Evening Market Recap - Tuesday, 4-Nov

Major US equity indices were down this week, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq declining after three straight weekly gains. AI scrutiny remained a key focus, with attention on all the major narrative elements including cash burn, leverage, circularity, and ROI. There was attention on OpenAI agreeing to a $38B deal with Amazon, pushing the company's recent commitments near $1.5T.

US equities were lower in Thursday trading as stocks ended not far off worst levels. AI capex/ROI scrutiny seemed to be back in play, even as OpenAI walked back comments from yesterday about government guarantees on debt to finance AI infrastructure buildout.

US equities were higher in Wednesday trading, though stocks ended off best levels in a late afternoon slide, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 48bps, 37bps, and 65bps respectively following Tuesday’s big decline. Some note of some skepticism from SCOTUS in today’s oral arguments in the IEEPA tariff case. October’s ADP private payrolls printed at 42K, above consensus, and ISM services came in at 52.4, well ahead of consensus and September's read, hitting its highest headline since February.

US equities were lower in Tuesday trading as stocks ended just off worst levels. Some of today's weakness seemed to be pinned on valuation concerns, flagging comments from Wall Street CEOs at a summit in Hong Kong.

US equities were mixed in Monday trading. Stocks didn’t do much as the market dealt with a number of moving pieces. In macro news, October’s ISM manufacturing missed, with the production index falling into contraction territory.

US equities were mostly higher this week as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq capped off a third-straight weekly gain, though the small-cap Russell 2000 was down for the first time in four weeks. Upside this week was tabbed in large part to positive Big Tech earnings takeaways and more momentum around the AI secular growth narrative. The rally also came despite a modest repricing toward a flatter Fed rate cut path. 

US equities were mostly lower in Thursday trading near their worst levels, although the S&P500 and Nasdaq are both still on pace for weekly gains. Big tech earnings were in focus, highlighting the elevated capex levels that are being seen as crucial for the broader AI trade

US equities finished mostly lower in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones closing down 16bps, the S&P500 flat, and the Nasdaq +55bps. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 bp at their October meeting, with the economic summary noting activity has been expanding at a moderate pace, the labor market had seen slower job gains, but that the unemployment rate has remained low. September pending-home sales were unchanged m/m vs consensus for a 90bps increase. Nvidia extended a big Tuesday rally on Trump comments that he will discuss Blackwell chips in the upcoming meeting with China's Xi on Thursday.

US equities finished mostly higher in Tuesday trading, though came off best levels into the close. There were more headlines about easing US-China trade tensions as the market gets more comfortable with the escalate to de-escalate narrative. There was more strategic M&A today following more than $80B dollars in announced deals on Monday.

US equities finished higher in fairly uneventful Monday trading, ending near best levels. The big focus today was on US-China trade de-escalation after weekend updates about a "framework" deal to avoid the large threatened tariff hike. The peak week of Q3 earnings season is ahead with about 36% of the S&P 500 scheduled to report.