How to Make Your Own Luck (Update)

Before she decided to become a poker pro, Maria Konnikova didn’t know how many cards are in a deck. But she did have a Ph.D. in psychology, a brilliant coach, and a burning desire to know whether life is driven more by skill or chance. She found some answers in poker — and she’s willing to tell us everything she learned. SOURCES:Maria Konnikova, author of The Biggest Bluff. RESOURCES:“Gender Differences in Performance Predictions: Evidence from the Cognitive Reflection Test,” by Patrick Ring, Levent Neyse, Tamas David-Barett, and Ulrich Schmidt (Frontiers in Psychology, 2016).“The headwinds/tailwinds Asymmetry: An Availability Bias in Assessments of Barriers and Blessings,” by Shai Davidai and Thomas Gilovich (Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 2016).“The Two Settings of Kind and Wicked Learning Environments,” by Robin M. Hogarth, Tomás Lejarraga, and Emre Soyer (Current Directions in Psychological Science, 2015)."The Limits of Self-Control: Self-Control, Illusory Control, and Risky Financial Decision Making,” by Maria Konnikova (Columbia University, 2013).“Generalized expectancies for internal versus external control of reinforcement” by J.B. Rotter (Psychological Monographs: General and Applied, 1966). EXTRAS:The Biggest Bluff: How I Learned to Pay Attention, Master Myself, and Win, by Maria Konnikova.Mastermind: How to Think Like Sherlock Holmes, by Maria Konnikova.The Confidence Game, by Maria Konnikova.Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, by John Von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern."This Year’s World Series Of Poker Is Different," by Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova (2025).

Cory Booker on the politics of fear, the politics of hope, and how to split the difference. SOURCES:Cory Booker, senior United States Senator from New Jersey. RESOURCES:"'When Are More Americans Going to Speak Up?'" by The New Yorker Radio Hour (2025)."Cory Booker’s Marathon Floor Speech," (2025)."Facebook Knows Instagram Is Toxic for Teen Girls, Company Documents Show," by Georgia Wells, Jeff Horwitz, and Deepa Seetharaman (Wall Street Journal, 2021)."Tucked Into the Tax Bill, a Plan to Help Distressed America," by Jim Tankersley (New York Times, 2018).United: Thoughts on Finding Common Ground and Advancing the Common Good, by Cory Booker (2017)."But What Did Cory Booker Actually Accomplish in Newark?" by J.B. Wogan (Governing, 2013). EXTRAS:"Ten Myths About the U.S. Tax System," by Freakonomics Radio (2025)."The United States of Cory Booker," by Freakonomics Radio (2016).

In the U.S., there will soon be more people over 65 than there are under 18 — and it’s not just lifespan that’s improving, it’s “healthspan” too. Unfortunately, the American approach to aging is stuck in the 20th century. In less than an hour, we try to unstick it. (Part three of a three-part series, “Cradle to Grave.”) SOURCES:James Chappel, professor of history at Duke University.Katy Fike, co-founder of Aging 2.0 and managing partner of Generator Ventures.Kristen Fortney, co-founder and C.E.O. of BioAge.Celine Halioua, founder and C.E.O. of Loyal.Kyla Scanlon, economic commentator.Andrew Scott, professor of economics at London Business School. RESOURCES:In This Economy?: How Money & Markets Really Work, by Kyla Scanlon (2024).Golden Years: How Americans Invented and Reinvented Old Age, by James Chappel (2024).The Longevity Imperative: How to Build a Healthier and More Productive Society to Support Our Longer Lives, by Andrew Scott (2024). EXTRAS:"Off Leash," by The Freakonomics Radio Network (2022)."Are You Ready for a Glorious Sunset?" by Freakonomics Radio (2015).

In this episode from 2013, we look at whether spite pays — and if it even exists. SOURCES:Benedikt Herrmann, research officer at the European Commission.Steve Levitt, co-author of Freakonomics and host of People I (Mostly) Admire.Dave O'Connor, president of Times Studios.Lisi Oliver, professor of English at Louisiana State University.E.O. Wilson, naturalist and university research professor emeritus at Harvard University. RESOURCES:You Don't Know Bo: The Legend of Bo Jackson, documentary (2012)."Amputation of the nose throughout history," by G. Sperati (ACTA Otorhinolaryngologica Italica, 2009)."The Appearance of Homo Rivalis: Social Preferences and the Nature of Rent Seeking," by Benedikt Herrmann and Henrik Orzen (Center for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, 2008). EXTRAS:"What It’s Like to Be Middle-Aged (in the Middle Ages)," by Freakonomics Radio (2025).

The simplicity of life back then is appealing today, as long as you don’t mind Church hegemony, the occasional plague, trial by gossip — and the lack of ibuprofen. (Part two of a three-part series, “Cradle to Grave.”) SOURCES:Jordan Cavalier, performer at the New Jersey Renaissance Faire.Matt Schwarz, harpist at the New Jersey Renaissance Faire.Phillipp Schofield, professor of history at Aberystywth University.Neslihan Şenocak, professor of history at Columbia University. RESOURCES:A People's Church: Medieval Italy and Christianity, 1050–1300, co-edited by Agostino Paravicini Bagliani and Neslihan Şenocak (2023).The Routledge Handbook of Medieval Rural Life, edited by Miriam Müller with a contribution by Phillip Schofield (2021).Monty Python and the Holy Grail, film (1975). EXTRAS:"Are You Having a Midlife Crisis?" by No Stupid Questions (2022).

For decades, the great fear was overpopulation. Now it’s the opposite. How did this happen — and what’s being done about it? (Part one of a three-part series, “Cradle to Grave.”) SOURCES:Matthias Doepke, professor of economics at the London School of Economics.Amy Froide, professor of history at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County.Diana Laird, professor of obstetrics and gynecology at the University of California, San Francisco.Catherine Pakaluk, professor of economics at The Catholic University of America. RESOURCES:"Fertility Rate, Total for the United States," (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2025)."Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021," (The Lancet, 2024)."Suddenly There Aren’t Enough Babies. The Whole World Is Alarmed." by Greg Ip and Janet Adamy (The Wall Street Journal, 2024)."Taxing bachelors and proposing marriage lotteries – how superpowers addressed declining birthrates in the past," by Amy Froide (University of Maryland, 2021)."Is Fertility a Leading Economic Indicator?" by Kasey Buckles, Daniel Hungerman, and Steven Lugauer (National Bureau of Economic Research, 2018).The King's Midwife: A History and Mystery of Madame du Coudray, by Nina Rattner Gelbart (1999).The Population Bomb, by Paul Ehrlich (1970)."An Economic Analysis of Fertility," by Gary Becker (National Bureau of Economic Research, 1960). EXTRAS:"What Will Be the Consequences of the Latest Prenatal-Testing Technologies?" by Freakonomics Radio (2011).

A famous essay argues that “not a single person on the face of this earth” knows how to make a pencil. How true is that? In this 2016 episode, we looked at what pencil-making  can teach us about global manufacturing — and the proper role of government in the economy. SOURCES:Caroline Weaver, creator of the Locavore Guide.Matt Ridley, science writer, British viscount and retired member of the House of LordsTim Harford, economist, author and columnist for the Financial TimesJim Weissenborn, former CEO of General Pencil CompanyThomas Thwaites, freelance designer and associate lecturer at Central Saint Martins. RESOURCES:"When ideas have sex," by Matt Ridley (TED, 2010)."How I built a toaster — from scratch," by Thomas Thwaites (TED, 2010)."Look on this toaster, ye mighty, and despair!" by Tim Harford (Financial Times, 2009)."I, Pencil," by Leonard Read (Foundation for Economic Education, 1958). EXTRAS:“Fault-Finder Is a Minimum-Wage Job,” by Freakonomics Radio (2025).

Nicholas Cullinan, the new director of the British Museum, seems to think so. “I'm not afraid of the past,” he says — which means talking about looted objects, the basement storerooms, and the leaking roof. We take the guided tour. SOURCES:Nicholas Cullinan, director of the British Museum. RESOURCES:"Inside the British Museum: stolen treasures and a £1bn revamp," by Alice Thomson (The Times, 2025)."British Museum gems for sale on eBay - how a theft was exposed," by Katie Razzall, Larissa Kennelly, and Darin Graham (BBC, 2024)."British Museum chief Nicholas Cullinan: ‘I start with the idea that everything is possible,'" by Jan Dalley (Financial Times, 2024)."Who Benefits When Western Museums Return Looted Art?" by David Frum (The Atlantic, 2022).The Will of Sir Hans Sloane, by Sir Hans Sloane (1753).The Portland Vase (The British Museum). EXTRAS:"Stealing Art Is Easy. Giving It Back Is Hard." by Freakonomics Radio (2023).

Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, is less reserved than the average banker. He explains why vibes are overrated, why the Fed’s independence is non-negotiable, and why tariffs could bring the economy back to the Covid era. SOURCES:Austan Goolsbee, president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. RESOURCES:"Internet Rising, Prices Falling: Measuring Inflation in a World of E-Commerce," by Austan Goolsbee and Peter Klenow (American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings, 2018).Microeconomics, by Austan Goolsbee, Steven Levitt, and Chad Syverson (2012)."Does the Internet Make Markets More Competitive? Evidence from the Life Insurance Industry," by Jeffrey Brown and Austan Goolsbee (Journal of Political Economy, 2002).Survey of Consumers (University of Michigan).Adobe Digital Price Index. EXTRAS:"Was Austan Goolsbee’s First Visit to the Oval Office Almost His Last?" by People I (Mostly) Admire (2022)."Is $2 Trillion the Right Medicine for a Sick Economy?" by Freakonomics Radio (2020)."Fed Up," by Freakonomics Radio (2019)."Why the Trump Tax Cuts Are Terrible/Awesome (Part 2)" by Freakonomics Radio (2018)."Ben Bernanke Gives Himself a Grade," by Freakonomics Radio (2015)."Should the U.S. Merge With Mexico?" by Freakonomics Radio (2014).

Just beneath the surface of the global economy, there is a hidden layer of dealmakers for whom war, chaos, and sanctions can be a great business opportunity. Javier Blas and Jack Farchy, the authors of The World for Sale, help us shine a light on the shadowy realm of commodity traders. SOURCES:Javier Blas, opinion columnist at Bloomberg News.Jack Farchy, energy and commodities senior reporter at Bloomberg News. RESOURCES:The World For Sale: Money, Power, and the Traders Who Barter the Earth's Resources, by Javier Blas and Jack Farchy (2021)The King of Oil: The Secret Lives of Marc Rich, by Daniel Ammann (2010). EXTRAS:"How the Supermarket Helped America Win the Cold War (Update)" by Freakonomics Radio (2024)."The First Great American Industry," by Freakonomics Radio (2023).