AppLovin Bull vs. Bear Case: What Operators Know That Investors Don't

AppLovin just crossed $250 billion in market cap. Stock up 127% YTD. EBITDA margins at 82%. Is this the beginning—or the top?We assembled the most qualified panel possible to break it down: an operator running millions through AppLovin's platform, a gaming-focused financial analyst, and an institutional investor who's seen these cycles before.What emerged isn't your typical bull-bear debate. It's a breakdown of how dominance actually works in ad tech—and what could break it.IN THIS EPISODE→ Why AppLovin doesn't need to be better than competitors—just 95% as good→ The MAX/Axon lock-in that keeps publishers captive→ E-commerce expansion: AppLovin is beating Google on Android→ The SEC investigation and deplatforming risk (how worried should you be?)→ What one operator's portfolio data reveals about where the cracks are forming→ Each panelist's prediction for AppLovin in 2026SPEAKERSJosh Chandley — President & CEO, WildCard GamesMatthew Kanterman, CFA — Director of Research, Blue River Financial GroupBrian Peganoff — Former TMT Investor, Founder Timber AdvisorsJoseph Kim — CEO, Lila GamesTIMESTAMPS[00:00] Introduction & Panel Overview[01:22] AppLovin Financial Recap: 127% YTD, 82% Margins[04:52] Valuation Analysis: Is Growth Priced In?[07:15] The Bull Case: Infrastructure Lock-In[10:30] How MAX & Axon Create Publisher Dependency[15:45] E-Commerce Expansion: Beating Google on Android[22:10] Why Meta & Google Can't Compete on iOS[28:40] The Bear Case: Five Risks[35:20] SEC Investigation & Deplatforming Risk[42:15] The Infrastructure Risk Nobody Discusses[48:30] Competitive Landscape: Unity, Moloco, Meta[58:20] Connected TV: Wild Card or Dead End?[1:05:40] Panel Predictions for 2026[1:15:30] Key TakeawaysLINKSNewsletter: https://www.gamemakers.comFull article: https://www.gamemakers.com/p/applovin-bull-bear-casePixels & Profits is a GameMakers series covering the business and investing side of the gaming industry.

Most game studios either skip validation entirely or waste hundreds of thousands on academic testing that doesn't move the needle. Both approaches kill products.In this episode, we discuss why product validation is the difference between success and years of wasted development—and introduces two frameworks to fix your process.You'll discover:The Pyramid Decision Model: When to trust tastemaker vision vs. player dataWhy the "wrong tastemaker problem" is your biggest invisible risk5 critical validation failures (and how to avoid each one)The signal vs. noise problem: When player feedback actually hurts your gameStage-specific validation: Pre-production → Production → Soft Launch → Hard LaunchWhy expensive user motivation studies and persona research rarely workThis matters if:Your team debates "vision" vs. "data-driven" design endlesslyYou've hired consultants who delivered fancy reports but no resultsYour validation tests keep pointing in different directionsYou're burning runway without knowing if your core concept worksYou need a framework to match methodology to development stageThe uncomfortable truth: It's nearly impossible to evaluate a "right tastemaker" without historical success—and even then, they might fail in a new genre. Meanwhile, over-intellectualized academic approaches sound impressive but rarely translate to product gains.Bottom line: Product velocity = speed × direction. Validation should steer your direction, not justify executive forecasts or create someone to blame. This episode gives you the frameworks to validate what matters, when it matters.Read the full breakdown with detailed frameworks:https://www.gamemakers.com/p/your-validation-passed-your-playersTimestamps:(00:00:00) Why This Might Be the Most Important Topic Yet(00:01:07) The Two Extremes: No Testing vs. Testing Theater(00:05:28) The Pyramid Decision Model: Top vs. Bottom(00:09:52) Problem #1: The Wrong Tastemaker Problem(00:12:08) Problem #2: Validation Tests Are Often Flawed(00:14:08) Problem #3: Over-Intellectualization (Why Academic Models Fail)(00:17:14) Problem #4: Misinterpreting Validation Results(00:20:02) Problem #5: The Signal vs. Noise Problem(00:22:17) The What, When, and How Framework by Development Stage(00:25:33) Final Thoughts: Why This Is Really, Really Hard#gamedev #productvalidation #gamedevelopment #productmanagement #gamedevelopmenttips

Most game studios waste weeks of runway on the wrong analytics decision—here's how to avoid that mistake.Traditional analytics SDK vendors like Amplitude, Mixpanel, and Braze promise plug-and-play simplicity but deliver silent failures, contract negotiations, and escalating costs that can destroy startup velocity. In this episode, we discuss why the old analytics playbook is obsolete in 2025—and reveals the new meta that's eating market share.You'll discover:Why SDK analytics vendors fail silently (and cost you weeks of bad data)The contract negotiation trap that delays launches by 6+ weeks5 analytics infrastructure options compared (real costs, hidden tradeoffs)Why PostHog is the new standard for studios under 500K MAUHow the right stack can improve dev velocity by 30%+ and cut costs 40-50%This matters if:You're choosing analytics infrastructure for a new gameYour current solution is slowing down iteration speedYou're tired of waiting hours for batched event dataYou want warehouse-native architecture without enterprise costsBottom line: Your analytics decision could mean the difference between product-market fit and running out of runway. For small to mid-sized game studios, PostHog combines enterprise-grade power with pay-as-you-go pricing—no contracts, no traffic forecasting, no silent failures.Read the full breakdown with technical details, pricing tables, and implementation guides: https://www.gamemakers.com/p/the-new-meta-for-game-analytics-saveTimestamps (Episode Chapters):(00:00:00) The Studio-Killing Problem You're Ignoring(00:01:26) The "Silent Failure" Trap (How SDKs Hide Bugs)(00:02:41) How 15-Minute Data Delays Destroy QA Velocity(00:06:02) The Obsolete 3-Tier Analytics Model (and Why It's Broken)(00:10:38) The 6-Week Contract Negotiation Trap(00:14:16) The "Nostradamus" Forecasting Problem: Why You Always Overpay(00:16:19) Option 1: Traditional SDKs (Amplitude, Mixpanel)(00:25:32) Option 2: Firebase + BigQuery(00:28:34) Option 3: Unity Analytics(00:30:21) Option 4: The New Meta (PostHog)(00:36:14) Option 5: The Enterprise Trap (Snowflake)(00:39:01) Integrated (Braze) vs. Best-of-Breed (PostHog + CRM)(00:42:56) The Final Verdict: What to Choose By Studio Size

Most game studios think they have a talent problem. They don't. They have a structure problem.Chris Casanova spent 15+ years as a producer across Microsoft Xbox, Mojang (Minecraft), Relic Entertainment, Offworld Industries, and Hypixel Studios. He's watched talented teams fail repeatedly—not from lack of skill, but from organizational friction.Traditional studios organize around craft silos: design departments, engineering departments, art departments. Every feature requires handoffs. Every handoff loses fidelity. The result? Friction, misalignment, wasted iteration, and missed deadlines.Chris reveals the alternative: cross-functional outcome teams of 5-9 people who own their results from concept to ship.━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━TIMESTAMPS━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━00:00 - Chris's background: Xbox, Mojang, Relic02:59 - Why he wrote "Structure Teams to Win"06:54 - The problem with craft-based teams08:17 - Outcome teams: The procedural worlds example18:32 - Why 5-9 people is optimal team size24:10 - Three organizational layers explained31:48 - When leaders resist change42:20 - The political reality of reorganization47:15 - Case study: 70-person AA co-op shooter58:07 - Advice for small teams (10 people)01:01:06 - How to connect with Chris━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━KEY INSIGHTS━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━THE PROBLEMS:- Design creates specs without context → over-engineered solutions- Art produces assets without validation → endless iteration- QA receives unclear requirements → irrelevant bug reports- Every handoff loses the original intentTHE SOLUTION:Cross-functional teams of 5-9 people with:→ Mixed disciplines (designers, engineers, artists, QA embedded)→ Clear mission and measurable KPIs→ Everything needed to own their outcome→ Minimal handoffs, maximum collaborationREAL EXAMPLE:Procedural worlds team mission: "Every world seed feels fresh, readable, performant"KPI: Biome novelty per minuteTeam: Generation engineers, world designers, environment artists, technical artists, QA━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━70-PERSON STUDIO STRUCTURE━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━Chris provides detailed org structure for AA co-op shooter:- Combat & Gameplay (15 people, 2 teams)- Progression & Economy (10 people, 2 teams)- Social & Co-Op (12 people, 2 teams)- Content & Live Ops (15 people, 2 teams)- World & Narrative (10 people, 1 team)- Technical Foundation (8 people, 1 team)Each team has 5-9 people with mixed disciplines focused on specific outcomes.━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━THE HARD TRUTHS━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━Some leaders won't make the transition from managing 30 people to being on a team of 8. They'll resist or self-select out. And that's okay—holding onto territorial structures to preserve egos is how studios fail."If you have a C-suite that's divided, you're not going to be able to make this change. You need unified leadership."━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━RESOURCES MENTIONED━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━- "Team of Teams" by Gen. Stanley McChrystal- "Extreme Ownership" by Jocko Willink- "Structure Teams to Win" (Chris's Medium article)━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━CONNECT WITH CHRIS━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━Chris is seeking his next production leadership role.LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chris-casanova/Email: [email protected]: https://medium.com/@chris.casanova/structure-teams-to-win-15d98e65c5d7━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━READ THE FULL BREAKDOWN━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━Detailed newsletter post with implementation templates and additional examples:https://www.gamemakers.com/p/why-your-game-studios-organizational━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━Gamemakers podcast: Gaming business insights for developers, executives, and investors. Hosted by Joseph Kim. New episodes weekly.#gamedev #productmanagement #teamstructure #leadership

Western AAA development is not dead. Battlefield 6's 7 million unit launch proves it. This episode deconstructs how EA and Vince Zampella reversed the "disaster" of Battlefield 2042 by focusing on leadership, community feedback , and a smarter studio structure.Then, we explore why leadership is the ultimate "alpha". Joseph Kim breaks down the stunning turnaround of the UCLA football team—who went from a 0-4 disaster to a 3-0 winning streak (including beating #7 Penn State ) with the exact same players. The only thing that changed? Leadership and strategy. Learn how to apply these lessons on accountability , clear roles , and scheme-to-personnel fit to your game studio.Finally, we feature an excerpt from an interview with veteran producer Chris Casanova on why your studio is likely structured for failure. He explains the critical shift from "craft-based" (siloed) teams to cross-disciplinary "outcome-based" teams and how to implement it.Timestamps:[00:00:20] Today's Topics: Battlefield 6, UCLA Leadership, & Team Structures [00:01:51] Corrections: Revisiting the EA/PIF Deal & The "Copy, Improve, Innovate" Framework [00:04:33] Top 3 News: Battlefield 6 (7M copies) , Switch 2 Production , Arc Raiders CCU [00:06:42] MACRO: The Battlefield 6 Redemption Story [00:07:41] By the Numbers: BF6 (7M units) vs 2042 (4.2M) [00:09:19] A Quick History of the Battlefield Franchise [00:11:12] What Changed? The "Save the Franchise" Game [00:13:01] Fix #1: A Better Studio Coalition Structure [00:15:05] Fix #2: Going Back to Basics & Listening to the Community [00:16:14] Fix #3: Polish and Giving the Game Time [00:17:53] Fix #4: The Vince Zampella Factor [00:20:40] Deep Dive: Who is Vince Zampella? (Infinity Ward, Respawn) [00:28:22] ALPHA: Leadership is Your Biggest Competitive Advantage [00:31:18] Case Study: The UCLA Football Turnaround [00:32:15] The 0-4 Disaster (The Problem) [00:37:31] The Mid-Season Fix: Firing the Coach [00:39:10] The 3-0 Turnaround (The Result) [00:41:03] The Lessons: 1) Play to Strengths, 2) Accountability, 3) Clear Roles, 4) Belief [00:44:47] Applying the Lessons to Your Game Studio [00:48:55] GAME DEV: Interview with Chris Casanova [00:49:41] The Thesis: Shifting from "Craft-Based" to "Outcome-Based" Teams [00:52:43] A Practical Example: A "Procedural Worlds" Team [00:57:51] Key Takeaway: Why Outcome-Based Teams Win

Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund just closed the largest gaming acquisition in history—$55 billion for Electronic Arts. But this isn't the typical private equity playbook.In this episode, host Joseph Kim sits down with two M&A experts who break down what's really happening:- Chris Petrovic - Board Chairman & CBO at FunPlus, former President of Publishing at Zynga where he orchestrated their transformative acquisition strategy- Matthew Kanterman, CFA - Gaming industry analyst specializing in M&A and financial analysisWe uncover the hidden truths behind the deal:→ Why EA's "operational bloat" narrative is based on an accounting myth→ The real reason EA chose to sell now (hostile takeovers? portfolio pressure?)→ Why Silver Lake's involvement is primarily "for optics"→ What "patient capital" means for EA's studios and the broader gaming industry→ The mobile strategy question: Will EA and Scopely actually integrate?→ Growth opportunities in sports, Asia, and transmedia→ Who really controls gaming's attention economy nowThis isn't about short-term cost-cutting. It's about sovereign wealth rewriting the rules of gaming M&A—and what that means for developers, studios, and the industry's future.Key Takeaways:- At 17-18x forward EBITDA, EA sold at a discount to Activision's 20x—why?- With Take-Two now the only major independent US publisher, what happens to exit opportunities?- EA's conservative accounting makes them look less efficient than they actually are- This deal is measured in decades, not the typical 5-7 year PE timeline📬 Subscribe to Gamemakers Newsletter:https://www.gamemakers.com/🔗 Connect with our guests:Matthew Kanterman: linkedin.com/in/matthew-kanterman-cfa-b6345133Chris Petrovic: linkedin.com/in/chrispetrovic🎧 More episodes: https://open.spotify.com/show/4FdVLkx3msRFsqsEVA1vp0?si=b5192182dc6b4e52#gaming #mergers #acquisitions #ea #saudiarabia #gamedev #podcast

Why is your ad revenue flat even when your game's traffic is growing? Margins are getting squeezed by hidden fees, and old strategies of yelling at partners no longer move the needle. In this episode, we sit down with veteran ad monetization consultant Kelly Kang to get her modern playbook for building a resilient and profitable ad strategy from the ground up.Kelly Kang has optimized ad strategies for some of the biggest names in mobile gaming, including Big Fish Games, Aristocrat, and Glu Mobile. She provides a masterclass on auditing your current setup, choosing the right tech stack, and understanding the metrics that truly matter for long-term growth.In this episode, you will learn:The #1 reason your revenue margins are shrinking (and it's not what you think).A 4-point framework to audit your ad stack, from mediation to placements.Why you should track Ad Engagement and Impression Depth over ARPDAU and CPM.The most common (and costly) mistakes studios make when launching and operating ads.Actionable "quick wins" that can immediately boost performance.How to structure and scale your ad monetization team based on revenue, not workload.Episode Chapters (Timestamps):(00:00:26) The Biggest Pain Point: Squeezed Margins & Hidden Fees(00:04:21) The Day-One Audit: A 4-Point Framework(00:07:37) Strategy: Header Bidding vs. Waterfall(00:14:25) The Metrics That Actually Matter (Beyond ARPDAU)(00:17:54) Ad Placement and Format Strategy(00:27:35) Launching a New Game: A Step-by-Step Plan(00:38:29) How to Structure and Scale Your Admon Team(00:49:03) Common Mistakes That Kill Revenue and LTV(00:55:49) Quick Wins to Boost Ad Revenue(01:04:08) The Future of Ad Monetization & AIFollow Us:For more expert insights, subscribe to the Gamemakers newsletter: https://www.gamemakers.com/Connect with our Guest:To learn more about Kelly Kang and her work, visit Game Plan Advisor: https://www.gameplanadvisor.com

This week, we're breaking down the end of an era: the historic $55 billion acquisition of Electronic Arts. Go inside the deal to hear the likely banker's pitch that sold EA's board and what this massive leveraged buyout means for the future of the games industry.Then, we shift from titans to upstarts to uncover the secrets behind Grow a Garden, the Roblox game from a 16-year-old developer that quietly became the biggest in the world with over 22 million concurrent players. Learn how reviving and adapting a classic formula can lead to massive success on new platforms.Finally, we share a powerful mental model called the "Alien's Eye View"—a simple framework to expose the gap between your team's intentions and its actions, helping you align your goals and maximize development velocity. Tune in for critical insights into the business and craft of making games.

Is your game only available in English? You could be ignoring over 80% of your potential players. In this deep dive, I sit down with Alexander Murauski, CEO of localization agency Alkonost, to unpack the entire game localization playbook from start to finish.We cover the critical strategies, ROI analysis, and common mistakes that can make or break your global launch. Learn why you should start localizing on Day 1, how professional agencies use AI like ChatGPT to cut costs by 30% without sacrificing quality, and what to look for when choosing the right partner.Connect with our guest, Alexander Murauski:LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/amurauski/Email: [email protected] to GameMakers for more deep dives with industry leaders! Link: https://www.gamemakers.com/00:00:00 - The Mr. Beast Growth Hack00:01:02 - The Economic Impact: Unlocking 82% of the World's Players00:05:10 - How to Decide Which Languages to Localize00:06:10 - The #1 Rule: Your Marketing Plan Comes FIRST00:12:03 - Using Data vs. The "Base 10" Languages (FIGS & CJK)00:17:46 - The Golden Rule: Why You MUST Start Localization on Day 100:26:24 - The Most Common Localization Mistakes (Technical vs. Translation)00:30:45 - The Importance of a Glossary & Style Guide00:34:31 - Why Spreadsheets Fail & What Tools to Use Instead00:40:13 - What is a Localization Platform? (e.g., Crowdin)00:42:22 - How to Choose a Localization Agency00:59:24 - The Role of AI: Can't I Just Use ChatGPT?01:05:30 - How Agencies Use AI to Cut Costs by 30%01:12:19 - Case Study: A 15-Year Localization Partnership01:24:16 - The Founder's Story: From Side Hustle to 1,500 Translators01:35:14 - The Future of Localization01:39:32 - Where to Find Alex

On this episode of Game Makers, we explore three critical topics: how Delta Force's mobile revenue soared past PUBG's by 75% , why the "Take-Two Mafia" thesis is a myth centered on the wrong company , and a powerful framework for fixing your recruiting process by treating candidates like customers.In this episode, you will learn:MACRO: How Delta Force's monetization and LiveOps strategy led to a 6x revenue spike, and what its 97% revenue concentration in China means for Western studios.ALPHA: Why the popular "Take-Two Mafia" thesis is flawed and how the timeline points to Peak Games, not its publisher, as the true source of a mobile gaming "mafia effect".GAME DEV: How to apply the "Customer Journey and Touchpoints" concept from Tony Fadell's book Build to your candidates to create a recruiting process that attracts and wins 10x talent.Episode Timestamps:(02:20) Macro: Delta Force vs. PUBG Mobile Analysis (11:40) Alpha: Debunking the Take-Two "Mafia Effect" (22:30) Game Dev: Optimizing the Candidate Journey For charts and a full transcript, subscribe to our newsletter at: https://www.gamemakers.com/ Follow Game Makers and subscribe for more insights into the business and craft of making games.