Brussels vs Moscow: The EU risks losing its eastern neighbors

After Donald Trump’s election victory, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is breaking out the Champagne. Germany’s government, meanwhile, is breaking up. In this week’s episode of EU Confidential, we look at how Trump Round 2 is already reshaping European power dynamics. POLITICO editor-at-large Nicholas Vinocur dials in from Budapest, where Orbán is hosting European leaders for a strategy session on transatlantic relations. Then, host Sarah Wheaton hosts two high-ranking German MEPs, Parliament Vice President Katarina Barley and Foreign Affairs Committee Chair David McAllister for a debate about how to respond to Trump — and about the future of German politics.  Finally, as MEPs hold confirmation hearings for the European Commission nominees, the Berlaymont Who’s Who series continues with mini-profiles of Glenn Micallef and  Ekaterina Zaharieva, care of tech reporter Pieter Haeck.  For more on Trump, and how he’ll transform America’s role in the world, check out the Power Play podcast from POLITICO: Trump returns: The whole world is watching. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

For a fresh view of the U.S. election in its final days — and what it means for Europe — this week’s episode of EU Confidential gets a ground-level take from the campaign trail. POLITICO’s Jakob Hanke Vela, usually based in Brussels, has been dispatched to the U.S. to meet voters and cover the campaign from a European perspective. Francesca Chambers, White House correspondent for USA Today, has been hitting the trail with Kamala Harris after covering the Obama, Trump and Biden presidencies.  They join host Sarah Wheaton to analyze the closing arguments of Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, as well as to parse what’s quirky about campaigning in America — and what it has in common with other votes around the EU. (We’re all MAGA on migration now.) We also look ahead to potential ripple effects in Europe: Would another Trump White House be more of the same — or would it be Trump unchained? You can find Jakob’s American dispatches here: https://www.politico.eu/section/dc-decoded/ Further reading: Kamala Harris is warning Polish Americans not to vote for Donald Trump. Many will, by Emilio Casalicchio Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A vote that was supposed to be a slam dunk in favor of the EU turned into a nail-biter: barely 50 percent of Moldovans backed the country’s accession ambitions in last week’s referendum. Does a massive Russian interference campaign of vote-buying and lies explain the result — or is Brussels’ tepid support for Ukraine’s resistance to Russian aggression also to blame? Ahead of a vote with similar stakes in the Republic of Georgia, EU Confidential host Sarah Wheaton is joined by POLITICO reporters who’ve lived and traveled extensively in the region: Eva Hartog, Gabriel Gavin and, dialing in from Kyiv, Veronika Melkozerova.  Next, we listen in on a POLITICO Pro Connect session (usually off the record and invitation- only) with our top policy editors unpacking the Commission’s new “Jenga tower” structure. Policy Editor Joanna Roberts discusses which commissioners have actual power — and which just have fancy titles — with Aoife White, Cory Bennett, Jan Cienski and Douglas Busvine.  The event was part of POLITICO Pro Connect “In Conversation With” series, which you can learn more about here. Further reading: Moldova and Georgia ring alarm bells for the EU, by Gabriel Gavin and Eva Hartog Pro-EU campaign won in Moldova despite ‘unfair fight,’ president says, by Gabriel Gavin The man who bought a country, by Dato Parulava and Eva Hartog Ashes of Our Fathers. Inside the Fall of Nagorno-Karabakh, Gabriel Gavin’s book, will be released in January 2025. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week’s episode of EU Confidential is a show about nothing. As in: Brussels’ endless lame-duck inertia. Sure, there’s still lots of yadda yadda yadda, but no real action coming out of the EU institutions despite multiple global crises (leaders at this week’s EU summit discussed migration, sure, but left Brussels having taken no concrete decisions on how to tackle it). Host Sarah Wheaton dissects the reasons for the hold-up — and why it matters — with POLITICO’s Barbara Moens and Nick Vinocur, as well as with Aaron McLoughlin, a seasoned Brussels lobbyist with deep experience working in the Parliament and the Commission.  Meanwhile, there’s lots happening in the U.S. ahead of the Nov. 5 presidential election. Earlier this week, POLITICO Live and the American Chamber of Commerce to the European Union hosted a debate about what candidates Kamala Harris or Donald Trump could mean for Europe. Facing off: former Republican Congressman Jack Kingston; Finnish MEP Aura Salla; and Bart M.J. Szewczyk, a former State Department official and Biden-Harris campaign insider. We bring you a juicy recap. Finally, our Berlaymont Who’s Who series looks at the unusual political trajectory of Belgium’s commissioner-designate, Hadja Lahbib, and her dual responsibility for crisis management and equality. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Buckle up. This week on the EU Confidential podcast, we’re talking cars. And a looming trade war. European Union countries are split over whether it’s a good idea to take on Beijing and use duties to hit the brakes on China’s booming (and heavily subsidized) electric car industry. At the same time, the EU is trying to shift to greener cars. Seems contradictory? It is. Abigaël Vasselier of the Mercator Institute for China Studies joins POLITICO’s Koen Verhelst and Jordyn Dahl to sort it all out, with host Sarah Wheaton.  Next, POLITICO’s Max Griera brings us inside the dramatic confrontation at the European Parliament with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, along with highlights from his interview with Orbán’s upstart new challenger, Péter Magyar.  Further reading: China’s hit at EU brandy sparks fear of all-out trade war, by Camille Gijs, Koen Verhelst and Judith Chetrit EU countries overcome German resistance to back duties on Chinese EVs – POLITICO, by Koen Verhelst and Hans von der Burchard A trip across Europe in an electric car, one charge at a time, by Jordyn Dahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this week’s episode of EU Confidential, we tackle the complex forces shaping Europe’s future — where political shifts, migration and escalating conflict in neighboring regions are all colliding. As tensions in the Middle East intensify, POLITICO's Opinion Editor Jamie Dettmer reports from Tel Aviv, breaking down the situation on the ground and the prospect of an all-out war in the region. We then shift focus to Austria, where the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) secured a significant election victory on a “Fortress Austria” platform. Host Sarah Wheaton and Theresa Kuhn, professor of modern European history and politics at the University of Amsterdam, discuss what drove voters to the FPÖ and how Austria joins a growing bloc of European Union countries where far-right parties are reshaping the political landscape. What could this mean for Europe’s broader approach to migration? The episode also continues our "Berlaymont Who’s Who" miniseries, with Kathryn Carlson, our financial regulation reporter, introducing Magnus Brunner, Austria's former finance minister, who could soon become the EU’s next commissioner for migration. Plus, our NATO correspondent Stuart Lau sits down for an exclusive interview with former NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. Further reading: Israel sends troops into Lebanon — but its real target is Iran, by Jamie Dettmer Israel risks a long fight in Lebanon, by Jamie Dettmer Israel vows ‘consequences’ for Iran after missile barrage, by Jamie Dettmer NATO’s Stoltenberg has parting words for Europe: Don’t fear Trump, work with him, by Stuart Lau Sorry, Mark Rutte, there’ll be no honeymoon at NATO, by Stuart Lau Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Volodymyr Zelensky has just four months. That’s the time left until U.S. President Joe Biden leaves office. After that, who knows what’s going to happen. And that means uncomfortable questions for the EU, too.  This week’s edition of EU Confidential tracks the Ukrainian president’s recent journey to the U.S. We start off in Kyiv, where POLITICO’s Veronika Melkozerova recounts meeting  Zelensky as he gave reporters a sneak peek of his “Victory Plan.” (Security is tight — even lipstick needs a close check.) Then we unpack his lobbying mission to the White House and the U.N. General Assembly. Jan Cienski, POLITICO senior policy editor; Dave Brown, defense editor at POLITICO US; and Olga Oliker, program director for Europe and Central Asia at International Crisis Group join host Sarah Wheaton to discuss the political and strategic debates playing out in the U.S. and the EU. We also listen in on Suzanne Lynch’s interview with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen. For more, subscribe to POLITICO’s Global Playbook newsletter.  Next, we continue our Berylamont Who’s Who series with mini-profiles of commissioners-designate Raffaele Fitto (Meloni’s man in Brussels) and current EVP Maroš Šefčovič (the EU’s Mr. Fix-it). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Live from Strasbourg… and Paris… and Berlin… and London, it’s EU Confidential. In this week’s episode, we catch you up on a dizzying week of news. We start with the inside dish on Thierry Breton’s high-drama departure from the European Commission, followed by analysis of who’s really in charge now that Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has debuted her new team, with POLITICO’s Marion Solletty and Eddy Wax. Host Sarah Wheaton also sits down with current (and likely future) climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra, and we debut our new series of mini-profiles, Berlaymont Who’s Who, with an introduction to Kaja Kallas, the EU’s next foreign policy chief. And that’s not all: Migration is roiling domestic politics around the bloc. POLITICO’s Hans von der Burchard and Rosa Prince talk about how the left-leaning leaders of Germany and the U.K. are taking cues from the far-right on keeping migrants out. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

While Brussels has been obsessed recently with the “Draghi report,” that’s NOT the topic of this week’s episode. We will, however, discuss WHY Brussels is so besotted. (Spoiler alert: It's because Europe’s economy is broken.) Host Sarah Wheaton talks to POLITICO’s Carlo Martuscelli and Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING Think, about why the EU is falling so far behind big competitors like the U.S. and China; as well as about the political factors that got us here — and are keeping us stuck.  We also check in with POLITICO’s chief EU correspondent, Barbara Moens, about the bottlenecks impeding the new Commission leadership; and with senior correspondent Clea Caulcutt in Paris about French Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s biggest challenge since Brexit. Further readings: Mario Draghi’s plan to fix a broken Europe already looks impossible, by Carlo Martuscelli Europe’s new normal: High energy bills, fading industry and one chance to fix it, by Carlo Martuscelli and Victor Jack Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It’s been a particularly chaotic rentrée for Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. In this week’s episode of EU Confidential, we talk about the mad dash to name the new slate of commissioners, while getting the right balance of politics, geography, gender and expertise. Host Sarah Wheaton is joined by POLITICO’s Chief EU Correspondent Barbara Moens and Policy Editor Joanna Roberts to look at the hot button issues on the agenda and consider how European voters’ call for a rightward shift in June could be reflected in policy — or not.  Also, from the Berlin bureau, Nette Nöstlinger shares the top takeaways from Alternative for Germany’s historic victory in regional elections. And Tech Reporter Pieter Haeck looks at the trend of banning smartphones in the classroom and what Brussels can do to boost kids’ mental health. Further readings: 5 takeaways from Germany’s eastern elections, by Nette Nöstlinger Belgian schools launch crackdown on smartphones, by Pieter Haeck Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices