Europe’s economic outlook: What to watch this autumn

In this episode of Future is Blue, Carlos Carnicero speaks with economist Luis Garicano, Executive Director of the newly launched Rhine Group, and Raymond Torres, Director of Funcas Europe, about why Europe is struggling to turn a widely shared diagnosis of its competitiveness problems into meaningful reform. They discuss the political and institutional barriers to action, whether smaller groups of countries may need to move ahead when agreement among all 27 is impossible, and why completing the Single Market remains critical for investment and for helping European companies scale. The conversation also explores how Europe can mobilise more of its abundant private savings, the need for visible “quick wins”, and the growing urgency of closing the gap in artificial intelligence. At the end of the episode, Garicano also highlights his new book, Messy Jobs: The Work That AI Cannot Reach, co-authored with Jin Li and Yanhui Wu, which examines how AI is reshaping jobs, organisations and the labour market.

Europe enters the autumn with an economy that has proved more resilient than expected, but still struggles with weak productivity, investment and technological dynamism. In this episode of Future is Blue, Carlos Carnicero Urabayen speaks with Raymond Torres, Funcas Europe Director, about what is supporting growth, why labour markets remain strong despite a sluggish economy, whether Europe’s competitiveness problem is now more about execution than diagnosis, why Spain continues to outperform many of its peers, and the key risks to watch in the months ahead — from energy prices and inflation to financial-market uncertainty.

Ten years after the Brexit referendum, the UK and the EU are cautiously rebuilding their relationship—but how far can this “reset” really go? In this episode of Future is Blue, Carlos Carnicero speaks with Anand Menon, Director of UK in a Changing Europe, about how the political and economic context around Brexit has evolved, what has actually been achieved so far in improving ties, and whether the fundamental trade-offs between sovereignty and market access can ever be resolved. The conversation explores the limits of the current approach, the EU’s strategic calculus in dealing with the UK, shifting public opinion, and the long-term scenarios for the relationship—from pragmatic cooperation to the possibility of rejoining.

Industrial policy is back at the centre of Europe’s economic debate. But can the EU turn subsidies, trade agreements and competitiveness strategies into real industrial strength? In this episode of Future is Blue, host Carlos Carnicero Urabayen speaks with Fernando Martín Espejo, head of analytics at Global Trade Alert, and Miguel Ángel González Simón, economist at Funcas, about Europe’s struggle to move from reaction to strategy. They discuss why money alone does not build capability, how market fragmentation weakens Europe’s investment case, why trade openness still matters in an age of economic security, and what Europe should look at by 2030 to know whether it has truly become more competitive.

In this episode of Future is Blue, Carlos Carnicero Urabayen is joined by Eulalia Rubio (Jacques Delors Institute) and Miguel Ángel González (Funcas) to unpack the European Commission’s proposal for the next Multiannual Financial Framework. The conversation explores whether the EU budget is undergoing a structural shift—from a traditional redistribution tool to a more strategic instrument focused on competitiveness, flexibility and crisis response. Drawing on lessons from Next Generation EU and the Spanish experience, the discussion looks at the challenges of implementation, the tension between cohesion and competitiveness, and what success should look like for Europe’s next long-term budget in an increasingly uncertain world.

In this episode of Future is Blue, Carlos Carnicero Urabayen speaks with Erik F. Nielsen, Senior Adviser at Independent Economics and former Global Chief Economist at UniCredit, and Raymond Torres, Funcas Europe Director, about the war in Iran and its implications for Europe. The discussion examines the likely impact on growth, inflation and energy prices, the policy choices facing European governments and the ECB, and the broader strategic challenge of responding to a world of more frequent geopolitical shocks and a less reliable US alliance.

Europe’s innovation strengths are clear, but so are its structural weaknesses. In this episode, Alessandra Colecchia from the OECD and Raymond Torres from Funcas discuss fragmentation, scale, security and what Europe must do to turn research excellence into economic impact.

In this episode of Future is Blue, Carlos Carnicero Urabayen speaks with Lourdes S. Casanova (Cornell University) and Raymond Torres (Funcas) about how Europe should navigate its increasingly complex relationship with China. The discussion explores whether China’s economic rise reflects strategic policy success or systemic distortions, why Chinese multinationals are reshaping global competition, and what Europe’s €360bn trade deficit signals about structural vulnerabilities. The episode also examines the need for EU unity in negotiations, the risks of fragmented national strategies, the role of countries such as Spain in attracting Chinese investment, and whether transatlantic tensions should push Europe closer to Beijing — or instead accelerate efforts to strengthen Europe’s own economic foundations.

In this episode of Future is Blue, Carlos Carnicero Urabayen speaks with Ignacio García Bercero (Bruegel) and Miguel Ángel González-Simón about why trade has become a key stress test for Europe in 2026. They discuss rising transatlantic tensions, the use of tariffs as economic coercion — drawing on García Bercero’s recent Bruegel article — and the EU’s capacity to respond using existing trade defence tools. The conversation also explores Europe’s fragile economic resilience, the impact of uncertainty and trade fragmentation on investment and productivity, and the priorities for the year ahead, from advancing key trade agreements to strengthening the EU single market. 

As 2025 draws to a close, Europe faces a harsher global environment shaped by a more assertive second Trump administration, intensifying economic pressure from China, and persistent internal weaknesses. In this episode of Future is Blue, Iain Begg (LSE) and Raymond Torres (Funcas) argue that Europe’s response over the past year has been largely defensive, constrained by fragmented leadership, stalled internal reforms, and a governance model ill-suited to a world increasingly driven by power and coercion rather than cooperation. They discuss how Trump’s use of “sharp power,” China’s growing trade imbalance with the EU, and Europe’s failure to translate diagnoses such as the Draghi report into action have left the bloc vulnerable. Looking ahead to 2026, both see cautious grounds for optimism — from easing financial conditions to renewed fiscal space — but stress that progress will depend on Europe’s ability to act collectively, particularly in areas such as defence, technology, and capital markets, rather than continuing to rely on national solutions in a geopolitical world.