My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

Can AI stocks beat Big Tech? In this episode, I discuss OpenAI and its decision to expand a secondary share sale that lets insiders sell about $10.3 billion of stock at roughly a $500 billion valuation. Although skeptical at first, the calculations reveal there is a path for OpenAI to deliver outsized returns.I cover:(0:00) The $500B question (01:11) Why the Nasdaq Index is the benchmark (03:35) Inside the OpenAI-Microsoft deal (05:50) The bull case: OpenAI’s trillion-dollar path (09:33) The AI market explosion (12:39) The bear case: Competition and constraints (17:13) Exploring the models of tomorrow (20:58) The disruption premium (23:21) Where will OpenAI’s revenue come from? (29:14) The final verdict

This is the single most important paper to come out in tech in recent weeks. Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar and Ruyu Chen investigated whether generative AI is leading to job losses in roles most exposed to AI – and how these effects differ by age and the way AI is used. In this episode, I break down these results and their implications. I covered: (01:17) Key finding (03:32) What’s going on here? (06:13) A canary in the coal mine? (8:21) The dataset studied and why it matters (10:34) The sectors impacted and why it matters (12:37) Why don't firms just reduce salaries? (14:34) Historical parallels with electricity (17:20) How leadership impacts job losses (20:46) Implications for policy, education, equity (24:53) Outro Where to find me: - Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/ - Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ - LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar?originalSubdomain=uk - Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem ----Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1

Nick Thompson, CEO of The Atlantic, led one of the first major content licensing deals with OpenAI in 2024. In this conversation, he joins Azeem to unpack how AI is transforming media – and what that means for every business navigating the shifting economics of attention, trust, and discovery. We cover: (01:49) Journalism’s four horsemen (5:33) The collapse of search (9:07) Cloudflare’s counterattack (13:56) Is this the search-traffic fix? (17:42) Rise of the sovereign creator (22:57) Do great writers need editors? (26:22) Why conservatives win new media (27:17) How Substack drives discovery (31:08) East Coast vs. West Coast ethics (35:11) How Nick uses AI in writing (42:13) Is AI friend or foe to journalism? (45:32) The Atlantic’s survival plan Nick's links: The Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholasxthompson/ Twitter/X: https://x.com/nxthompson Substack: https://nxthompson.substack.com Azeem's links: Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/ Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem ----Produced by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd

At the start of the year, I made seven predictions about how 2025 would unfold. Six months in, it's time to mark my own work. From AI capability breakthroughs to autonomous vehicles, climate extremes to workforce transformation, I examine what I got right, what I missed, and why the 2027-2028 period will be when vertical AI hits the real economy in force.In this episode you’ll hear:The AI wall that never came: Ten-million-token models exist, O3 scores 25% on Frontier Math vs GPT-4's 2%, but some models are inconsistent and overthink problemsWhen bots officially out-talk humans: My modeling shows LLMs crossed the threshold of producing more text than humans sometime this summerThe Waymo vs Uber SF battle: They've beaten Lyft and expanded to New York, but Tesla's Austin robo-taxi fleet changes the competitive landscapeClimate and energy predictions that were "too easy": Record climate extremes, 30% solar growth, and Indonesia's stunning EV jump from 20% to 80% in two yearsWhat I completely missed: The AI capex boom, humanoid robots at Figure/BMW/Amazon, and workforce impact with CEOs reporting 20-50% AI assistanceWhy getting too many predictions right is a problem: I reflect on whether scoring too well means I didn't push boundaries enough in my forecastingThe 2027-2028 turbulence ahead: Why four-year-old AI startups challenging incumbents while early adopters reap deep organizational benefits will create economic turbulenceOur new showThis was originally recorded for “Friday with Azeem Azhar”, a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET. You can tune in through my Substack linked below.The format is experimental and we’d love your feedback, so feel free to comment or email your thoughts to our team at [email protected]’s links:Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar?originalSubdomain=ukTwitter/X: https://x.com/azeemTimestamps:(00:00) Grading my predictions from January 2025(01:23) #1: No AI Wall(03:59) #2: Warp-speed deployment(05:16) #3: Bots out-talk humans(06:24) #4: Waymo overtakes Uber in SF(08:31) #5: Climate extremes intensify(09:09) #6: Solar keeps breaking records(10:06) #7: EVs shift up a gear(11:12) The problem with predicting too accurately(12:01) What I missed(12:14) The CapEx boom around AI(13:56) The rise of humanoid robots(14:36) AI's impact on the workforce(18:40) Looking ahead(18:48) Infrastructure first, apps next(19:52) 2027/2028 will be a "period of fireworks"(21:39) When we'll find out if AI is a bubble(23:02) A question for the futureProduction:Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd

In this episode, I reflect on a whirlwind three-day visit to China - my first in over 20 years. And what I saw was remarkable. The infrastructure puts most of the West to shame. The AI isn't just hype - it's working at serious scale. And the electric vehicles? They're about to steamroll the global auto industry. Here's what really struck me during my whirlwind trip to Beijing and beyond.In this episode you'll hear:Infrastructure built at speed: Beijing's immaculate airport, 300 km/h rail to Tianjin for £17, and pristine expressways that put US infrastructure to shame.Verticalised AI in action: While Chinese labs trail US frontier models and face compute constraints, they're excelling in verticals - profitable robotaxis in Wuhan, healthcare AI analyzing 5.5 billion medical records, and Squirrel AI's $200m education platform that outperforms China's best human teachers.EV cost leadership is set: Chinese electric vehicles are absolutely remarkable. Years of vicious domestic competition have created incredible innovation and cost discipline that will hit European carmakers like a sledgehammer.The air quality transformation: Beijing at 37°C was clean enough for a morning run, thanks to widespread EV adoption.Scale that defies comprehension: Convention centers 100 times the size of Union Square, cities of 20 million people, and AI platforms serving tens of millions of users.Our new showThis was originally recorded for “Friday with Azeem Azhar”, a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET. You can tune in through my Substack linked below.The format is experimental and we’d love your feedback, so feel free to comment or email your thoughts to our team at [email protected]’s links:Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar?originalSubdomain=ukTwitter/X: https://x.com/azeemTimestamps:(00:00) Surprises at the airport(01:21) Immense scale(01:54) 3 areas of interest(02:37) Chinese infrastructure and engineering(03:22) ~180mph train, £17 fare(04:29) Multi-lane expressways built for scale(05:55) Development of AI in china(06:09) China leans into vertical AI(08:12) Apollo robotaxis: unit-cost positive(09:33) Yidu Tech: 5.5B health records(10:35) Squirrel AI outperforms top teachers(14:29) EVs & clean air(16:14) BYD x Octopus: earn by charging(18:30) EV boom improves Beijing air(19:56) Luxury Chinese EV interior(21:08) Closing thoughtsProduction by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd.

Broadcasting live from Paris, I tackle three massive technology stories that are reshaping our digital future. From Apple's stunning interface redesign to the collapse of traditional search advertising, and Sam Altman's vision of an AI singularity that's already begun - this episode captures the tectonic shifts happening in tech right now.I cover:(1:32) WWDC 2025:  Apple’s AI challenges and new UI(6:06) The decline of Google’s ad model(10:08) Sam Altman’s Gentle Singularity essay(19:37) Live audience Q&A(19:45) Is the singularity really about Altman?(22:13) Is France carrying Europe’s AI dreams?(24:58) Are you seeing promising AI hardware?(27:42) How will AI change software pricing?Our new showThis was originally recorded for “Friday with Azeem Azhar”, a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET. You can tune in through my Substack linked below.The format is experimental and we’d love your feedback, so feel free to comment or email your thoughts to our team at [email protected]’s links:Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar?originalSubdomain=ukTwitter/X: https://x.com/azeemProduction by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd.

This week, I'm speaking with Kevin Weil, Chief Product Officer at OpenAI, who is steering product development at what might be the world's most important company right now.We talk about:(00:00) Episode trailer(01:37) OpenAI's latest launches(03:43) What it's like being CPO of OpenAI(04:34) How AI will reshape our lives(07:23) How young people use AI differently(09:29) Addressing fears about AI(11:47) Kevin's "Oh sh!t" moment(14:11) Why have so many models within ChatGPT?(18:19) The unpredictability of AI product progress(24:47) Understanding model “evals”(27:21) How important is prompt engineering?(29:18) Defining “AI agent”(37:00) Why OpenAI views coding as a prime target use-case(41:24) The "next model test” for any AI startup(46:06) Jony Ive's role at OpenAI(47:50) OpenAI's hardware vision(50:41) Quickfire questions(52:43) When will we get AGI?Kevin's links:LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kevinweil/Twitter/X: @kevinweilAzeem's links:Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azharTwitter/X: https://x.com/azeemOur new show:This was originally recorded for "Friday with Azeem Azhar", a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET. You can tune in through Exponential View on Substack.Produced by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd.

Economist and polymath Tyler Cowen challenges Silicon Valley's optimistic projections about AI-driven economic growth. We explore what could slow AI's economic impact, despite its remarkable capabilities – and where humans find the new normal amidst major shifts.Timestamps: (00:00) Episode trailer (01:47)  The problem with Silicon Valley's AI-driven growth projections (06:02) The institutional bottleneck to AI progress (10:49) Markets aren’t pricing in a radical AI future (12:53) Are we heading for a great job displacement? (17:02) Is GDP still worth talking about? (19:11) Who does AI benefit most? (21:11) Will AI cause a human identity crisis? (27:11) The education system’s failure to adapt (35:34) How the Gulf could become a geopolitical powerhouse (39:10)  Could AI change religion? (46:46)  Closing thoughts Tyler's links: Marginal Revolution Blog: https://marginalrevolution.com/ Twitter/X: https://x.com/tylercowen Azeem's links: Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/ Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeemOur new showThis was originally recorded for "Friday with Azeem Azhar", a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET. You can tune in through Exponential View on Substack.Produced by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 LTD

Thomas Dohmke, CEO of GitHub, joins Azeem to explore how AI is fundamentally transforming software development. In this episode you'll hear: (01:50) What’s left for developers in the age of AI? (04:54) How GitHub Copilot unlocks flow state (07:09) Three big shifts in how engineers work today (10:47) Is software development art or assembly line? (15:26) Why developers are climbing the abstraction ladder (19:35) Have we already lost control of the code? (23:15) What it’s actually like to work with AI coding agents (39:35) Welcome to the age of ultra-personalized software(45:37) Building the next-generation web Thomas's links:GitHub: https://github.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ashtom/Twitter/X: https://x.com/ashtomAzeem's links:Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azharTwitter/X: https://x.com/azeemOur new show This was originally recorded for "Friday with Azeem Azhar", a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET. You can tune in through Exponential View on Substack. Produced by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd

Aaron Levie, CEO & co-founder of Box, joins Azeem Azhar to explore how an “AI-first” mindset is reshaping every layer of Box – from product road-maps to pricing – and what that teaches the rest of us about building faster, smarter organisations.Timestamps:(00:00) Episode trailer(02:04) The "lump of labor fallacy" in sci-fi books(07:37) When individual productivity gains don’t translate to teams(12:32) Box’s Friday AI demos(21:23) How agents might redefine 100 years of management science(26:37) A lesson on AI innovation from the early days of Ford(29:52) Sundar Pichai, Satya Nadella, and Sergey Brin are coding again?(35:16) Pricing in a post-AI agent world(38:43) Cheaper tokens, heavier usage: AI’s margin math(43:02) Solving AI’s verifiability problem(48:24) How Aaron uses AI in his personal lifeAaron's links:Box: https://www.box.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/boxaaron/X/Twitter: https://x.com/levieAzeem’s links:Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azharX/Twitter: https://x.com/azeemThis conversation was recorded for “Friday with Azeem Azhar”, live every Friday at 9 am PT / 12 pm ET. Catch it via Exponential View on Substack.Produced by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd