Episode 542: Promises and Peace: Can Security Guarantees End the War in Ukraine?

Today, Jess, Les, Morgan, and Matthew discuss why Greenland has suddenly become a focal point of U.S. foreign policy. President Trump has reignited debate by publicly suggesting the United States should own Greenland, escalating rhetoric well beyond existing basing rights under the 1951 agreement with Denmark. While administration officials have walked back any suggestion of force, Greenlandic leaders have rejected the idea outright—even as the island’s strategic importance grows amid heightened Arctic competition involving Russia and China.What national security concerns is the administration trying to address with its approach to Greenland? Is the focus on Greenland driven by concerns over Russian and Chinese military activity, access to critical minerals, missile overflight risks, or all of the above? And while the U.S. case for Greenland’s strategic importance is clear, does the administration’s approach risk alienating Denmark and other NATO allies — and if so, at what cost to Arctic cooperation?@morganlroach@lestermunson@NotTVJessJonesLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/65o2FCiBrjw Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Les, Jamil, and Algene discuss the United States’ announcement that it would provide security guarantees to Ukraine as part of a potential peace settlement with Russia. The move follows discussions in Paris between U.S. and European partners, outlining a proposed security architecture for Ukraine and “legally binding” commitments meant to support a postwar order. U.S. Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have both indicated President Trump’s backing, and Ukrainian officials say roughly 90 percent of a peace framework is agreed—though major territorial questions remain unresolved.What do security guarantees actually mean in practice, and do they bring Ukraine any closer to a durable peace? Are these commitments meaningful deterrents, or largely symbolic without clear enforcement mechanisms? And with Russia showing no willingness to accept a ceasefire—or the presence of Western peacekeepers—what happens if Moscow simply ignores the framework altogether? Check out the sources that helped shape our Fellows’ discussion: @morganlroach@lestermunson@jamil_n_jaffer@algenesajeryLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Episode 541: Operation Maximum Resolve - Regime Tailoring?Today, Les, Morgan, Jess, and Matthew discuss the U.S. operation in Venezuela over the weekend that extracted President Nicolás Maduro and his wife and brought them to New York to face drug trafficking charges. While the Trump administration says no U.S. troops are currently on the ground and denies plans to run Venezuela’s day-to-day affairs, the operation follows months of apparent intelligence and military preparation and coincides with a significant U.S. naval presence offshore. Former Vice President Delcy Rodríguez has been sworn in as interim president, setting the stage for a highly uncertain next phase inside the country.Is this regime change—or a more limited leadership removal designed to avoid the mistakes of past U.S. interventions? Does extracting a single leader offer a cheaper, more effective alternative to invasion and occupation, or does it raise serious questions about sovereignty and international law? And can the United States translate a stunning military and intelligence success into lasting deterrence, democratic opportunity, and a rollback of Russian and Chinese influence in the Western Hemisphere?@lestermunson@morganlroach@nottvjessjonesLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/OEyq3qnwbyo  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Episode 540: The Holiday Special - Unwrapping 2025Today, Jessica, Jamil, Morgan, Lester, Les, Lipsey, Matthew, and Marc take stock of a consequential year in U.S. national security. From President Trump’s push to brand himself as a “peace president”—highlighted by multiple diplomatic agreements and the Gaza peace plan—to moments of hard power, including U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear program, 2025 defied easy labels. The team reflects on undercovered but significant developments as well: the dismantling of the U.S. foreign assistance architecture, growing concern over advanced technology transfers to China, sweeping changes to the federal workforce through DOGE, and a renewed focus on the Western Hemisphere, particularly Venezuela and Haiti.Looking ahead to 2026, what will ultimately shape U.S. national security: the trajectory of Ukraine, a recalibration of China policy, or the domestic pressures of a midterm election year? Are tariffs becoming a permanent tool of U.S. leverage or a temporary negotiating tactic? And as the administration continues to reshape how American power is exercised, which lessons from 2025 will matter most?@jamil_n_jaffer@nottvjessjones@lestermunson@WashingtonFlack@morganlroachLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Episode 539: Live from RNDF: Ambassador YuiAs part of our crossover series of Fault Lines and CTRL+F, “Modern Deterrence: Allies, Innovation, and the Future of Defense,” recorded live at the Reagan National Defense Forum, Jess and Jamil sit down with Ambassador Yui, Taiwan’s Representative to the United States. With more than 35 years of diplomatic experience—including senior leadership roles in Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and postings across Europe, Latin America, and the U.S.—Ambassador Yui offers a uniquely informed view of the shifting security landscape in the Indo-Pacific and Taiwan’s evolving role within it.How does Taiwan assess the current deterrence environment amid intensifying PLA activity and hybrid pressure from Beijing? Where are the biggest opportunities, and remaining obstacles, in United States–Taiwan defense, economic, and technological partnership? And as Taiwan advances major modernization efforts, from asymmetric defense to cyber resilience and semiconductor security, what should Washington understand about the capabilities, priorities, and challenges shaping Taiwan’s strategic future?@jamil_n_jaffer@nottvjessjonesLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As part of our crossover series of Fault Lines and CTRL+F, “Modern Deterrence: Allies, Innovation, and the Future of Defense,” recorded live at the Reagan National Defense Forum, Jess and Jamil sit down with Washington Harbour Partners Founder and Chief Investment Officer Mina Faltas - with a surprise appearance from NSI Advisory Board Member and Silverado Policy Accelerator co-founder Dmitri Alperovitch. Together, they explore how private capital, technological innovation, and strategic competition are reshaping the future of American and allied deterrence. How are investors evaluating risk in an era defined by U.S.–China rivalry, hybrid conflict, and accelerating breakthroughs in technology? What role should private capital play in national security, and where is the market still mispricing geopolitical and regulatory risk? And as cyber and space become more central to modern conflict, how can the U.S. and its allies strengthen resilience and build the next generation of deterrence?@NotTVJessJones@jamil_n_jafferLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/pPe4xGxqF2w Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As part of our crossover series of Fault Lines and CTRL+F, “Modern Deterrence: Allies, Innovation, and the Future of Defense,” recorded live at the Reagan National Defense Forum, Jamil and Jess sit down with Congressman Don Bacon, retired Air Force Brigadier General and chair of the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Cyber, Information Technologies, and Innovation. How should Congress prioritize modernization as China, Russia, and other adversaries accelerate their investment in emerging technologies? What lessons from Ukraine should shape U.S. doctrine, acquisitions, and alliance cooperation? And how should the U.S. think about offensive cyber, AI-enabled capabilities, and the future of deterrence in a rapidly evolving threat landscape?@jamil_n_jaffer@morganlroachLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/eU3qAdj1P6M  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As part of our crossover series of Fault Lines and CTRL+F, “Modern Deterrence: Allies, Innovation, and the Future of Defense,” recorded live at the Reagan National Defense Forum, Jess and Morgan sit down with Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, former U.S. National Security Advisor. Drawing on insights from his decades of service and his work shaping the U.S. military’s future force, McMaster helps us understand what’s truly new in today’s era of great-power competition and rapid technological change - and why this moment might be when Russia is at its weakest.  (If I am remembering correctly talked a lot about Russia)How should policymakers think about deterrence in a world where battlefields stretch from Europe to the Indo-Pacific to cyberspace? What historical “rhymes” matter most right now? What gives McMaster confidence in America’s ability to compete and what keeps him up at night?@nottvjessjones@morganlroachLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/UPUQgEVSV08  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As part of our crossover series of Fault Lines and CTRL+F, “Modern Deterrence: Allies, Innovation, and the Future of Defense,” recorded live at the Reagan National Defense Forum, Morgan and Jess speak with Dan Jablonsky, CEO of Ursa Major. They discuss how startups and nontraditionals are reshaping the defense technology landscape, the strategic importance of next-generation rocket propulsion, and the role of manufacturing innovation in strengthening U.S. and allied capabilities. What role should industry play in modern deterrence? How can the United States accelerate adoption of cutting-edge systems while building trust between government and industry? And as emerging threats—from hypersonics to hybrid conflict—challenge traditional military advantage, how can U.S. innovators help maintain the technological edge that underpins American and allied security?@morganlroach@nottvjessjonesLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/9__6jFUFYoY Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As part of our crossover series of Fault Lines and CTRL+F, “Modern Deterrence: Allies, Innovation, and the Future of Defense,” recorded live at the Reagan National Defense Forum, Jamil, Morgan, and Jess discuss the Trump Administration’s newly released National Security Strategy. They break down the major pillars of the strategy, from the administration’s call for “peace through strength” and its renewed emphasis on economic security, reindustrialization, and energy dominance, to its focus on burden-shifting with allies, deterring adversaries, and reasserting U.S. primacy in key regions, including the Western Hemisphere, the Indo-Pacific, and Europe.What does this strategy signal about the Trump Administration’s priorities heading into 2026? How does it reshape America’s approach to allies, competitors, and emerging technologies? And what does it reveal, explicitly and implicitly, about the administration’s theory of deterrence in an age defined by simultaneous regional crises and great-power rivalry?Check out these sources that helped shape our fellows’ discussions: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf@morganlroach@jamil_n_jaffer@nottvjessjonesLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/xxSDkMBoVl8  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.