellow Behnam Ben Taleblu joins host Bill Roggio to break it all down.

President Donald Trump said that a two-page memorandum of understanding (MOU) has been signed between the US and the Islamic Republic of Iran that will end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz. But will this deal bring about a lasting peace in the region, or has peace just become another five-letter word? FDD Senior Fellow David Daoud and Bill Roggio speculate on what will become of the Middle East and America’s influence in the region as this very thin MOU moves forward.

Despite multiple attempts by Israel to quell the fighting in Gaza and decapitate their leadership, Hamas continues a guerilla-style resistance. The IDF now fights on three active fronts, Lebanon, Iran, and Gaza. But it’s perhaps the forgotten war in Gaza that could resume major hostilities if left unchecked. Bill speaks with FDD Research Analyst Samuel Ben-Ur about next steps in Gaza. Was Trump’s Board of Peace a false window for both combatants to regroup? And, what may trigger a flare up in this long battle spurred by October 7th?

While attention remains fixed elsewhere, jihadist groups are expanding across Africa. Bill and Caleb revisit the growing threats in Mali, Nigeria, and Somalia—and why the continent remains one of the most consequential battlegrounds in the war against Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State.

Iran's military has been shattered. The Strait of Hormuz remains contested. Three months in, Bill and FDD's Jon Schanzer examine why quick victories are rare, patience is scarce, and this war is entering its most consequential phase yet.

Before Hamas. Before Al-Qaeda. Before the Islamic State. There was... (🥁)The Muslim Brotherhood. And for nearly a century, it has played the long game by building influence across the Middle East and even deep inside the West.But what exactly is it — a political movement? A terrorist organization? The ideological engine behind modern Islamism? Some combination?Bill is joined again by longtime friend of the show Edmund Fitton-Brown, now his colleague at FDD, to discuss.

Hezbollah's missiles may be depleted, but cheap FPV drones are changing the battlefield — slipping past defenses, targeting Israeli troops, and exposing a dangerous new vulnerability.Bill and David Daoud unpack Hezbollah’s drone evolution, the psychological warfare behind the footage, and why Israel may be drifting back toward the failed security zone dynamics of the past.

Iran’s nuclear program is in ruins, but the threat is far from dead. Deputy Director of FDD's Non-Proliferation Program, Andrea Stricker and Bill dive into the desperate gamble Tehran is making at the negotiating table with the U.S. — and the terrifying chemical contingency they might be holding in reserve.

The world’s most vital trade artery is under siege. As the U.S. launches "Project Freedom" to break the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, global shipping remains in a chokehold. This week, Bill sits down with shipping expert Sal Mercogliano to break down the stalemate, the dual blockade, and the massive economic ripple effects threatening the global supply chain.

Tehran is shifting the battlefield from missiles to markets, turning the Strait of Hormuz into leverage and testing whether Washington will trade long-term strategy for short-term relief. Bill and Behnam discuss.