DHUnplugged #745: The Lag 7

Big changes - lots of year-end market S&P 500 downgrades. Recession and stagflation April - a quick look at some interesting highlights of April (historically) Bill Gates out with a big prediction The Best Deal Ever! (ELON) PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter  Warm-Up - Big changes - lots of year end market S&P 500 downgrades - Recession and stagflation - April - a quick look at some interesting highlights of April (historically) - Bill Gates out with a big prediction - The Best Deal Ever! (ELON) Markets - Corrections happen - Market jumped off the down worst levels on Monday - is worst priced in? - Earnings season starts 4/11 - JPM to report - Year end price targets - lowering - Yields DOWN - Was that the plan all along? OpenAi - OpenAI on Monday announced it had closed its $40 billion funding round, the most ever raised by a private tech company. - The deal values OpenAI at $300 billion, including the new capital. - The round comes to $30 billion from SoftBank and $10 billion from a syndicate of investors. Google Trends - Stagflation - Keyword Search hit highest point in a long time. - Lots of talk about the potential for higher inflation and softer jobs Friday is the UnEmp Report - Expectations are that the rate will tick up from 4.1% to 4.2% - 145-150k people added to the jobs rolls ---- That would till be good numbers. Tariff Day - AKA Liberation Day - April 2nd is the date that the retaliatory tariffs go on- - Facts say you? (I am not a smart man....) --- Between China and Canada, Mexico, estimates that the tariffs would bring in $150 Billion in 2025. - The US Stock market has lost $5.25 TRILLION during the same time - US GDP is $29 trillion annually - what is $150 BILLION going to do? - The U.S. federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2025 is projected to be approximately $1.9 trillion. Reagan - He is revered...ReaganOmics...... - April 25, 1987 -  Radio Address.. - " And today many economic analysts and historians argue that high tariff legislation passed back in that period called the Smoot-Hawley tariff greatly deepened the depression and prevented economic recovery. You see, at first, when someone says, Let's impose tariffs on foreign imports,' it looks like they're doing the patriotic thing by protecting American products and jobs. And sometimes for a short while it works -- but only for a short time. What eventually occurs is: First, homegrown industries start relying on government protection in the form of high tariffs. They stop competing and stop making the innovative management and technological changes they need to succeed in world markets. And then, while all this is going on, something even worse occurs. High tariffs inevitably lead to retaliation by foreign countries and the triggering of fierce trade wars. The result is more and more tariffs, higher and higher trade barriers, and less and less competition. So, soon, because of the prices made artificially high by tariffs that subsidize inefficiency and poor management, people stop buying. Then the worst happens: Markets shrink and collapse; businesses and industries shut down; and millions of people lose their jobs. - https://www.reaganlibrary.gov/archives/speech/radio-address-nation-free-and-fair-trade-4 Something to Consider... - Talk on the street: " Tariffs are a negotiation tactic" (What does that mean anyway) -- Assumption: "US will win the negotiation" - - Has anyone considered: What if it does not? - The thought is that it needs to be "fair" Atlanta GDPNOW - Liked when it looks good - disregarded when looks bad - January 31 initial GDP Forecast for Q was +2.9% - Latest April 1  -3.7%

Inflation - Transitory again.. April 2 dealing approaching! Doctor Copper! Mag 7 = Lag 7 A New Closest to The Pin! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter  Warm-Up - Inflation - Transitory again - End of month - March not so good for US Markets - investors may try to squeeze toward the end - Tariff waves - now there is talk of softening - April 2 is the day - next Wednesday. - A restaurant Chain at ALL-TIME highs.... - Turkey - Market Mayhem - An fun Limerick from a Listener Markets - Doctor Copper! - Mag 7 = Lag 7 - Tesla Woes- Stock bouncing but challenges still remain - March Sadness for Markets... Attention Collectors!  - The New DHUnplugged shirts are finally here! We are going to sell only 6 - the donations received by the end of the month above $250 will get a shirt - Nice white swim/light long sleeve. (The rest are reserved for winners and special occasions) - We will also have the #1 as the first shirt ever out to the public for $1,000. -  Put your address and size in the comments Tariff Day - April 2nd is the date that the retaliatory tariffs go on - Why April 2nd? Why not April 1st?????? --- Worried that is April Fool's day and no one would take them seriously? Copper Prices - 45 year high - What is this? Usually a predictor of the economic conditions - - Seems like a little inflation (China also pumping) - FYI - An average single-family home contains roughly 439 pounds (or 200 kilograms) of copper, primarily in wiring, plumbing, appliances, and hardware Doctor Copper What about Coffee? - Chart - Cents per pound - These increases are driven by climate-related impacts on major coffee-producing countries like Brazil and Vietnam, as well as financial speculation in the market - DOUBLE THE PRICE of last year Coffee Prices Housing Prices - Reports that tariff induced panic is prices of raw materials is pushing prices up - Developers are not going to get behind and this may push prices up - on average $10,000 per new home (at least) Powell on Inflation - Back to Transitory - In his latest speech/commentary last week, he hinted that he believes that the current - During his post-decision press conference last Wednesday, Powell said tariff-induced inflation could be “transitory,” or temporary. - Here we go again! Stagflation Anyone? - Fed sees higher inflation and an economy growing by less than 2% this year - The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee downgraded its collective outlook for economic growth to 1.7%, down from the last projection of 2.1% in December. In the meantime, officials hiked their inflation outlook, seeing core prices growing at a 2.8% annual pace, up from the previous estimate of 2.5%. - In a statement, the FOMC noted the "uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased," adding that the central bank is "attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate." Meanwhile... - The 3-month Treasury rate inverted against the 10-year for a bit earlier this month. - Currently they are locked at the same rate... - This is the Fed's "preferred" measure of the potential for a recession in the future. Boeing - Boeing wins $20-billion contract for Next Generation Air Dominance program - Win comes after Boeing annual loss, strike, other setbacks - On the news, Boeing's shares rise, Lockheed's fall - Lockheed has been plagued by delays in F-35 upgrade - New name of the aircraft? The F-47 ! New-Clear Energy - A nuclear power plant on the shores of Lake Michigan is aiming to make history this fall by becoming the first reactor in the U.S. to restart operations after shutting down to be eventually dismantled.

- Markets still unsettled - Retail spending down - another bankruptcy (but who they blame?) - Consumer frayed A New Closest to The Pin! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter  Warm-Up - Markets still unsettled - Retail spending down - another bankruptcy (but who they blame?) - Consumer frayed - Announcement #1 Closest to the Pin is a good one... - Announcement # 2 New DH Shirts - attention collectors... - March madness - BBall and Markets Markets -Worst month since 2023 - and it is not over - USD is dropping - loss of confidence - Gold - keeps shining - wow what a run! - Revenge of the Dems on Markets? Tesla stock pummeled...(We initiated a new position on this drop - today) - US Stocks  - where is the money going? Attention Collectors!  - The New DHUnplugged shirts are finally here! We are going to sell only 6 - the donations received by this Friday - March 21 above $250 will get a shirt - Nice white swim/light long sleeve. (The rest are reserved for winners and special occasions) - We will also have the #1 as the first shirt ever out to the public for $1,000. -  Put your address and size in the comments Consumer Confidence - The preliminary University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for March experienced a significant drop, falling to 57.9 compared to the Briefing.com consensus of 65.6 and the final reading of 64.7 in February. This marked the third consecutive decline in consumer sentiment. --- A year ago during the same period, the index stood notably higher at 79.4. - Several key factors contributed to this decline. -- The Current Economic Conditions Index decreased from 65.7 to 63.5, down from 82.5 a year earlier. -- Similarly, the Index of Consumer Expectations saw a sharp drop from 64.0 to 54.2, compared to 77.4 a year ago. -- Inflation expectations also played a significant role, with year-ahead inflation expectations climbing from 4.3% to 4.9%, marking the highest level since November 2022. --- Additionally, long-run inflation expectations increased from 3.5% to 3.9%, the largest month-over-month rise since 1993. !--The overarching takeaway from the report was that the decline in sentiment affected various demographic groups across age, income, wealth, political affiliations, and geographic regions, with inflation concerns and policy uncertainty emerging as critical factors behind the drop. Consumer Confidence Private Equity - Time Bomb Twitter post? - Yes, agree PE is getting too mainstream and not a good amount of liquidity - not right for most investors - Is it the next bomb waiting to happen? HANG ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! - Jeremy Siegel is sayibg market could go lower (Tom Lee !!!! We need you!!!!) - Speaking on current market conditions, Siegel pointed to several risk factors that could push stocks lower in the near term. Key concerns include persistently high inflation, Federal Reserve policy decisions, and growing fears of an economic slowdown. While markets have shown resilience in recent months, he believes investors may be overly optimistic about the trajectory of interest rates and economic growth. - “The market has priced in a near-perfect landing,” Siegel said, referencing investor expectations that the Fed will successfully bring inflation down without triggering a recession. - However, he warns that there are still significant headwinds that could derail this outlook. Retail - Forever 21 filed for bankruptcy protection for the second time in six years on Sunday and blamed fast-fashion e-tailers Shein and Temu for its demise. - The retailer's operating company is expected to cease all operations in the U.S. and has already begun liquidation sales at its mor...

What goes up? Uncertainty - that word again! American Exceptionalism - the theme for 2025 that is fizzling out quickly. Back from India - Namaste.... Psychological Indicators. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter  Warm-Up - What goes up? - Uncertainty - that word again! - American Exceptionalism - the theme for 2025 that is fizzling out quickly. - Back from India - Namaste.... - Psychological Indicators Markets - Follow up - "They call it dumb money - ruling again" - how did that turn out? ---- Quantum stocks down 40-50% YTD - Billionaires - kissing the ring and getting rug pulled - TRILLIONS (4) lost in market cap - in the name of what again? (MAGA?) Make America God Awful? - Germany's stock market hits all-time high (even though economy is not doing well) - President Donald Trump marked his 50th day in office on Monday. So far, the stock market is off to its worst start since President Barack Obama's first term in 2009. (Have to go back to Nixon for the next "worst" start comparison) Monday Markets - Worst day for the Nasdaq since late 2022 (-4%) - Tesla plunged 15% - worst day on 5 years (Emperor Elon has new clothes?) Market Update (YTD) - NAS100 down 7% - SPY down 4.5% - SPY Equal Weight down 0.5% - ! Russell 100 Growth Down 10.5% , Russell 1000 Value up 1% - Cruise ships and Airlines - Down 20-30% - Emerging Markets UP 3.5% - European Stocks up 7% - China up 16% - Nat gas up 50% - WTI Crude - Down 7%| - 40% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are off 20% from their recent highs Down from the highs Smacked Stocks Is This the Plan? - Tariffs as negotiating chip? --- How Is that working? - Slashing Government employees and spending --- Is this the Twitter Plan of re-org? - Deregulation? - Tax Cuts? - Bitcoin Reserve (major disappointment?) --- Just the forfeited crypto from criminal or civil asset forfeiture proceedings. - US Sovereign Wealth Fund ---- Are they taking down markets to get better pricing to then prop up? - Rates are Down - but not for a good reason (10Yr @ 4.2%) - - Recession concerns are growing When will Fed step in to save the day? --- Fed has taken harder stance - but they don't have the backbone to stay out of it if markets cave Crypto Check - Not good - Bitcoin - big bump post election and then faded - back to exactly where it was pre-election - ETH - back to levels from Nov 2023 How are the Big Boys doing this year? - Billionaire Index Top Movers.... Billions and Billions Elon Update - TSLA - For seven straight weeks, since Elon Musk went to Washington, D.C. to join the Trump administration, shares in his automaker have declined, closing on Friday at $270.48. It's the longest such losing streak for Tesla in its 15 years as a public company. - Several Wall Street firms this week, including Bank of America, Baird and Goldman Sachs, cut their price targets on Tesla. - Elon was bemoaning how hard it was on him and companies right now....running them "with great difficulty" - President Trump said that in light of this "boycott" of Tesla by the public - he is going out to buy a new Tesla this morning as a sign of support. Quick AI Check - Tech Update - Oracle issued quarterly results on Monday that trailed analysts' estimates, but the company offered bullish comments on its cloud infrastructure segment. - Earnings per share: $1.47 adjusted vs. $1.49 expected - Revenue: $14.13 billion vs. $14.39 billion expected - Revenue increased 6% from $13.3 billion in the same period last year. Net income rose 22% to $2.94 billion, or $1.02 a share, from $2.4 billion, or 85 cents a share, a year earlier

Hot and cold openings - the best of 2024. A real hoot to listen to our antics and shenanigans over the past year or so. What food are they discussing or what hot stock may be on the list? All here on this Best-Of Show, produced by Ryan Rediske! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? The Winner for ORACLE (ORCL) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirt!   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

CPI comes in HOT, PPI not as bad Retail sales - not a happy number for January News on GameStop DOGE is full attack mode (Dismantling) PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter  Warm-Up - CPI comes in HOT, PPI not as bad - Retail sales - not a happy number for January - News on GameStop - - DOGE is full attack mode (Dismantling) - The Winner of the ORCL CTP Markets - The call it dumb money - ruling again - More earnings - driving markets - Buying holding tight - tariffs are not worrisome| - Intel parts up for grabs? Retail Sales - According to reports: Consumers sharply curtailed their spending in January, indicating a potential weakening in economic growth ahead, according to a Commerce Department report last Friday. - Retail sales slipped 0.9% for the month from an upwardly revised 0.7% gain in December, even worse than the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.2% decline. The sales totals are adjusted for seasonality but not inflation for a month in which prices rose 0.5%. - Excluding autos, prices fell 0.4%, also well off the consensus forecast for a 0.3% increase. - A "control" measure that strips out several nonessential categories and figures directly into calculations for gross domestic product fell 0.8% after an upwardly revised increase of 0.8%. Other Economics - In other economic news Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that import prices accelerated 0.3% in January, in line with expectations for the largest one-month move since April 2024. On a year-over-year basis, import prices increased 1.9%. - Fuel prices increased 3.2% on the month, also the biggest gain since April 2024. Food, feed and beverage costs rose 0.2% following a 3% surge in December. - Export prices also increased, rising 1.3%. Back to Work - President Trump was very vocal about people who work from home. Said they they are really not working - “I happen to be a believer that you have to go to work. I don’t think you can work from home. - “Nobody’s going to work from home, they’re going to be going out, they’re gonna play tennis, they’re gonna play golf. They’re gonna do a lot of things—they’re not working.” --- Question: Doesn't President Trump work from home? -----JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon scorned calls from some employees to soften the bank's five-day return-to-office policy in an animated town hall meeting last week, according to a recording reviewed by Reuters. - Employees at the largest U.S. bank have complained on internal message boards and chats about losing hybrid working arrangements, and one group launched an online petition urging Dimon to reconsider. Unions - NOPE - Amazon workers at a facility near Raleigh, North Carolina, overwhelmingly voted against unionizing on Saturday. - Of the 3,276 ballots cast, there were 2,447 votes opposing the union and 829 in favor, according to Carolina Amazonians United for Solidarity and Empowerment (CAUSE), the group seeking to represent workers. The results still need to be certified by the National Labor Relations Board. China - Tariffs of their own - China's finance ministry said Tuesday it will impose 15% tariffs on coal and liquified natural gas imports from the U.S. and 10% duties on crude oil, farm equipment and certain cars, starting Feb. 10. - The tariffs announcement comes as the additional 10% U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports came into effect on Tuesday stateside. Speaking of Tariffs Reciprocal Tariffs - what are they? . Essentially, it's a "tit-for-tat" approach to trade: if Country A charges a 10% tariff on goods from Country B, then Country B will impose a 10% tariff on goods from Country A - President Trump recently signed a memorandum directing...

Wax off Wax On - Waffling - Mr. Miyagi President? Government Cuts - Lots of Bye-Bye Notes. Economics and the latest employment report. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Warm-Up - Wax off Wax On - Waffling - Mr. Miyagi President? - Government Cuts - Lots of Bye-Bye Notes - Economics are in.... People happy and not happy - Musk - let's talk about this .... - Praying for the turtles... Markets - Lots of Tumult  - confusion but still a retail bid - Inflation numbers are not worrying (to some) - Employment Report - CPI Due this week - Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum The Karate Kid: Danielson - Wax On Wax off - Trump 2.0: President Miyagi: tariffs on, tariffs off (used to be called waffling) - Mexico and Canada Tarrifs are postponed for a month after "phone calls" from Trudeau and Sheinbaum - China 10% tariffs and now China retaliates --- Supposedly there is a call set up between Trump and XI in the next few days Economics - ADP: Private sector companies added more jobs than expected in January -- Companies created a net 183,000 jobs on the month, slightly more than the 176,000 in December ---Pay for workers who stayed in their jobs grew at a 4.7% annual rate - BLS Payrolls: 143k Added,  (shy of estimates) ---- URate 4% ----Avg Hourly Earnings kick up to 0.5% MoM - - - UMICH for Feb -  67.8 (DOWN from 70.1 - ISM Serices 52.8, down slightly from prior month Color on Confidence numbers - Lots of concern over the potential for inflation in the UMich report --- Biggest issue is the worry about the tariffs and how they may impact prices Earnings: - The S&P 500 is reporting a 13.2% year-over-year earnings growth rate for Q4 2024, which is the highest growth rate reported in three years - 77% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings above estimates, which is equal to the 5-year average but above the 10-year average - The Financials, Communication Services, Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Utilities sectors are reporting double-digit earnings growth - Starting to seeing some issues in the BIG tech sector - that is why all of a sudden we are also seeing layoffs - expense cutting (although no cuts to cap ex at this point) Earnings - Amazon prelim Q4 $1.86 vs $1.49 FactSet Consensus; revs $187.79 mln vs $187.31 bln FactSet Consensus - AWS segment sales rose 18.9% yr/yr to $28.79 bln - Q4 operating income of $21.2 bln vs prior guidance of $16-20 bln; guides to Q1 operating income of $14-18 bln - Amazon sees Q1 revs $151.0-155.5 bln vs $158.56 bln FactSet Consensus ----Amazon expects $100 billion of capex in 2025 on 'once-in-a-lifetime' AI opportunity More Earnings - Alphabet shares fell more than 9% in after-hours trading Tuesday after the company reported fourth-quarter results that missed on revenue expectations and announced more artificial intelligence investments. - Earnings per share for the Google parent company beat analysts' estimates by two cents. - Revenue: $96.47 billion vs. $96.56 billion expected by LSEG - Earnings per share: $2.15 vs. $2.13 expected by LSEG Even More Earnings - Advanced Micro Devices reported fourth-quarter results on Tuesday that beat Wall Street expectations for sales and earnings, but the stock fell about 5% in extended trading as the company missed estimates in its key data center segment. - Stock kept of falling in the days after too... - Earnings per share: $1.09, adjusted, versus $1.08 expected - Revenue: $7.66 billion versus $7.53 billion --- Clearly this company was way ahead of itself and proposing that they had AI chips that were potentially competitive to NVDA - BUT NOT! Spotify

January is in the books - interesting outcome. Let's work at Costco - wow! Fed is out with their rate plan - not confident in the future Fed Workers getting buyouts PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Warm-Up - January is in the books - interesting outcome - Let's work at Costco - wow! - Fed is out with their rate plan - not confident in the future - Fed Workers getting buyouts - The latest from the Just Kidding department... Markets - Investors Betting Trump will soften his stance on Tariffs - Trump playing chicken on weekends that other countries will bend - Some recovery after last Monday's beating - But the questions is - how long until global upheaval with all of these threats and bashing? Tariffs - Threats to Canada and Mexico - 25% across the board on Canada and Mexico - 10% in China - Blaming immigration, drugs and trade imbalance --- Oil could become an issue with Canada as they send us cheaper (dirty crude) - but several regions could see higher prices by 20% if these tariffs stick - After the close - Trump said at the White House Friday he would 'absolutely' put tariffs on the nation's EU allies. - 'You want the truthful answer or should I give you a political answer?' Trump said when asked about it – underlying his commitment to the issue. He said the tariffs on the EU would be 'very substantial,' without providing details. - Markets closed in the red Friday on this tidbit -------- Follow up - futures and markets off considerably before the open on Monday. 2%+ across the board. Oil UP. -------THEN - A PHONE CALL WITH MEXICO! PAUSE ON RATES FOR A MONTH (10am news) Bitcoin <$97,000 over the weekend, then popped back up -- Again is this supposed to be a alt asset class or it is simply a risk asset now? Musk has the keys - The Trump administration has approved plans to grant Treasury officials affiliated with Elon Musk’s team access to the federal system that handles trillions of dollars in payments, according to two people familiar with the situation. - Senator Warren is apoplectic Tesla also not thrilled - CFO "Over the years we've tried to localize our supply chain in every market, but we are still reliant on parts from across the world for all our businesses," Taneja said. He said the "imposition of tariffs" would "have an impact on our business and profitability." --- Oh and Tesla's earnings were uninspiring. Big drop in sales and profitability ---- HOWEVER - Musk and team promised that a cheaper car will be coming this year and that left the carrot dangling for investors General market update for January - Internal notes - The U.S. markets finished the month on a downturn as news of upcoming tariffs triggered renewed market concerns. January proved to be a volatile month, marked by a record-high closing for the S&P 500®, followed by a steep decline after the release of a new AI model from China caused global turbulence. Despite this, robust earnings reports and strong consumer spending helped the S&P 500 end the month with a 3% gain. - Mid-cap and small-cap stocks outshone their larger counterparts, with the S&P MidCap 400® and S&P SmallCap 600® rising 4% and 3%, respectively. Investors remained cautious due to ongoing uncertainties about Federal Reserve rate cuts and inflation. - Most sectors saw gains in January, with Communication Services, Health Care, and Financials leading the charge. Information Technology was the sole underperformer, declining 3% due to AI-related challenges. - In January, most sectors experienced gains, with Communication Services, Health Care, and Financials at the forefront. The only sector to underperform was Information Technology,

The Impact of Flagrant Braggadociousness Hard rug pull? Tariffs - giving out like candy TikTok Saga continues - with a twist PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Warm-Up - The Impact of Flagrant Braggadociousness - Hard rug pull? - Tariffs - giving out like candy - TikTok Saga continues - with a twist Markets - Deflating Stocks - Thread Pull (Before the rug pull) - Monday Mayhem - S&P 500 down 1.9%, Equal Weighted down 0.35% - DEEPSeek - Tuesday - plenty of buyers stepping in .... - Staples, Banks are in favor all of a sudden... ANNOUNCING a New CTP! $600 Billion Lost Monday - for one company! BIGGEST one day drop ever! Monday Markets - News of a cheap AI model (program/app) from China hit the tape and it pulled the loose string and tech / markets felll apart. - DeepSeek, has more downloads that ChatCPT - DeepSeek's latest app comes just days after Mr. Trump announced a new $500 billion venture with ChatGPT maker OpenAI, Softbank and Oracle, dubbed Stargate, which he touted as ensuring "the future of technology" in the U.S. (Which is higher than anyone could calulate as the actual value- more like $60-$80 billion) - ORCL -13%, NVDA -17%, AMD -7%, ASML - 8%. Nuke power companies getting squashed - NASDAQ 100 down 3.2% - DeepSeek is also catching investors off guard because of the low development costs for its AI app, which Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives pegged at only $6 million. By comparison, OpenAI, Google and other major U.S. companies are on track to invest a total of roughly $1 trillion in AI over the coming years, according to Goldman Sachs. - FWIW - DeepSeek excels in technical tasks like coding and reasoning, while ChatGPT is better for creative writing and conversational tasks - Founder Liang, who had previously focused on applying AI to investing, had bought a "stockpile of Nvidia A100 chips," a type of tech that is now banned from export to China. Those chips became the basis of DeepSeek, an MIT publication reported. - DeepSeek is looking to differentiate from its competitors with its reasoning capabilities, meaning that before delivering the final answer, the model first generates a “chain of thought” to enhance the accuracy of its responses. - Question: Will this shed reality on the AI bubble or just a bump in the road? ---- Lesson: As an investor, be careful of the current administration's hype - we saw this last time and many of the "deals" never got done fully or at all. ---- In addition, DJIA was flying high as staples and other ramping. HD, CRM, JNJ - 10Yr Yield drops to 4.52% Hard Rug Pull - Hard rug pull: The developers have no intention of completing the project and plan to scam investors from the start In the End... - The narrative with switch... Was:  How great all of this as capital spend is going to be great! - Will morph to: No need for capital spend therefore companies will have the benefit of not spending the money! - The usual Wall Street Machine --- Update: That has already started in the background. The idea that this is great as there is more competition AND a layer has been built that can support faster and cheaper build out of this AI ..... One More Thing - Wang (CEO of ScaleAI) said DeepSeek actually has more H100 chips from Nvidia than expected — about 50,000 of them. - At $25,000 a piece that is $1.25 billion. Sooooooo how is it that it took only $6 million to build.. Big Cuts - The Trump administration is offering millions of federal workers the option to accept buyouts through a government-wide "deferred resignation" program if they resign by Feb. 6. - Those who accept the offer will receive pay and benefits through Sept. 30,

Trump-o-Nomics here we come. MemeCoins making s comeback - then fizzling. Pardons and Executive orders are flying. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter  *** California Clean up - Some thoughts and companies... **** Warm-Up - New President - New Leadership - Pardons flying....Even preemptive ones - Another short-seller is out of biz... - Talking bout animal spirits being unlocked as President Trump take office Markets - Coins - on fire (then pull back) - Markets - Moving after last week's CPI print - MemeCoins making a comeback - Pelosi moving stocks ** Need a new symbol for the 1st CTP for 2025 PSA - Quick note - Next week's guest on TDI Podcast - Howard Lindzon - Founder of StockTwits - Follow JCD and AH on Twitter - Listen to No Agenda every week - double the pleasure on Thursdays and Sundays at 2P (ET) Inauguration - Any major takeaways? - Trump wearing a purple tie - that does not seem like an accident - Significant number of executive orders First orders of business--- Energy is key area along with DEI, TWO Genders (only), Temporary pause on China tariffs, National emergency at borders, ending EV mandates - National emergency: Borger, energy - "That national energy emergency will unlock a variety of different authorities that will enable our nation to quickly build again, to produce more natural resources, to create jobs, to create prosperity and to strengthen our nation's national security" - Opening up Alaska: "Alaska is so key for our national security, given its geostrategic location, and it's a crucial place from which we could export LNG not only to other parts of the United States, but to our friends and allies in the Asia Pacific region" - DEI -could now be DOA - Withdrawing from Paris clime agreement - - - The incoming administration plans to review and potentially end what the official described as "discriminatory programs," including environmental justice grants and diversity training initiatives. --- Retaking Panama Canal and plant a flag on Mars -- Do we want to discuss that President Trump did not put his hand on the bible as he was being sworn in? ----EXTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE: For this purpose, we are establishing the external revenue service to collect all tariffs, duties and revenues. It will be massive amounts of money pouring into our treasury coming from foreign sources, the American dream will soon be back and thriving like never before to restore competence and effectiveness to our federal government - Vivek Ramaswamy is out as Elon Musk’s co-leader as he is running for Governor of Ohio Pre-Emtiove Pardons - President Joe Biden on Monday issued preemptive pardons for several family members, citing concerns that they will be targeted by “baseless and politically motivated investigations.” - Biden pardoned his brother, James Biden; James’ wife, Sara Jones Biden; his younger sister, Valerie Biden Owens; Owens’ husband, John Owens; and his other brother, Francis Biden. - “The issuance of these pardons should not be mistaken as an acknowledgment that they engaged in any wrongdoing, nor should acceptance be misconstrued as an admission of guilt for any offense,” Biden said in a press release. --- AND January 6th "Hostages" pardoned Tariffs - Seems that the squeeze is on - 25% on Mexico (MexAmerica) and Canada (CanAmerica) starting Feb 1st. - HOT FLASH - 10% on China starting Feb 1 Musk - Feelings hurt? - Removing of EV mandates - not in his best interest.. Right? - Could it be a swap for more lucrative defense and space contracts? TikTok - Goes dark for a little while over he weekend (Apple, Google remove app and offline on web)